Le Tour 2018 stage 11: Albertville > La Rosière 108,5 km

[Ataraxus]

Re:

Not really related to this stage but Kruijswijk might be a dark horse for a top 5. He has a great recovery and currently just 30-ish seconds behind the third - Valverde.

Krujswiijk needs 200+km stages with more than 5000m of altitude climbing to make a difference to the second tier contenders.
In this Tour there are none of these stages.
The only stage that comes close is the Alpe D'Huez stage on Thursday.

 

[del1962]

How is the timecut calculated today, I think Groenewgen, Cav and Kittel might struggle to make it

 

[yaco]

Teams have to be more aggressive today or Froome/Thomas and Dumoulin will wait for the ITT - More aggressive racing will make Froome and Dumoulin feel their legs after the Giro - Will add having an ITT in stage 20 is wrong - The key ITT should always be between stage 12 and 16.

 

[search]

Re:

How is the timecut calculated today, I think Groenewgen, Cav and Kittel might struggle to make it

it depends on the average speed, but will be something around half an hour.

 

[Forever The Best]

Re:

I don't think we will see anything here outside of the last climb. The only team who can do anything to Sky is Movistar and they are hampered by their climbing depth outside of Mikel, Nairo and Alejandro. Too early to sacrifice for one another. Bardet is overrated (both his aggression and capability), to soon for Nibali etc.

Plus, todays stage doesn't suit Nibali much, it is too short. He'll most likely be in survival mode today.

 

[Cinemaniak]

I expect the Lotto-Jumbo boys to attack in this stage. Both Kruijswijk and Roglic seem to be doing great and they have some good support. Gesink and Tolhoek could set a decent pace or go in the early attack for support.

Roglic looked very relaxed yesterday, but Kruijswijk looks like the better option. Primoz likes it steeper

 

[The Barb]

I’d be staggered if Roglic rode aggressively. This is his first GT with GC ambitions and he’s in a great position with the time trial to come. If he can just follow in the mountains and not blow up then a podium is possible.

 

[Robert5091]

Re: Re:

How is the timecut calculated today, I think Groenewgen, Cav and Kittel might struggle to make it

it depends on the average speed, but will be something around half an hour.

From the rule book - http://netstorage.lequipe.fr/ASO/cycling_tdf/tdf2018-reglement.pdf

Stage 11 is a coefficient 5, so - (get your calculator out)
Coefficient 5 (Very difficult short stages)
The permitted finishing time is calculated according to the winner’s finishing time plus:

• 10% if the average speed is less than or equal to 29 km/h;
• 11% between 29 km/h & 30 km/h;
• 12% between 30 km/h & 31 km/h;
• 13% between 31 km/h & 32 km/h;
• 14% between 32 km/h & 33 km/h;
• 15% between 33 km/h & 34 km/h;
• 16% between 34 km/h & 35 km/h;
• 17% between 35 km/h & 36 km/h;
• 18% over 36 km/h

 

[Kwibus]

Re:

I expect the Lotto-Jumbo boys to attack in this stage. Both Kruijswijk and Roglic seem to be doing great and they have some good support. Gesink and Tolhoek could set a decent pace or go in the early attack for support.

Roglic looked very relaxed yesterday, but Kruijswijk looks like the better option. Primoz likes it steeper

My guess is Kruijswijk is very interesting Alpe D'Huez, but I hope he goes if he feels good and not wait for a day he doesn't know how he feels.
I think he was on his limit yesterday though based on his post stage interviews.

 

[Cinemaniak]

I’d be staggered if Roglic rode aggressively. This is his first GT with GC ambitions and he’s in a great position with the time trial to come. If he can just follow in the mountains and not blow up then a podium is possible.

He doesn't really have GC ambitions. The team goes for Kruijswijk and maybe next year for Roglic. Roglic is pretty much free to do what he wants. He rode aggressively in Slovenia, so yes I won't be surprised.

 

[Laplaz]

Froome to attack. He needs time on Roglic and Dumo after all. Most likely option: D. Martin and Valverde to grab a few seconds at the finish line before a 15 man group.

 

[Pantani Attacks]

LOL @ people thinking Roglic and Dumoulin are a threat to GC

 

[Bolder]

Re:

Froome to attack. He needs time on Roglic and Dumo after all. Most likely option: D. Martin and Valverde to grab a few seconds at the finish line before a 15 man group.

I could see that, although if Thomas is still with him, that could trigger a pretty interesting Sky-on-Sky battle. Would CF really attack in that case? I doubt it. This is where the team dynamics at Sky/Movistar are (hopefully) going to add a little spice.

 

[tobydawq]

I’d be staggered if Roglic rode aggressively. This is his first GT with GC ambitions and he’s in a great position with the time trial to come. If he can just follow in the mountains and not blow up then a podium is possible.

He doesn't really have GC ambitions. The team goes for Kruijswijk and maybe next year for Roglic. Roglic is pretty much free to do what he wants. He rode aggressively in Slovenia, so yes I won't be surprised.

Of course he has. He doesn't hang out with the other GCc riders for fun in the mountains and on the cobbles and he especially does not get almost the whole team to pull panickally for him after having been caught in cross-winds if he didn't harbour GC ambitions.

 

[Cinemaniak]

Re:

LOL @ people thinking Roglic and Dumoulin are a threat to GC

Hasn't Dumoulin proven himself by now?? He's ALWAYS a threat to GC, because he has the ability to avoid bad days and days that he can climb with the best.

I’d be staggered if Roglic rode aggressively. This is his first GT with GC ambitions and he’s in a great position with the time trial to come. If he can just follow in the mountains and not blow up then a podium is possible.

He doesn't really have GC ambitions. The team goes for Kruijswijk and maybe next year for Roglic. Roglic is pretty much free to do what he wants. He rode aggressively in Slovenia, so yes I won't be surprised.

Of course he has. He doesn't hang out with the other GCc riders for fun in the mountains and on the cobbles and he especially does not get almost the whole team to pull panickally for him after having been caught in cross-winds if he didn't harbour GC ambitions.

Hanging on the give the team some options and numbers. The same goes for Thomas.

 

[tobydawq]

Re:

LOL @ people thinking Roglic and Dumoulin are a threat to GC

LOL @ people lolling @ people thinking the best TTers among the good climbers aren't threats on GC...

 

[burning]

I think to reduce boredom, we need stages like this:

Btw, this stage is not a MTT.

 

[TourOfSardinia]

Pozzo FTW

 

[Red Rick]

Are we talking about the same Roglic who was toying with the likes of Martin and Porte in Romandie?

 

[bajbar]

Re:

Are we talking about the same Roglic who was toying with the likes of Martin and Porte in Romandie?

And the one who won Pais Vasco with the biggest margin in more than a decade while fending off the Movistar A-squad all by himself

 

[AlexNYC]

Re:

An interesting argument that Movistar have no choice but to go for it tomorrow if they want to win the Tour: https://www.podiumcafe.com/2018/7/17/17583750/they-must-take-advantage

Good analysis. We'll see if Movistar share the urgency, but unfortunately, it strikes me as very unlikely that even sending one of their 3 GC men in the second to last mountain is going to leave Sky with only 3 riders left 8 kilometers from the finale. I think something like this could only be achieved if other teams are involved as well.

 

[Salvarani]

Re:

LOL @ people thinking Roglic and Dumoulin are a threat to GC

Huh? Both of them in a good position right now.

Dumo has won one GT and finished second in another. If he cracks completely on a stage then so be it.

Roglic been good all season. Will he be able to do it over 3 weeks? Who knows...


Right now they both looking like threats, until proven otherwhise in this race.

 

[ice&fire]

Froome isn't sure to get 1 minute on Thomas today, so he'll ask GVA to go in the break and increase his lead

 

[Salvarani]

Went for a run and did some other exercises before noon for about 2 hours... can with a good conscience lay on the couch and stay in all afternoon

 

[Finn84]

The only real question mark for Dumo is that this is the first time he rides consecutive GTs with GC ambitions. He has never finished two GTs in one year.