Le Tour 2018 stage 11: Albertville > La Rosière 108,5 km

[Ataraxus]

Looks a better profile than today’s stage, MTF hopefully should bring out something... anything?

I don't know... stage 10 had what was effectively almost 15km of 9% climbing as a near MTF type finish but still hardly anything happened.

This type of stage is an exact profile that would be very exciting without a dominating team controlling it, but very boring if there's a dominating team. Sky will cause any attack to be worthless as there are many kms below 5% gradient to reel in any attacks. And if 15km of steep climbing couldn't do anything for the race in stage 10, I don't see how 4km of steep climbing on the MTF will do it here. At this rate, the 1cat + descent finish on stage 16, and stage 19 will be boring AF too because Sky will strangle the racing those days as well.

Mongoose makes a good point ... if the stage was later in the race, depending on the placement, might be a lot better.

I can't believe the GC riders are relying on two hard MTFs, a short steep hilltop MTF, and a short TT to win the race. Only 4 GC days going to happen. This could have been a great route if not for the superdomestiques.

Agree with everything except the last sentence.
Today's stage was a great route and superdomestique irrelevant at the same time.
If any of the big guys had attacked in Romme or Colombiere, the likes of Moscon, Kwitao Poels and maybe Bernal etc. would have disappeared immediately IMO.
The slopes of today were so good, they needed only one big gun attack as a trigger.
Didn't happen unfortunately.

Yes, and then we will have the fight between CF, GT and Quintana & Nibali.

And Dan martin maybe. But that's what most people (some Sky fans included) want.

 

[Amazinmets87]

Re: Re:

After GT who's likeliest to grab yellow?

G. Thomas. Even if he loses time he's not likely to lose much

After GT... Unless your stance is its completely infeasible for anyone other than he to finish the stage in the leaders jersey.

 

[Jacques (7 ch)]

Re: Re:

After GT who's likeliest to grab yellow?

G. Thomas. Even if he loses time he's not likely to lose much

I would suggest: If GvA shows signs of folding early in the stage, all eyes will suddenly be on Thomas, which makes it interesting/ different to what we are used to. I think the GC contenders would be less shy of trying to attack and distance Thomas, as virtual yellow, than if it were the usual situation of Froome as established leader with a dedicated train. How would the Sky train react mid-stage, if that were to happen? Try to stay on the front and pre-empt attacks, as usual? What if Thomas starts to struggle?

 

[Bot. Sky_Bot]

Looks a better profile than today’s stage, MTF hopefully should bring out something... anything?

I don't know... stage 10 had what was effectively almost 15km of 9% climbing as a near MTF type finish but still hardly anything happened.

This type of stage is an exact profile that would be very exciting without a dominating team controlling it, but very boring if there's a dominating team. Sky will cause any attack to be worthless as there are many kms below 5% gradient to reel in any attacks. And if 15km of steep climbing couldn't do anything for the race in stage 10, I don't see how 4km of steep climbing on the MTF will do it here. At this rate, the 1cat + descent finish on stage 16, and stage 19 will be boring AF too because Sky will strangle the racing those days as well.

Mongoose makes a good point ... if the stage was later in the race, depending on the placement, might be a lot better.

I can't believe the GC riders are relying on two hard MTFs, a short steep hilltop MTF, and a short TT to win the race. Only 4 GC days going to happen. This could have been a great route if not for the superdomestiques.

Agree with everything except the last sentence.
Today's stage was a great route and superdomestique irrelevant at the same time.
If any of the big guys had attacked in Romme or Colombiere, the likes of Moscon, Kwitao Poels and maybe Bernal etc. would have disappeared immediately IMO.
The slopes of today were so good, they needed only one big gun attack as a trigger.
Didn't happen unfortunately.

Yes, and then we will have the fight between CF, GT and Quintana & Nibali.

And Dan martin maybe. But that's what most people (some Sky fans included) want.

But of course, yes.

 

[bob.a.feet]

Re: Re:

After GT who's likeliest to grab yellow?

G. Thomas. Even if he loses time he's not likely to lose much

 

[SlickMongoose]

1st GT
2nd GT

He's just that good.

 

[Blanco]

Re:

After GT who's likeliest to grab yellow?

Froome

 

[hfer07]

heavy Headwind as well?

 

[Cookster15]

Last climb doesn't look too difficult. If Dumoulin didn't have Giro in his legs I'd pick him. Looks like a diesel's paradise. Most likely Sky will set the tempo maybe someone in GC group takes a few seconds. It is really just softening up the legs for the Alpe stage.

 

[Son of Amsterhammer]

Re:

Last climb doesn't look too difficult. If Dumoulin didn't have Giro in his legs I'd pick him. Looks like a diesel's paradise. Most likely Sky will set the tempo maybe someone in GC group takes a few seconds. It is really just softening up the legs for the Alpe stage.

Yes if the last one was an HC too, there likely would have been carnage. Still, IF it is raced hard before they get there, I’m sure there will be time gaps (probably smallish).

 

[Mozart92]

100 km? really? ........

 

[Red Rick]

Re:

100 km? really? ........

Wait till you see the Pyrenees

 

[Valv.Piti]

I don't think we will see anything here outside of the last climb. The only team who can do anything to Sky is Movistar and they are hampered by their climbing depth outside of Mikel, Nairo and Alejandro. Too early to sacrifice for one another. Bardet is overrated (both his aggression and capability), to soon for Nibali etc.

 

[Salvarani]

Re:

Last climb doesn't look too difficult. If Dumoulin didn't have Giro in his legs I'd pick him. Looks like a diesel's paradise. Most likely Sky will set the tempo maybe someone in GC group takes a few seconds. It is really just softening up the legs for the Alpe stage.

He been saying he has good legs now tho a couple of stages in a row, whether that is just something he says or if the others have significantly better legs than him is yet to be seen

 

[Escarabajo]

Re:

I have a feeling Sky are ready to arrange the most enclosed and controlled climbing-wise tour ever, such boredom that 2016 and 2017 editions would've started to be remembered like illustrious mountain battles. nairo should attack and give it all just to force froome and thomas go really deep. no expecting any drilling job from valverde and landa, no holding back and no looking over the shoulder, just attack!

I agree. It plays into their hands since GT is not strong in Mountains and Froome has Giro in legs.

 

[Escarabajo]

Re:

100 km? really? ........

I don't need longer if they ride it like today!

 

[Frosty]

Re: Re:

100 km? really? ........

I don't need longer if they ride it like today!

:lol:

 

[spiritualride]

Looks a better profile than today’s stage, MTF hopefully should bring out something... anything?

I don't know... stage 10 had what was effectively almost 15km of 9% climbing as a near MTF type finish but still hardly anything happened.

This type of stage is an exact profile that would be very exciting without a dominating team controlling it, but very boring if there's a dominating team. Sky will cause any attack to be worthless as there are many kms below 5% gradient to reel in any attacks. And if 15km of steep climbing couldn't do anything for the race in stage 10, I don't see how 4km of steep climbing on the MTF will do it here. At this rate, the 1cat + descent finish on stage 16, and stage 19 will be boring AF too because Sky will strangle the racing those days as well.

Mongoose makes a good point ... if the stage was later in the race, depending on the placement, might be a lot better.

I can't believe the GC riders are relying on two hard MTFs, a short steep hilltop MTF, and a short TT to win the race. Only 4 GC days going to happen. This could have been a great route if not for the superdomestiques.

Agree with everything except the last sentence.
Today's stage was a great route and superdomestique irrelevant at the same time.
If any of the big guys had attacked in Romme or Colombiere, the likes of Moscon, Kwitao Poels and maybe Bernal etc. would have disappeared immediately IMO.
The slopes of today were so good, they needed only one big gun attack as a trigger.
Didn't happen unfortunately.

Either the race pace was too hard for anyone to attack successfully, not even a rider in good enough form to win the Tour... or they all played this far too cautiously and are throwing away the race to Sky. While I've seen plenty of awful tactical decisions by the top cyclists over the years, I think the first case is more likely. Are Nibali, Dumoulin etc lying when they say that Sky is making it impossible to attack? As they said post-race today. Sky is performing beyond anything we've seen from US Postal, Mapei, etc... it's like watching a game being played with cheat codes or an OP secret weapon.

Froome might have the best form of all, but I think he's actually significantly weaker than expected. But he needs to be tested every chance they can. If they could have tested him on stage 10 but didn't, they blew it. Because history says Froome may have a bad day but come back in the ITT to win it. If they let him escape the worst days without even being tested... sigh.

There just aren't enough days left to really challenge Sky. Mende (stage 14, 3km at 10%) might actually be a surprising day that wins or loses this bike race, where a rider loses 30-45 seconds unexpectedly... I wish it came a day after rest day rather than two days before it. Stage 17 though is by far the most important, and the one chance that Sky will be too worn out to respond on such a short stage. I don't know when the last time the Tour has had such a hard MTF .... Galibier 2011?

 

[The Barb]

Re: Re:

I have a feeling Sky are ready to arrange the most enclosed and controlled climbing-wise tour ever, such boredom that 2016 and 2017 editions would've started to be remembered like illustrious mountain battles. nairo should attack and give it all just to force froome and thomas go really deep. no expecting any drilling job from valverde and landa, no holding back and no looking over the shoulder, just attack!

I agree. It plays into their hands since GT is not strong in Mountains and Froome has Giro in legs.

Likewise, I agree.

Sky already have the lead over their GC rivals and both Froome and Thomas will pick up more time in the final time trial (except over Dumoulin and Roglic, if they are indeed GC contenders) so they just need to suffocate the race until then, which their team is built to do.

And there's precious little Movistar or anyone else can do about it. A long range attack will be gradually reeled in by the Sky Train and ultimately be self destructive.

So, it should be another breakaway stage today (I think the GC guys will want to win tomorrow). Barguil is the obvious, although it remains to be seen whether he is at the same level as last year. I prefer Navarro, Caruso and Van Garderen.

 

[muppetkokken]

One of the things I notice is that Brailsford is always on the "the riders know there is one more week left". I think this is quite right and a major contributor to the lack of attacks on both Sky and Movistar.

Yes, it is one more week after this - but if you actually want to challenge for the yellow jersey you have to be able to attack in both the second and third week, And not just up one mountain... It would be a lot more fun to watch as well.

 

[Durden93]

Rosiere isn’t difficult enough to be decisive. Movistar (and others) need to blow this apart early.

 

[Robert5091]

27 riders in the break in June, when G beat Martin, Bardet & A.Yates up the last climb. Fast tempo & AG2R tried in June but now with the Sky A team ... Hope M-Scott try for Yates otherwise it could be a repeat of today.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

An interesting argument that Movistar have no choice but to go for it tomorrow if they want to win the Tour: https://www.podiumcafe.com/2018/7/17/17583750/they-must-take-advantage

 

[Rollthedice]

Re:

An interesting argument that Movistar have no choice but to go for it tomorrow if they want to win the Tour: https://www.podiumcafe.com/2018/7/17/17583750/they-must-take-advantage

Send the link to Unzue.

 

[Frosty]

Surely some teams must think that a Froome with a Giro in his legs is more beatable than, say, a Froome next year who may not have done the Giro and is coming into it fresher? I had been wondering myself about the idea of sending Valverde ahead tomorrow, maybe a few other teams might want to attack early to try and break Sky up/tire out the domestiques.