Le Tour 2018 stage 16:Carcassonne - Bagnères-de-Luchon 218km

[Bardamu]

Re: Re:

I think this stage is very badly designed. It's an obvious breakaway stage, but the flat start makes it a lot more random who's gonna make it into the break. Still, I'd expect strong teams like Quickstep, Scott and Bora to make sure that Alaphilippe, Yates and Majka gets into the break. Nieve will probably be there as well, and the winner should be one of these four with Yates being my favorite to take the stage win. Other breakaway artists we should/might see in the break include Ion Izagirre, Pozzovivo, Barguil, Caruso, De Gendt, Mollema, Calmejane, Soler, Navarro, Roland, Martinez and Fraile.

I guess Valverde will want to be in that break too, one of his last chances for a stage, plus he could be useful if by some miracle Landa or Quintana drop the Sky train...

Only way to break the Sky train is by making them work hard the whole day. Movistar should send Quintana and Valverde in the breakaway, Astana should send Fuglsang. LottoJumbo should send Kruijswijk again.

 

[Anderis]

Re: Le Tour 2018 stage 16:Carcassonne - Bagnères-de-Luchon 2

One thing is sure. Bora will try to get Majka to break. The ideal stage for him to win from a break.

The ideal stage for Majka doesn't end with a descent.

 

[yaco]

I suspect stage 16 will be a GC day, while stage 17 should be a breakaway day despite its shortness.

 

[Laplaz]

Re:

I suspect stage 16 will be a GC day, while stage 17 should be a breakaway day despite its shortness.

I'm expecting the opposite. Tomorrow no team will control the break...

 

[Avoriaz]

Re: Re:

There is a high possibility of rain in the last hour, bad for G.

Why is rain bad for G, he has some of his best performances in rain

Slippery descents, and he's not the best descender. Dumo and Bardet will test him.

Everybody always assumes Bardet is a great descender. If you watch him, he actually isn't. He's barely in control. He may be fearless but he is more likely to come to grief

 

[del1962]

Re: Re:

There is a high possibility of rain in the last hour, bad for G.

Why is rain bad for G, he has some of his best performances in rain

Slippery descents, and he's not the best descender. Dumo and Bardet will test him.

As long as Majka or Barguil aren't around G he will be fine on descents

 

[Matteo.]

i expect Tom to attack in the descent. pretty sure

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Hm I don't know, I expect him to save a lot for the 61km stage. Sunweb sees that stage as a 61km ITT.

 

[wheresmybrakes]

Re:

Hm I don't know, I expect him to save a lot for the 61km stage. Sunweb sees that stage as a 61km ITT.

If that is the case then he will be TTT'ing with Froome and G, dropping everyone else and having a reduced bunch sprint at the end.

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

Hm I don't know, I expect him to save a lot for the 61km stage. Sunweb sees that stage as a 61km ITT.

If that is the case then he will be TTT'ing with Froome and G, dropping everyone else and having a reduced bunch sprint at the end.

I just hope that stages is an utter failure cause I don't want more of that garbage.

It's the stain on Contador's legacy, giving the ASO the idea that EHRMAGHERD SHORTA IS BETTA

 

[wheresmybrakes]

Re: Re:

I think this stage is very badly designed. It's an obvious breakaway stage, but the flat start makes it a lot more random who's gonna make it into the break. Still, I'd expect strong teams like Quickstep, Scott and Bora to make sure that Alaphilippe, Yates and Majka gets into the break. Nieve will probably be there as well, and the winner should be one of these four with Yates being my favorite to take the stage win. Other breakaway artists we should/might see in the break include Ion Izagirre, Pozzovivo, Barguil, Caruso, De Gendt, Mollema, Calmejane, Soler, Navarro, Roland, Martinez and Fraile.

I guess Valverde will want to be in that break too, one of his last chances for a stage, plus he could be useful if by some miracle Landa or Quintana drop the Sky train...

Only way to break the Sky train is by making them work hard the whole day. Movistar should send Quintana and Valverde in the breakaway, Astana should send Fuglsang. LottoJumbo should send Kruijswijk again.

I can't see SKY letting Quintana up the road, if he stays away that's another contender for podium/win in contention. Valverde is getting more and more like Contador these days in the mountains. He'll be let go as he's not threat.

 

[SKSemtex]

Re: Le Tour 2018 stage 16:Carcassonne - Bagnères-de-Luchon 2

One thing is sure. Bora will try to get Majka to break. The ideal stage for him to win from a break.

The ideal stage for Majka doesn't end with a descent.

You are right. :lol: But still better than the last stage

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Re: Re:

I think this stage is very badly designed. It's an obvious breakaway stage, but the flat start makes it a lot more random who's gonna make it into the break. Still, I'd expect strong teams like Quickstep, Scott and Bora to make sure that Alaphilippe, Yates and Majka gets into the break. Nieve will probably be there as well, and the winner should be one of these four with Yates being my favorite to take the stage win. Other breakaway artists we should/might see in the break include Ion Izagirre, Pozzovivo, Barguil, Caruso, De Gendt, Mollema, Calmejane, Soler, Navarro, Roland, Martinez and Fraile.

I guess Valverde will want to be in that break too, one of his last chances for a stage, plus he could be useful if by some miracle Landa or Quintana drop the Sky train...

Only way to break the Sky train is by making them work hard the whole day. Movistar should send Quintana and Valverde in the breakaway, Astana should send Fuglsang. LottoJumbo should send Kruijswijk again.

Quintana in the break won't work. Valverde in the break for a stage win would be fine, but I don't think he/Movistar wants that and honestly I don't even think that Valverde has the legs to win a stage at the moment.

 

[movingtarget]

Re:

Hm I don't know, I expect him to save a lot for the 61km stage. Sunweb sees that stage as a 61km ITT.

The short stage is the danger stage for Dumoulin I think but with 38 kms of climbing that would be some time trial. But of course it all depends on his opposition. Quintana and Landa should just attack from the start to remind people they are in the race. Maybe Yates as well. He has nothing to lose. But if Roglic gains some time and Thomas loses some it's going to be a fun TT.

 

[SKSemtex]

Re:

Hm I don't know, I expect him to save a lot for the 61km stage. Sunweb sees that stage as a 61km ITT.

second TTT

 

[Broccolidwarf]

Will any GC captains have character, to try already on Col de Menté, with riders out in front waiting for them?

Looking at the time gaps on the GC, Fuglsang, Martin, Valverde, Jungels & Zakarin should.

Time to see who has heart and who doesn't

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Re: Re:

Hm I don't know, I expect him to save a lot for the 61km stage. Sunweb sees that stage as a 61km ITT.

The short stage is the danger stage for Dumoulin I think but with 38 kms of climbing that would be some time trial. But of course it all depends on his opposition. Quintana and Landa should just attack from the start to remind people they are in the race. Maybe Yates as well. He has nothing to lose. But if Roglic gains some time and Thomas loses some it's going to be a fun TT.

That's funny. Sunweb seem to think the short stage is the biggest opportunity for him.

 

[yaco]

Re: Re:

I suspect stage 16 will be a GC day, while stage 17 should be a breakaway day despite its shortness.

I'm expecting the opposite. Tomorrow no team will control the break...

It's next to impossible to control a high octane 64km stage - This has to be a breakaway day.

 

[yaco]

Re: Re:

Hm I don't know, I expect him to save a lot for the 61km stage. Sunweb sees that stage as a 61km ITT.

The short stage is the danger stage for Dumoulin I think but with 38 kms of climbing that would be some time trial. But of course it all depends on his opposition. Quintana and Landa should just attack from the start to remind people they are in the race. Maybe Yates as well. He has nothing to lose. But if Roglic gains some time and Thomas loses some it's going to be a fun TT.

My understanding is Yates is targetting this stage after unsuccessfully missing the break in the last two days.

 

[loge1884]

@movingtarget

+ Quintana and Landa should just attack from the start to remind people they are in the race +

when did you last see Quintana "attack from start" in a GT? .... I can't remember having seen him attacking (full throttle) at all in LE TOUR since 2013 .... usually just wheelsucks and in the end get's dropped (only losing a few seconds, but still ...)

 

[ruamruam]

Re: Re:

Hm I don't know, I expect him to save a lot for the 61km stage. Sunweb sees that stage as a 61km ITT.

The short stage is the danger stage for Dumoulin I think but with 38 kms of climbing that would be some time trial. But of course it all depends on his opposition. Quintana and Landa should just attack from the start to remind people they are in the race. Maybe Yates as well. He has nothing to lose. But if Roglic gains some time and Thomas loses some it's going to be a fun TT.

That's funny. Sunweb seem to think the short stage is the biggest opportunity for him.

It has the potential to be both.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

I don't see stage 17 as a breakaway stage. Sky will go full throttle to set up Froome for a Giro-like performance. Tomorrow's stage is a breakaway stage though.

 

[Oliwright]

Re: Le Tour 2018 stage 16:Carcassonne - Bagnères-de-Luchon 2

Froome, as the greatest GC rider of his generation, isn't going to sit back and let Dumoulin take 2nd because he didn't want to harm Thomas.

Chris will attack and G will follow TD. If Chris doesn't gain on TD on stage 17, he'll attack on stage 19.
Also worth bearing in mind that Froome might have won on Alpe d'Huez has the motorbike not blocked his biggest attack.

Froome isn't currently thinking about G as TD is virtually 2nd on GC and he's 3rd.
The difference between 2011,2012 & now, is that in those years Froome was undoubtedly stronger than Wiggins. Yet in this race Thomas has been stronger so far, hence why Chris isn't angry or frustrated.

As they've said today, they'll let the legs decide who wins between them, but at the moment they have to focus on TD & Roglic.

 

[Leinster]

Re:

@movingtarget

+ Quintana and Landa should just attack from the start to remind people they are in the race +

when did you last see Quintana "attack from start" in a GT? .... I can't remember having seen him attacking (full throttle) at all in LE TOUR since 2013 .... usually just wheelsucks and in the end get's dropped (only losing a few seconds, but still ...)

Didn’t he try to go with Contador in the 110km stage last year? Then he sat up when he thought Contador was going too fast.

Will any GC captains have character, to try already on Col de Menté, with riders out in front waiting for them?

Looking at the time gaps on the GC, Fuglsang, Martin, Valverde, Jungels & Zakarin should.

Time to see who has heart and who doesn't

Since he attacked yesterday with nobody in the break to wait for him, I think we can take it as a given that if Martin feels he has the legs at any point tomorrow, he will attack.

 

[Tim Booth]

Re: Le Tour 2018 stage 16:Carcassonne - Bagnères-de-Luchon 2

The Tour de France prohibits smoke flares - fans could be arrested if they fail to comply with the order.