Le Tour 2018 stage 16:Carcassonne - Bagnères-de-Luchon 218km

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

@movingtarget

+ Quintana and Landa should just attack from the start to remind people they are in the race +

when did you last see Quintana "attack from start" in a GT? .... I can't remember having seen him attacking (full throttle) at all in LE TOUR since 2013 .... usually just wheelsucks and in the end get's dropped (only losing a few seconds, but still ...)

Didn’t he try to go with Contador in the 110km stage last year? Then he sat up when he thought Contador was going too fast.

Will any GC captains have character, to try already on Col de Menté, with riders out in front waiting for them?

Looking at the time gaps on the GC, Fuglsang, Martin, Valverde, Jungels & Zakarin should.

Time to see who has heart and who doesn't

Since he attacked yesterday with nobody in the break to wait for him, I think we can take it as a given that if Martin feels he has the legs at any point tomorrow, he will attack.

Quintana joined Contador on his long range attack to Foix last year, and he also tried to go with him on the Croix de Fer, but there he got dropped by Contador quite quickly.

 

[Robert5091]

Re: Le Tour 2018 stage 16:Carcassonne - Bagnères-de-Luchon 2

Tune in for sprint & finish, otherwise ... could be breakaway day & not much else - hope not!

 

[yetiyeti]

The most likely scenario is that a break goes, with no contenders in it, and Sky controls the tempo of the leaders' group. But something big could happen on any given day - this tour is not over. Thomas has proven in the past that he could have a bad day and that he's pretty adept at crashing. Froome isn't immune to crashes either, and only has a small margin over Dumoulin. I just want to see some challenges along the way. Moscon leaving the race makes Sky a little more vulnerable I suppose, but they'll still have the strongest support for their leaders even a man down.

 

[Flamin]

By the looks of it, there could actually fall some raindrops in the afternoon. Please let it happen.

 

[Jungle Cycle]

tomorrow is the same finish as 2016 when Froome attacked from the top, right? and that result in 13seg difference, so i doubt gc's will care to try. i hope they'll go hard tempo to make even harder to domestiques the next day..
is rain a possibility?
Yates ftw..
hope Movi will go bzerke from the gun on #17 even if end up in hole lot of nothing...

 

[Leinster]

Re:

tomorrow is the same finish as 2016 when Froome attacked from the top, right? and that result in 13seg difference, so i doubt gc's will care to try. i hope they'll go hard tempo to make even harder to domestiques the next day..
is rain a possibility?
Yates ftw..
hope Movi will go bzerke from the gun on #17 even if end up in hole lot of nothing...

No, same town, but coming in from a different side. Froome’s attack was on the descent of the Peyresourde, which will be the first climb out of Luchon on #17.

 

[Jungle Cycle]

Re: Re:

tomorrow is the same finish as 2016 when Froome attacked from the top, right? and that result in 13seg difference, so i doubt gc's will care to try. i hope they'll go hard tempo to make even harder to domestiques the next day..
is rain a possibility?
Yates ftw..
hope Movi will go bzerke from the gun on #17 even if end up in hole lot of nothing...

No, same town, but coming in from a different side. Froome’s attack was on the descent of the Peyresourde, which will be the first climb out of Luchon on #17.

thanks,
is it harder? more technical(+wet)?

 

[Bolder]

Re: Re:

There is a high possibility of rain in the last hour, bad for G.

Why is rain bad for G, he has some of his best performances in rain

Slippery descents, and he's not the best descender. Dumo and Bardet will test him.

Everybody always assumes Bardet is a great descender. If you watch him, he actually isn't. He's barely in control. He may be fearless but he is more likely to come to grief

Disagree. He can gain time on most riders on a descent, and I can't recall the last time he crashed on one. Not to say that he hasn't but I can't think of a critical instance. On the other hand, it doesn't help him that much because he's pretty easy to pull back on the flats.

However, regarding Bardet -- I suspect he's targeting stage 17. Don't see any other way for him to take back a lot of time and tbh I think his tour is pretty much over so why not try a long range attack? For him finishing fifth at 6 minutes back is pretty much the same as 20th at 13 minutes back

 

[tobydawq]

Re: Re:

There is a high possibility of rain in the last hour, bad for G.

Why is rain bad for G, he has some of his best performances in rain

Slippery descents, and he's not the best descender. Dumo and Bardet will test him.

Everybody always assumes Bardet is a great descender. If you watch him, he actually isn't. He's barely in control. He may be fearless but he is more likely to come to grief

Disagree. He can gain time on most riders on a descent, and I can't recall the last time he crashed on one. Not to say that he hasn't but I can't think of a critical instance. On the other hand, it doesn't help him that much because he's pretty easy to pull back on the flats.

Yeah, I think the other post was pretty strange. He doesn't crash and rides faster than the others = he's a good descender. He has proven it many times the past couple of years (Dauphiné 2016, stage 19 of the Tour 2016, stage 9 of the Tour 2017 (Mont du Chat)).

 

[Oude Geuze]

I agree with the consensus here, GC to ride decent tempo to expose the fatigued and soften legs for stage 17, but I don’t think there will any big attacks. No one will risk paying for a big effort on a 61k mountain time trial.

 

[Oude Geuze]

Who will suffer the effects of a rest day though?

 

[Rollthedice]

Bardet says he's ready to roll the dice.

 

[Salvarani]

Re:

Bardet says he's ready to roll the dice.

Good, we need as many as possible making the race hard and difficult to control

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

Bardet says he's ready to roll the dice.

Not really believing that, I still cant grasp why he didnt attack last year in the Massif Central.

 

[markene2]

Rogla will claw back some time tomorrow

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Re:

Rogla will claw back some time tomorrow

I actually hope he and Dumoulin attack in the descent (both great downhill) and gain like 30/40 seconds. Before the TT it would be great if it's like 1 Froome 2 Thomas +15s 3 Roglic +20s 4 Dumoulin +25s

 

[search]

Re: Re:

Rogla will claw back some time tomorrow

I actually hope he and Dumoulin attack in the descent (both great downhill) and gain like 30/40 seconds. Before the TT it would be great if it's like 1 Froome 2 Thomas +15s 3 Roglic +20s 4 Dumoulin +25s

if you mean "good" in terms of having a close race for the win, I think those two Sky guys need way more time to stay in touch

 

[Escarabajo]

Re:

Who will suffer the effects of a rest day though?

The only way they can cause mayhem is attacking from far away and doing suicide attacks. Otherwise they have no chance against Sky train on last climbs. And that's if they can get away.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Re: Re:

Rogla will claw back some time tomorrow

I actually hope he and Dumoulin attack in the descent (both great downhill) and gain like 30/40 seconds. Before the TT it would be great if it's like 1 Froome 2 Thomas +15s 3 Roglic +20s 4 Dumoulin +25s

if you mean "good" in terms of having a close race for the win, I think those two Sky guys need way more time to stay in touch

No I don't believe so. It's the end of a 3 week hard race time trial. Way different. I think they'll be closer than normal.

A fit Dumoulin would roflstomp the opposition on such a course. A tired and fatigued Dumoulin would be much less powerful. Even beatable. (although this time trial really is his IDEAL course)

 

[Red Rick]

It's not like the rest isn't tiring.

And +1 for roflstomping

 

[Martinstranger]

Re: Re:

Bardet says he's ready to roll the dice.

Good, we need as many as possible making the race hard and difficult to control

Lets see - I hope somebody is ready to roll the dice At least that is my hope and sometimes I wonder how many bad days Froome have had in his tour years :surprised:

But what about stage 17 - what will the procedure be with "starting grid"?
As I understood it long ago, they would have the riders go 20 at the time according to their position in the GC and with a delay between the groups. Tried to search for information, but couldn't find anything about a delay. Or will they just start in the GC order and then hope somebody will go all in?
I'm asking because this could influence who wants to be in the top 20 GC - will Sky do all they can to get bernal among the first 20, then they will have to do something.

About stage 16, I think some of the fallen favourites will try to do something on Col de Mente. That means Astana will send people out in front, hopefully Dan Martin will do the same and of course Movistar if there is a possibility for something. They will be blended with lucky riders who wants to go for the stage, it will probably be the kinds of Majka.

 

[JosephK]

Re:

Froome to do a Froome and gain 3 minutes.

LOL. You know it's coming, sooner or later, this week.

 

[Leinster]

Re: Re:

Froome to do a Froome and gain 3 minutes.

LOL. You know it's coming, sooner or later, this week.

It usually comes on the first mountain stages, though, and he’s usually hanging onto Poels’ wheel for dear life in week 3. Only his Giro win hasn’t followed this pattern. And we don’t know how deep he’s had to go to get to this point.

 

[Rollthedice]

Re: Re:

Froome to do a Froome and gain 3 minutes.

LOL. You know it's coming, sooner or later, this week.

Plan G from outer space will not let him steal his Tour.

 

[Pricey_sky]

Re: Re:

Froome to do a Froome and gain 3 minutes.

LOL. You know it's coming, sooner or later, this week.

It usually comes on the first mountain stages, though, and he’s usually hanging onto Poels’ wheel for dear life in week 3. Only his Giro win hasn’t followed this pattern. And we don’t know how deep he’s had to go to get to this point.

If we go by the pattern then In fairness by week 3 Poels is usually one of the top 3 climbers in the race, and in his last 3 GT’s Froome has been one of the best on the final mountain stages.

I expect him to try something here. Others attacking could help him as well.