Le Tour 2018 stage 18:Trie-sur-Baïse - Pau 171km

[Zinoviev Letter]

Re:

I'm really hoping the break can make it. Sagan apart, none of these second-tier sprinters deserve to win a stage (Demare especially).

Given Sagan's questionable condition, I doubt Bora will want to work to bring it back and it may be an opportunity for a couple of Bora riders to go stage hunting (Oss, Bodnar, Postlberger all good long shot chances).

Good point. Bora have by far the most horsepower of any of the remaining sprinters teams. If Sagan is too battered to want a sprint, they don’t have a traditional lead out man to use instead, so going on the attack makes more sense. If only FDJ and UAE are seriously interested in forcing a sprint, a break could actually be dangerous.

 

[movingtarget]

Demare's legs should feel like piano wire. Martin to attack on the Cat 4 climb. Daryl Impey for a surprise win.

 

[Leinster]

This stage basically falls in the same place as the stage won from the break by Boassen Hagen last year. So expect EBH, Colbrelli, Stuyven, gva etc to be in the 30-man break, and Valgren to take the honours, 25 minutes before the yellow jersey group.

 

[Koronin]

Re:

This stage basically falls in the same place as the stage won from the break by Boassen Hagen last year. So expect EBH, Colbrelli, Stuyven, gva etc to be in the 30-man break, and Valgren to take the honours, 25 minutes before the yellow jersey group.

Cobrelli, that's who I forgot as a sprinter who is still in the race.
GVA is just over 30 minutes down so unlikely they'd get 25 minutes. Most likely not more than about 15 tops.

 

[SHAD0W93]

GVA or EBH to win. Froome to drop more time to seem like he is fatigued. Demare to finish the stage solo again.

 

[Amazinmets87]

Re:

GVA or EBH to win. Froome to drop more time to seem like he is fatigued. Demare to finish the stage solo again.

Where do you see Froome dropping time?

 

[jsem94]

Re:

froome to go in the break and win by 2 hours

Cocaine is a helluva drug

 

[SKSemtex]

Re: Re:

I'm really hoping the break can make it. Sagan apart, none of these second-tier sprinters deserve to win a stage (Demare especially).

Given Sagan's questionable condition, I doubt Bora will want to work to bring it back and it may be an opportunity for a couple of Bora riders to go stage hunting (Oss, Bodnar, Postlberger all good long shot chances).

Good point. Bora have by far the most horsepower of any of the remaining sprinters teams. If Sagan is too battered to want a sprint, they don’t have a traditional lead out man to use instead, so going on the attack makes more sense. If only FDJ and UAE are seriously interested in forcing a sprint, a break could actually be dangerous.

I think they will have to do some babysitting job next two stages.
Sagan can feel quite OK now but if there will be some crosswind, another crash he might need some army to get to finish on time.

 

[The Barb]

Since the winner could be someone totally random, I'll throw out Jack Bauer (250-1) to get what would be the first individual stage win by a New Zealander.

He's had some pretty bad luck at the Tour:

2013 - Put face through barbed wire fence.
2014 - Came desperately close to stage win when swallowed up by peloton in last few metres.
2015 - Broke hip.
2017 - Punched by Bouhanni. Held form well late in race (11th in final time trial).

He's now 33 years old so won't get many more chances, and of course has no team leader or sprinter obligations so can ride for himself. Would like to see him do well.

 

[SHAD0W93]

Re: Re:

GVA or EBH to win. Froome to drop more time to seem like he is fatigued. Demare to finish the stage solo again.

Where do you see Froome dropping time?

Anywhere to look like he is fatigued so no one expects him destroying the others Friday or Saturday.

 

[Robert5091]

So what's happened to the usual cyclist/moto crash? Have ASO finally got fed up and done something about it?

 

[yaco]

Bauer is struggled throughout the TDF, so it will be a major surprise if he features in the finish.

 

[Oliver]

This one is for Jasper Stuyven!

 

[AQETUYIOI]

Re:

So what's happened to the usual cyclist/moto crash? Have ASO finally got fed up and done something about it?

Plenty of close calls.

 

[rick james]

Re: Re:

froome to go in the break and win by 2 hours

Cocaine is a helluva drug

 

[glassmoon]

Demare winning anything post Alps/Pyrenees would be a farce...

 

[loge1884]

Re:

What sprinters do we have left? Sagan (injured), Demaure, who is going to have a hard time making it over that tiny climb at the end, Kristoff and Dagenkolb. After that we would get Terpsra, Alaphilippe, Dan Martin and Valverde. So this is going be our field sprint: Kristoff, Dagenkolb, Terpstra/Alaphilippe, D Martin and Valverde? For that matter that may also be our sprinters for Paris on Sunday? Please let me know if I've missed a sprinter who is still in the field?

Triple A sprinters: all gone

Double A sprinters: Démare, Kristoff, Sagan (battered & bruised state not tested yet)

Single A sprinters: Colbrelli, Cort-Nielsen, Degenkolb, vanAvermaet

BBB-sprinters: Bennati, Boasson Hagen, Dupont, Durbridge, Richeze, Stuyven

 

[Laplaz]

Stuyven or Küng would deserve a win here. And Naesen.

 

[vladimir]

Christophe Laporte will win today and on Sunday!

 

[mortand]

Laporte winning would be a beautiful way to celebrate the 10 years and one day anniversary of the latest Cofidis TdF stage win. If anyone can do it, it's Laporte

 

[Finn84]

Re:

froome to go in the break and win by 2 hours

In all, here's even more ridiculous scenario.

Froome goes to solo break and succeeds. Demare dominates the bunch sprint by such a margin that he will get his own time and rest of the bunch own. The time cut happens to be in that gap between Demare and the bunch.

 

[Broccolidwarf]

Interesting stage today.

If Sagan is not feeling well enough to sprint, Bora is not going to control the break - so who is?

FDJ will try to control it for sure - but are they strong enough?

Will UAE invest in it, with the important stage tomorrow coming up or send guys in the break?

Will Astana or Bahrain fancy Cort or Colbrelli in a bunch sprint, or send riders in the break instead?

A lot of teams have no sprinter, no stage win and no chance tomorrow, so today is their last chance.

I think the first 50+ k will be hard fought, and a big break (10-20 riders) finally getting away on the first categorised climb..... and FDJ failing to control it.

If Sagan is feeling ok, it's a different matter entirely.... Bora is strong enough to control a break.

 

[Oliver]

Re:

Stuyven or Küng would deserve a win here. And Naesen.

Would be nice Naesen can have his own chance finally. Bardet's Tour is over so... But i doubt :sad:

 

[del1962]

Top ten on GC without Crashes Mech (including penalty) and without TTT

Thomas 0
Dumoulin 42
Quintana 86
Roglic 96
Froome 100
Martin 123
Kruijswujk 188
Bardet 207
Landa 218
Fulgsang 524

And without bonus seconds

Thomas 0
Dumoulin 27
Quintana 69
Roglic 69
Froome 77
Martin 113
Kruijswujk 161
Bardet 184
Landa 191
Fulgsang 497

 

[barmaher]

That is very interesting, thanks del.

Interesting in the sense that Thomas' lead would be very slender if it weren't for the things you've excluded.

That said, he has in my view been the strongest, and I have no doubt he would have attacked Dumoulin a lot earlier yesterday if he were less than 30 seconds ahead of the Dutchman on GC going into the ITT.