Le Tour 2018 stage 19:Lourdes - Laruns 200,5km

[Laplaz]

Dan Martin, Bardet and Movistar will try for sure. The rest, i don't know. How is the Aubisque descent btw? Technical?

 

[klintE]

Re:

Valverde will attack first, Landa will attack next and then Nairo will attack. They will ride together for a while before Nairo drops them and takes the yellow jersey.

Exactly. And it's obvious from the very first day of the race.

 

[Cydone]

Froome to try a Landis, get caught and dropped.

Quintana gets dropped, Landa can't go, cos Valverde is out there with Majka and Alaphilippe. Ala gives up though, and Bardet goes into red, and drops, when finally Martin says **** this, and pulls away and wins the stage in front of Valverde.

Tom D to go, what the **** was that. "That was your chance" "Do I get another?" "Nope".

 

[Red Rick]

Re:

I think some of you have watched one too many fantasy shows

You know knothing Dekker_Tifosi

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Re: Re:

I think some of you have watched one too many fantasy shows

You know knothing Dekker_Tifosi

The maze was not meant for you, Red Rick.

Anyhow, looking forward to the Sky train part #20

 

[Valv.Piti]

I like the stage, but stages like this have relatively little chance of working against such an insanely strong Sky team which has the yellow jersey.

Valverde to win!

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Re:

I like the stage, but stages like this have relatively little chance of working against such an insanely strong Sky team which has the yellow jersey.

Valverde to win!

I'll give you one thing, you're a really optimistic fan.

 

[Amazinmets87]

If Quintana goes who will have more incentive to chase? Seems LottoNL would be at highest risk

 

[Leinster]

If Jumbo have any ambition of moving Roglic up the ladder, they could go full Sky-train. Have Tolhoek drive the group up the Tourmalet, then Gesink up the Borderes, and finally Kruiswijk go full Kwiat to bury himself on the Soulor. Depending on the damage done to the Skybots, if Roglic can get a gap over the top of the Soulor, and depending on who can follow him (a willing Bardet, a still-stage-hunting Landa/Quintana, Alaphilippe/Barguil coming back from the break?) then he can increase the gap on the descent to the final stretch of the Aubisque. It’s a steady 5ish km climb from there to the top, to which he should be well suited, and then it’s descent all the way to the finish.

Yes, there are a lot of ifs and buts. Yes, it probably sacrifices Kruiswijk’s top 10 and might not move Roglic up, and might wear Roglic out for the TT . But if they want to win the race, they have to do something big.

 

[Red Rick]

Alright, cause this stage is gonna do *** all probably, I'm gonna say what hasn't been heard in too freaking long.





Alberto Contador will win this bike race

Or at least the Aubisque Strava KOM

 

[Cookster15]

Re:

Valverde will attack first, Landa will attack next and then Nairo will attack. They will ride together for a while before Nairo drops them and takes the yellow jersey.

I guess there is still hope. Then again I think more likely this is dreaming. It would however suddenly spark the Tour into life with the TT to decide. I also recall in 2011 Thomas had some problems descending in the Pyrenees although no doubt Sky have plugged that hole in his preparation.

 

[topcat]

The only thing I'm worried about is:
Will Nairo be able to defend his lead in the tt?
Only Nairo can save this race

 

[jfazendeiro]

Re:

Dan Martin, Bardet and Movistar will try for sure. The rest, i don't know. How is the Aubisque descent btw? Technical?

The Aubisque descent isn't difficult. The Tourmalet descent is more dangerous and maybe a good opportunity for a Dumoulin attack, which I think to be the most probable to attack at some point. Of course, Castroviejo and Kwiatkowski couldn't be at the favourites group by the time. If well suceeded, how ironic would it be to win the Tour in the same way he lost month earlier the Giro?

 

[JosephK]

Froome to rise from the ashes again and stupefy the cycling world. :lol:

 

[Forever The Best]

I hope someone goes big on Tourmalet and succeeds.

 

[Broccolidwarf]

Bardet, Martin, Fuglsang, Valverde, Zakarin, Jungels, Latour, Martin will all go early tomorrow.

On top of that, for BMC, Bahrain, Mitchelton, EF, etc., it is the last chance for a stage win, so they will go early too.

So will Alaphilippe and Barguil, as the polkadots are decided tomorrow.

I see a big break forming early (30+ guys, whittled down to 10 on Tourmalet)), and SKY letting them get 4-6 minutes, with Bardet in virtual yellow, before dropping the hammer on the last climbs and minimising the gap.

Stage winner to be found amongst the guys in the early break.

The bird flies

 

[Red Rick]

Froome to rise from the ashes again and stupefy the cycling world. :lol:

The Phroemix?

 

[120mmStem]

Re:

Bardet, Martin, Fuglsang, Valverde, Zakarin, Jungels, Latour, Martin will all go early tomorrow.

On top of that, for BMC, Bahrain, Mitchelton, EF, etc., it is the last chance for a stage win, so they will go early too.

So will Alaphilippe and Barguil, as the polkadots are decided tomorrow.

I see a big break forming early (30+ guys, whittled down to 10 on Tourmalet)), and SKY letting them get 4-6 minutes, with Bardet in virtual yellow, before dropping the hammer on the last climbs and minimising the gap.

Stage winner to be found amongst the guys in the early break.

The bird flies

Something like this, but without the GC contenders. Ala will be there for the points. Sky will make this another boring stage.

 

[SHAD0W93]

Demare to win from a breakaway to show everyone he can climb.

Would not be surprised if Froome, Tom, or Roglic to attack. Quintana, Martin, and Bardet should lay it all out on the climbs.

 

[Frosty]

Majka will presumably try to get in the break, maybe looked the best of the non-GC guys the other day? Nieve didn't go that well the other day but maybe he realised the GC riders were going to win and he may have been helping Yates? This is the sort of stage he normally does well in.

Bahrain-Merida will presumably throw riders up the road to try and take back the lead in the team competition. Don't think any of them are good enough to win the stage though.

 

[The Barb]

Majka will presumably try to get in the break, maybe looked the best of the non-GC guys the other day? Nieve didn't go that well the other day but maybe he realised the GC riders were going to win and he may have been helping Yates? This is the sort of stage he normally does well in.

Agree about Majka. If this becomes a GC standoff then Majka is the clear clear top pick. Very few of the non GC climbers seem to have decent legs but he does. I suppose I’m not counting Alaphilippe, whose ability on long climbs this Tour still has me shaking my head in disbelief. I see him in the break but not winning.

If it’s a GC day then I’d say Roglic, as he descends well and has a better sprint than most GC guys (remembering his almost outsprinting Alaphilippe heads up a few months back.

I’d love Sky to give Bernal his freedom, as I’m not sure he isn’t the strongest climber in the race right now, but I guess that won’t happen.

 

[Gigs_98]

I know it's kinda lame to always say "this race would be so great with (insert any rider who crashed out)" but this stage could really use a Nibali in top shape two minutes behind Thomas.
I don't expect fireworks from far out but the race isn't won yet. Dumoulin doesn't need that much time on top of the aubisque to turn the gc to his favor as I don't expect Thomas to risk a lot on the final descent. This could still be very close and exciting. I won't be able to watch anyway so have fun watching probably the best tour stage of the century

 

[cantpedal]

Re:

If Jumbo have any ambition of moving Roglic up the ladder, they could go full Sky-train. Have Tolhoek drive the group up the Tourmalet, then Gesink up the Borderes, and finally Kruiswijk go full Kwiat to bury himself on the Soulor. Depending on the damage done to the Skybots, if Roglic can get a gap over the top of the Soulor, and depending on who can follow him (a willing Bardet, a still-stage-hunting Landa/Quintana, Alaphilippe/Barguil coming back from the break?) then he can increase the gap on the descent to the final stretch of the Aubisque. It’s a steady 5ish km climb from there to the top, to which he should be well suited, and then it’s descent all the way to the finish.

Yes, there are a lot of ifs and buts. Yes, it probably sacrifices Kruiswijk’s top 10 and might not move Roglic up, and might wear Roglic out for the TT . But if they want to win the race, they have to do something big.

so if sky can ride behind their own train what makes anyone think this tactic will work? Let's keep those Sky boys out of the wind so they get tired quicker....

 

[BullsFan22]

Quintana, if he recovers enough from his crash, could cause havoc. Him plus a few others that are 10-20 gc could go 'early.' Plus I see Roglic and Kruiswijk going for it again. Roglic looks better with each stage. Dumoulin would be crazy not to try something, either on climb or descent or both, maybe even on the Tourmalet. I know that's only halfway into the stage, but sometimes you have to gamble. I hope that there is, somehow, a four-way fight for yellow come the TT. I know that's wishing a lot at, but hope it happens!

 

[movingtarget]

Quintana injured, Roglic and Dumoulin not risking their positions going into the TT but I think pressure will be applied maybe later in the stage just to test Froome again. Of the top four he looks to be the vulnerable one. Bardet might try something but with a TT to come it hardly matters. Don't see his GC position changing much. Martin will probably try again.