Le Tour 2018 stage 19:Lourdes - Laruns 200,5km

[Lequack]

 

[Son of Amsterhammer]

Roglic will try, Dumo maybe...

The rest is irrelevant.

 

[Jungle Cycle]

Nieve ftw...
this time will work..

 

[Tigerion]

Re: Re:

If Jumbo have any ambition of moving Roglic up the ladder, they could go full Sky-train. Have Tolhoek drive the group up the Tourmalet, then Gesink up the Borderes, and finally Kruiswijk go full Kwiat to bury himself on the Soulor. Depending on the damage done to the Skybots, if Roglic can get a gap over the top of the Soulor, and depending on who can follow him (a willing Bardet, a still-stage-hunting Landa/Quintana, Alaphilippe/Barguil coming back from the break?) then he can increase the gap on the descent to the final stretch of the Aubisque. It’s a steady 5ish km climb from there to the top, to which he should be well suited, and then it’s descent all the way to the finish.

Yes, there are a lot of ifs and buts. Yes, it probably sacrifices Kruiswijk’s top 10 and might not move Roglic up, and might wear Roglic out for the TT . But if they want to win the race, they have to do something big.

so if sky can ride behind their own train what makes anyone think this tactic will work? Let's keep those Sky boys out of the wind so they get tired quicker....

But letting them ride their early doms to whatever pace they have preset their power meters to doesn't work either. I think if they are going to sky train it them the option to go with is all in on the Tourmalet. Having one rider push on each climb isn't going to bother them in the slighest

 

[gregrowlerson]

Quintana, if he recovers enough from his crash, could cause havoc. Him plus a few others that are 10-20 gc could go 'early.' Plus I see Roglic and Kruiswijk going for it again. Roglic looks better with each stage. Dumoulin would be crazy not to try something, either on climb or descent or both, maybe even on the Tourmalet. I know that's only halfway into the stage, but sometimes you have to gamble. I hope that there is, somehow, a four-way fight for yellow come the TT. I know that's wishing a lot at, but hope it happens!

Such a shame that Quintana crashed. He is/was the main rider likely to do something on the Tourmalet, and be able to go on with it and worry Sky. Perhaps some other riders could do something, but they have too much to lose. 5th place for Quintana doesn't mean a lot.

Dumoulin would be CRAZY to try something on the Tourmalet. He has a huge amount to lose. It's a long time since anyone has doubled with a podium at the Giro and Tour, plus Tom hasn't been on the podium of a Tour at all before.

First place is the most important, but's not like 20th means the same as 2nd. Not to actual cyclists anyway.

Kruiswijk is the second best hope behind Quintana to make a long range attack that matters. If he can do what he did on stage 12, and the peleton is weaker a week later, then he can threaten the podium.

But the main hope for the general interest in the yellow jersey, is that the yellow jersey cracks. If Thomas stays strong then this is probably going to be a relatively boring stage.

 

[Random Direction]

Craddock. Been soft pedaling since stage 1

 

[Leinster]

Re: Re:

If Jumbo have any ambition of moving Roglic up the ladder, they could go full Sky-train. Have Tolhoek drive the group up the Tourmalet, then Gesink up the Borderes, and finally Kruiswijk go full Kwiat to bury himself on the Soulor. Depending on the damage done to the Skybots, if Roglic can get a gap over the top of the Soulor, and depending on who can follow him (a willing Bardet, a still-stage-hunting Landa/Quintana, Alaphilippe/Barguil coming back from the break?) then he can increase the gap on the descent to the final stretch of the Aubisque. It’s a steady 5ish km climb from there to the top, to which he should be well suited, and then it’s descent all the way to the finish.

Yes, there are a lot of ifs and buts. Yes, it probably sacrifices Kruiswijk’s top 10 and might not move Roglic up, and might wear Roglic out for the TT . But if they want to win the race, they have to do something big.

so if sky can ride behind their own train what makes anyone think this tactic will work? Let's keep those Sky boys out of the wind so they get tired quicker....

Well, ok, you've seen the obvious flaw in that plan.

But the thing is, that letting Sky set their own pace, where they time it just right so that their no1 guy is the only man left standing with 2km to go on the final climb, just hasn't worked at all. But maybe, just maybe, if somebody was to set a faster pace and burn off the Sky train earlier, say with 10km of climbing left, then the other heads of state could go mano a mano vs Thomas or Froome, and it's a very different race.

It might not work, but nothing else short of broken bones has kept Sky from winning every Tour since 2012. So why not try it?

And I said Lotto NL Jumbo, rather than Movistar, Sunweb, or AG2R, or UAE, precisely because I think in Tolhoek and Gesink, The Jumbos have a bit of climbing talent in reserve.

It won't happen. I just think it'd be awesome if it did.

 

[spalco]

Froome to rise from the ashes again and stupefy the cycling world. :lol:

Not this time.

I could see Thomas breaking down and Dumoulin taking the lead comfortably though.

If Quintana and/or Roglic are on superform, the stage might get interesting, otherwise the big guns will wait for Aubisque (and is that even an HC climb really?) for sure.

 

[yaco]

Sky's nightmare will be if Froome drops off early in the last climb which will then give Dumoulin/Roglic/Kruijswijk the chance to attack - Will add that Thomas struggled a touch in the last stage of Dauphine.

 

[Robert5091]

Re:

I think some of you have watched one too many fantasy shows

I watched the Giro! :lol:

 

[Bolder]

Thomas has been the strongest rider when he needed to be, and spent the rest of the race tootling along sheltered from the wind. He hasn't crashed or had a mechanical. It's hard to imagine he won't cruise home. Same as on stage 17: Froome won't attack unless Thomas has a meltdown.

That said, there are about six riders who want to redeem their tour on this stage. I kind of doubt that Yates, Barguil, Martin, Bardet or Quintana have anything left, but I'd love to see Landa at least get a good gap at the top of the Aubisque.

Egan Bernal ftw.

 

[Robert5091]

Geezus at Lourdes? Will there be a miracle?

Some websites still saying there's a chance of a thunderstorm.

 

[Savant12]

Re:

Geezus at Lourdes? Will there be a miracle?

Some websites still saying there's a chance of a thunderstorm.

I think if Froome performs one more racing miracle, he achieves sainthood

 

[loge1884]

Démare to drop in the neutralized zone .... rumour has it that the time limit rule has been altered and is now a floating one: whoever is behind Démare in Lourdes is out of time ....

 

[dacooley]

I think many are too much obsessed with long-range attacks. nothing to happen at all.

 

[wheresmybrakes]

I can't see Froome attacking from far out and potentially wrecking Thomas' chances of winning the Tour for SKY, unless Thomas is not feeling too good and Froome is feeling awesome. SKY want to win this race so why would they want to jeopardise their chances of losing both riders' chances.


I don't think Quintana will be allowed up the road after Wednesdays effort, he may be coming into some sort of form albeit too late. Dumo won't attack too early, he's a short burst sort of attacker then a grinder up the hill, don't think he will get too far, unless it's downhill. As for Lotto doing a SKY train early on to dismantle the SKY train, that would be funny to watch to start with, then seeing SKY come trundling past them smoking pipes and drinking brandy once they get bored with the pace.


Don't think much will happen until late on the last climb for Roglic and Dumo to try and gain a few seconds before the TT. May get some second tier GC lot trying to get away early but they won't last. Hoping for riders to stay upright and for the GC to be decided by the legs and not some $hitty mechanical, especially at this stage.

 

[Blanco]

A lot will depend on the composition of the break, I expect at least 2 Movistar, maybe even 3, Valverde included. Lotto could also send 1-2 men. If this suceeds than we'll have a fireworks on Tourmalet. Landa or Quintana will certainly go, maybe even both, Kruijswijk as well. Then we'll have a proper race...

 

[Laplaz]

Everyone expecting mayhem. And then you see Rowe is allowed doing the pace on the Tourmalet. Just imagine that

 

[Keram]

Every time same expectations but long range attacka are pretty rare and not in the Tour only. Its like you expect from every footbal match score 4:3 and then b****ng when it ends 1:1 or 2:1. Unreal expectations.

Anyway I hope that Sagan will make the time cut because Demare will win green in Paris

 

[Red Rick]

I think Bardet might actually try on the Tourmalet.

 

[IndianCyclist]

Thomas has this except for a crash/mechanical/Blunder/spectator incident. Bernal will be there to shepherd him to victory. Lotto will put SK on the front for Roglic. Froome might get dropped. Landa to make a long range effort. Dumoulin doesn't have a team to break Sky. Besides both Roglic and Dumo have never been on the podium of the TDF so will try to consolidate their positions and Thomas is too far to make time on in a single stage.

 

[gregrowlerson]

Everyone expecting mayhem. And then you see Rowe is allowed doing the pace on the Tourmalet. Just imagine that

I'm imagining the classic post from LS the day after :lol:

 

[Eclipse]

I can't get excited about hypotheticals given how previous history suggests this will pan out.

 

[MrTea1976]

I think Froome will lose more time today. Bernal and Thomas will drop him on the last climb. I also think Quintana will lose time. Kruijswijk will attack I think and set up Roglic for the win and a podium. I expect Landa and Bardet to go hard for the win. What do they have to lose?

Looking around social media, Thomas seems to be genuinely popular with the other riders.

 

[glassmoon]

Rogla will try for sure. Movi could too - depends how much banged is Nairo after the crash. TD could try something too... (and then "Egan Rowe" will bring all of them back )