Le Tour de France 2013: who will win?

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Who will win the 2013 Tour

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Back to Tour 2013 :)

If Contador rides; barring injury or illness I can't see anyone beating him on this parcours. He has the strength, Mind, race savvy and Drive of a true champion.

Froome has shown tremendous potential to be a GT winner. Given the strength of Sky he will make a Formidable opponent and that in turn will make a Great Race :)

If Sky can control the race as they did last year it may be difficult for Contador/Andy? to get away. But IMO it will happen, either together or alone they will stretch the Sky elastic and it will break. Then it will all be up to Froome to show what he has.

Should be an interesting race :)
 

serfla

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Nov 12, 2012
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Carols said:
Back to Tour 2013 :)

If Contador rides; barring injury or illness I can't see anyone beating him on this parcours. He has the strength, Mind, race savvy and Drive of a true champion.

Froome has shown tremendous potential to be a GT winner. Given the strength of Sky he will make a Formidable opponent and that in turn will make a Great Race :)

If Sky can control the race as they did last year it may be difficult for Contador/Andy? to get away. But IMO it will happen, either together or alone they will stretch the Sky elastic and it will break. Then it will all be up to Froome to show what he has.

Should be an interesting race :)
Besides achieving this year's form, Froome will also have to improve tactically in order to win the Tour. His ride in Vuelta didn't leave impression he reads the race well even when he has the legs.
But I'm not convinced at all that Wiggins won't defend the title.

Regarding Contador and Schleck, we'll have to wait spring to see where they are.
If Vuelta can be taken as indicator of Contador's level after the suspension, then he's not as he was and will have to improve if he wants to win the Tour. Lacks explosiveness and some endurance. While endurance could be achieved by racing, explosiveness is quality more related to genetics and age, thus harder to gain by training (even specific).

The route looks very good for Contador and Froome; less good, but well enough, for Evans, if he manages to catch his 2011 form; and least good, but still not bad, for Wiggins and Schleck. And that's my order of favorites at the moment, with all presumptions about their best form, health and luck.
 
Jul 10, 2011
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if Froome want to have a chance to win the TDF, he needs first to get off of his powermeter during races... and race hard until the death!
 
serfla said:
Besides achieving this year's form, Froome will also have to improve tactically in order to win the Tour. His ride in Vuelta didn't leave impression he reads the race well even when he has the legs.
But I'm not convinced at all that Wiggins won't defend the title.

Regarding Contador and Schleck, we'll have to wait spring to see where they are.
If Vuelta can be taken as indicator of Contador's level after the suspension, then he's not as he was and will have to improve if he wants to win the Tour. Lacks explosiveness and some endurance. While endurance could be achieved by racing, explosiveness is quality more related to genetics and age, thus harder to gain by training (even specific).

The route looks very good for Contador and Froome; less good, but well enough, for Evans, if he manages to catch his 2011 form; and least good, but still not bad, for Wiggins and Schleck. And that's my order of favorites at the moment, with all presumptions about their best form, health and luck.
I disagree about Wiggins. I think he will ride the Giro to win and the Tour to offer some support to Froome. He wants to win the Giro and see no reason to disbelieve what has been reported. Will be interesting to see how the two BMC riders perform. Nobody seems to think they can make the podium or if they do, that view is being buried under the Contador/Froome/Schleck talk.
 
Carols said:
Back to Tour 2013 :)

If Contador rides; barring injury or illness I can't see anyone beating him on this parcours. He has the strength, Mind, race savvy and Drive of a true champion.

Froome has shown tremendous potential to be a GT winner. Given the strength of Sky he will make a Formidable opponent and that in turn will make a Great Race :)

If Sky can control the race as they did last year it may be difficult for Contador/Andy? to get away. But IMO it will happen, either together or alone they will stretch the Sky elastic and it will break. Then it will all be up to Froome to show what he has.

Should be an interesting race :)
Nice summary Carols. If both Andy and Alberto arrive in form, IMO, Sky setting up a train in the mountains will greatly play into their hands and Froome will be isolated very quickly when A & A send their boys out to play;)
 

serfla

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Nov 12, 2012
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movingtarget said:
I disagree about Wiggins. I think he will ride the Giro to win and the Tour to offer some support to Froome. He wants to win the Giro and see no reason to disbelieve what has been reported. Will be interesting to see how the two BMC riders perform. Nobody seems to think they can make the podium or if they do, that view is being buried under the Contador/Froome/Schleck talk.
Yes. So far, Giro's looking like Wiggo's next big goal. And its route looks promising for Wiggins. But, somehow, I doubt the champion won't defend the title in anniversary edition of the race. Not that 100th Tour has special value by itself, but premium competition, which is supposed to line up and was missing this year, should provoke defending champion to prove his worth and validity of the title he's won.
Anyway, I think he has to target the Tour again (next year or the year after), if he wants to validate this year's achievement. Otherwise, his title won't have the weight it deserves, despite dominating stage races throughout the year and being the first British Yellow jersey.
If he decides not to defend the title, outside the GB his victory could be remembered equally like Sastre's or (even worse) Pereiro's.
Integral part of sporting heroism and greatness is defending won.
 
Jul 29, 2012
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Vino attacks everyone said:
2 good seasons, don't be ignorant
That's not really helping you to prove your point ;)

i don't remember pre-2006.

But 2006 was obviously good (3th GC vuelta, right?)

And in tour 2007 he normally would have ended 5th or 6th in GC.
 

airstream

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Mar 29, 2011
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The Hitch said:
lol even i did not think you would be this desperate.

airstream complaining to the mods about other postrs? are you serious?

The only reason most posters don't report half the posts he makes is because we think it offers some comic value.

And even then its only thanks to the generosity of the mods that he hasnt been banned yet. You want to complain about airstream being unfairly treated by the mods? Wans't he trolling LF by talking about how Contador deserves to die? Its amazing hes not on a new account by now.
Dear Hitch, surely I understand that oddly enough you could brilliantly master English living in London and it allows you to ridicule and needle me on any occasion, but arrogance is a dangerous vice. You are no one here, like me, like any separate poster and you are not entitled to say for entire forum, saying 'WE' and evaluating my posts. You, Florecita and Netserk is NOT a forum. OMG, mods are so generous... :cool:

IMO the thing you could present like an allegoric comparison to darwinism while saying about Contador and others is closer to nazism — proclamation of upper and lower races due to subjective reality by default. Lion and gaselles as you motivated. But this approach doesn't take into consideration factor of the time and contention. Nothing depends on one rider and the reason for this is not crushes or illnesses, but rivals. In general, we have no reason to unambiguously affirm that say the level Contador and Schleck showed in the 2009 is higher than Sky in this year Tour, but when it is presented as fact recognized by everyone, it is pretty comical. The guys like Nibali and Purito are treated just like crowd scene — decent decoration for the Great One. Really laughable. Honestly, I don't know. Perhaps you are learning some special pro-Contador darwinism in your educational institution. Then I give up.
 
airstream said:
Dear Hitch, surely I understand that oddly enough you could brilliantly master English living in London and it allows you to ridicule and needle me on any occasion, but arrogance is a dangerous vice. You are no one here, like me, like any separate poster and you are not entitled to say for entire forum, saying 'WE' and evaluating my posts. You, Florecita and Netserk is NOT a forum. OMG, mods are so generous... :cool:

IMO the thing you could present like an allegoric comparison to darwinism while saying about Contador and others is closer to nazism — proclamation of upper and lower races due to subjective reality by default. Lion and gaselles as you motivated. But this approach doesn't take into consideration factor of the time and contention. Nothing depends on one rider and the reason for this is not crushes or illnesses, but rivals. In general, we have no reason to unambiguously affirm that say the level Contador and Schleck showed in the 2009 is higher than Sky in this year Tour, but when it is presented as fact recognized by everyone, it is pretty comical. The guys like Nibali and Purito are treated just like crowd scene — decent decoration for the Great One. Really laughable. Honestly, I don't know. Perhaps you are learning some special pro-Contador darwinism in your educational institution. Then I give up.
:confused::confused:

I'm clearly not a part of the 'we' Hitch talks about, so why name me?
 
airstream said:
Dear Hitch, surely I understand that oddly enough you could brilliantly master English living in London and it allows you to ridicule and needle me on any occasion, but arrogance is a dangerous vice. You are no one here, like me, like any separate poster and you are not entitled to say for entire forum, saying 'WE' and evaluating my posts. You, Florecita and Netserk is NOT a forum. OMG, mods are so generous... :cool:

IMO the thing you could present like an allegoric comparison to darwinism while saying about Contador and others is closer to nazism — proclamation of upper and lower races due to subjective reality by default. Lion and gaselles as you motivated. But this approach doesn't take into consideration factor of the time and contention. Nothing depends on one rider and the reason for this is not crushes or illnesses, but rivals. In general, we have no reason to unambiguously affirm that say the level Contador and Schleck showed in the 2009 is higher than Sky in this year Tour, but when it is presented as fact recognized by everyone, it is pretty comical. The guys like Nibali and Purito are treated just like crowd scene — decent decoration for the Great One. Really laughable. Honestly, I don't know. Perhaps you are learning some special pro-Contador darwinism in your educational institution. Then I give up.
I agree with this, and I am being serious.
 
I like colorful language, that's true.

But basically his reasoning is that certain people view Contador as the best no matter what. When someone else is close, Contador is in bad form. When Contador beats everyone by a big margin, everyone was in good form. I think that's twaddle.
 
Arnout said:
I like colorful language, that's true.

But basically his reasoning is that certain people view Contador as the best no matter what. When someone else is close, Contador is in bad form. When Contador beats everyone by a big margin, everyone was in good form. I think that's twaddle.
Well that's because that's the way the world works. Some.riders are better than others. What you posted.is actually a very accurate description.of.how the food chain looks.in cycling. Same way that if cav loses he probably isn't on form. Or.Gilbert. Do you think.Gilbert was at 100% in the ardennes this year and astana were simply better ?

Everything apart from the cheap.last little bit about how everyone is always on form.v contador. Contador fans do.of course aknowledge that his opponents aren't always at 100 eg froome 12 Evans 10. But don't let facts get in the way of your little rant.
 
He said saying that Contador is always better than other riders no matter what is closer to Nazism: i.e. not a matter-of-fact Darwinist survival of the fittest, but rather starting from the premise that one is better than the other. I think that's exactly what's going on. I don't think that is a big problem though, as it might actually be true (and I'm definitely not talking about the evil sides of that ideology, just about the basic premise)..

And I know supporters of Contador also acknowledge weaknesses and strengths of other riders. However, I also feel that the lack of racedays of Contador in this Vuelta was exaggerated, compared to previous years where other people were comparatively better than Contador because they were fresh. Or about the case of Contador gifting away stages to the likes of Anton because he couldn't be bothered rather than that someone else was faster than him on a certain day (I don't want to go into that in detail, we've had this discussion, just pointing it out). I feel different standards are and were used.

I don't buy in the "he is always better than someone else". It depends on time and day and I don't think Contador, or anyone, is as unbeatable every single day of the year. That is why I agree with airstream who's simply saying that things can change and have changed and will continue to do so and that the reasoning that Contador is the best rider can be challenged. That's all.
 

airstream

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Mar 29, 2011
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The Hitch said:
Well that's because that's the way the world works. Some.riders are better than others. What you posted.is actually a very accurate description.of.how the food chain looks.in cycling. Same way that if cav loses he probably isn't on form. Or.Gilbert. Do you think.Gilbert was at 100% in the ardennes this year and astana were simply better ?

Everything apart from the cheap.last little bit about how everyone is always on form.v contador. Contador fans do.of course aknowledge that his opponents aren't always at 100 eg froome 12 Evans 10. But don't let facts get in the way of your little rant.
You don't understand. No rider can set the level other rider is not able to outdo. The world is changeable and it doesn't work this way. There are no races which become a benchmark and remembering which we would say 'ah, if a rider had been in THAT form, actual winners would never have won' and there are too many decisive factors and such comparison are useless.

Saying about Gilbert, all of us understood such a form like in 2011 can be once in a lifetime. Because such things don't happen twice in a row. It's like.. if Barcelona would grow one more super duper starry team out of players of the next generation. It's just impossible due to natural course of life and contention. It works for Phil too. More likely he can be in a similar shape surely, but it could lesser results because there are too many uncontrollable circumstances.

Feeling that you are better at English than the man who lives in a country where no one speaks and learns it by himself. Great reason to proud of! ;) Then you are right. We are saying in absolutely different languages in terms of mutual understanding.
 
The Hitch said:
Well that's because that's the way the world works. Some.riders are better than others. What you posted.is actually a very accurate description.of.how the food chain looks.in cycling. Same way that if cav loses he probably isn't on form. Or.Gilbert. Do you think.Gilbert was at 100% in the ardennes this year and astana were simply better ?

Everything apart from the cheap.last little bit about how everyone is always on form.v contador. Contador fans do.of course aknowledge that his opponents aren't always at 100 eg froome 12 Evans 10. But don't let facts get in the way of your little rant.
Just want to jump into this discussion for a second and say Yes, yes ofc he was, and yes they were ;)
 

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