Le Tour de France 2013: who will win?

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Who will win the 2013 Tour

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Arnout said:
He said saying that Contador is always better than other riders no matter what is closer to Nazism: i.e. not a matter-of-fact Darwinist survival of the fittest, but rather starting from the premise that one is better than the other. I think that's exactly what's going on. I don't think that is a big problem though, as it might actually be true (and I'm definitely not talking about the evil sides of that ideology, just about the basic premise)..

And I know supporters of Contador also acknowledge weaknesses and strengths of other riders. However, I also feel that the lack of racedays of Contador in this Vuelta was exaggerated, compared to previous years where other people were comparatively better than Contador because they were fresh. Or about the case of Contador gifting away stages to the likes of Anton because he couldn't be bothered rather than that someone else was faster than him on a certain day (I don't want to go into that in detail, we've had this discussion, just pointing it out). I feel different standards are and were used.

I don't buy in the "he is always better than someone else". It depends on time and day and I don't think Contador, or anyone, is as unbeatable every single day of the year. That is why I agree with airstream who's simply saying that things can change and have changed and will continue to do so and that the reasoning that Contador is the best rider can be challenged. That's all.
Wow I now actually know what he was saying.
 

airstream

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Well I'd like to note one more thing to sum up the matter decisively. If Contador wins the Tour, he will establish himself as unconditionally strongest GT rider in nowadays era one more time. But if he loses, saying 'he wasn't like in 2009 or 2011' will be just foolish, because then there will be more reason to think that someone [Schleck, Froome, Nibali no matter who — so to speak, a representative of an inferior race] would be stronger in 2013 than Contador was in the 2009 Tour / 2011 Giro. Apparently if it happens, the world will start working differently.
 
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airstream said:
Well I'd like to note one more thing to sum up the matter decisively. If Contador wins the Tour, he will establish himself as unconditionally strongest GT rider in nowadays era one more time. But if he loses, saying 'he wasn't like in 2009 or 2011' will be just foolish, because then there will be more reason to think that someone [Schleck, Froome, Nibali no matter who — so to speak, a representative of an inferior race] would be stronger in 2013 than Contador was in the 2009 Tour / 2011 Giro. Apparently if it happens, the world will start working differently.
True. Also, if Contador loses next year, for whatever reason, it doesn't mean he won't go on to find 2009 tour or 2011 giro form at a future GT. Putting clinic issues aside Armstrong had won only three of his seven tours at Contadors current age.

Contador has to be favourite for next year, regardless of how good Froome looked at the tour. There is only a couple of years between them and the score is 7 GT's to nil.
 
But if he loses, saying 'he wasn't like in 2009 or 2011' will be just foolish, because then there will be more reason to think that someone [Schleck, Froome, Nibali no matter who — so to speak, a representative of an inferior race] would be stronger in 2013 than Contador was in the 2009 Tour / 2011 Giro.
I don't understand this.
 

airstream

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If Contador loses the Tour on the road (without crashes) and one tries to explain this with a bad form, it will be laughable.
 
airstream said:
If Contador loses the Tour on the road (without crashes) and one tries to explain this with a bad form, it will be laughable.
Gilbert lost the ardennes this year without any crashes. It was his season aim.and had good preparation.

By your logic he must have had 100% form, no?
 
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The Hitch said:
Gilbert lost the ardennes this year without any crashes. It was his season aim.and had good preparation.

By your logic he must have had 100% form, no?
How would you know? A week ago he said he was already training for 3 weeks now and that he hadn't even started training yet at this point last year. And he also got sick during T-A which he had to abandon.
 

airstream

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The Hitch said:
Gilbert lost the ardennes this year without any crashes. It was his season aim.and had good preparation.

By your logic he must have had 100% form, no?
OK, we can add illnesses and viruses. By my logic if other guy's 100% will turn out to be stronger than Contador's 100%, it will be normal.

Hm, how would you explain Gilbert's Argennes failures then?
 
airstream said:
OK, we can add illnesses and viruses. By my logic if other guy's 100% will turn out to be stronger than Contador's 100%, it will be normal.

Hm, how would you explain Gilbert's Argennes failures then?
Same way i explain Contador 2010. The champion just hasn't been able to.get 100%
 

airstream

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The Hitch said:
Same way i explain Contador 2010. The champion just hasn't been able to.get 100%
In my view your logic doesn't take into account the fact that the difference between riders is not constant. OK, look, as I understand you base on visual criterion: if Contador doesn't drop everyone, he is not at 100%, right?

Say, the Giro 2011. Apparently Scarponi's fit we can evaluate very highly. What about Nibali?
 
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airstream said:
In my view your logic doesn't take into account the fact that the difference between riders is not constant. OK, look, as I understand you base on visual criterion: if Contador doesn't drop everyone, he is not at 100%, right?

Say, the Giro 2011. Apparently Scarponi's fit we can evaluate very highly. What about Nibali?
Right.Because we:D(myself,hitch and many others) think that when he is 100% he can drop 100% - Schleck,Nibali,Purito,VDB,Piti etc.simply because when they are all on equal fitness(which is impossible in this world) Contador is good enough to drop these when he wants.
But I understand what you are trying to say with this 'laughable' thing.I agree when he won't win(with no illnesses,crashes) it will be laughable to say 'Oh he was third behind Andy and Froome cos he wasnt at his best',it is bull**** I agree with you...So if he won't win I will declare 'he already doesnt have it'.But Im sure he has it,so dont worry :)
 
We have all heard the expression, " in the form of his life." Gilbert had it in 2011 as did Evans, and Wiggins, Boonen in 2012. Where they were able to keep winning or in Evans' case close to winning with another second in the Dauphine, over an extended period of time. I don't know why anyone would think these types of seasons could be duplicated. It is rare for them to happen once. Crashes, sickness, opportunities etc........everything has to go right on the day or over three weeks. Gilbert did not lack for trying in this year's classics season, he just didn't have it but still rode very well at Amstel and I think at Fleche where Rodriguez was the hot favourite. Sometimes sportsmen do everything right and just does not happen. You also hear often, how bad riders feel early in a race and surprise themselves by winning unexpectedly.
 

airstream

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Exactly. Moreover, Phil rode this year's Ardennes even better than many people expected based on his previous perfomances. Everything is relative.
 
Jan 3, 2011
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airstream said:
if Contador doesn't drop everyone, he is not at 100%, right?
Well to some extend, yes. But Andy at 100% "should" be able to follow (but then again he will be smoked in the ITT). Also u never know if there a some young talent who suddenly breaks through and steps up. So would rather rephrase the sentece to "if Contador doesn't drop almost everyone, he is not at 100%"
 
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airstream said:
Exactly. Moreover, Phil rode this year's Ardennes even better than many people expected based on his previous perfomances. Everything is relative.
lol, even by your standards, this is ridiuculous.
 
Cimber said:
Well to some extend, yes. But Andy at 100% "should" be able to follow (but then again he will be smoked in the ITT). Also u never know if there a some young talent who suddenly breaks through and steps up. So would rather rephrase the sentece to "if Contador doesn't drop almost everyone, he is not at 100%"
I disagree, Alberto at 100% > Andy at 100%
 
Aug 4, 2010
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Siriuscat said:
Fixed that for ya.... ;)
Dont think so,Alberto is slightly better than Andy in mountains,IMO it is enough to drop him but not more than 30s on 5km ascent(which is under 9%)
 
Afrank said:
At least Nibali has lived up to his hype a lot more than Kreuziger has. I think Nibali has and is living up to his hype very well.
If anything Nibali has exceeded the hype. He was always a bit underpowered in the mountains with a mediocre tt compared to other riders that were being touted more than him. His palmares speak for themselves. I'm biased though so maybe I'm not seeing things as clearly and objectively as I should. He's a rider who's done more with his ability than most in the sport.
 

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