Le Tour de France 2013: who will win?

[ILovecycling]

that's why I said under normal circumstances. nibali was lucky this years tour field was horrible and frank was lucky that last year everyone crashed out

Ok,I understand

 

[Altitude]

Valverde will be in the mix. He's better than Nibali and Frank Schleck when he's in shape. Nibali is perhaps the most overrated rider at the moment.

 

[ferryman]

Valverde will be in the mix. He's better than Nibali and Frank Schleck when he's in shape. Nibali is perhaps the most overrated rider at the moment.

Hmm. Not sure about Frank. But a fit Valverde is in the mix no doubt. Don't agree about Nibs being overrated. He was the only rider to try and take on Sky TDF 2012 and go and watch some of his rides in Giro 2011.

Nibs: 1st, 2nd(3rd) and 3rd in a GT in consecutive years (Vuelta, Giro, TDF) is pretty impressive stuff to me

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

Valverde will be in the mix. He's better than Nibali and Frank Schleck when he's in shape. Nibali is perhaps the most overrated rider at the moment.

couldn't agree more. remind me of early years of kreuziger, perhaps even worse is nibali's hype.

 

[Altitude]

Hmm. Not sure about Frank. But a fit Valverde is in the mix no doubt. Don't agree about Nibs being overrated. He was the only rider to try and take on Sky TDF 2012 and go and watch some of his rides in Giro 2011.

Nibs: 1st, 2nd(3rd) and 3rd in a GT in consecutive years (Vuelta, Giro, TDF) is pretty impressive stuff to me

You think a fresh Nibali could have matched Contador, Rodriguez, and Valverde in the Vuelta? I don't. He couldn't even drop Wiggins.

 

[Afrank]

couldn't agree more. remind me of early years of kreuziger, perhaps even worse is nibali's hype.

At least Nibali has lived up to his hype a lot more than Kreuziger has. I think Nibali has and is living up to his hype very well.

 

[movingtarget]

Well, I just hope he can get at least one decent shot at the Tour podium before the end of his career, something he hasn't been able to do since 2008. And now with a full season of racing in his legs I believe he can.

Btw which British riders were in the podium of this year's Tour and the 2011 Vuelta? And if Vuelta performances don't have many parallels with the Tour I'm wondering why Froome isn't first in this poll, with the Vuelta being probably his last GT before next year's Tour? Cobo's just a bad reference, Valverde has proven to be a much more consistent top 10 rider in GT, podiuming in 2 out of his last 3 GT's.

I was talking about winners of the Tour also winning the Vuelta. Contador only. Vuelta winners like Menchov, Nibali, Heras, Vinokourov, Valverde, Cobo have not been close to winning the Tour. But I take your point. Podium riders in the Vuelta like Evans have also won the Tour and Wiggins who I think finished fourth in the Vuelta ? I am just noting the history of both races in recent times. I still think Froome has some chance in next year's Tour but less chance for Valverde. Valverde has been very consistent of course as has Evans except for 2009 and 2010.

 

[greenedge]

Evans was not consistent in 09 but he still did 2 good rides at the Vuelta and WC. In 2010 he would have had a good season but got sick at the Giro/ crashed at the TDF.
Wiggins finished 3rd last year.
Vino came close to winning the TDF in 03 as well.

 

[movingtarget]

Evans was not consistent in 09 but he still did 2 good rides at the Vuelta and WC. In 2010 he would have had a good season but got sick at the Giro/ crashed at the TDF.
Wiggins finished 3rd last year.
Vino came close to winning the TDF in 03 as well.

To me Evans was unlucky getting sick at the Giro because he was looking really good, really strong but Basso was very good too. Even though he was in yellow at the Tour I had my doubts even if he had not hurt his elbow. I think fatigue would have beaten him but he was riding well until he crashed and Schleck's and Contador's climbing I think could have been too much for him. Of course he still had great results in 2009 as well. I think the puncture at the Vuelta may have helped motivate him for the World's. Thankfully the ups and downs got ironed out at the Tour in 2011.

 

[orangerider]

Evans was not consistent in 09 but he still did 2 good rides at the Vuelta and WC. In 2010 he would have had a good season but got sick at the Giro/ crashed at the TDF.
Wiggins finished 3rd last year.
Vino came close to winning the TDF in 03 as well.

Menchov wasn't too shabby either in 2010. Legitimate 3rd place and was already on his decline after 2009's Giro performance. Menchov also could've had better luck in his earlier years - the shared Rasmussen and Freire green objectives cost him a lot of rider support when he was with Rabobank, and later with Gesink coming aboard as the next big thing didn't help either. And though he was on the decline, not being able to ride in 2011 due to political issues didn't give him a fair chance to prove his legs.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

At least Nibali has lived up to his hype a lot more than Kreuziger has. I think Nibali has and is living up to his hype very well.

Indeed. You can't put that down to "luck"

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

Indeed. You can't put that down to "luck"

of course he's good. but he's not within the top ten best cyclists in the world. the reason he is ranked so high is just luck and lots of it.

 

[ILovecycling]

of course he's good. but he's not within the top ten best cyclists in the world. the reason he is ranked so high is just luck and lots of it.

Top ten best cyclist in the world,uhm thats interesting.What are yours?
Mine top ten in their category
Cavendish,Greipel,Sagan,Boonen,Cancellara,Wiggins,Rodriguez,Contador,Gilbert,Valverde

 

[theyoungest]

Menchov wasn't too shabby either in 2010. Legitimate 3rd place and was already on his decline after 2009's Giro performance. Menchov also could've had better luck in his earlier years - the shared Rasmussen and Freire green objectives cost him a lot of rider support when he was with Rabobank, and later with Gesink coming aboard as the next big thing didn't help either. And though he was on the decline, not being able to ride in 2011 due to political issues didn't give him a fair chance to prove his legs.

Gesink worked for Menchov in the Tour 2010, so I don't know what you're talking about.

 

[Afrank]

of course he's good. but he's not within the top ten best cyclists in the world. the reason he is ranked so high is just luck and lots of it.

Luck doesn't play any more a role in Nibali's ranking than it does in any other riders. It is ridiculous to reduce a riders entire results as just because of luck, luck plays a role but it is not the ultimate factor in how a rider does.

 

[phanatic]

of course he's good. but he's not within the top ten best cyclists in the world. the reason he is ranked so high is just luck and lots of it.

He sure finishes in the top ten a lot.

 

[airstream]

So called is a sanctimony, myth, absurdity. At first 'luck' was attached to Wiggins and Froome. Now it is being done with Nibali. The mind boggles.

I don't like this rider so his results are achieved because of luck!

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

Top ten best cyclist in the world,uhm thats interesting.What are yours?
Mine top ten in their category
Cavendish,Greipel,Sagan,Boonen,Cancellara,Wiggins,Rodriguez,Contador,Gilbert,Valverde

cancellara, gilbert, wiggins, contador, andy, froome, purito, samu, valverde, sagan, boonen, cavendish, greipel are all better than nibali imo.

not in order btw, although I think cancellara is number 1

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

He sure finishes in the top ten a lot.

what has that to do with it?

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

Luck doesn't play any more a role in Nibali's ranking than it does in any other riders. It is ridiculous to reduce a riders entire results as just because of luck, luck plays a role but it is not the ultimate factor in how a rider does.

what? you are saying samu is having the same amount of luck as nibali? or a number of others I could say.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

Gesink worked for Menchov in the Tour 2010, so I don't know what you're talking about.

I guess I must've missed that. pls show me the stages he worked for menchov

 

[Angliru]

I guess I must've missed that. pls show me the stages he worked for menchov

I clearly recall Gesink riding for Menchov on the Tourmalet stage. I'm almost certain of it. I would think there are others during that year's Tour.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

I clearly recall Gesink riding for Menchov on the Tourmalet stage. I'm almost certain of it. I would think there are others during that year's Tour.

yes when menchov dropped(hilarious rabo tactics I remember). that was the only stage, he finished with menchov together but I doubt he could've gone any harder. that was all he ever did for menchov that tour. I'm quite certain of. that's why he managed to finish 6th as well.

 

[Parrulo]

yes when menchov dropped(hilarious rabo tactics I remember). that was the only stage, he finished with menchov together but I doubt he could've gone any harder. that was all he ever did for menchov that tour. I'm quite certain of. that's why he managed to finish 6th as well.

la madeleine stage says hi

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

la madeleine stage says hi

can you show it, because I don't remember it anymore