Le Tour de France 2013: who will win?

[airstream]

no, riding 2 Gts back to back is impossible.
Giro-Tour --> impossible
Tour-Vuelta --> impossible
Giro-Vuelta --> possible and successfully done various times.

How does one regard 2011? Coincidence?

 

[Eshnar]

How does one regard 2011? Coincidence?

I'd say yes.
it worked with AC 2008, Nibali 2010, Purito 2012 and countless other times (these are just the first I remembered).

 

[ILovecycling]

Don't argue with him lol

You know I was bored, Im watching tennis and there was break between sets,so

It was simple in 2010.

OK, how does it match a notorious theory that riding 2 gts in a year is impossible? This year Giro was easier than last year one exactly by the stage to Etna not more, however, Rodriguez fired at both GTs. Purito didn't have a meaningful physical reserve in comparison to Contador, but they were equal on the climbs. But after that he doesn't have it, right?

Just like wrote Eshnar,back to back is impossible...Hey,we both follow cycling for long time so why are you asking for this stupid Q?I dont believe you are troll,so I dont understand it.
And compare Purito fitness to Alberto's one is tough,we dont know if they were eqaul or not(i know you love comparsion like 80%Contador or 100%Nibali)

But I really want to know this answer.Now,in November 2012 you dont think Alberto and Andy are the best climbers?

 

[airstream]

But I really want to know this answer.Now,in November 2012 you dont think Alberto and Andy are the best climbers?

I consider Froome to be equal to both of them. And Rodriguez and Nibali are weaker not that much to consider them a 2nd categorie climbers. They are a little bit weaker.

 

[The Hitch]

I prefer to base on suspense. There are too many questions in order to build on what was in 2009, 2010... All that collides with the questions like 'who is stronger purito '12 or schleck '11' or so. Answers to these questions don't exist. But I just don't understand why a rider [Nibali, Purito or anyone else] who vastly improved is considered knowingly and beforehand weaker than Schleck and Contador just on the base of the fact he got 3rd in the Tour without competing against them. Armstrong began from a weak Tour field too and smashed everyone even in a more snorting fashion year later.

What does lol imply? Do you offer me to consider Andy the 1st favorite for the Tour

The lol is because you spent all of last year pretending to be a schleck fan to troll the contador crowd, but the second a contador fan praises Andy you lose all allegiance to your supposed favorite rider. True colours.

And write as many paragraphs as you want, but nibali and purito simply are not in the league of contador and schleck, and even their most passionate fans (apart.from.that deluded Canadian who thinks nibali will win 7 tours) would argue that they are.

 

[airstream]

The lol is because you spent all of last year pretending to be a schleck fan to troll the contador crowd, but the second a contador fan praises Andy you lose all allegiance to your supposed favorite rider. True colours.

And write as many paragraphs as you want, but nibali and purito simply are not in the league of contador and schleck, and even their most passionate fans (apart.from.that deluded Canadian who thinks nibali will win 7 tours) would argue that they are.

Hm, in other worlds, to think Froome is not a weaker climber, it is not true colors? Oddly enough, favoritism doesn't oblige me to fight for Andy's exceptionality on any occasion. It's normal.

You base primarily on palmares, me — on what I see visually. One has its approach. OK. The time will judge us.

Simply this season persuaded me how sandy any balance of forces can be, how close the competition is. Any unpredictable result can not be explained just with a worse than expected favorite's form and his rival's fantactic one. And in principle to refer to previous experience indefinitely is not quite correct despite it is the only objective criteria we can operate. Because riders change themselves too much in order to trust events of two years ago entirely .
Strictly speaking, it is an idea I'm trying to convey.

 

[cineteq]

<snip>but nibali and purito simply are not in the league of contador and schleck, and even their most passionate fans (apart.from.that deluded Canadian who thinks nibali will win 7 tours) would argue that they are.

At least be polite and use IMHO at the start of your phrases. That confuses most readers who think otherwise.

 

[Angliru]

It was simple in 2010.

OK, how does it match a notorious theory that riding 2 gts in a year is impossible? This year Giro was easier than last year one exactly by the stage to Etna not more, however, Rodriguez fired at both GTs. Purito didn't have a meaningful physical reserve in comparison to Contador, but they were equal on the climbs. But after that he doesn't have it, right?

I'd like to think that Purito has refined his preparation for the grand tours and has matured. In the past he did well in the Giro and later disappointed in the Vuelta. We obviously disagree on Contador. It's my belief that 6 months away from competition is far from ideal preparation for being at one's best while you seem to believe that it gives that rider an advantage (ignoring any of the potential disadvantages) over his opponents in the same race by that rider having fresher legs (meaningful physical reserve). If the idea of taking 6 months away from competition was seen as being the best way to arrive at a grand tour to achieve the objective of performing at one's best you would likely see more riders doing just that.

 

[Miburo]

Off-season seems to be no good for certain people.

Some people are overrating Nibali here.

Remember giro 2011? I thought that was obvious enough. Except for zoncolan Nibali wasn't even riden away from the other riders. And remember the stage Kyrienka won? that was painful...

He's a great descender, the best atm. He's an average TT, above schleck/vdb (which isn't hard...) but below Contador.

As a climber he's good of course but no Contador or Schleck. And he'll never be, he always has these stages where he even loses time on the big guys (giro 2010: zoncolan, giro 2011:stage after zoncolan stage, tour 2012, stage valverde won). Pretty much always a bad day but not as crazy bad as purito though.

He failed many times at solo's (giro 2011, tour 2012, lombardia 2011 and LBL 2012) which shows that he lacks that stamina-thing.

Seriously he's not that great. He's an aggresive rider though and i like him but don't think he can defeat Contador. Not even a contador at 95%

Hell no, and also not Schleck. He can't even ride away from Froome and I wonder if he can do it against purito or valverde at top shape.

IMO he's a valverde type with no sprint and great descending. They resemble a lot. Ok TT, Ok climbing, sometimes very good climbing and always a minor day as a climber in a GT.

Anyway Contador wins with 6 minutes. And gives Schleck a stage like a real gent

 

[Angliru]

Off-season seems to be no good for certain people.

Some people are overrating Nibali here.

Remember giro 2011? I thought that was obvious enough. Except for zoncolan Nibali wasn't even riden away from the other riders. And remember the stage Kyrienka won? that was painful...

He's a great descender, the best atm. He's an average TT, above schleck/vdb (which isn't hard...) but below Contador.

As a climber he's good of course but no Contador or Schleck. And he'll never be, he always has these stages where he even loses time on the big guys (giro 2010: zoncolan, giro 2011:stage after zoncolan stage, tour 2012, stage valverde won). Pretty much always a bad day but not as crazy bad as purito though.

He failed many times at solo's (giro 2011, tour 2012, lombardia 2011 and LBL 2012) which shows that he lacks that stamina-thing.

Seriously he's not that great. He's an aggresive rider though and i like him but don't think he can defeat Contador. Not even a contador at 95%

Hell no, and also not Schleck. He can't even ride away from Froome and I wonder if he can do it against purito or valverde at top shape.

IMO he's a valverde type with no sprint and great descending. They resemble a lot. Ok TT, Ok climbing, sometimes very good climbing and always a minor day as a climber in a GT.

Anyway Contador wins with 6 minutes. And gives Schleck a stage like a real gent

Gilbert often failed at his many solo attacks before his breakthrough 2 years ago. Not to say that Nibali will become as dominant as Gilbert has/had become but using that as an argument simply doesn't hold up. Nibali has shown steady improvement in his ability to read a race, his endurance and in his climbing ability. Who is to say that that improvement won't continue? A rider that can reach the Tour podium (I recognize the competition was watered down), win a grand tour and podium the Giro twice, podium at MSR and LBL in the same season is not a rider that I would consider overrrated. If anything I would say that if he is as sorry as many imply on this forum he has to be the rider that gets the most out of his seemingly minimal talents.

 

[airstream]

Off-season seems to be no good for certain people.

Some people are overrating Nibali here.

Remember giro 2011? I thought that was obvious enough.

Lol, you are the best like always by taking competitive Nibali's worst GT and making categorical conclusion on that. The rest GT are irrelevant. The Giro is enough for you.

yea...

But off-season obviously affects on Miburo in a positive way so that he unobtrusively starts personifying a male version of little flower.

 

[The Hitch]

Lol, you are the best like always by taking competitive Nibali's worst GT and making categorical conclusion on that. The rest GT are irrelevant. The Giro is enough for you.

yea...

But off-season obviously affects on Miburo in a positive way so that he unobtrusively starts personifying a male version of little flower.

Giro 2011 was Nibalis worst gt?

And even if it was, he wasnt narrowly beaten, he was absolutely slaughtered. Did he finish above Contador on a single stage?

 

[cineteq]

Rodriguez admitted that he is considering returning to La Grande Boucle in 2013.

"Katusha have also intimated that they will leave the final decision on Rodriguez’s programme to the rider himself. “That mean I’ll go with guarantees of getting good results,” he [Rodriguez] said."

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/rod...&ns_source=cyclingnews&ns_linkname=0&ns_fee=0

 

[cineteq]

Giro 2011 was Nibalis worst gt?

And even if it was, he wasnt narrowly beaten, he was absolutely slaughtered. Did he finish above Contador on a single stage?

No. But did Contador win 2011 Giro?

 

[airstream]

I'd like to think that Purito has refined his preparation for the grand tours and has matured. In the past he did well in the Giro and later disappointed in the Vuelta. We obviously disagree on Contador. It's my belief that 6 months away from competition is far from ideal preparation for being at one's best while you seem to believe that it gives that rider an advantage (ignoring any of the potential disadvantages) over his opponents in the same race by that rider having fresher legs (meaningful physical reserve). If the idea of taking 6 months away from competition was seen as being the best way to arrive at a grand tour to achieve the objective of performing at one's best you would likely see more riders doing just that.

In short, you think a preparation via the Giro, Burgos and overly concentrated spring season (again, the races were ridden for the result) a better thing despite on such a point doesnt look into account factor of freshness right?

 

[Netserk]

No. But did Contador win 2011 Giro?

Yes

Or was it Ferrari-Scarponi?.....

 

[cineteq]

Yes

Or was it Ferrari-Scarponi?.....

Nope. I guess Nibali's won 2 GTs!

 

[airstream]

Yes

Or was it Ferrari-Scarponi?.....

how much would u bet that there was no bb contador?

 

[Angliru]

In short, you think a preparation via the Giro, Burgos and overly concentrated spring season (again, the races were ridden for the result) a better thing despite on such a point doesnt look into account factor of freshness right?

What I think is that you totally choose to not to take into consideration that 6 months away from competition should not be looked at as a positive. I can't recall any rider's preparation for their season's objective being a purposeful avoidance of racing for 6 months.

 

[burning]

Giro 2011 was Nibalis worst gt?

And even if it was, he wasnt narrowly beaten, he was absolutely slaughtered. Did he finish above Contador on a single stage?

He finished above on 1st,2nd,3rd,5th,6th,7th,10th and 18th, which makes more than a third of the stages and he even gained 8 seconds on the first TTT

Sorry, I couldn't resist myself making this post

 

[airstream]

What I think is that you totally choose to not to take into consideration that 6 months away from competition should not be looked at as a positive. I can't recall any rider's preparation for their season's objective being a purposeful avoidance of racing for 6 months.

Not, I just don't treat this only like a negative thing. The medal has 2 sides

 

[airstream]

Giro 2011 was Nibalis worst gt?

And even if it was, he wasnt narrowly beaten, he was absolutely slaughtered. Did he finish above Contador on a single stage?

without considering the 2011 vuelta (intentionally i was concretizing 'competitive') - no doubt. Not by result surely, but by the level of expectations, this is the case. Back then Vincenzo disappointed by and large despite on 3rd spot

 

[The Hitch]

No. But did Contador win 2011 Giro?

yes. I believe the official wording is that he won and it was taken away. he still won. What you are trying to get at would be something more like " he is no longer the winner" but it is incorrect to say that he did not win (past tense).

And unlike the tour the year before, he had it taken away on a technicality and not for breaking rules.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

Not, I just don't treat this only like a negative thing. The medal has 2 sides

no it doesn't have 2 sides. unless you can come up with an(other) example of a rider that hasn't been in compeition for 8 months and then still managed to win a gt or some other huge race if you like

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

Nope. I guess Nibali's won 2 GTs!

you mean the same rider that has bene seen with ferrari near etna?