Le Tour de France 2013: who will win?

[Angliru]

True, but it was a separate day. An excellent day for Schleck and Contador. Mediocre day for Menchov who wavered all the way up to the top and Sanchez who crashed. The stage showed tendency but not its value. It's naive to assume that Contador and Schleck could have done something similar 2-3 times in the race even jointly, if they had needed this. So, that's a distance, but not a gulf.

To me Froome's climbing level in comparison to these 2 is unknown, to put it mildly. 2.5 years is too much to trust that relation of forces entirely.

If you admit that Froome's climbing level in comparison to Contador and Schleck is unknown, as many of us have been trying to impress upon you along, then why do you find it so hard to accept that until he proves himself against them we can't place him at their level?

 

[The Hitch]

True, but it was a separate day. An excellent day for Schleck and Contador. Mediocre day for Menchov who wavered all the way up to the top and Sanchez who crashed. The stage showed tendency but not its value. It's naive to assume that Contador and Schleck could have done something similar 2-3 times in the race even jointly, if they had needed this. So, that's a distance, but not a gulf.

To me Froome's climbing level in comparison to these 2 is unknown, to put it mildly. 2.5 years is too much to trust that relation of forces entirely.

Col de madeline. Schleck and contador go.
10 seconds later only 5 riders remain.
20 seconds later only 2 riders remain.
30 seconds later. No riders remain.
40 seconds later, they do track stands. Samuel sanchez gets back on.
45 seconds later. And sanchez is dropped again.

 

[Angliru]

Col de madeline. Schleck and contador go.
10 seconds later only 5 riders remain.
20 seconds later only 2 riders remain.
30 seconds later. No riders remain.
40 seconds later, they do track stands. Samuel sanchez gets back on.
45 seconds later. And sanchez is dropped again.

In Samu's defense he had crashed earlier and had quite an extensive chase to regain contact so his performance was pretty impressive considering the circumstances.

 

[The Hitch]

In Samu's defense he had crashed earlier and had quite an extensive chase to regain contact so his performance was pretty impressive considering the circumstances.

Read again

Col de madeline. Schleck and contador go.
10 seconds later only 5 riders remain.
20 seconds later only 2 riders remain.
30 seconds later. No riders remain.
40 seconds later, they do track stands. Samuel sanchez gets back on.
45 seconds later. And sanchez is dropped again.

 

[Parrulo]

indeed Madeleine was as impressive as tourmalet, they put a lot of time into every1 even tho they were paced by jens voigt for a while before the top. if they just kept going they would have put more then 2 and a half minutes into every1 by the end of the stage.

 

[ILovecycling]

You offer to consider that stage the mirror of nowadays climbing hierarchy? IMO it's quite doubtful.

It is.But what is supposed to be the mirror?

 

[airstream]

If you admit that Froome's climbing level in comparison to Contador and Schleck is unknown, as many of us have been trying to impress upon you along, then why do you find it so hard to accept that until he proves himself against them we can't place him at their level?

Why? I accept. I'm just wondering why people generally underrate him a bit. Apparently, it is because of Wiggins and one can think Froome is the same cart without an explosive spark as Wiggins. Dunno. Just a feeling. Visually Froome makes a furious impression. The man with no weaknesses.

It is.But what is supposed to be the mirror?

The mirror doesn't exist. Everything is too complicated.

 

[Zam_Olyas]

The mirror doesn't exist. Everything is too complicated.

Jim Morrison before LSD??

 

[Ferminal]

Contador hasn't done anything like Madeleine/Tourmalet since, so why should we expect Andy to get back to that level?

 

[rzombie1988]

I will never pick against Alberto Contador in a GT. I don't believe in Andy Schleck anymore. J-Rod has passed him, Froome has passed him and Wiggins has as well. With all that being said, there's too many if's and but's right now to pick the rest of the podium. I would literally have to make three different podiums to include/not include Wiggo and J-Rod, so I will hold off until I know more.

 

[Afrank]

Why? I accept. I'm just wondering why people generally underrate him a bit. Apparently, it is because of Wiggins and one can think Froome is the same cart without an explosive spark as Wiggins. Dunno. Just a feeling. Visually Froome makes a furious impression. The man with no weaknesses.

He's being underrated because he is unknown, we don't know how he will do against the best climbers. It was easy to ride away from everyone on this years parcours, it will not be as easy next year. He might hang in there and show himself to be one of the best climbers, he might end up seeing the best ride away; only time will tell.

Contador hasn't done anything like Madeleine/Tourmalet since, so why should we expect Andy to get back to that level?

Because Andy has a stomach full of anger

In seriousness though, I think it is more a hope of seeing both Andy and Contador back at that level. I have my doubts as well that we will see them like they were in 2010 again, but I'll take even half of that over the bore that is Wiggo and his Sky train.

Also I think Contador at least could still have the ability to reach and perform at that level, 2011 wasn't that long ago.

 

[movingtarget]

He's being underrated because he is unknown, we don't know how he will do against the best climbers. It was easy to ride away from everyone on this years parcours, it will not be as easy next year. He might hang in there and show himself to be one of the best climbers, he might end up seeing the best ride away; only time will tell.



Because Andy has a stomach full of anger

In seriousness though, I think it is more a hope of seeing both Andy and Contador back at that level. I have my doubts as well that we will see them like they were in 2010 again, but I'll take even half of that over the bore that is Wiggo and his Sky train.

Also I think Contador at least could still have the ability to reach and perform at that level, 2011 wasn't that long ago.

Froome is no longer unknown. His Vuelta performance in 2011 plus the Tour indicate where he is at except against Andy and Contador who did not ride the Tour. His Vuelta 2012 ride, most people agree was mainly the result of fatigue. The 2013 Tour and maybe also the Giro should be fascinating races to finally see some riders face off against each other in peak form in their first GTs for the year. Also the team tactics and resilience of Saxo, Sky and the other top teams should be interesting to watch.

 

[Afrank]

Froome is no longer unknown. His Vuelta performance in 2011 plus the Tour indicate where he is at except against Andy and Contador who did not ride the Tour. His Vuelta 2012 ride, most people agree was mainly the result of fatigue. The 2013 Tour and maybe also the Giro should be fascinating races to finally see some riders face off against each other in peak form in their first GTs for the year. Also the team tactics and resilience of Saxo, Sky and the other top teams should be interesting to watch.

Froome is unknown and untested against the best climbers, Contador and Schleck; I'd even include Samu and Purito as being possibly as strong as him in the mountains. His 2011 Vuelta ride really doesn't give us much insight into how he will perform in the tour next year. Just look at his competitors in that Vuelta:
Cobo (has done nothing this year)
Wiggins (on his team so won't have to compete with him anyways)
Mollema (zero chance of even coming close to Contador's or any of the other top GC riders level)
Menchov (past his prime).
Monfort (not likely to repeat any great GT performances)
Nibali (out of form at the time, but is doing the Giro next year so doesn't matter anyways)
The only realistic GC contender that was at that Vuelta that could contend in next year tour was Van Den Broeck. And Froome is way above him.

As for his performance this year, it is much easier to ride away from that field on those parcours than it will be in the 2013 tour (which will have much harder parcours, and a much tougher field).

Just to clarify what I think of froome though, I don't think Contador and others will easily ride away from him in the mountains. I think he will be one of the big contenders for the podium. But since we haven't seen him going up against the best climbers on equal ground, his limits are unknown. Which can actually be a very good thing.

 

[ILovecycling]

The mirror doesn't exist. Everything is too complicated.

There is always a mirror.Too complicated?You have interesting personality,for example for me there is nothing 'too complicated', I try to solve everything.There is always solution.Like with classic riders,sprinters,punchers there is always hierarchy and mirror.

Jim Morrison before LSD??

You are man

 

[shades1]

i find it strange that most posters in this thread pretty much right off any chances of andy schleck , it may be asking a lot to come back from the injury and get himself at his peak again but if he can surely his chance to win this race is huge , hes only 27 and compare that to some multiple winners over the years that is still very young in cycling terms and there is still a lot of room for improvement to go with his unquestionable natural talent .

i honestly dont understand the dislike for this guy across this forum {not just this thread} , he is one of the most exciting riders in recent times and with the world of cycling pretty much on its knees through bad press i would have thought they need this guy back to his best .

its probably a huge ask for him to get back to the level he once was but he does not come across as a quitter to me and im confident that come july all you haters might finally give this guy some credit .

 

[airstream]

Jim Morrison before LSD??

? ))))))

Froome is unknown and untested against the best climbers, Contador and Schleck; I'd even include Samu and Purito as being possibly as strong as him in the mountains. His 2011 Vuelta ride really doesn't give us much insight into how he will perform in the tour next year. Just look at his competitors in that Vuelta:
Cobo (has done nothing this year)
Wiggins (on his team so won't have to compete with him anyways)
Mollema (zero chance of even coming close to Contador's or any of the other top GC riders level)
Menchov (past his prime).
Monfort (not likely to repeat any great GT performances)
Nibali (out of form at the time, but is doing the Giro next year so doesn't matter anyways)
The only realistic GC contender that was at that Vuelta that could contend in next year tour was Van Den Broeck. And Froome is way above him.

As for his performance this year, it is much easier to ride away from that field on those parcours than it will be in the 2013 tour (which will have much harder parcours, and a much tougher field).

Just to clarify what I think of froome though, I don't think Contador and others will easily ride away from him in the mountains. I think he will be one of the big contenders for the podium. But since we haven't seen him going up against the best climbers on equal ground, his limits are unknown. Which can actually be a very good thing.

The fact that Froome didn't compete against them doesn't mean he is weaker. Cobo was magical in that Vuelta. Grande Bisonte rode Angliru faster than Contador in 2008. In addition Froome, did a huge chunk of dirty work for Wiggins. Froome worked up to the collar back then. The Vuelta was a titanic effort from him.

i honestly dont understand the dislike for this guy across this forum {not just this thread} , he is one of the most exciting riders in recent times and with the world of cycling pretty much on its knees through bad press

It's elementary. The reason is an acute spasm-like headache for Contador fans

 

[Angliru]

? ))))))


It's elementary. The reason is an acute spasm-like headache for Contador fans

This coming from the former rabid Andy supporter who shamelessly bailed like a rat from a sinking ship.

Seriously though, the anti-Andy vibe is derived from his media stumbles and passive early riding in the 2011 Tour that likely cost him his chance at a Tour win. Add to that his and Frank's reasoning behind their failure in 2011 being that they were the only riders who took the initiative and you have a pile of material (of which this is just a few) to inspire and motivate.

 

[Amethyst]

indeed Madeleine was as impressive as tourmalet, they put a lot of time into every1 even tho they were paced by jens voigt for a while before the top. if they just kept going they would have put more then 2 and a half minutes into every1 by the end of the stage.

on the climb itself it wouldnt have been such a gap with samu tho. strong effort by him too.

 

[airstream]

This coming from the former rabid Andy supporter who shamelessly bailed like a rat from a sinking ship.

Seriously though, the anti-Andy vibe is derived from his media stumbles and passive early riding in the 2011 Tour that likely cost him his chance at a Tour win. Add to that his and Frank's reasoning behind their failure in 2011 being that they were the only riders who took the initiative and you have a pile of material (of which this is just a few) to inspire and motivate.

Dare you accuse me of anything regarding Andy? Ah, seemingly I have to consider him #1 favorite... You know it is coming out that Schleck fans are not so obsessed as Contador fans and not eager to handle any circumstance to underline their rider's exceptionality.

The phrase 'My team is the only that want to attack' was said after Plateau de Beille. And it was so actually. Frank told this before Alpe-d'Huez stage. So it is the case too. Team Leopard Trek was the only one that tried to attack on high mountain stages.

 

[Jason_Mercier]

"The fact that Froome didn't compete against them doesn't mean he is weaker. Cobo was magical in that Vuelta. Grande Bisonte rode Angliru faster than Contador in 2008. In addition Froome, did a huge chunk of dirty work for Wiggins. Froome worked up to the collar back then. The Vuelta was a titanic effort from him."

+1

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

froome worked for wiggins in angliru? there is no way to work on angliru. you each ride your own tempo. froome was no doubt better than wiggins and it showed. wiggins dropped. still cobo was a lot better

 

[Jason_Mercier]

Today i think Contador is over Froome in the mountain. But not as all the forum imagine. Only a superlittllebit. Also Froome is TTing better than Alberto. After them i see Thibaut Pinot (the best climber in La Toussuire, the best in Porrentruy and the third in Peyragudes stage in this year TDF. Arguments: Nice route for him, More experience, development as climber, specific warm up, not as this year) Later a second group of climbers compose of J Rod, Nibali and Valverde. ¿Andy Schleck? We'll see. I hope a triumphal come back, at the level of 2011. But IMO he will be as much in the second group of climbers. Too much time off.

 

[Afrank]

The fact that Froome didn't compete against them doesn't mean he is weaker. Cobo was magical in that Vuelta. Grande Bisonte rode Angliru faster than Contador in 2008. In addition Froome, did a huge chunk of dirty work for Wiggins. Froome worked up to the collar back then. The Vuelta was a titanic effort from him.

Or course it doesn't, but the point was that his vuelta ride doesn't give us that much indication of where he is currently at in climbing compared with guys like Contador. I'm willing to bet that had we seen Contador at the Vuelta or a in-form Schleck, or even a in-form Purito they would have been right up there battling it out on angliru with Cobo and Froome.

 

[infeXio]

How exactly do people conclude that Froome is a better TT'er than Contador?

 

[LaFlorecita]

i find it strange that most posters in this thread pretty much right off any chances of andy schleck , it may be asking a lot to come back from the injury and get himself at his peak again but if he can surely his chance to win this race is huge ,

No his chance is not huge cos there is Alberto. I believe Andy has about 25% chance which is not "huge". (Alberto 50% Froome 20%)

hes only 27 and compare that to some multiple winners over the years that is still very young in cycling terms and there is still a lot of room for improvement to go with his unquestionable natural talent.

Has not shown a lot of improvement since 2010 though.

i honestly dont understand the dislike for this guy across this forum {not just this thread}

He's an arrogant whiny spoiled brat who only races 2 races a year. No that's not gonna get you a lot of love.

, he is one of the most exciting riders in recent times and with the world of cycling pretty much on its knees through bad press i would have thought they need this guy back to his best .

Andy back to his best won't change anything about that.

its probably a huge ask for him to get back to the level he once was but he does not come across as a quitter to me and im confident that come july all you haters might finally give this guy some credit .

Well to me he does.