Liège-Bastogne-Liège: April 28th, 2019

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Who will win Liège-Bastogne-Liège 2019?

  • Alejandro Valverde

    Votes: 2 2.1%
  • Jakob Fuglsang

    Votes: 27 28.4%
  • Julian Alaphilippe

    Votes: 25 26.3%
  • Maximilian Schachmann

    Votes: 9 9.5%
  • Michal Kwiatkowski

    Votes: 7 7.4%
  • Michael Matthews

    Votes: 8 8.4%
  • Philippe Gilbert

    Votes: 2 2.1%
  • Romain Bardet

    Votes: 1 1.1%
  • Vincenzo Nibali

    Votes: 15 15.8%
  • Other

    Votes: 13 13.7%

  • Total voters
    95
The ideal solution would be to put La Redoute in the first half of the race and keep the second half completely flat. That way the climbers would be forced to attack 200 km before the finish! :rolleyes:

No seriously, I think the final 25 km were great, so I don't mind that nothing happened on La Redoute. What happened afterwards was more than enough compensation.
 
Re:

Pantani_lives said:
The ideal solution would be to put La Redoute in the first half of the race and keep the second half completely flat. That way the climbers would be forced to attack 200 km before the finish! :rolleyes:

No seriously, I think the final 25 km were great, so I don't mind that nothing happened on La Redoute. What happened afterwards was more than enough compensation.
Nothing much happens on the Ghisallo any more. The Muur van Geraardesbergen rarely makes a difference. The Cipressa is closer to the finish, but only ever serves to drop some of the particularly heavy-legged sprinters. Just because Redoute is the most famous hill, doesn't mean it's the one they have to attack on.
 
Re:

Red Rick said:
Simplest solution for an ideal route would probably involve ditching La Redoute as well
Why? What should you do instead?

With a flat finish in Liege, I believe that the most important thing is to keep Roche-aux-Faucons. It could on the other hand be interesting to see something else between Stockau and Redoute than Haute-Levee and Rosier.
 
Maybe in better weather conditions... a team or a group of riders would have to ride Redoute harder than yesterday. Just tire out opponents before the remaining climbs.

Everybody probably was pretty tired going into Redoute this year from the horrible weather almost up until that point and had to save the energy for RaF. Where it also later got blown to pieces.
 
Re:

Climbing said:
I have the feeling the route is too soft, in good weather would have been even more of a bore fest.
We’ll see next year I guess, anyway still better than Ans imho.
Nothing will frigging happening on La Redoute if that's what you're wondering.

Tim Wellens just about showed how usefull it is to attack before the RaF
 
Re:

Climbing said:
I have the feeling the route is too soft, in good weather would have been even more of a bore fest.
We’ll see next year I guess, anyway still better than Ans imho.
I think so too. Bad weather and Fuglsang one step above the rest created gaps. But this route can very well end in a 20 men bunch sprint.
 
Re: Re:

Red Rick said:
Climbing said:
I have the feeling the route is too soft, in good weather would have been even more of a bore fest.
We’ll see next year I guess, anyway still better than Ans imho.
Nothing will frigging happening on La Redoute if that's what you're wondering.

Tim Wellens just about showed how usefull it is to attack before the RaF
Yep... the new route is even more predictable. It was only entertaining because of Fuglsang's insane attack, that everyone and their mother knew was coming. The only surprise was Formolo hanging on for that long.
 
Alternative route

Wonder what would happen if they did something like this between Stavelot and Redoute. Using much smaller and more narrow roads, including a few steeper sections than one can find at Haute-Levee and Rosier. The distance and the number of height meters aren't very different from yesterday's route, but the road condition is quite different.
 
Re: Re:

Valv.Piti said:
Gigs_98 said:
Valv.Piti said:
But, but, but... I thought it was meant to be a sprinters race now?
Hahaha, this exactly :D
Actually quite sad that so many people who should know something about the sport suddenly wrote previews for this race declaring Michael Matthews the pre race favorite because this was now supposed to be another Milano Sanremo. Remember the outcry by some why every race has to be turned into a sprinters classic? :lol:
People who thought guys like GVA, Sagan and Matthews could win this race absolutely know nothing about cycling tbh. Well, ill modify that, a super peak shape Matthews would have very, very little chances and would have to depend either the favorites being shite or playing waiting games. Wont happen.
At the top of the Roche aux Faucons Matthews and van Avermaet were just behind Nibali/Schacmann group and probably would have been able to regroup and sprint for the third without the crash.
For the recent years 80 kgs Sagan is too hard but the 2010-2015 version would have been easily there too.

This year they were lucky with bad weather and a rider clearly stronger that destroyed the competition on the last climb and made effective the new route for a solo win but a solo win could have happened also on the old route so i still think a 15/20, or even more, riders sprint is very likely on this route, we have seen that no one try until last climb, the hard race from Redoute or even from Rosier like i've read some days ago is only a wet dream.

And like we've seen with the return of the Muur in Ronde or the new finale in Amstel the change tend to loose the effectiveness through the years because there isn't anymore the surprise effect of a new route, Ronde and Amstel was still good races this year but were already very different from 2017 when with the new routes Quick-Step launced the decisive move from the Muur in Ronde and the selected group in Amstel formed with 50+ kms to go.

I've read people that want to cut Roche or even Redoute but why? To make it a Wallon Kuurne-Brussels-Kuurne? The thing that really make a race is the willingness to attack of riders, if they don't want to attack there will always be a borefest like we see on the mountains of the Tour whereas if they want to attack even a couple of little hills like the old Paris-Tours could be enough. Sometimes we could have "external" factors that force selection against riders will like crashes, wind or even mechanicals but are a little minority of situations.
I think that there is also a general consensus about a race in the peloton that is difficult to change, for example the general consensus is that the Giro is a more suited for attacks than the Tour and so the riders already start with a different mindset and usually make a more offensive race. In recent years probably only for Sanremo we've seen a change of general consensus after 2017 and 2018 moves and then this years they rode the Poggio very hard making a big selection behind the first group.
 
I think the route is fine.

The only reason nothing happened earlier was, that Astana was horribly out of position on Redoute, with only Fuglsang in front.

I'd bet Astana had planned to drop the hammer on Redoute, to create the first selection, but couldn't because the team was not positioned for it.
 
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