Liquigas at Giro and Tour in 2011 - what should be their main focus?

[buster1]

Seems a risky strategy by Leaky to hedge bets by having Nibali at Giro and Basso at le tour. Leaky were at their best in the giro when they had Nibali and Basso to work the 1-2 punch on Evans etc. Cant see why they wouldn't put all their eggs into the one basket whether it be Giro or le tour. Still might not win it but at least they'd give themselves the best chance.

Cant see how one for one Nibali can beat Contador and Basso can beat Schleck (and thats without even bringing into account whether Contador does le tour).

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Nibali has as much chance winning the giro I'n that line up as I do.

Anyway liqui are pretty strong can't see why they cant concentrate on both. A given at the tour more teams will attempt to control things. Giro last year teams let liqui control it tho, maybe this year teams like lampre (with a real leader now, I'd be surprised if they didn't send there strongest team possible) saxo, geox won't be bullied around.

 

[mombus]

Peter Sagan will win both

 

[jaylew]

Seems a risky strategy by Leaky to hedge bets by having Nibali at Giro and Basso at le tour. Leaky were at their best in the giro when they had Nibali and Basso to work the 1-2 punch on Evans etc. Cant see why they wouldn't put all their eggs into the one basket whether it be Giro or le tour. Still might not win it but at least they'd give themselves the best chance.

I think there's still a decent chance Basso will be at the Giro. He says he'll make his decision later so we'll see.

 

[gregrowlerson]

I think there's still a decent chance Basso will be at the Giro. He says he'll make his decision later so we'll see.

It must be very tempting for Basso to ride the Giro again. I am pretty sure that he would rather win the TDF, but at his age, I'm not sure if he has the acceleration that will be required on the easier TDF mountains to break Andy. Whereas I believe that he can defintely win another Giro. Even if AC rides it and is in form then Basso could win it. There are so many opportunities for any GC guy to have a horrible day, what with stages 13-21 all having a say in the final outcome. Nine consecutive stages of GC carnage (I know that 17 and 18 are not brutes, but could still result in interesting time gaps)! Plus there is the steepness of the Zoncolan and Mortorillo; not seen on the TDF climbs. For me, Basso has a better chance of defeating AC at the Giro then of defeating AS at the TDF - also factor in that Nibali would be at the Giro alongside him.

But as a bit of a Basso fan, I am really not sure which GT he should choose.

As for the courses mapped out, I know that the Giro makes for a fascinating spectacle, but does this years course make it too much of a survival of the fittest rather than a showing of the best climber/rider? And will the stage after stage of horrific climbs even make many of the GC riders more defensive? I actually really like the mountain stages in the TDF this year. They've achieved a nice balance there. My qualms about the course are that stage 12 is a long time to wait until the first major MTF, so I would have thrown out the 2 stages before it and had the Pyrenees as stages 10-12, then a flat stage 13, and an extra ITT (maybe about 30 kms with a cat 2 climb) on stage 14, before entering the alps for 15-17. Then some varied terrain before the traditional flat finish in Paris. I feel that too many of the GT's are becoming too back ended, as well as not enough TT kms.

 

[profff]

basso will dwfinitely race the tour.
he built up his career at the tour, he had good result there and he is convinced that he has the skills to win the tour.
he has already won 2 giro, this year, probably without AC, it is his great chance .
no way he will race such an hard giro before the tour, after kast year experience,

 

[gregrowlerson]

I like the confidence that Basso has, "the skills to win the tour."

I am just concerned about his ability (even if in peak form) to match AS on climbs that are long enough, but nowhere near as steep as the Zoncolan.

Just the image of AS and AC sprinting up the Tourmalet is very scary (for Ivan). In my opinion, even if he had not raced last years Giro and taken that form to the TDF, well, I just don't see him being able to go with AS when he rides like that. No way.

Since there is nothing as steep in the TDF as the Giro, Basso will probably need to make a stage extra difficult by riding aggressively well before the final climb of the day. But to do this he will likely need a strong team alongside him or hope that a dangerous rider gets away in a breakaway and forces Leopard to ride hard on the front for 60+ kms.

 

[theyoungest]

I like the confidence that Basso has, "the skills to win the tour."

I am just concerned about his ability (even if in peak form) to match AS on climbs that are long enough, but nowhere near as steep as the Zoncolan.

Just the image of AS and AC sprinting up the Tourmalet is very scary (for Ivan). In my opinion, even if he had not raced last years Giro and taken that form to the TDF, well, I just don't see him being able to go with AS when he rides like that. No way.

Since there is nothing as steep in the TDF as the Giro, Basso will probably need to make a stage extra difficult by riding aggressively well before the final climb of the day. But to do this he will likely need a strong team alongside him or hope that a dangerous rider gets away in a breakaway and forces Leopard to ride hard on the front for 60+ kms.

Basso probably couldn't drop Schleck on a long steep climb either. Schleck finished 3d on the Zoncolan when he was 21 years old... no reason to assume he has gotten worse at the steep stuff.

 

[gregrowlerson]

Basso probably couldn't drop Schleck on a long steep climb either. Schleck finished 3d on the Zoncolan when he was 21 years old... no reason to assume he has gotten worse at the steep stuff.

Good point. But I still think that the steeper the climb, the better chance that Basso has of beating AC or AS, as opposed to the TDF's 6 and 7% gradients.

 

[rhubroma]

I think some people really overestimate Schleck. Yes he had an exceptional Giro debut at 21 years old, however, that was a different quality field than more recent editions.

I'm not saying he isn't really talented, though the Basso who finished 2nd at the Tour 05 to Armstrong and winning the Giro 06 was superior. Now we all know what the circumstances were to have that Basso, but if he can get back to that level then he doesn't have to fear anyone except the best Bertie.

And this brings me to Schleck's second at last year's Tour. Sure he was great, though arguably Contador was having a not peak performance and I wouldn't judge Basso by the way he road because it was following a rather hellish Giro victory. While Shleck never road away from everyone in truly dominant fashion on a stage like other past Tour and Giro winners, while his Vuelta performance was disgraceful for a rider of his caliber.

I will thus reserve final judgment on the pair at this year's Tour, but like I said a super Basso can I think beat a super Shleck, but I doubt a super Contador.

As far as Nibali vs. Contador goes, while I like the Italian, he is simply over matched. A podium at the Giro would already be a great success for him.

 

[Parrulo]

ya i think people overestimate schleck. he wasn't able to beat a not on peak contador after all

to be honest i think basso as a chance of dropping schleck in the tour, at least in the longer climbs. basso can ride a very high tempo for a large amount of time (he is prolly the best tempo rider in the peloton atm) so if he is on super form in a 20k long climb he may have a chance.

nibali has been improving gradually for the past few years but unless he improved his climb a lot from last year he won't be able to beat contador. he is very good at suffering tho and hanging to some1's wheel when he is suffering (like gesink) so he may be able to podium

 

[gregrowlerson]

I think that people underestimate Schleck if anything (maybe because he is not liked?). I am not so sure that AC was not on great form last year. So okay, his final ITT was not fantastic, but that was a unique circumstance with a very strong head wind. But take the Tourmalet ride: The fact that he and AS put at least 2 minutes into all the other climbers suggests to me that AC had the same climbing form as '09, and that AS had raised his game to that level. So I think that now (at least at the TDF) a super Schleck = a super Contador in the mountains (I will rate AC as stronger in the ITT). But if Basso is able to break AS in July then I will have been proven wrong (unless Andy is way off form for some reason).

He may actually be overated overall, but not as a TDF GC rider.

Basso cannot get back to his '06 level regardless of circumstances. He is 5 years older, so that will remain his peak. But considering that this peak was better than Andy's, Ivan still has some chance of winning more GT's.

 

[Ryaguas]

Basso probably couldn't drop Schleck on a long steep climb either. Schleck finished 3d on the Zoncolan when he was 21 years old... no reason to assume he has gotten worse at the steep stuff.

Remember Mende last year... Alberto attacked and Andrew were dropped inmediatly, he had to sit and ride tempo, gradients over 12-15% are not for him... He is used to 6-9% not more from that...

This year Ivan will prove that Andrew is not that great... Ivan and Cuddles fresh, a free-injury Gesink and a SS in form will put Andrew in red... no more hype for the Lux boy

 

[gregrowlerson]

Remember Mende last year... Alberto attacked and Andrew were dropped inmediatly, he had to sit and ride tempo, gradients over 12-15% are not for him... He is used to 6-9% not more from that...

This year Ivan will prove that Andrew is not that great... Ivan and Cuddles fresh, a free-injury Gesink and a SS in form will put Andrew in red... no more hype for the Lux boy

Good point about Mende, but that climb is not long enough to ever decide a tour. And the major finishing climbs in this years tour are:

Stage 12: Luz Ardiden; 14.7 kms, 6.9% gradient (maximum 10%).
Stage 14: Plateau de Beille; 15.8 kms, 7.9% gradient (maximum 10.8%).
Stage 18: Galibier Serre-Chevalier; 8.5 kms, 6.9% gradient (maximum 12.1%, at the summit). This is the shortest way up the Galibier (I'm not sure which way they are going up exactly). The profile makes it look like at least 12 kms and probably an average of about 7.5%.
Stage 19: Alp d'Huez; 13.8 kms, 7.9% gradient (fairly constant).

Stae 14 and 18 look to be Basso's best chances of gaining time on AS. Take note too that stage 18's finish is the highest altitude that any stage in the history of the TDF has finished, so in those last 5 kms there could be some serious cracking going on. The last 150 kms of that stage are all climbing and descending. It's a beast.

I think that all of these MTF's are great selections by the organisers; an improvement of the previous 3 editions.

 

[Parrulo]

i just thought of something. wouldn't basso benefit if there were more hard stages at the tour this year? cus overall people would be more tired by the time they reached the decisive stages and the explosive guys would be less explosive and with every1 more tired basso would have a higher chance of dropping them with his tempo riding like he did on the zoncolan.

what do you guys think?

 

[Ferminal]

i just thought of something. wouldn't basso benefit if there were more hard stages at the tour this year? cus overall people would be more tired by the time they reached the decisive stages and the explosive guys would be less explosive and with every1 more tired basso would have a higher chance of dropping them with his tempo riding like he did on the zoncolan.

what do you guys think?

Maybe, but the Tour just doesn't seem to happen like that.

The best stage Liquigas could target for such a strategy would be the one with Tourmalet and Luz Ardiden right next to each other. Liquigas would have to be strong enough to reduce the group to 10-15 by the top of Tourmalet.

 

[Parrulo]

Maybe, but the Tour just doesn't seem to happen like that.

The best stage Liquigas could target for such a strategy would be the one with Tourmalet and Luz Ardiden right next to each other. Liquigas would have to be strong enough to reduce the group to 10-15 by the top of Tourmalet.

ya that does suck for basso. and i agree with you a on form smyzd that is 100% focused on the tour should be good enough to do that if not basso can take over the last part of the tourmalet. with the schelcks going into luz ardiden with no domestiques on a group with only the top guys if they(the bro's) have the yellow jersey people may trap them into countering every attack+ setting the pace in the first part of the climb and then some1 strong like basso/samu could make his move and gain time on them.

doesn't look very possible tho cus the baby bro would prolly have frank working for him and would save himself saying he would do the same thing for frank at the vuelta . . . and we all know how that would work out

 

[The Hitch]

That 150k descent and ascent stage sounds awesome but after the last few years, i would consider it a pleasant surprise if the heads of stage contested anything other than the last climb of the day.

 

[Angliru]

Good point. But I still think that the steeper the climb, the better chance that Basso has of beating AC or AS, as opposed to the TDF's 6 and 7% gradients.

As much as I would hope that Basso could somehow take AS, I believe without Contador in the race AS will be more aggressive and even more confident on the climbs, attacking when he feels the tempo is "boring" him and looking for weaknesses in his opponents. I believe Basso will be above everyone but AS and as was mentioned earlier, be unable to match or react sufficiently to AS' attacks.

 

[Ferminal]

I think some of us may have to reasses Basso's chances after getting a win yesterday.

It may be a bit of an overreaction, but it's possible that he's going to step it up another level this year. I have had him 4th or 5th, but that is assuming equal preparation to Giro 2010.

 

[Parrulo]

I think some of us may have to reasses Basso's chances after getting a win yesterday.

It may be a bit of an overreaction, but it's possible that he's going to step it up another level this year. I have had him 4th or 5th, but that is assuming equal preparation to Giro 2010.

he has been improving slowly ever since his return. so maybe the return of robo basso?

i reckon robo basso would put up a fight against andy.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

I think some of us may have to reasses Basso's chances after getting a win yesterday.

It may be a bit of an overreaction, but it's possible that he's going to step it up another level this year. I have had him 4th or 5th, but that is assuming equal preparation to Giro 2010.

what I worrie more about is his itt. since he stopped doping it has become quite bad. in his csc days he would even win itt's.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

That 150k descent and ascent stage sounds awesome but after the last few years, i would consider it a pleasant surprise if the heads of stage contested anything other than the last climb of the day.

Take a bow, Giro 2008. Arabba-Fedaia, with Sella and Rodríguez in the break all day (with Baliani), Nibali part of the group that bridged to them, maglia rosa Bosisio being dropped, and THEN the explosions on the final climb.

Any Mortirolo stage has the benefit of being two contested climbs of course.

Vino, Pinotti and Sastre getting in the break over the Gavia in 2010 made an interesting setup to an eventually quite dull final mountain stage too.

It's no coincidence that the only real examples I can think of from recent years are in the Giro though.

 

[jens_attacks]

what I worrie more about is his itt. since he stopped doping it has become quite bad. in his csc days he would even win itt's.

he will do well in this tour de france itt.he will do better than much of the gc contenders because basso from 2006 is back,it's no worry.i predicted this since last year.

any itt until then?in tirreno i guess.ivan basso for the win!

 

[The Hitch]

what I worrie more about is his itt. since he stopped doping it has become quite bad. in his csc days he would even win itt's.

If you want to speculate as to whether someone is doping or not, take it to the clinic.