the asian said:
Looking forward to the Men's 200M freestyle Final. Lochte, Sun Yang, Park and Agnel should ensure a fascinating contest.
Don’t forget Biedermann, who holds the WR in the event and beat Phelps in the 2009 WC (albeit with now-outlawed suit). Lochte could easily finish off the podium, MP was smart to drop this race from his schedule.
Lochte also AFAIK will not be on the medley relay, as he opted out of the 100 back in the trials, and finished 3d in the 100 m fly. He should win the 200 back, and is a strong favorite in the 200 IM, but is handicapped in that both finals are the same night, I think the IM is just 20-30 min after the back. Lochte did that in 2008, and it probably affected him, as he won the back but finished 3d in the IM.
It maybe isn't generally appreciated that what Phelps and now Lochte are doing is more than just excelling in several disciplines that normally don't go together. They have to pick their races so there isn't a conflict. In 2004, Phelps swam the 200 m freestyle, though it was a foregone conclusion that he couldn't beat Ian Thorpe (and as it turned out, van den Hoogendam was even faster). He would have been a lock for a silver in the 200 back, with a good chance of winning the event over his teammate Aaron Piersol, but then he would have faced that conflict with the 200 IM. So he picked the 200 free not because it was a better event for him, but because if fit into his schedule better. If the Olympics stretched out longer, with a single race every night, Phelps could have won even more medals in both 04 and 08, and same with Lochte this year.
It's tough to do it for 3 straight Olympics. Kitajima the Olympic Gold medalists in the 100 and 200 Breast Stroke in both 2004,and 2008 finished only 5th in the 100 M final.
Young guys with bigger motivations come through.
The relays appear to be Phelps best chances of winning medals.
It’s actually never been done before, now we see why. Interesting, though, that Kitajima's old rival Brendan Hansen, who took a couple of years off, made a comeback and took bronze. Though he beat Kitajima in the worlds back at the height of their rivalry, this is the first time he finished ahead of him in the Olympics, and it must be some consolation, though he didn't win the race.
The 200 m fly is MP’s best event, if he doesn’t win that, don’t expect him to take an individual gold. But he is a lock to set the record for most overall medals, needs just one more to tie, and should get several more.
update:
U.S. better have a big lead over France going into the final leg of the 4 X 200 relay. I don’t know who else France has for that, but Agnel destroyed everyone in the 200 m. He picked up a second plus on everyone in the final 50 m alone. A year ago at the WC, he came in 5th at 1:44.99, so he has improved substantially, almost two seconds over that time. Lochte won that WC race at 1:44.44, whereas tonight he finished at 1:45.04. So as I suggested before, he may be feeling the effects of age. His 400 IM time the other day was better than a year ago, but not by much. Basically, he is about where he was a year ago. If he were younger, he might be expected to improve over the course of the year, much as Agnel has.
Another possibility: Some observers think the U.S. Olympic trials are held too close to the Olympics. Swimmers have to taper going into a big meet, so they start doing that several weeks before the trials. But after the trials, there are only a few weeks to the Olympics. That’s too short a time to resume a heavy workload, but if you continue with a lighter load, you risk losing your edge. So some have suggested America’s trials should be held earlier in the year. To be sure, Phelps dealt with this in the past, but he was so dominant that maybe he didn’t have to taper much for the trials.
But the bottom line is that the 200 FS is not Lochte’s strong event. It’s hard to win an event that is not your strength, and this field was probably the strongest ever. Lochte should win the 200 back, where he is really at home, and if he can recover enough, the 200 IM.
But otherwise a good night for the U.S. 1-2 in the men’s 100 backstroke (if Lochte had been in that race, he probably would have finished 3d or higher). Missy Franklin wins the women’s race. Rebecca Soni touched out by the Lithuanian sensation in the 100 breast.
Phelps is in the 200 m fly final with the 4th fastest time. He won his heat, which is basically enough to ensure making the final, so the fact that three swimmers finished ahead of him doesn’t necessarily mean much. There is no motivation to push it faster if you win your heat. But he will not dominate this event as he has in the past. If he wins, it will be a closer race.
Teammate McClary qualified right behind MP. Laszlo Cseh again fails to make a final