March 17th 2012 Milan-Sanremo - The Primavera - 298km

[c&cfan]

I hate betting against Cav, but I think Mr Fabian Cancellara will take the day.

i want canc or boonen to win this.

if not them, i don't mind cav or sagan.

contador for a future win.

 

[Wallace]

Sky will wrap like a cocoon around Cavendish, sweep him over the Poggio, and onto the flat final. If Sky arrives relatively intact at the end, then it's all over. I think all the other teams know this. Cancellara won't be able to do that "drop everyone and time trial to the finish" thing on a flat road against the Sky train. The other teams have to keep the pace so high over the Cipressa and Poggio that Sky gets disrupted and Cav can't keep up. So Sagan and Gilbert are the only real choices for riders who might be able to disrupt the seeming-inevitable. If the two of them could work together... that would be awesome to watch.

By the way--I can't stand Cavendish, don't like watching him race or win, and think he's a snotty little ***. But I'd be surprised if he doesn't win.

 

[Swede1]

Hmm I'd like to see Cancellara win. Boonen and Freire are other riders I can see winning. Sagan seems to be incredibly strong, but he has yet to do will in a really long race. Like the world champs last year, or sanremo a couple of years ago.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

nibali will push a massive tempo up the poggio drop most of the sprinters and freire will pip sagan for the finish line.

you heard it here first

phil and di luca will smoke the poggio that's for sure.

i love this race.

i love this race too. And not bad calls by all youse. They'll all be throwing punches. I'll go with Oscarito.

 

[skidmark]

Dont know what your definition of quitely is?
I certainly wouldnt call his perfomance in Strade-Bianche quiet

Well, that was impressive, but nothing compared to the last 2 years of 'oh my god, I don't see any way this man can be beaten'. Especially last year. The previous year he had shown his class by 1) Winning E3 Prijs with a canny attack anticipating the sprint, 2) Winning Flanders by riding everyone off his wheel, then riding Boonen off his wheel, then 3) Attacking - sitting in the saddle - from 50km out at Paris-Roubaix without giving a f*ck about 'calculated racing' and building up an embarrassing lead before coasting to the win. A year of percolation had really cemented how amazing those performances were. Then, winning E3 again as the most heavily marked man of the year, it just seemed like game over. That's what I mean by 'unbeatable form'. But then he was beaten, so he seemed more human, even though his chase in the final kms of Roubaix last year was about as impressive as his solo win the year before. Now the expectations aren't as white hot.

So yes, compared to that, having a nice win in Strade Bianche and some strong attacks in Oman/Qatar are pretty quiet.

 

[shalgo]

Well, that was impressive, but nothing compared to the last 2 years of 'oh my god, I don't see any way this man can be beaten'. Especially last year. The previous year he had shown his class by 1) Winning E3 Prijs with a canny attack anticipating the sprint, 2) Winning Flanders by riding everyone off his wheel, then riding Boonen off his wheel, then 3) Attacking - sitting in the saddle - from 50km out at Paris-Roubaix without giving a f*ck about 'calculated racing' and building up an embarrassing lead before coasting to the win. A year of percolation had really cemented how amazing those performances were. Then, winning E3 again as the most heavily marked man of the year, it just seemed like game over. That's what I mean by 'unbeatable form'. But then he was beaten, so he seemed more human, even though his chase in the final kms of Roubaix last year was about as impressive as his solo win the year before. Now the expectations aren't as white hot.

So yes, compared to that, having a nice win in Strade Bianche and some strong attacks in Oman/Qatar are pretty quiet.

Yes, but you were talking about him "quietly slipping into unbeatable form." I don't see how performances 10 months earlier could say anything about the form he is bringing into the race. If you look at his January-early March performances over the past several years, this year's have been at least as good as those in the previous years.

 

[hfer07]

One thing I'm 100% certain: Coldeportes won't do a damn thing in this race
as some folks already wrote-IF Sky controls the race & bring Cav in safe place after the Poggio-then is set for him to get his 2nd win. I just don't know how the other teams are going to play their cards, but Cance, Nibali/Sagan, Boonen & Oscarito surely come up with something to disrupt the Sky's train.

 

[Eric8-A]

Sky will wrap like a cocoon around Cavendish, sweep him over the Poggio, and onto the flat final. If Sky arrives relatively intact at the end, then it's all over. I think all the other teams know this. Cancellara won't be able to do that "drop everyone and time trial to the finish" thing on a flat road against the Sky train. The other teams have to keep the pace so high over the Cipressa and Poggio that Sky gets disrupted and Cav can't keep up. So Sagan and Gilbert are the only real choices for riders who might be able to disrupt the seeming-inevitable. If the two of them could work together... that would be awesome to watch.

By the way--I can't stand Cavendish, don't like watching him race or win, and think he's a snotty little ***. But I'd be surprised if he doesn't win.

Surely they'll be looking after him like crazy, which is nuts since I thing EBH is their best option. But I can't see the entirety of the Sky team surviving to the finish and doing what you said. And I hate Cavendish so much that I too do not like see him win.

For the past two years I've been rooting for Boonen to win this race, and I'll be doing it again this year. But if it can't be him, there are several other who I would like to see walk away with the win.

If Cancellara wins, I would like to see him win by breaking away from the group to ruin it for them in the way that he did when he won stage 3 of the '07 tour.

 

[42x16ss]

One thing I'm 100% certain: Coldeportes won't do a damn thing in this race
as some folks already wrote-IF Sky controls the race & bring Cav in safe place after the Poggio-then is set for him to get his 2nd win. I just don't know how the other teams are going to play their cards, but Cance, Nibali/Sagan, Boonen & Oscarito surely come up with something to disrupt the Sky's train.

The scary thing with Sky at a race like this is that if Cavendish does get shelled out the back then they still have EBH who is much stronger in the hills and only slightly slower in a sprint. If Sky do lose control of the race but EBH is still in contact with the leaders I doubt they will panic.

I'm picking a similar race to last year with a reduced bunch/large breakaway sprint won by one of the riders mentioned above (except Cav). IMO guys like Haussler, Chavanel, Van Avermaet, Valverde (if racing) and Gerrans (also if racing) are also in with a chance

 

[Eric8-A]

I'm picking a similar race to last year with a reduced bunch/large breakaway sprint won by one of the riders mentioned above (except Cav). IMO guys like Haussler, Chavanel, Van Avermaet, Valverde (if racing) and Gerrans (also if racing) are also in with a chance

I think you're the first to mention Haussler.

 

[42x16ss]

I thing you're the first to mention Haussler.

Yep, pretty sure I am. That's why I said he's also in with a chance IMO

 

[AussieGoddess]

I cant beleive the amount of people who have Sagan as 5*

For mine he has yet to prove himself in a classic. Yes he is good, yes his performance in TA was good .... but its one thing to do it in a stage race, when the pace is not so high and the GC guys are not going for it ... and quite another to do it in a monument.

The stage in TA was 250km and he won it in 7hrs20mins. AGR last year was 260km and Phil won it in 6hrs30mins. That is a whole different ball game.

I think Cavendish will give it a pretty serious go .... but I hope that Phil will make a miraculous recovery ... or if not that Hushovd or Boonen take it.

 

[orangerider]

Going with Freire for the win. Sagan will be too heavily marked. Boonen not fast enough for the sprint. Gilbert wont have the legs. Hushovd will somehow get lost in the shuffle. Cavendish wont make it up the hill for the selection. Freire will sneak behind the strongmen then position himself for the perfect win.

 

[kjetilraknerud]

I certainly hope that Sky will give EBH one or two helpers up the hills, or at least release him from Cav-duty if Cav struggles up the hills.

 

[spalco]

probably marco went even faster in 1999 on cipressa.beautiful:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lfKGMYKGB4g

Hahaha, love @1:12 the guys in the peloton looking at Pantani sprinting past them with wtf looks on their faces.

 

[little-ear]

why so surprised?2009 was a fast year in cycling

that 2009 time ascent was confirmed by lots of sources including cassani i think

I can´t believe it

Do you remember this edition ? On the Cipressa Scarponi came to the front and the pace was high. The peloton split, but all the sprinters were still around with the beginning of the Poggio. As the Poggio began QuickStep put Chavanel on the front as a stopper. He kept the tempo steadily, but not too fast. Two or three times he looked around, climbed from one side of the street to the other. Rebellin´s attack came only with 1,5 km before the top und than Pipo´s counter.

for me, it was a massive disappointment

 

[auscyclefan94]

BMC to finally make their mark on 2012 and take out La Primavera with a dominating performance...yes this is wishful thinking but I think Lelangue is a smart enough cookie to have something planned with his big riders including Gilbert.

 

[Kvinto]

Freire is the biggest favourite for this, a perfect race for Oscar and his form is good. Cavendish can win it too but i see him as one big 'IF'. If Sagan wins it certainly won't be from a bunch sprint, hence he is not among biggest favourites.

 

[dlwssonic]

just watch BMC will destroy the poggio

 

[TeoSheva]

Can I say Ventoso ftw? and Marcato?

 

[taiwan]

Can I say Ventoso ftw? and Marcato?

I like your style.

They're outsiders for sure, but Ventoso has showed form and Marcato has to be allowed another bite at the cherry. He was deceptively close last time, coming off the bike on the Poggio descent.

 

[dlwssonic]

Sick or not, he will try. And his acceleration should still be the fastest

EDIT: Seriously though I still believe that Phil can make something of this MSR. It would not be the first time we've seen him do amazing stuff.

Haha its just a mild fever, you bet gilbert will be back to create trouble at MSR, whether he is successful is a whole different story.

 

[pastronef]

Valverde (if racing) and Gerrans (also if racing) are also in with a chance

Gerrans is not racing, Valverde i don't know

 

[jens_attacks]

already can see hoogerland going on the cipressa.who will go with him?

 

[TeoSheva]

I like your style.

They're outsiders for sure, but Ventoso has showed form and Marcato has to be allowed another bite at the cherry. He was deceptively close last time, coming off the bike on the Poggio descent.

thanks!

anyway, Ventoso on yesterday finished just 16 second behind JRO, so the form is definitely good. To have a good results he needs a selective course, but will be difficult to outsprint Sagan in that case...

Marcato needs an attack to win....

EDIT: another surprising name can be Colli