March 17th 2012 Milan-Sanremo - The Primavera - 298km

[Froome19]

No, I was just too tired to make a decent post.

But I don't think that Boonen is in a great shape. He did some work for the team in Paris-Nice, but that didn't impress me much. There's also the fact that paris-nice lacked a really long stage as an ideal build-up to MSR, in contrast with stages of 230 and 250km in T/A.
I also don't believe that he's got his winner's instinct back. Boonen in 2004 would throw his bike to the other end of the street when he got beaten in a mass sprint in the tour, this year he didn't seem to care much after his defeat in the omloop.

But I do hope he wins MSR.
And E3-prijs, gent-wevelgem, ronde van Vlaanderen, Paris-Roubaix, belgian nationals, 5 stages in the tour, olympics, world championchips and paris-tours.

You conveintly missed out that he won a stage in P-N and was 3rd on GC. And how can you miss out his omloop perfomance and Qatar wins.
In short he has showed much better form than any other contender asides from Fabian

I don't know how about the Spanish Nationals RR parcours, but as for your second example its profile is way better for attacks than Poggio

In fact the likes of Gilbert would love Poggio to be a half shorter but twice as steep

I was jsut saying that it was a possibility as Contador has shown some similar perfomances, I dont expect him to and it is very unlikely but...
Anyway it seems like by that most of contador's attack was on the flat last KM leading to the finsih

 

[Parrulo]

No, I was just too tired to make a decent post.

But I don't think that Boonen is in a great shape. He did some work for the team in Paris-Nice, but that didn't impress me much. There's also the fact that paris-nice lacked a really long stage as an ideal build-up to MSR, in contrast with stages of 230 and 250km in T/A.
I also don't believe that he's got his winner's instinct back. Boonen in 2004 would throw his bike to the other end of the street when he got beaten in a mass sprint in the tour, this year he didn't seem to care much after his defeat in the omloop.

But I do hope he wins MSR.
And E3-prijs, gent-wevelgem, ronde van Vlaanderen, Paris-Roubaix, belgian nationals, 5 stages in the tour, olympics, world championchips and paris-tours.

as if boonen needed any warm up doing long stages to handle the distance of M-SR, he has one of the best engines in the world for long distances he, freire and canc are probably the only guys in the peloton who would have loved if M-SR was 400k long

 

[Froome19]

as if boonen needed any warm up doing long stages to handle the distance of M-SR, he has one of the best engines in the world for long distances he, freire and canc are probably the only guys in the peloton who would have loved if M-SR was 400k long

And Gilbert?

 

[Parrulo]

And Gilbert?

ya and gilbert sorry, tho if i had to rank them as better rider handling long races based on pure talent i would go with freire > boonen > canc = gilbert

 

[Echoes]

It didn't use to be a sprinters' classic, but since Zabel's first win there have been 10/14 editions won by sprinters, and of the others, Tchmil and Pozzato only just beat them home, finishing in the same time as the bunch gallop behind. Only Cancellara and Bettini have managed to foil the sprinters.

In the last 6 years, 3-3. I think/hope we're heading towards the right direction.

Had Pozzato shared the workload with Ballan, they would've had a 10 second gap in their favour.

And in 1998, Zabel (Telekom) only won because Colombo (Ballan Team) made the chase behind Alberto Elli who was on his way to winning it. A move that stinks corruption 4 miles around. Zabel had no teammates left. What's more he admitted to ****. His wins should really exit history books.

My theory: http://forum.cyclingnews.com/showthread.php?t=15457&highlight=Sanremo

Last year's edition was won by a sprinter, of course, but was at last not a bunch sprint. If we can have another edition like that, then there will be no complaints.

He didn't win it as a sprinter. He had to counter Cancellara's attacks, all by himself and took advantage of Poz' stupid attitude. When there's a lead group ahead like that one, all the responsibility of the workload should be on the fast man's shoulders, basics of cycling but not for Mr Pozzato.

Hard it is alright, but what does straightness have to do with anything? And I wouldn't say it's harder than Flanders. All in all it's the easiest monument.

In turns, you slow down and thus can have some rest.

I don't know how about the Spanish Nationals RR parcours, but as for your second example its profile is way better for attacks than Poggio

In fact the likes of Gilbert would love Poggio to be a half shorter but twice as steep

It happened after 210km. Poggio after 290km is harder.

 

[Four Winds]

I love MSR and I love this forum sometimes

A Sky train ain't gonna happen, just like there was no HTC train when Cav won before. It's all just as "easy" as keeping the pace high over the Poggio- just like all the previous years. Sky will not be the only team hoping for a sprint.

Some of you guys make 300km sound like a trip down to the shops

 

[Froome19]

ya and gilbert sorry, tho if i had to rank them as better rider handling long races based on pure talent i would go with freire > boonen > canc = gilbert

I'm not convinced in LBL last year, he had definitely the most left in the tank, and the reason the Schlecks couldnt attack him was because he has so much more left in the legs, considering that the schlecks consider their biggest strength to be their ability to be better over longer stages, I would say that Gilbert is certainly one of the best, as out of GC contenders A. Schleck has the most endurance (see his comments about Alpe de huez stage) yet if he couldnt match Gilbert then ...

 

[El Pistolero]

When Gilbert is in top shape, his biggest weapon is the fact that he's very hard to break. He'll attack you not once or twice, but 3 or 4 times. Just look at GP Québec, he just kept attacking and never cracked. Or at the queen stage of the Tour of Belgium where he made everyone suffer in his wheels for many kilometers on a piece of false flat. That's what I call beauty. You could see the pain dripping from their faces. I hadn't seen so much suffering since Cancellara's performance at the E3 Prijs Harelbeke.

 

[Swede1]

That Spanish nationals, however, would have been a bunch sprint if it hadn't been Rojas with him. Movistar had several people on the front of the péloton and the gap was small, but they sat up knowing Rojas would beat Contador in a two-up sprint. Euskaltel tried to pull it back together for Koldo, but didn't have the strength in depth when it came to flat run-in engines. Desierto de las Palmas is a tougher climb than Poggio too (though comes after less distance), and the race went over it a few times, so was an overall more intensive climbing day than San Remo ever is, and even in a similar situation to that in Castellón, the teams and riders trying to pull the attack back will likely be stronger suited for the situation than Euskaltel.

Ahh I was in Spain during the nationals, but didnt have time to find a train or somethin to be there.

 

[luckyboy]

Hopefully Freire will take this.

If not then Boonen or Sagan.

 

[Swede1]

Hopefully Freire will take this.

If not then Boonen or Sagan.

I wouldnt mind if the race was like last year with a small group coming to the line together. That was awesome. Except this time maybe Cancellara or Boonen takes it. Of course if Sagan manages to survive the distance i wouldnt mind him winning.

 

[Eric8-A]

I love MSR and I love this forum sometimes

A Sky train ain't gonna happen, just like there was no HTC train when Cav won before. It's all just as "easy" as keeping the pace high over the Poggio- just like all the previous years. Sky will not be the only team hoping for a sprint.

Some of you guys make 300km sound like a trip down to the shops

I remember hearing that the only reason Cavendish won was because of Hincapie.



Nibali is showing some great form. He can and probably will attack, but if it sticks, we'll have to see.

 

[skidmark]

No, I was just too tired to make a decent post.

But I don't think that Boonen is in a great shape. He did some work for the team in Paris-Nice, but that didn't impress me much. There's also the fact that paris-nice lacked a really long stage as an ideal build-up to MSR, in contrast with stages of 230 and 250km in T/A.
I also don't believe that he's got his winner's instinct back. Boonen in 2004 would throw his bike to the other end of the street when he got beaten in a mass sprint in the tour, this year he didn't seem to care much after his defeat in the omloop.

So wait, 'did some work for the team' like, uh, winning a stage? And not having poor sportsmanship to me is more of a sign of maturity than 'not having winner's instinct'. Having winner's instinct is more to me about, well, winning, which Boonen has already done this year more than last year.

 

[Tei6chai]

I remember hearing that the only reason Cavendish won was because of Hincapie.

So you didn't see it?

From what I saw, Hincapie did a great job of positioning Cav for the sprint ... but Cav descended like a rocket to get back to the front after the Poggio, and he did that pretty much under his own steam.

I foresee a similar scenario this year, if the non-pure sprinters leave it until the Poggio to attack Cav.

They and their teams are going to need to work much harder and sacrifice a lot more from a lot further out, in my view.

 

[Eric8-A]

So you didn't see it?

No I did not.

 

[Wilba60]

Gerrans is not racing, Valverde i don't know

I didn't think Gerrans was riding either as he was working with the Paris/Nice group towards the classics but going by the Cyclingnews report below and it is also on the Greenedge website......If he is indeed racing and is ok after his fall at P/N he will be a real chance if Goss doesn't stay with the front group. Cooke is also racing very well and if healthy again, I think he will put Goss in the gun position.

"Canadian champion Svein Tuft will provide the diesel engine for the Australian team's train, having demonstrated his ability to click off countless kilometers on the front of the race at Tirreno-Adriatico. Stuart O'Grady provides tactical savvy, while Simon Gerrans will be the squad's go-to guy if a small group escapes on the Poggio or Cipressa. The team also brings Baden Cooke, Matt Wilson, Sebastian Langeveld and Tomas Vaitkus, according to the team's website"

 

[Eric8-A]

I just thought of this and it might/might not happen, or it can be just a dumb theory. But I was thinking that maybe one of Sky's tactics will be to send EBH to the front during the crucial part of the race and drive the front for the group that's ahead, but slow them down in an attempt to make sure Cavendish makes contact with them once the hills come.

 

[Ferminal]

I didn't think Gerrans was riding either as he was working with the Paris/Nice group towards the classics but going by the Cyclingnews report below and it is also on the Greenedge website......If he is indeed racing and is ok after his fall at P/N he will be a real chance if Goss doesn't stay with the front group. Cooke is also racing very well and if healthy again, I think he will put Goss in the gun position.

"Canadian champion Svein Tuft will provide the diesel engine for the Australian team's train, having demonstrated his ability to click off countless kilometers on the front of the race at Tirreno-Adriatico. Stuart O'Grady provides tactical savvy, while Simon Gerrans will be the squad's go-to guy if a small group escapes on the Poggio or Cipressa. The team also brings Baden Cooke, Matt Wilson, Sebastian Langeveld and Tomas Vaitkus, according to the team's website"

Not sure if it was always on Gerrans' calendar, think it says more about Goss than Gerrans.

 

[the asian]

Boonen must be the favourite as he has shown some impressive early form. EBH did well winning a stage at T/A, so if Cav drops off he will have a good chance.
BMC hasn't shown anything this season so far, so I'll be a bit surprised if Hushovd can pull it off.

 

[vladimir]

Boonen must be the favourite as he has shown some impressive early form. EBH did well winning a stage at T/A, so if Cav drops off he will have a good chance.
BMC hasn't shown anything this season so far, so I'll be a bit surprised if Hushovd can pull it off.

Well, the gambling community stronly disagrees
You can get Boonen at 17,5 at Betfair now, While Cavendish is as low as 4,4.

 

[Frosty]

Bennati did a very fast tt yesterday. Does this affect anyone's opinion of him? To me it looks like he should be there in any bunch finish but even if some of the sprinters mentioned cant make it then i still feel that he wont have the speed to win. Could stand a good chance if he could sneak on the back of a late break though although i dont know how likely this is. Would have thought that RadioShack's tactics will be for Cancellara to break away and then have Bennati as the man if it comes to a bunch finish.

 

[mortand]

Sacha Modolo as an outside (outside) bet? He was kind of quiet in Tirreno-Adriatico, but he's shown some form earlier this year and he can handle the distance - that 4th place in MSR 2010 as a 22-year old neo-pro was seriously impressive. I must admit, though, I hardly followed T-A this year, so he might've been totally off his game.

 

[pastronef]

Not sure if it was always on Gerrans' calendar, think it says more about Goss than Gerrans.

yes, until last week Gerrans wasn't on the Sanremo riders list

 

[greenedge]

Wouldn't be a smart move. Nibali will me much more needed afterwards in the downhill and the final km's to keep the pack together. If Nibali kills himself up the Poggio Sagan will be left with no teammates alongside him and a select group of riders who will be looking to drop Sagan.

But we saw last year that Nibali did the exact same, yet still finished in the group. They also did not attack Goss ( so much ). I'm sure Cappechi/ Bodnar would still be there. Nibali will probably the best rider there with climbing form.

However my 5 favourites are
1. Cancellara- everyone thinks this could be another one of his years. Has shown great form/ looks to be peaking for the Classics.
2. Cav/ EBH. If Cav does not survive EBH might. Two of the strongest sprinters.
3. Sagan/ Nibali- good tandem, strong team and Sagan could win in a mass sprint or in a small group.
4. Boonen might be better suited for the cobbled classics but he will be motivated. I can imagine him winning in a sprint if Skys' train derails.
5. Ballan. He is my dark horse, along with Haussler ( not that unexpected though ). Hushovd if in good form will also goo well- but may not make it into an 8 man group like last year.

Other favourites of course include Goss, Greipel, Petacchi, Haussler and Freire. I am excitedly hoping Goss can win again.

 

[greenedge]

You conveintly missed out that he won a stage in P-N and was 3rd on GC. And how can you miss out his omloop perfomance and Qatar wins.
In short he has showed much better form than any other contender asides from Fabian

Valverde came 3rd at P-N.