Mathieu Van der Poel

[Salvarani]

Indeed! But what part of my post did I exaggerate?

Calling experienced pro and classics riders "kermesse"?

That AD were so hilarious compared to everybody. They had the best equipped team against shattered teams, who fielded many youngsters, where many star riders were out for a few teams.

You are exaggerating to drive home your point that they might be on something. Cool, they might, but you are still over-selling it.

There are bunch of other factors to take into account for the race dynamics

 

[masking_agent]

is Alpecin the new Ferrari team?

similar but, the new Luigi Cecchini team

 

[nayr497]

2010 Paris Roubaix average speed 39.32kmh (the one where Fabian had a motor)

2012 Paris Roubaix average speed 43.4kmh (Last time Boonen won)

2024 Paris Roubaix average speed 47.85kmh (And they had a freaking chicane)

Canc and Boonen don't make top 50 in todays race. Max Walscheid Joey Rosskopf is a superior rider to both of them.

In fact, every rider (even those outside of the time cut) beat Canc, and they also beat Boonen. Both are OTL in today's race.

You do the math.

Is he doping? Are you seriously asking that question?

Wow. I'm under no illusions about PEDs, but this really makes me want to completely tune out of even checking highlights and results.

Two of the best would be pack fodder? That's absolutely insane.

No dang way have nutrition and bike aero came that far in twelve years. This just screams that the entire peloton is on something wild if that's the average speed. With the chicane.

 

[nayr497]

are you sure that MF is enough nowadays? I mean, I'm not so sure he even knows what they're using.

there's one thing that drives me crazy, new fans (those born from 2000/2001 onwards) call you boomer, ignorant conspiracy theorist.
You recognize them because they have the pronouns in their bio, she/her he/him, for them doping does not exist, these performances are all natural.

I completely agree! It seems like the newer fans to road cycling who are a bit younger either have no clue about PEDs or just don't care. It's weird to me as someone who has been pretty tuned in to road racing since ~2005.

 

[ChewbaccaDefense]

Wow. I'm under no illusions about PEDs, but this really makes me want to completely tune out of even checking highlights and results.

Two of the best would be pack fodder? That's absolutely insane.

No dang way have nutrition and bike aero came that far in twelve years. This just screams that the entire peloton is on something wild if that's the average speed. With the chicane.

I overstated my case, because there was a strong tailwind, Sunday. However, those guys are setting the fastest time, every time, and the pack fodder are many times, still ahead of the fastes previous time. It's wild.

 

[Nomad]

I completely agree! It seems like the newer fans to road cycling who are a bit younger either have no clue about PEDs or just don't care. It's weird to me as someone who has been pretty tuned in to road racing since ~2005.

They have a clue...they just don't care. It's like with "Big 4" in the U.S. (NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL), people just turn a blind eye.

There were some drug positives in the NFL last season that barely made the news. This season in MLB there's already been a couple of positives involving top players for stanozolo (Winstrol), and this usually noteworthy "breaking news" was hardly mentioned on the sports channels. There's been no uproar from baseball fans or the media over this - it's business as usual. Lol

As long as the fan's favorite player, athlete, rider, etc isn't popped or implicated for doping, they're not going to care. The bottom line with sports these days is that people want to be entertained:

View: https://youtube.com/shorts/ZtyjY6VjF9Q?si=5-RYBLY2dQ-Di8YF

 

[Ripper]

Calling experienced pro and classics riders "kermesse"?

That AD were so hilarious compared to everybody. They had the best equipped team against shattered teams, who fielded many youngsters, where many star riders were out for a few teams.

You are exaggerating to drive home your point that they might be on something. Cool, they might, but you are still over-selling it.

There are bunch of other factors to take into account for the race dynamics

I did not call them a set of kermesse racers, that was the post I replied to. And I actually defended kermesse racers as pretty hardcore.

And yes, I did diss AD, and thought out loud who would of thunk they'd be the race dominant team. But that is not exactly an exaggeration when you look at AD normally in classics.

 

[Ripper]

its not like VDP is known for soloing basically all his cyclocross races since forever. Heck in the 2017/2018 seasons he just went lap 1 and nobody ever saw him for another hour.

VDP soloing in itself is not weird. His TT is lacking because the guy never trains on a TT bike.

Cx and TT might look somewhat similar on heart rate, but his efforts in Cx are entirely different than the types of TT's he has put together this year with respect to power and physiology.

Look, I'm not trying to say that Mathieu is not super talented. But the types of time trials he is putting together now is not like anything he has done before and I would argue or not comparable to his cyclocross demonstrations of power. Are there relatable characteristics? No doubt! Was it to be expected he could do 40 to 60 km time trials and pull away from everyone ... I would say the book of opinion on that would be no.

 

[Cookster15]

Wow. I'm under no illusions about PEDs, but this really makes me want to completely tune out of even checking highlights and results.

Two of the best would be pack fodder? That's absolutely insane.

No dang way have nutrition and bike aero came that far in twelve years. This just screams that the entire peloton is on something wild if that's the average speed. With the chicane.

Do we know the wind direction and speed at PR these years? 2010, 2012 and 2024? We know this year had a strong tailwind. Pretty sure they were doping to some degree in 2010 and 2012. I think wind and tech (wider tyres and aero) rather than simply doping is a better explanation.

 

[Salvarani]

I did not call them a set of kermesse racers, that was the post I replied to. And I actually defended kermesse racers as pretty hardcore.

And yes, I did diss AD, and thought out loud who would of thunk they'd be the race dominant team. But that is not exactly an exaggeration when you look at AD normally in classics.

Who would have thunk a team like SQS would be nowhere in the classics a few years ago?

Things change.

AD have strengthened and improved for many years now. They have gone all in for these races and their team is built to be a force in these races. just looking at their squad and the races they won in recent years with many of their riders.

So I do think you are just exaggerating this point. They are one of few predominantly focused classics-team in the peloton, they arguably have the best classics rider in their team... so that they are dominant is really no shock. The core of their classics team been riding together for years and they added guys like Dillier, Philipsen, Groves, SKA and so on with time. They are strong and pretty much a well-oiled machine with their experience together.

 

[hulkgogan]

I did not call them a set of kermesse racers, that was the post I replied to. And I actually defended kermesse racers as pretty hardcore.

And yes, I did diss AD, and thought out loud who would of thunk they'd be the race dominant team. But that is not exactly an exaggeration when you look at AD normally in classics.

It was me that mentioned kermesse riders which was actually a tongue in cheek quote from the Lantern Rouge pod, but he's not wrong. Those three guys that blew it apart at 150km are currently ranked 168, 685, and 815th. Their average salary is probably less than 90% of the riders they dropped. To be fair, Kielich does look to be a genuine talent.

 

[Salvarani]

It was me that mentioned kermesse riders which was actually a tongue in cheek quote from the Lantern Rouge pod, but he's not wrong. Those three guys that blew it apart at 150km are currently ranked 168, 685, and 815th. Their average salary is probably less than 90% of the riders they dropped. To be fair, Kielich does look to be a genuine talent.

They all have come up riding these races and riding together with Alpecin + MVDP for 4-5 years now. Most of them around 30 and have many years of training, races and gained the endurance + experience. Not taking account for other things, because we dont know. It is just speculation and guesswork.

If anything they are underrated as loyal and good domestic riders. Ranking means nothing in this regard. Add guys like Dillier who has finished 2nd in PR , SKA, another star in Philipsen and you have a great team around MVDP.

And after their work was done they dropped as well. Their finish-line was much earlier.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Cx and TT might look somewhat similar on heart rate, but his efforts in Cx are entirely different than the types of TT's he has put together this year with respect to power and physiology.

Look, I'm not trying to say that Mathieu is not super talented. But the types of time trials he is putting together now is not like anything he has done before and I would argue or not comparable to his cyclocross demonstrations of power. Are there relatable characteristics? No doubt! Was it to be expected he could do 40 to 60 km time trials and pull away from everyone ... I would say the book of opinion on that would be no.

maybe not in the bigger races, but very early in his road career he already had some longe race attacks that stuck. Binck Banck comes to mind with 70k to go, dropping the last guy with 50k to go and solo from there, to win. And a day later he finished 6th in LBL.
Or what about Tirreno 2021 55k solo in cold and rain with a steep muro every lap. He's definitely done crazy *** before, just not in monuments. And let's be honest, without Van Aert, a strong visma, a strong Trek there was no opposition left

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Wow. I'm under no illusions about PEDs, but this really makes me want to completely tune out of even checking highlights and results.

Two of the best would be pack fodder? That's absolutely insane.

No dang way have nutrition and bike aero came that far in twelve years. This just screams that the entire peloton is on something wild if that's the average speed. With the chicane.

tme to check of the covid vaccines didnt accidentally contain superhuman DNA lol

 

[pastronef]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1777712167602491827

View: https://twitter.com/matosvelo/status/1777712167602491827

 

[Ripper]

maybe not in the bigger races, but very early in his road career he already had some longe race attacks that stuck. Binck Banck comes to mind with 70k to go, dropping the last guy with 50k to go and solo from there, to win. And a day later he finished 6th in LBL.
Or what about Tirreno 2021 55k solo in cold and rain with a steep muro every lap. He's definitely done crazy *** before, just not in monuments. And let's be honest, without Van Aert, a strong visma, a strong Trek there was no opposition left

Yes, thank you for pointing out his other intermittent suspicious performances.

 

[Ripper]

Who would have thunk a team like SQS would be nowhere in the classics a few years ago?

Things change.

AD have strengthened and improved for many years now. They have gone all in for these races and their team is built to be a force in these races. just looking at their squad and the races they won in recent years with many of their riders.

So I do think you are just exaggerating this point. They are one of few predominantly focused classics-team in the peloton, they arguably have the best classics rider in their team... so that they are dominant is really no shock. The core of their classics team been riding together for years and they added guys like Dillier, Philipsen, Groves, SKA and so on with time. They are strong and pretty much a well-oiled machine with their experience together.

I think we're just going to disagree on whether it was eyebrow raising or not that they were as dominant as they were. And that, of course, is totally okay. But just to be clear, I'm not claiming they're a bunch of donkeys, but I do find their collective performances to be "exaggerated" compared to where they were up to last year. 😉

 

[Salvarani]

I think we're just going to disagree on whether it was eyebrow raising or not that they were as dominant as they were. And that, of course, is totally okay. But just to be clear, I'm not claiming they're a bunch of donkeys, but I do find their collective performances to be "exaggerated" compared to where they were up to last year. 😉

No problem. As I said, I am not vouching for any rider or team to be "clean"... but I also wouldnt underestimate that their focus and hard work over the years also be paying off. Especially, compared to other teams. Most of their core for these races have raced with each other a lot. They have the best leader in MVDP and they ride with confidence. It is just as much a physchological thing as it is a physical one, imo, that could explain their very good performances.... which they have have been doing for a few years winning races. Not just this season.

I think the optics that they appear so dominant this season also has to do with Visma being severly decimated by crashes or their best riders being out of form during this classics campaign. Many other teams seem to be very weak as well when it comes to their classics team. It doesnt help that important riders for Trek also crashes out and so on. SQS being nowhere and there arent many teams that have a super-great team for the classics anymore. They were pretty unchallenged in taking the reigns. Everything has went ADs way this season so far, which is rare, in these races and they been spared from any crashes to their best riders.

 

[jb1989]

If you were going to have someone win PR with such a margin like this clean, I feel this would be it.

To start with VdP, for beginners you pretty much couldn't ask for better genetics on both the maternal and paternal sides. If you were going to have a rider that could deliver superhuman (clean) performances, this is what you would want. Add to this bike skills - you could see even on tv that when he was solo, every cobbled corner would be another few seconds gained on the chasers, and add to that the energy taken to accelerate up to speed if you slowed down.

Add to this teams - AD did a great job, and whilst their performances are standout, bear in mind that people like Vermeesch are also excellent bike handlers. If you have ever ridden cobbles, the difference in ease between riding them well and badly is significant in terms of speed and energy.

The other teams were also weak - once Pedersen as big name had exhausted in his chase, no-one else really took it up, and without teams in big numbers (i.e. full strength Jumbo) this was never going to be coordinated and was down to individuals.

With regards to speeds vs say 2010 Cancellara - I was watching back earlier and it's worth remembering that they were basically on cyclocross bikes with shallow wheels. There is a huge difference between these and an Aeroad with deep sections, not to mention advances in clothing and other aerodynamics. We aren't talking marginal here is terms of speed gains.

On top of the general speed, I would suggest that comfort is massively improved too - again, if you've ridden cobbles, there is a massive difference between say 120psi tubs (2010) vs say 60psi tubeless now. Not only does this allow more speed, it saves energy and fatigue.

Most of these also apply to Flanders too really.

 

[Ripper]

If you were going to have someone win PR with such a margin like this clean, I feel this would be it.

To start with VdP, for beginners you pretty much couldn't ask for better genetics on both the maternal and paternal sides. If you were going to have a rider that could deliver superhuman (clean) performances, this is what you would want. Add to this bike skills - you could see even on tv that when he was solo, every cobbled corner would be another few seconds gained on the chasers, and add to that the energy taken to accelerate up to speed if you slowed down.

Add to this teams - AD did a great job, and whilst their performances are standout, bear in mind that people like Vermeesch are also excellent bike handlers. If you have ever ridden cobbles, the difference in ease between riding them well and badly is significant in terms of speed and energy.

The other teams were also weak - once Pedersen as big name had exhausted in his chase, no-one else really took it up, and without teams in big numbers (i.e. full strength Jumbo) this was never going to be coordinated and was down to individuals.

With regards to speeds vs say 2010 Cancellara - I was watching back earlier and it's worth remembering that they were basically on cyclocross bikes with shallow wheels. There is a huge difference between these and an Aeroad with deep sections, not to mention advances in clothing and other aerodynamics. We aren't talking marginal here is terms of speed gains.

On top of the general speed, I would suggest that comfort is massively improved too - again, if you've ridden cobbles, there is a massive difference between say 120psi tubs (2010) vs say 60psi tubeless now. Not only does this allow more speed, it saves energy and fatigue.

Most of these also apply to Flanders too really.

All this is true. Their doping doctor helps too 😆

 

[ppanther92]

Wow. I'm under no illusions about PEDs, but this really makes me want to completely tune out of even checking highlights and results.

Two of the best would be pack fodder? That's absolutely insane.

No dang way have nutrition and bike aero came that far in twelve years. This just screams that the entire peloton is on something wild if that's the average speed. With the chicane.

I wrote it before - but no way that prime Boonen or Cancellara put in this year's edition would finish OTL.

Roubaix is just a race where average speeds are extremely volatile and depend on a multitude of factors. I generally see the uptake in speed as well across races but in the very specific case, its just also very selectively taken data points.

Or do we also think:

Cancellara would have finished the 1948 edition OTL - because thats what the data would indicate (without me knowing the 1948 course. But just as illustrative point - the edition that year was also 4+ km/h faster than 1947 and 1949)?

 

[Tim Cahill]

I wrote it before - but no way that prime Boonen or Cancellara put in this year's edition would finish OTL.

Roubaix is just a race where average speeds are extremely volatile and depend on a multitude of factors. I generally see the uptake in speed as well across races but in the very specific case, its just also very selectively taken data points.

Or do we also think:

Cancellara would have finished the 1948 edition OTL - because thats what the data would indicate (without me knowing the 1948 course. But just as illustrative point - the edition that year was also 4+ km/h faster than 1947 and 1949)?

Yes I think there are always odd outliers produced by race circumstances, tactics, weather conditions, so single data points and the odd warp-speed race alone can indicate whatever you want it to, it proves nothing. The problem is that the graph above isn't some sort of outlier or fluke, you plot the speed of pretty much every big classic and Grand Tour in the past 4 years and it will show the same thing.

If the increase in speeds were due to multiple marginal optimisations in technology, nutrition, training over many years then the data would look a bit more linear, things getting slowly faster. It is not change itself that gives it away but the rate of change, a massive noticeable spike in 2020 is hard to explain away with opaque references to more carbohydrates and 'these young lads being a different breed'. Sky won 7 Tours, Froome would be pack fodder on some of these climbs, are they now saying that everything they did in the 2010s was incorrect?

I always thought eventually with advancements that they could reach the level of Armstrong, but they already have done, the big red flag being waved is how much they are starting to look like Indurain, Pantani and the Gewiss-Ballan's of the world. No legal change in approach I know of can make anywhere near the difference like the unrestricted Erythropoietin and transfusion usage they had in the 90s.

 

[proffate]

If you were going to have someone win PR with such a margin like this clean, I feel this would be it.

To start with VdP, for beginners you pretty much couldn't ask for better genetics on both the maternal and paternal sides. If you were going to have a rider that could deliver superhuman (clean) performances, this is what you would want. Add to this bike skills - you could see even on tv that when he was solo, every cobbled corner would be another few seconds gained on the chasers, and add to that the energy taken to accelerate up to speed if you slowed down.

Add to this teams - AD did a great job, and whilst their performances are standout, bear in mind that people like Vermeesch are also excellent bike handlers. If you have ever ridden cobbles, the difference in ease between riding them well and badly is significant in terms of speed and energy.

The other teams were also weak - once Pedersen as big name had exhausted in his chase, no-one else really took it up, and without teams in big numbers (i.e. full strength Jumbo) this was never going to be coordinated and was down to individuals.

With regards to speeds vs say 2010 Cancellara - I was watching back earlier and it's worth remembering that they were basically on cyclocross bikes with shallow wheels. There is a huge difference between these and an Aeroad with deep sections, not to mention advances in clothing and other aerodynamics. We aren't talking marginal here is terms of speed gains.

On top of the general speed, I would suggest that comfort is massively improved too - again, if you've ridden cobbles, there is a massive difference between say 120psi tubs (2010) vs say 60psi tubeless now. Not only does this allow more speed, it saves energy and fatigue.

Most of these also apply to Flanders too really.

Yea we're talking 10s of watts at 50km/h. Maybe even 50w between frame, wheels, clothing, and rolling resistance.

The difference of frame and wheels alone between the Aeroad and the slowest bike that Tour magazine has tested in the last few years (2023 Specialissima) is 33 watts, and that's at 45kmh. Add on helmet, skinsuit, aero socks ...

Of course some aero-optimized bikes were already way better in ~2016 than in ~2010. But they still had narrow tires, aero socks were for triathletes, etc. etc. But that graph does show the difference didn't come overnight.

 

[NOT_NORMAL]

I wrote it before - but no way that prime Boonen or Cancellara put in this year's edition would finish OTL.

Roubaix is just a race where average speeds are extremely volatile and depend on a multitude of factors. I generally see the uptake in speed as well across races but in the very specific case, its just also very selectively taken data points.

Or do we also think:

Cancellara would have finished the 1948 edition OTL - because thats what the data would indicate (without me knowing the 1948 course. But just as illustrative point - the edition that year was also 4+ km/h faster than 1947 and 1949)?

Reasonable people will agree that one data point is not conclusive, unless it is really off the charts. But that is exactly what the apologists do; they focus on single data points and attempt to explain them with the usual nonsense: a once-in-a-generation talent (all six of them), marginal gains, weak competition, the weather, and so forth. As if we are all idiots who have no awareness of those things and they are here to enlighten us.

All of these wiseguys ignore the context:

1. It's not an anomaly, it's a pattern. Whether it's about climbing times or average speeds, records are being broken left, right, and centre.

2. This increase in the level of performance did not happen gradually, it was an abrupt change that occurred around 2020. This is well-documented on this forum, for example here: https://forum.cyclingnews.com/threads/power-data-estimates-for-the-climbing-stages.8839/page-138

3. Along with the increase in speed, we also saw a remarkable change in the nature of performances:

- The era of specialisation is over; we suddenly see riders who excel at every kind of terrain and discipline, winning combinations of races that were previously thought to be practically impossible to win.

- These same riders also experience almost no changes in form; they are able to perform at an exceptional level the whole year around.

- They are able to do these things while riding a lot faster than the previous generation, breaking record after record.

- All of the elite riders excel at time trialling, regardless of body type. Races are now frequently won through incredible individual efforts.

4. Despite the large increase in the general standard of performance, we suddenly see extremely young riders, even teenagers, win major races.

5. All of this began to manifest itself at the exact same time.

Any proposed reason for what is happening must be able to explain all of those things.

As for the graphic, we can see that the average speed in fact gradually became less volatile. We can also see that it was stable from 2012 to 2019. There was no race in 2020, and in 2021 we had the first rainy edition in a long time, which suppressed the speed. The massive increase in the level of performance since 2020 should be obvious to anyone but the blind and cannot be explained by "marginal gains".

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

yup, even at my *** level if I was on a pro TT bike in full aero kit I'd still go 10-15kph faster at the same watts