Menchov back in the light in 2012 at Katusha ?

[greenedge]

Yep, should be interesting if he has a bit of his 2009 and 2010 form, actually with 100km ITT in 2010 he might well have won the TDF...

It never made sense to me why he didn't join Katusha in 2010, must have been about the money and when Tchmil realized that he got a bit "vocal", things change...

Do you mean Giro form in 09. Because that does not relate to the TDF. Espescially since everyone complains of how bad the racing was in 09 and Menchov was still dropped.
Menchov's team will not be strong the only real help he will get is from Brutt and Silin ( who is now going to Astana sry ). Spilak might help but Kristoff is a rider for the flats. Galimzynayov might improve next year and go well in the sprints but i doubt he can win a stage now that Goss/ Renshaw are now also in the sprint. Moreno will probably be doing the same program as JROD ( spanish brotherhood )

I don't get how anyone can compare Katushas' team with Sky. Sky will have to pull for Cav probably all day whilst Katusha will organise a sprint train 2 riders back from Sky's lead rider in the last 15km. And Sky's mountain domestiques will also be better.

I am happy for Menchov as it seems logical that he should go to Katusha but i doubt he can win. Cadel and Contador in my view would be better time-triallists and are more likely to gain time in the mountains. Hell i think Levi might sneak his way ahead of Menchov.

@Gooner Karpets is going back to Movistar.

 

[karlboss]

@Gooner Karpets is going back to Movistar.

Must say that escaped me in my post also

 

[webvan]

Do you mean Giro form in 09. Because that does not relate to the TDF. Espescially since everyone complains of how bad the racing was in 09 and Menchov was still dropped.

No 2010, when he fnished third in the TDF, 2' down on Contador and 1'20" on Schleck. With another long ITT he would have passed Schleck for sure and possibly Contador, considering how he was ITTin that year (he beat him by 1'52" in Pauillac).

 

[The Hitch]

Agreed; I think 3rd is plenty reasonable... I could see the top three as Contador/Evans in which ever order then Menchov.

Menchov on form is a better tter than Evans, and we hear how its all about the tt. He should also be able to hold on as well as Evans on the climbs they have. Might lose a few seconds on the hills or in a crash or something but ability wise, if Cadel is the favourite then Menchov has to be up there too.

 

[jens_attacks]

if he prepares well i definitely can see him fighting for the podium.he will be very motivated

 

[airstream]

Menchov on form is a better tter than Evans, and we hear how its all about the tt. He should also be able to hold on as well as Evans on the climbs they have. Might lose a few seconds on the hills or in a crash or something but ability wise, if Cadel is the favourite then Menchov has to be up there too.

Very debatable. On the base of which mutual TT's (besides '08) do you make such a conclusion? I suppose they're approximately equal in the mountains as well, though Evans suffers work at uneven pace and selvages himself, being distanced, slightly better than Menchov.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Very debatable. On the base of which mutual TT's (besides '08) do you make such a conclusion? I suppose they're approximately equal in the mountains as well, though Evans suffers work at uneven pace and selvages himself, being distanced, slightly better than Menchov.

I'd say Menchov and Evans are comparable talents when it comes to GTs. Menchov as a TT rider has won the toughest of all GTs in recent years (Cinque Terre '09), lest we forget, which formed the backbone of his Giro win.

The fact of the matter is, they haven't faced each other in meaningful TTs often; in '07 Menchov wound up working for Rasmussen at the Tour while Evans had already shot his load at the Tour at the Vuelta, while in '09 and '10 at least one of the two underperformed for whatever reason.

Both are very good TT riders and, on form, very good climbers. Evans is more likely to fight on if he's not on form, whereas Menchov will let go; the same applies to their climbing. While we remember Menchov looking good when Sastre first attacked on Alpe d'Huez, but then being the first GT contender blown out the back door... it's also worth remembering that he finished with the heads of state there:

7 EVANS Cadel (SIL) +2'15"
8 MENCHOV Denis (RAB) +2'15"

In fact, in that '08 Tour, Menchov was very impressive indeed against Evans when it came to the TTs and climbing.

Stage 1: Evans gains 6" in small uphill finish
Stage 3: Evans gains 38" in split in the péloton
Stage 4: Evans gains 7" in mid-length ITT
Stage 6: Evans gains 6" in small uphill finish
Stage 10: Both riders finish together on Hautacam
Stage 15: Menchov gains 27" on Evans on Prato Nervoso
Stage 16: Evans gains 35" on Menchov on the descent of Bonette
Stage 17: Both riders finish together on Alpe d'Huez
Stage 20: Menchov gains 10" on Evans in long ITT.

So, overall, in the TTs and high mountain stages, Evans wins out by 5" - and as they crossed the summit of Bonette together, if we restrict it to climbing and TTing Menchov is 30" ahead.

Where Evans has the advantage over Menchov is not in the general ability as a cyclist - Menchov has shown that he can climb with Evans, and he can TT with Evans, when both are on song (and motivated, which is a key factor with Menchov). If Evans does have a natural advantage it's in his explosivity for short hill finishes - as you saw there, he gained time to Plumelec and to Super-Besse. Realistically where the big difference is is psychological; Evans is a more savvy rider who will be in the right places and not get caught in splits in the péloton, and Evans is a better bike handler. Menchov could possibly have gained more time to Prato Nervoso had he not fallen off going uphill, after launching an attack that only Andy Schleck could go with, and much of the time he lost to Evans was in that descent to Jausiers.

Menchov should have won the 2011 Vuelta had he been a bit less lackadaisical in week 1. He's also a year younger than Evans; both riders should be seen as very important contenders for the 2012 Tour. But Menchov will need to be alert, like Evans is, as well as being in form, if he wants to stand a chance. If both enter in comparable form, Evans will likely finish ahead. But it likely won't be because he's stronger, it will be because he's smarter.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

So, overall, in the TTs and high mountain stages, Evans wins out by 5" - and as they crossed the summit of Bonette together, if we restrict it to climbing and TTing Menchov is 30" ahead.

Menchov also crashed on Prato Nevoso, which cost him at least 15 seconds, IMO.

 

[El Pistolero]

I'd say Menchov and Evans are comparable talents when it comes to GTs. Menchov as a TT rider has won the toughest of all GTs in recent years (Cinque Terre '09), lest we forget, which formed the backbone of his Giro win.

The fact of the matter is, they haven't faced each other in meaningful TTs often; in '07 Menchov wound up working for Rasmussen at the Tour while Evans had already shot his load at the Tour at the Vuelta, while in '09 and '10 at least one of the two underperformed for whatever reason.

Both are very good TT riders and, on form, very good climbers. Evans is more likely to fight on if he's not on form, whereas Menchov will let go; the same applies to their climbing. While we remember Menchov looking good when Sastre first attacked on Alpe d'Huez, but then being the first GT contender blown out the back door... it's also worth remembering that he finished with the heads of state there:

7 EVANS Cadel (SIL) +2'15"
8 MENCHOV Denis (RAB) +2'15"

In fact, in that '08 Tour, Menchov was very impressive indeed against Evans when it came to the TTs and climbing.

Stage 1: Evans gains 6" in small uphill finish
Stage 3: Evans gains 38" in split in the péloton
Stage 4: Evans gains 7" in mid-length ITT
Stage 6: Evans gains 6" in small uphill finish
Stage 10: Both riders finish together on Hautacam
Stage 15: Menchov gains 27" on Evans on Prato Nervoso
Stage 16: Evans gains 35" on Menchov on the descent of Bonette
Stage 17: Both riders finish together on Alpe d'Huez
Stage 20: Menchov gains 10" on Evans in long ITT.

So, overall, in the TTs and high mountain stages, Evans wins out by 5" - and as they crossed the summit of Bonette together, if we restrict it to climbing and TTing Menchov is 30" ahead.

Where Evans has the advantage over Menchov is not in the general ability as a cyclist - Menchov has shown that he can climb with Evans, and he can TT with Evans, when both are on song (and motivated, which is a key factor with Menchov). If Evans does have a natural advantage it's in his explosivity for short hill finishes - as you saw there, he gained time to Plumelec and to Super-Besse. Realistically where the big difference is is psychological; Evans is a more savvy rider who will be in the right places and not get caught in splits in the péloton, and Evans is a better bike handler. Menchov could possibly have gained more time to Prato Nervoso had he not fallen off going uphill, after launching an attack that only Andy Schleck could go with, and much of the time he lost to Evans was in that descent to Jausiers.

Menchov should have won the 2011 Vuelta had he been a bit less lackadaisical in week 1. He's also a year younger than Evans; both riders should be seen as very important contenders for the 2012 Tour. But Menchov will need to be alert, like Evans is, as well as being in form, if he wants to stand a chance. If both enter in comparable form, Evans will likely finish ahead. But it likely won't be because he's stronger, it will be because he's smarter.

Menchov and Cadel Evans have done 29 time trials together. Evans was better than Menchov in 22 of those time trials.

 

[ferryman]

Menchov and Cadel Evans have done 29 time trials together. Evans was better than Menchov in 22 of those time trials.

You are either:

a) blessed with a cycling memory second to none; or

b) super fast at google; or have

c) quick access to cycling stats that you should share here

I'm impressed with any of the above by the way

 

[trevim]

Menchov and Cadel Evans have done 29 time trials together. Evans was better than Menchov in 22 of those time trials.

Well I believe that's true if you say so but I think that has more to do with the fact that Evans is on form all year. Menchov only peaks for a certain amount of races.

Bottom line: I think their TT's are quite equal.

 

[Dutchsmurf]

You are either:

a) blessed with a cycling memory second to none; or

b) super fast at google; or have

c) quick access to cycling stats that you should share here

I'm impressed with any of the above by the way

Try this link.

 

[El Pistolero]

Try this link.

Do remember to first put in the family name, then the family name of the mother and then the first name.

For example: Contador Velasco Alberto

 

[The Hitch]

Menchov and Cadel Evans have done 29 time trials together. Evans was better than Menchov in 22 of those time trials.

To be fair without ttts its 19 - 6, and Evans does own Menchov in prologues.

In previous arguments you talk about how prologues are less important and Evans does own Menchov in prologue, so in the approaching TDF, Evans will get an advantage in the prologue, but if Menchov can beat him in the 2 longer time trials, that can be overcome.

 

[El Pistolero]

To be fair without ttts its 19 - 6, and Evans does own Menchov in prologues.

In previous arguments you talk about how prologues are less important so in the approaching TDF, Evans will get an advantage in the prologue, but if Menchov can beat him in the 2 longer time trials, that can be overcome.

Less important in prestige if you manage to win one(though that's actually not true as you'll receive a leader jersey ergo it's more prestigious if you consider that) , but just as important as a normal time trial if you're going for the GC. Just ask Andy Schleck, he agrees

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Menchov and Cadel Evans have done 29 time trials together. Evans was better than Menchov in 22 of those time trials.

But for very few of those are both riders peaking; Menchov really just lets go if he isn't on song; Evans is much more willing to fight in any race he can.

For races that are representative, there's not much to go on.

2006 Tour:
Evans takes 13" in Prologue
Menchov takes 5" in Rennes (52km)
Evans takes 52" in Montceau (57km)

2007 Tour:
Evans takes 4" in Prologue
Evans takes 2'13" in Albi (54km) - Menchov has been playing domestique here though

2007 Vuelta:
Menchov takes 1'02" in Zaragoza (52km)
Menchov takes 7" in Collado Villalba (20km)
Evans is more tired from completing the Tour at this point however

2008 Tour:
Evans takes 7" in Cholet (29km)
Menchov takes 10" in Saint-Amand-Mortrond (53km)

There isn't really a fair comparison point since then as all races both have completed, either one or both riders have been off form, injured, or in Menchov's case not motivated to try. Evans certainly owns Menchov in prologues, but there's really not a lot between them in longer TTs, especially as the biggest gaps there (which are admittedly in Evans' favour) both have some partially mitigating circumstances.

However, Evans is in better form for longer, and tries hard in more races, which goes some way to explaining the discrepance in results in the head-to-head.

 

[The Hitch]

Less important in prestige if you manage to win one(though that's actually not true as you'll receive a leader jersey ergo it's more prestigious if you consider that) , but just as important as a normal time trial if you're going for the GC. Just ask Andy Schleck, he agrees

Wow, what a brilliant argument.

In 1 race 2 years ago Andy Schleck lost more time in the prologue to his main rival than he did in the tt.

Therefore we should expect the 8k prologue next year to play just as big a role in the GC as the 50k and 38k time trials.

 

[gustienordic]

I think that Cadel & Menchov are reasonably well balanced, especially in terms of TT. I think Cadel has the edge when it comes to short climbs, but they are similar on long climbs. Menchov will have a better team with him for the TDF however: There won't be as many good riders, but they will be focused on him, at BMC there will be too much infighting.

 

[orangerider]

Isn't Freire with Katusha for 2012? I'd imagine they'd want Freire on the team for stage win and publicity reasons. If so, Menchov as GC captain just makes this sort of an echo from his Rabobank days. Team will split to support the sprinter in addition to him. Don't really see much happening with Menchov.

 

[scullster46]

Isn't Freire with Katusha for 2012? I'd imagine they'd want Freire on the team for stage win and publicity reasons. If so, Menchov as GC captain just makes this sort of an echo from his Rabobank days. Team will split to support the sprinter in addition to him. Don't really see much happening with Menchov.

Freire isn't Cav, he doesn't need much team support, if any.

 

[greenedge]

Yeah Oscar has great positioning like Robbie McEwan unlike Cav/ Cipollini. Though i must say Cav did win the WC practically by his own positioning, on Goss' wheel.

 

[gustienordic]

Cav & Greipel need a strong leadout to win a sprint; Freire is a different kind of sprinter, more similar to McEwan or Rojas, who can win without a train.

 

[Ruudz0r]

Dont think they will be looking out for Freire much, Galimzyanov is going to do the flat sprints for which he needs Isaychev (at least this year) to bring him, maybe Freire can help him aswell but Im not so sure Freire will be selected for the tour.

 

[gustienordic]

Dont think they will be looking out for Freire much, Galimzyanov is going to do the flat sprints for which he needs Isaychev (at least this year) to bring him, maybe Freire can help him aswell but Im not so sure Freire will be selected for the tour.

+1 Freire doesn't really seem to have much of a sprint in him these days... maybe he should shift his focus.

 

[Ruudz0r]

Looking at the team roster of Katusha I guess Freire will be selected for the TDF, but still dont think he will be competing for a lot of stages.