Menchov vs. Sanchez...the battle for 3rd

[Connor Pass]

I'm quite excited about Menchov's chances - even possibly winning the whole thing!

He's looked much better in the last few days at reacting to the accelerations of Contador and Schleck than he did earlier in the Tour. In the stage to Morzine he sat at the back of the group for the whole climb and used no energy. When the attacks came in the last k I think he was happy enough to let Schleck/Samu gain a few seconds.
His ride in Mende was good on a climb that doesn't suit him.
I think that the climb of the Tourmalet quite suits him in that it's very long but not massively steep (very little over 9%) and he's obviously unquestionably got the best domestique in Robert Gesink.

I think Contador could also be a bit overrated in the TT - on a 52k dead flat stage possibly into a head-wind I think Menchov can gain at least a minute.

My guess would be

Menchov
Contador +1:15
Samu +1:45
Schleck +2:30

Maybe I'm being optimistic but the TT is totally in his favour. That said Schleck could be underrated - don't forget Frank Schleck did a really good TT in the Tour de Suisse.

The one thing I wonder is that if Schleck attacks and it's Menchov who reacts first would Schleck and Menchov possibly work together to distance Contador?

 

[hrotha]

I think people tend to think of Samu's descending abilities as if it was a superpower or something.

He's very good, yes. That doesn't mean he can power up whenever he wants and drop everyone in a descent, regardless of how technical the descent is, how tired he is, or any other factors involved.

 

[Bala Verde]

I.
I think that the climb of the Tourmalet quite suits him in that it's very long but not massively steep (very little over 9%) and he's obviously unquestionably got the best domestique in Robert Gesink.

Apparently Adri van Houwelingen (DS RAB) has already said that Gesink's GC will not be sacrificed for a Menchov podium spot.

"We gaan niet zomaar het klassement van Robert Gesink in de waagschaal leggen voor een mogelijke podiumplaats van Denis Menchov." source

Reasons he gave are that both have their own individual opponents as well as the perception that none of them could be of any help to the other, since it's very much mano a mano uphill.

Quite the public statement and a great way to put your strategic cards on the table... (Unless this is a case of trying to play mind games with the opposition

It could also be an indication that Menchov leaves the team at the end of his contract. With that option in the back of their mind, RAB feels compelled to favor Gesink and support the future over the past. Hence, the statement.

 

[jaylew]

The one thing I wonder is that if Schleck attacks and it's Menchov who reacts first would Schleck and Menchov possibly work together to distance Contador?

Sure...if and only if AC is on a bad day. No way Menchov drops Contador on a climb unless AC forgets to eat or has some serious allergy problems.

 

[SilentAssassin]

I'm quite excited about Menchov's chances - even possibly winning the whole thing!

He's looked much better in the last few days at reacting to the accelerations of Contador and Schleck than he did earlier in the Tour. In the stage to Morzine he sat at the back of the group for the whole climb and used no energy. When the attacks came in the last k I think he was happy enough to let Schleck/Samu gain a few seconds.
His ride in Mende was good on a climb that doesn't suit him.
I think that the climb of the Tourmalet quite suits him in that it's very long but not massively steep (very little over 9%) and he's obviously unquestionably got the best domestique in Robert Gesink.

I think Contador could also be a bit overrated in the TT - on a 52k dead flat stage possibly into a head-wind I think Menchov can gain at least a minute.

My guess would be

Menchov
Contador +1:15
Samu +1:45
Schleck +2:30

Maybe I'm being optimistic but the TT is totally in his favour. That said Schleck could be underrated - don't forget Frank Schleck did a really good TT in the Tour de Suisse.

The one thing I wonder is that if Schleck attacks and it's Menchov who reacts first would Schleck and Menchov possibly work together to distance Contador?

I agree with this, Menchov has good form this year - he has shown thus far that he can get on the wheel of the good climbers. The TT will only be an advantage for Menchov if he can hang with Contador and Schleck in the mountains.

 

[SilentAssassin]

Apparently Adri van Houwelingen (DS RAB) has already said that Gesink's GC will not be sacrificed for a Menchov podium spot.



Reasons he gave are that both have their own individual opponents as well as the perception that none of them could be of any help to the other, since it's very much mano a mano uphill.

Quite the public statement and a great way to put your strategic cards on the table... (Unless this is a case of trying to play mind games with the opposition

It could also be an indication that Menchov leaves the team at the end of his contract. With that option in the back of their mind, RAB feels compelled to favor Gesink and support the future over the past. Hence, the statement.

I doubt Rab drops Menchov if he gets a podium spot in the TDF. If so there will be a lot of teams after him I'm guessing. But Menchov not in a RAB jersey would be strange to see. Menchov is definitely one of the last remnants of the Lance Armstrong era that is still a contender.

 

[python]

Apparently Adri van Houwelingen (DS RAB) has already said that Gesink's GC will not be sacrificed for a Menchov podium spot.



Reasons he gave are that both have their own individual opponents as well as the perception that none of them could be of any help to the other, since it's very much mano a mano uphill.

Quite the public statement and a great way to put your strategic cards on the table... (Unless this is a case of trying to play mind games with the opposition

It could also be an indication that Menchov leaves the team at the end of his contract. With that option in the back of their mind, RAB feels compelled to favor Gesink and support the future over the past. Hence, the statement.

i did not read into van houwelingen's statement more than 'both are protected riders and designated leaders'.

it does not preclude rabo's tactics (based on their instant options) nor broadcasts any.

we already saw both working together when required.

 

[Moondance]

Well, so much for Menchov 'looking stronger'. Despite Gesink yanking him up the last 8k or so he still couldn't clamp onto Rodriguez, Sanchez or even Hesj when the late attacks came in.

Sanchez has a 21 second bumper for the TT... I hope he can hold it.

 

[theyoungest]

Well, so much for Menchov 'looking stronger'. Despite Gesink yanking him up the last 8k or so he still couldn't clamp onto Rodriguez, Sanchez or even Hesj when the late attacks came in.

Sanchez has a 21 second bumper for the TT... I hope he can hold it.

And he even served as a road block for Gesink when he wanted to follow Rodriguez

 

[luckyboy]

Hope Denis can take back the time tbh.

 

[Bernardus]

And he even served as a road block for Gesink when he wanted to follow Rodriguez

Well, the crowds did most of the blocking.

 

[sartoris]

I hope Samuel holds on to 3rd. In my view, he's fought harder for it, particularly after today's crash and his wonderful stage.

 

[The Hitch]

so samu has officialy been stronger in the mountains. So much for all those who told me i was wrong because Menchov kept up with Sanchez on one descent, and that therefore meant he was the much better climber in this tdf

But Menchov has been stronger on the flat. Samu took a minute from Menchov on the climbs but is only 21 seconds in front. I think Menchov will take it back. Sanchez has proven that there are the top 2, there are the rest, and in between these 2 groups, there is Sanchez so i think he deserves this.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Where's Thee_chisa? I want to laugh at them for saying - and standing by their statements after week 1 - that Menchov would struggle to top 10 and Sánchez would be good for 12th at best. And that Armstrong, Leipheimer, Basso, Vino and Evans would all place higher than both of them.

 

[SilentAssassin]

Sanchez had quite a heroic run after his crash. I wouldn't be disappointed if either Menchov or Sanchez got on the podium, but 3rd place is definitely the battle to watch in the Time Trial, especially since Schleck admitted himself that there is no way he could get yellow if he couldn't put time on Contador in today's stage.

 

[AtletiSK]

I was very impressed by Sánchez today after that fall... it´s going to be very close, they had the same time in the prologue, but of course Menchov has slightly more experience from GT deciding ITTs... I hope Samu can keep his podium place but Menchov has had very good TdF as well... in a way they would both deserve it so let´s see

 

[Nickbeam]

so samu has officialy been stronger in the mountains. So much for all those who told me i was wrong because Menchov kept up with Sanchez on one descent, and that therefore meant he was the much better climber in this tdf

But Menchov has been stronger on the flat. Samu took a minute from Menchov on the climbs but is only 21 seconds in front. I think Menchov will take it back. Sanchez has proven that there are the top 2, there are the rest, and in between these 2 groups, there is Sanchez so i think he deserves this.

ye, but still Denis looked promising in the pyrenees, i really thought Samu will lose somewhere. Menchov lost all the time after the rest days, he have to do something with it. but anyway, he had a great tour so far, he had Gesink's help in the mountains, he didn't lose anything on the flat, what is a rare thing for him, he was extremely good on the pave. To be on the podium with Andy and Bertie is honourable for him, so i think there is what to fight for in ITT. what a shame, we won't see both Samu and him on the podium, they've deserved it both.

 

[nesocip]

If Samu takes 3rd, ill post naked pictures of myself here in celebration.

On the more serious note, i doubt it, especially because elbow injury is going to hurt like hell in TT position. I said before in this thread that he needs around a minute healthy, now its probably 1:20 due to elbow issues.

At least today he proved to all the Cuddleses out there that you dont pedal with your arms, but with your legs.

 

[The Hitch]

Where's Thee_chisa? I want to laugh at them for saying - and standing by their statements after week 1 - that Menchov would struggle to top 10 and Sánchez would be good for 12th at best. And that Armstrong, Leipheimer, Basso, Vino and Evans would all place higher than both of them.

He thought Samu wouldnt make top 20
and dont forget his pick for 3rd.

wiggins.

lol

 

[SilentAssassin]

Menchov will at least get 3rd. I'm sure of it.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Well, so much for Menchov 'looking stronger'. Despite Gesink yanking him up the last 8k or so he still couldn't clamp onto Rodriguez, Sanchez or even Hesj when the late attacks came in.

Sanchez has a 21 second bumper for the TT... I hope he can hold it.

Menchov after rest days....
that's a known weakness. (noticed VDB2 seems to suffer from the same weakness after a rest day)

 

[SilentAssassin]

Menchov after rest days....
that's a known weakness. (noticed VDB2 seems to suffer from the same weakness after a rest day)

I hope your wrong.

 

[SilentAssassin]

Sanchez was assassinated