Menchov vs. Sanchez...the battle for 3rd

[SilentAssassin]

This tour is exciting with the additional battle for 3rd place going on.

I would like to see Menchov win the whole thing, but I'm a realist and think 3rd is a lot more reasonable. Any body know how good Sanchez is in the ITT? Also any chance Menchov could pull minutes on Andy or Contador in the final ITT?

 

[scribe]

Menchov can get some time on Contador and will possibly overtake Shrek for 2nd place. Sanchez is also a very good TT, and could actually grab 3rd from Shrek.

 

[Scirea]

This tour is exciting with the additional battle for 3rd place going on.

I would like to see Menchov win the whole thing, but I'm a realist and think 3rd is a lot more reasonable. Any body know how good Sanchez is in the ITT? Also any chance Menchov could pull minutes on Andy or Contador in the final ITT?

Sanchez is good in ITT but not as good as Menchov. If the gap between them stays where it is, itpodium is Menchov's to lose. Denis will beat Andy by minutes but he can't do that against Contador. On a really good day + bad day for Contador, maybe he can get something close to a minute.

 

[Night Rider]

In the TT Menchov will put two minutes or more into Schleck.

He should beat Sanchez in the TT but could be close, won't beat Contador.

 

[hrotha]

Samu is good in short and medium-distance TTs. The only long TT that counts was the 20th stage of the 2008 TdF, where he was 20th. Honestly I have no idea how he'll do. He's improved even in short TTs, so I reckon he should be rather good at the long TT of the TdF.

 

[La Vie Claire]

Andy's going to attack big time. All Menchov has to do is follow. Menchov always has a bad day in the mountains but not this year since he's still in the picture. He's also well rested from a light program this year. Menchov for 2nd. I don't think the 40 secs AS lost today will matter.

 

[M Sport]

Menchov has a massive incentive to follow Andys wheel wherever possible in these next two mountain stages, this is the best position he's ever been in five stages out from the finish of a TdF.

He will put more than two minutes into Schleck in the TT so its all on now.

 

[Ripper]

Hmmmm

Does anyone else think Menchov could pull out a huge TT?

He positively smoked the TT in the Giro last year, and being a bit heavier of a guy compared to come, I think the flat TT will suit him very well if he is recovered. Keep in mind he was somethng like 40-50 seconds ahead of ACD in DL, and while ACD claims to have had a "bad day", there is no way Menchov was in the form then that he is now.

I'm not saying it's likely. Just that I doubt ACD and Andy Mantis are not having Russian nightmares if they don't drop his ass up the Tourmelet.

 

[luckyboy]

Menchov has a massive incentive to follow Andys wheel wherever possible in these next two mountain stages, this is the best position he's ever been in five stages out from the finish of a TdF.

Yeah, I really hope he can hold on.

It'd be awesome if Contador totally capitulated in the TT and Menchov scraped it, but that's not happening.

 

[abbaskip]

I think if Menchov loses no further time on Schleck, he is now favourite for second...Really, it is now a three way battle for second, not a two way battle for first. Atleast until Schleck can show that he can take a decent chunk of time out of Menchov and Sanchez...

 

[PCutter]

On current splits Menchov would be second, and possibly Sammy climbing to 3rd. But Andy has shown he's much faster in the mountains than either of these two and possibly today, or more likely Tourmalet, he will just pin the ears back and turn on the after burners and hope Conti can't go with him as he needs to gap AC and can't spend the whole tour playing with each other. AC may be able to hold his wheel, but DM and SS have always only made it back once AC and AS start track standing with each other.

 

[Publicus]

Unlike Andy, AC isn't going to sit on his lead if he can gain more time on the other rivals. That being said, I think Andy is going to attack with his heart/pride and not his head over the next couple of days. So we will see Sanchez, Menchov and AC sitting on Andy. This will be an interesting next couple of stages.

 

[pedaling squares]

On current splits Menchov would be second, and possibly Sammy climbing to 3rd. But Andy has shown he's much faster in the mountains than either of these two and possibly today, or more likely Tourmalet, he will just pin the ears back and turn on the after burners and hope Conti can't go with him as he needs to gap AC and can't spend the whole tour playing with each other. AC may be able to hold his wheel, but DM and SS have always only made it back once AC and AS start track standing with each other.

Agreed. Menchov has been fantastic but as you said has profited from some gamesmanship between Contador and Schleck, then from Schleck's mechanical. Schleck has to fear him in the ITT and should put some serious pressure on him starting tomorrow if he wants a comfortable cushion.

 

[python]

On current splits Menchov would be second, and possibly Sammy climbing to 3rd. But Andy has shown he's much faster in the mountains than either of these two and possibly today, or more likely Tourmalet, he will just pin the ears back and turn on the after burners and hope Conti can't go with him as he needs to gap AC and can't spend the whole tour playing with each other. AC may be able to hold his wheel, but DM and SS have always only made it back once AC and AS start track standing with each other.

b-i-n-g-o ! particularly the last fattened sentence.

i replayed that stage several times, the gap between 'dancing' andy and berto otoh and menchov/samu on the other reached 40 seconds at one point. once andy and berto stopped dancing they closed on menchov/samu at the rate of around 8-10 seconds per km.

all 4 know who's who on the steep inclines.

the itt battle will come to who's nurtured his reserves the best and the russian is known for not making his legs to deliver a pedal stroke too many.

in the rested state, given their record in long itts it would be reasonable to expect the following sequence:

menchov/berto about even or denis slightly faster
samu up to a minute back
andy 2-3 minutes back.

now, looking for clues who's fresher is helpfull too. so far, menchov was the first to react to several accelerations by either andy or contador, he was also the protagonist during their dance. otoh, dinis has shown some weakness when he could not stick it samu on the flat final part in the stage he was 2nd.

could be because he's too thin atm and THAT is not a good sign for a flat itt but a gift for the remaining mountain stages.

 

[theyoungest]

On current splits Menchov would be second, and possibly Sammy climbing to 3rd. But Andy has shown he's much faster in the mountains than either of these two and possibly today, or more likely Tourmalet, he will just pin the ears back and turn on the after burners and hope Conti can't go with him as he needs to gap AC and can't spend the whole tour playing with each other. AC may be able to hold his wheel, but DM and SS have always only made it back once AC and AS start track standing with each other.

No. Yesterday and the day before Menchov had already caught the wheel of Conta and Schleck before they started fooling around or having mechanicals or whatever. Menchov is only just hitting top form, although he had a bad day after the rest day, and the Tourmalet comes after the next rest day, which isn't good news for him.

 

[SilentAssassin]

I thought Andy improved his time trial ability, demonstrating this in the last tour. And I'm guessing he'll drop the hammer and leave Menchov and Sanchez on the next mountain stages. As to whether he can drop Contador, that remains to be seen

 

[Von Mises]

Samu is good in short and medium-distance TTs. The only long TT that counts was the 20th stage of the 2008 TdF, where he was 20th. Honestly I have no idea how he'll do. He's improved even in short TTs, so I reckon he should be rather good at the long TT of the TdF.

In 2008 long TT Menchov took about 1.20 from Sanchez and about 2 minutes from Schleck.

 

[movingtarget]

Don't you mean, battle for second. Unless Schleck puts time into the other three on the Tourmalet, I think he is in trouble. Sanchez and Menchov will smell blood if the time gaps stay the same. Schleck has been naive in trying to turn each mountain stage into a match race with Contador instead of riding for time. Fooling around instead of attacking further from the finish. Menchov has the edge over Sanchez I think. I am not convinced that Schleck has improved that much in the time trial, especially a flat one. A hilly one would be a different story entirely as his climbing has been second to none. Schleck may have cost himself second place by worrying too much about Contador and if he buries himself on the Tourmalet he could ride an ordinary time trial anyway. Interesting days to come.

 

[scribe]

Don't you mean, battle for second. Unless Schleck puts time into the other three on the Tourmalet, I think he is in trouble. Sanchez and Menchov will smell blood if the time gaps stay the same. Schleck has been naive in trying to turn each mountain stage into a match race with Contador instead of riding for time. Fooling around instead of attacking further from the finish. Menchov has the edge over Sanchez I think. I am not convinced that Schleck has improved that much in the time trial, especially a flat one. A hilly one would be a different story entirely as his climbing has been second to none. Schleck may have cost himself second place by worrying too much about Contador and if he buries himself on the Tourmalet he could ride an ordinary time trial anyway. Interesting days to come.

Uh. Why do you think they drilled the crap out of his mechanical yesterday? If you think they are just now beginning to smell blood, you probably are in for some big 'surprises' over the next few days.

 

[Bala Verde]

Didn't Sanchez show some cracks today?

 

[nvpacchi]

Didn't Sanchez show some cracks today?

He was dropped early (don't know which climb), however he seems to be the kind of rider, similar to Sastre, who improves as the race progresses and might struggle early on if the pace high and the terrain is difficult.

 

[Moondance]

Menchov looked strong and alert today in the early going of todays stage while Sanchez was hurting badly.

I would say Menchov will take this quite handily. He'll get some time up the Tourmalet on Thursday (between 30s and a minute I warrant) and will club Samu like a baby seal in the TT.

 

[Nickbeam]

ye, it was a crack actually. a bad sign for Samu. rest day tomorrow, what is a really good thing for him. Denis often has problems after the rest days, he usually loses time to his main rivals. but if he manages to survive on tourmalet and stay with the fav's, he's gonna be dangerous in the ITT. even for Conta.

 

[Moondance]

ye, it was a crack actually. a bad sign for Samu. rest day tomorrow, what is a really good thing for him. Denis often has problems after the rest days, he usually loses time to his main rivals. but if he manages to survive on tourmalet and stay with the fav's, he's gonna be dangerous in the ITT. even for Conta.

Not that bad really. In last year's Giro he held firm in the face of Di Luca's toughest attacks on the Blockhaus. And he time loss in the post-rest day stage in 2008 to Jausiers was because he's a poor descender. Menchov has on occasion faded somewhat in the last week in GTs past (2005, Vuelta, 2006 Tour, to a lesser extent the 2009 Giro), but since he's only getting stronger throughout this Tour I think he's just finally got his prep just right.

I think its more worrying that Menchov has been able to stay on his bike all this time. He's contractually obligated to have at least one major fuck-up per GT, and he's clean so far.

 

[The Hitch]

Samu has been better than Menchov in the mountains, but can he hold that on the tourmalet. Doubt it.

Looks like Menchov is favourite for this though i really really want Samu.