Milan - San Remo 2018

[Gigs_98]

Sagan needs to win this. He finally has to start winning big races outside the WCRR and the competition this year is weaker than usually. I think this is the year where he has to ride conservatively and profit from the fact that guys like Gaviria are injured.
The most interesting story about this race is imo what quickstep will do. If they want that the race doesn't end in a buch sprint, the race won't end in a bunch sprint. They have more than enough weapons to let the race explode but they also have a fast sprinter. With gaviria I would have said they should simply attack on the poggio with alaphilippe and Gilbert. Then play the 1-2 game let gilbert attack while alaphilippe sucks wheels so you have three scenarios. 1. Gilbert can stay away 2. gilbert gets caught by alaphilippe group --> rested alaphilippe can win in the sprint 3. everyone gets caught so gav goes for it in the sprint. Ofc easier said than done but I think this would be a good plan.
Now that viviani is the teams best sprinting option things change cause I'm not as convinced that viviani can even contend in a sprint since he isn't a good climber and a big alaphilippe attack might blow him up. So will quickstep now go for the sprint or the attack. That might be the crucial question of the race

 

[GenericBoonenFan]

Pasqualon to make Wanty's year!

 

[TourOfSardinia]

VAR at M-S

The Gazzetta had a short article this morning that for M-S there will be a real-time
video assistant referee (VAR) housed in the back of a lorry checking a large array
of TV monitors as the race develops.
Thus if Demare (to take an idle example) does actually hang on to the team car up a Cap/Col/Poggio
and the camera shows it - the UCI's VAR judge may eliminate him before he interferes with outcome.

I guess this may act as a general deterrent
- somewhat like the BBC TV detector vans do.

I predict privacy concerns at natural breaks!

Paywalled at https://www.pressreader.com/italy/la-gazzetta-dello-sport/20180314/282540133858116
Nel ciclismo ades­so scat­ta l’era del­la Var● (l.gial.) Nel ciclismo si apre l’era del­la Var. La San­re­mo ac­co­glie­rà sa­ba­to il de­but­to del pri­mo giu­di­ce Uci de­sti­na­to a se­gui­re la cor­sa in te­le­vi...­

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: Re:

Because he was beaten by the two guys that will forever be closer than Alaphilippe. Kwiatkowskis skill set is a true superset of the french pretender.

Alaphilippe is a better puncheur and a better descender than Kwiatkowski. Look at Bergen championships. Ala has the ability to attack on poggio and win alone, Kwia can only do that on the wheel of others.

is he? how's do you come to that conclusion

I can't really remember any superb descent by kwiat so I wouldn't have called him a great descender. From alaphilippe I can at least remember a few very impressive descents. But anyway I don't think either of them is such a particularly incredible or bad descender that it would make a big difference. Alaphilippe clearly has a better uphill acceleration though. We shouldn't forget that kwiat could only close the gap to sagan last year because alaphilippe bridged the gap with kwiat on his wheel

 

[SafeBet]

Sagan is the big favorite for me, with Demare and Kwiatkowski being the biggest challenge.
Cort a nice outsider.
Watch out for Colbrelli in case it rains (as expected atm).

 

[sucotash]

Re: Re:

Because he was beaten by the two guys that will forever be closer than Alaphilippe. Kwiatkowskis skill set is a true superset of the french pretender.

Alaphilippe is a better puncheur and a better descender than Kwiatkowski. Look at Bergen championships. Ala has the ability to attack on poggio and win alone, Kwia can only do that on the wheel of others.

is he? how's do you come to that conclusion

I can't really remember any superb descent by kwiat so I wouldn't have called him a great descender. From alaphilippe I can at least remember a few very impressive descents. But anyway I don't think either of them is such a particularly incredible or bad descender that it would make a big difference. Alaphilippe clearly has a better uphill acceleration though. We shouldn't forget that kwiat could only close the gap to sagan last year because alaphilippe bridged the gap with kwiat on his wheel

Ponferrada, Dauphine last year when he destroyed Porte on the descent, and much much more. Kwiato is a top class bike handler and one othe very best descenders

 

[wirral]

Re: VAR at M-S

The Gazzetta had a short article this morning that for M-S there will be a real-time
video assistant referee (VAR) housed in the back of a lorry checking a large array
of TV monitors as the race develops.
Thus if Demare (to take an idle example) does actually hang on to the team car up a Cap/Col/Poggio
and the camera shows it - the UCI's VAR judge may eliminate him before he interferes with outcome.

I guess this may act as a general deterrent
- somewhat like the BBC TV detector vans do.

I predict privacy concerns at natural breaks!

Paywalled at https://www.pressreader.com/italy/la-gazzetta-dello-sport/20180314/282540133858116
Nel ciclismo ades­so scat­ta l’era del­la Var● (l.gial.) Nel ciclismo si apre l’era del­la Var. La San­re­mo ac­co­glie­rà sa­ba­to il de­but­to del pri­mo giu­di­ce Uci de­sti­na­to a se­gui­re la cor­sa in te­le­vi...­

Ha! Brilliant. Wait till they get drone-assisted referees.

 

[King Boonen]

A.B.S.

Rick James will recognise that acronym, the last letter isn't E this time

 

[The Hegelian]

Re: Re:

Because he was beaten by the two guys that will forever be closer than Alaphilippe. Kwiatkowskis skill set is a true superset of the french pretender.

Alaphilippe is a better puncheur and a better descender than Kwiatkowski. Look at Bergen championships. Ala has the ability to attack on poggio and win alone, Kwia can only do that on the wheel of others.

is he? how's do you come to that conclusion

I can't really remember any superb descent by kwiat so I wouldn't have called him a great descender. From alaphilippe I can at least remember a few very impressive descents. But anyway I don't think either of them is such a particularly incredible or bad descender that it would make a big difference. Alaphilippe clearly has a better uphill acceleration though. We shouldn't forget that kwiat could only close the gap to sagan last year because alaphilippe bridged the gap with kwiat on his wheel

What about his WC win?

 

[DFA123]

Re:

A.B.S.

Sagan or Sky?

Or can we change the last letter to SAS?

 

[Blanco]

Sagan will win this bike race in any scenario, but he must not attack, he needs to be patient, very patient. He needs to follow moves and save his strength for the final strike, which will probably be a sprint from 2-30 riders, but I'm confident he can win any of them.
QS has 3 cards and they will try to use all of them, Ala on the Poggio, Gilbert in last 2km and Viviani in the sprint.
Sky will try with Kwiat on the Poggio, but I doubt he can escape without Sagan, and this year he won't help him.
Demare, Kristoff, Degenkolb are all good bets, but I think fairly fresh Sagan will out sprint them.
Groenewegen and Viviani are probably the only ones who could out sprint Sagan, but it's a big question if they will be there at the end, and how Cipressa and Poggio would affect them. I'm backing Sagan against them.
Greg Van Avermaet can't win this bike race.

 

[Jagartrott]

Re: Re:

Ponferrada, Dauphine last year when he destroyed Porte on the descent, and much much more. Kwiato is a top class bike handler and one othe very best descenders

My 95-year-old grandmother may beat Porte in a descent. Porte is not much of a reference.

 

[trucido]

Re: VAR at M-S

The Gazzetta had a short article this morning that for M-S there will be a real-time
video assistant referee (VAR) housed in the back of a lorry checking a large array
of TV monitors as the race develops.
Thus if Demare (to take an idle example) does actually hang on to the team car up a Cap/Col/Poggio
and the camera shows it - the UCI's VAR judge may eliminate him before he interferes with outcome.

I guess this may act as a general deterrent
- somewhat like the BBC TV detector vans do.

I predict privacy concerns at natural breaks!

Paywalled at https://www.pressreader.com/italy/la-gazzetta-dello-sport/20180314/282540133858116
Nel ciclismo ades­so scat­ta l’era del­la Var● (l.gial.) Nel ciclismo si apre l’era del­la Var. La San­re­mo ac­co­glie­rà sa­ba­to il de­but­to del pri­mo giu­di­ce Uci de­sti­na­to a se­gui­re la cor­sa in te­le­vi...­

Demare must be crying.

 

[King Boonen]

Re: Re:

A.B.S.

Sagan or Sky?

Or can we change the last letter to SAS?

Originally Sagan, but I like yours too. ABSAS.

 

[fauniera]

Please copy this in the OP:

 

[THEORYY]

IMHO too much hype around Kwiato, he is not favorite for me...this year Sagan or Viviani

 

[DNP-Old]

All in on Laporte.

 

[Red Rick]

This is Milan Sanremo. That means one thing

I have no clue

 

[Laporte17]

I think we all know who is going to win this one. Looking forward to seeing if he gives the competition a chance by only winning by only a few millimetres or goes for a proper few lengths or an awesome solo attack, however he does it, looking forward to seeing it!

Watch out for Ganna as well, maybe 2nd place for him.

 

[LiquidCrystalDynamic]

Re: Re:

Alaphilippe clearly has a better uphill acceleration though. We shouldn't forget that kwiat could only close the gap to sagan last year because alaphilippe bridged the gap with kwiat on his wheel

Kwiat let Alaphilippe do the work because he was thinking of the win and had a sprinter in the bunch, he was being tactically smart and it worked out well for him.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: Re:

Alaphilippe clearly has a better uphill acceleration though. We shouldn't forget that kwiat could only close the gap to sagan last year because alaphilippe bridged the gap with kwiat on his wheel

Kwiat let Alaphilippe do the work because he was thinking of the win and had a sprinter in the bunch, he was being tactically smart and it worked out well for him.

Kwiat was the first to chase sagan but couldn't close the gap. So alaphilippe came around him and closed the gap with kwiat on his wheel. That had nothing to do with tactics

 

[tobydawq]

Re:

I think we all know who is going to win this one. Looking forward to seeing if he gives the competition a chance by only winning by only a few millimetres or goes for a proper few lengths or an awesome solo attack, however he does it, looking forward to seeing it!

Watch out for Ganna as well, maybe 2nd place for him.

I was going to ask whether it was Laporte you meant, until I saw who wrote this

 

[Blanco]

Re: Re:

Alaphilippe clearly has a better uphill acceleration though. We shouldn't forget that kwiat could only close the gap to sagan last year because alaphilippe bridged the gap with kwiat on his wheel

Kwiat let Alaphilippe do the work because he was thinking of the win and had a sprinter in the bunch, he was being tactically smart and it worked out well for him.

You don't think in that moments, you react. You're closing Sagan, or the race is over. Kwiatkowski reacted but didn't have enough strength, but he was lucky to have Alaphilippe with him. No tactics there. Later he was tactically smart and everything fall into place for him so he won.

 

[jaylew]

Re:

A.B.S.

Rick James will recognise that acronym, the last letter isn't E this time

ABD for me.

Looks like Matthews is racing after all. I'd normally say he'd have a decent shot but coming back from injury makes it less likely.

 

[May0maniac]

Re:

I think we all know who is going to win this one. Looking forward to seeing if he gives the competition a chance by only winning by only a few millimetres or goes for a proper few lengths or an awesome solo attack, however he does it, looking forward to seeing it!

Watch out for Ganna as well, maybe 2nd place for him.

I don't think that Ganna will race MSR, he hurt one of his wrists in the crash on stage 2 of Tirreno-Adriatico and just came back from the Track cycling WC, for him it will mostly be about getting into shape for the smaller cobbled one day races.