Milan - San Remo 2018

[Anderis]

Re:

I think we all know who is going to win this one. Looking forward to seeing if he gives the competition a chance by only winning by only a few millimetres or goes for a proper few lengths or an awesome solo attack, however he does it, looking forward to seeing it!

This.

Now you can close the thread.

 

[Netserk]

Re: Re:

Alaphilippe clearly has a better uphill acceleration though. We shouldn't forget that kwiat could only close the gap to sagan last year because alaphilippe bridged the gap with kwiat on his wheel

Kwiat let Alaphilippe do the work because he was thinking of the win and had a sprinter in the bunch, he was being tactically smart and it worked out well for him.

Kwiat was the first to chase sagan but couldn't close the gap. So alaphilippe came around him and closed the gap with kwiat on his wheel. That had nothing to do with tactics

And if Ala had been the first of the two to chase, Kwiatkowski would have closed the gap. Only together could they reach Sagan.

 

[Red Rick]

I wish they'd mix it up with the course a little bit. Everyone knows how to ride San Remo now. Attacks on the Poggio always happen on the same spot, etc.

 

[Netserk]

Re:

I wish they'd mix it up with the course a little bit. Everyone knows how to ride San Remo now. Attacks on the Poggio always happen on the same spot, etc.

How radical a change do you need?

I am yearning for Le Manie. There's plenty of alternative improvements, but Le Manie will do just fine.

 

[May0maniac]

Re: Re:

I wish they'd mix it up with the course a little bit. Everyone knows how to ride San Remo now. Attacks on the Poggio always happen on the same spot, etc.

How radical a change do you need?

I am yearning for Le Manie. There's plenty of alternative improvements, but Le Manie will do just fine.

Yes, the race just needs Le Manie or a similar climb before the classic final, that's really all you need to fix it.

 

[Red Rick]

Le Manie is a start. Can also swap around with Cipressa/Poggio and the Pompeiana.

The latter I just want to see in a Giro stage or even a PN stage first, if that race ever crosses into Italy.

 

[Max Rockatansky]

Degenkolb out, Nizzolo out. Trek still has Felline and Stuyven.

 

[masking_agent]

in this day and age of our sport, the Poggio is no longer a defining turning point in the race. The heaviest of sprinters can still hold on. I think it will be a sprinter in a bunch sprint.

 

[krakenKE]

Re:

Sagan will win this bike race in any scenario, but he must not attack, he needs to be patient, very patient. He needs to follow moves and save his strength for the final strike, which will probably be a sprint from 2-30 riders, but I'm confident he can win any of them.
QS has 3 cards and they will try to use all of them, Ala on the Poggio, Gilbert in last 2km and Viviani in the sprint.
Sky will try with Kwiat on the Poggio, but I doubt he can escape without Sagan, and this year he won't help him.
Demare, Kristoff, Degenkolb are all good bets, but I think fairly fresh Sagan will out sprint them.
Groenewegen and Viviani are probably the only ones who could out sprint Sagan, but it's a big question if they will be there at the end, and how Cipressa and Poggio would affect them. I'm backing Sagan against them.
Greg Van Avermaet can't win this bike race.

I totally agree that Sagan will win if he stays patient. There is one huge boost to his chances that he can count on and that would be Daniel Oss. I am pretty sure Oss in current shape can survive the Poggio and stay upfront and drag Sagan to the finish line. Fresh Sagan in sprint equals almost sure win. But you never know what will Sagan do, he might again try to win in style and loose it all.

 

[The Barb]

Re: Re:

Ponferrada, Dauphine last year when he destroyed Porte on the descent, and much much more. Kwiato is a top class bike handler and one othe very best descenders

My 95-year-old grandmother may beat Porte in a descent. Porte is not much of a reference.

Stage 8 of 2017 Dauphine:

Irrespective of Porte, whom he rode away from on the descent, he also closed a gap of about 45 seconds to the group in front of him, which contained Contador, Froome and Fuglsang. Then we he got there he smashed out tempo for Froome in the valley. It was one of the great "unnoticed" rides.

Kwiatkowski is an elite descender when he needs to be. Maybe not Sagan, but as good as anyone else.

 

[EroicaStradeBianche]

Sagan is the absolute favorite but this race has practically became a russian roulette, there a a lot of outsiders who could win in a sprint (Viviani, Kristoff, Demare, Greg,...). I think it will be very difficult for kwiato to repeat himself because he will be guarded by everyone, he won't be dragged to finish line like last year... I noticed that Gilbert has tried to fly under the radar, he'll try something....
It's a race in need of a restyling since years, it will be absolute borefest till the last 10km and then it will come to a sprint, in the last 25 or so years the race was never decided before the poggio, the real monument was in Siena. Sanremo has keep only really distance, history and the settings. The Cipressa and the poggio are ridiculous climbs in modern cycling even with an e-bike would be difficult to make selections here.
Coppi used to win that race with 15 minutes on the second attacking on the Turchino, but that was with the technologies of 60 years ago plus non-asphalted roads. The Poggio was introduced in the 60ies because the race was becoming too easy. Cipressa added in the 80ies for the same reason.
I don't understand why the have kept this surpassed route with all the possibilities offered by the ligurian coast. It may have a prestigious history but in comparison to races like Flanders, Roubaix, Tour of Lombardy, etc is a sprinters oriented semi-classic.

 

[jaylew]

Here's the startlist

Maybe add to opening post?

 

[Netserk]

Re:

Le Manie is a start. Can also swap around with Cipressa/Poggio and the Pompeiana.

The latter I just want to see in a Giro stage or even a PN stage first, if that race ever crosses into Italy.

WHAT?!

Heresy, burn the witch!!!

Before Cipressa, including the capi, can see changes, but no further than that.

 

[Dr. Watson]

Sagan is the absolute favourite but I have a feeling he is still gonna find a way to somehow screw it up

 

[EroicaStradeBianche]

Re: Re:

Le Manie is a start. Can also swap around with Cipressa/Poggio and the Pompeiana.

The latter I just want to see in a Giro stage or even a PN stage first, if that race ever crosses into Italy.

WHAT?!

Heresy, burn the witch!!!

Before Cipressa, including the capi, can see changes, but no further than that.

Poggio and Cipressa are easy non-historical hills , simple deviations of the main road which follows the coastline until Sanremo which have been introduced between the 60s and 80s because the race was becoming a sprinters criterium and the organizers wanted the keep the prestige of this great old race which in heroic times was won by coppi binda girardengo, attacking on the Turchino and battling for 100km. Now they waited too much before reinventing the route and we are stuck with a race of the level of the coppa Bernocchi. Throw away Poggio and even Cipressa, change the last 50-60kms and bring back the long arrive in Sanremo along the sea, just a thought.

 

[can3478]

From inCycle - Michal Kwiatkowski talks us through his memorable 2017 win.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S4Se5JgvuuM

 

[Netserk]

I know its history just fine. Le Manie should probably have been added a few years earlier, but the tragedy was its removal (which I doubt would have happened if it wasn't for the failed attempt to include Pompeiana.)

If for some reason it would eventually be mass sprints most of the times with Le Manie, then you could either switch Le Manie with a climb closer to Cipressa, or just add an additional one. Too radical a change would devaluate the race.

 

[toolittle]

Re:

Quick step is crazy team. Super strong.

Gaviria out.. Viviani Up.. Less speed but more experiences.. Less depend on leadout.
Alaphilippe could response to any attack.
Gilbert could start magic attack.

 

[Netserk]

I don't think QS is too impressive. I don't get why Stybar isn't there, he could be useful after Poggio. Viviani needs one of Sabatini or Richeze to have a superb day and survive the Poggio. Only really Gilbert as a certain, strong helper for Viviani in the end.

 

[rick james]

Moscon to leave them for dust on the Poggio

 

[Salvarani]

Re:

I don't think QS is too impressive. I don't get why Stybar isn't there, he could be useful after Poggio. Viviani needs one of Sabatini or Richeze to have a superb day and survive the Poggio. Only really Gilbert as a certain, strong helper for Viviani in the end.

Gilbert wants to win.

 

[Netserk]

And I want to win a million.

 

[Salvarani]

Do you buddy

 

[Laplaz]

***** Sagan
**** Kwiatkowski
*** Demare, Viviani, Kristoff
** GVA, Gilbert, Matthews, Moscon, Cort Nielsen
* Greipel, Modolo, Laporte, Lutsenko, Colbrelli, Drucker, Trentin, Ewan, Cavendish, Kittel, Stuyven

 

[Gigs_98]

Re:

And I want to win a million.

Well, Gilbert wants to win his penultimate monument so I wouldn't be surprised if he has a free role. I don't know though if his shape is good enough to even attack in the finale. However if it isn't it's also questionable how helpful he'll be for viviani