Milan San Remo, March 21, 2026, 298 km monument

[Berniece]

Not strong, 10 kph. Still, it's complicating things regarding Cipressa attack. Maybe they'll have to count on tailwind sections of Poggio (with double UAE attack) or ...on the last 2 km.

Likely Teddy hitting against the wall , volume 5

That’s too late and too short. The only way he can drop MVDP is if it’s multiple long attacks so it’s hard enough. Only attacking in the last 2 kilometres and MVDP will just sit in your wheel

 

[Krzysztof_O]

That’s too late and too short. The only way he can drop MVDP is if it’s multiple long attacks so it’s hard enough. Only attacking in the last 2 kilometres and MVDP will just sit in your wheel

Depending who'd MVP competition. He won't just deliver other fast guys to the finish (so there could be a moment of hesitation). Attack in the very finale can work if Pogacar still has some power left (no furious attacks before) but obviously it's hard as he's watched by everybody.

 

[Mayomaniac]

People should just use terror tactics vs Uae. Use you big rouleurs to manhandle them in the positional fight beflre the Cipressa, then go full roadblock.

 

[Berniece]

Depending who'd MVP competition. He won't just deliver other fast guys to the finish (so there could be a moment of hesitation). Attack in the very finale can work if Pogacar still has some power left (no furious attacks before) but obviously it's hard as he's watched by everybody.

I think he only has one option, that's Cipressa. With a proper leadout, not like last year, it might work. Or duo attack of course, but he doesn't want that.

 

[Red Rick]

That’s too late and too short. The only way he can drop MVDP is if it’s multiple long attacks so it’s hard enough. Only attacking in the last 2 kilometres and MVDP will just sit in your wheel

It's actually perfect. All you do is clog up the entrance, and if VdP is out of position, you blast off from the bottom

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Likely Teddy hitting against the wall , volume 5

As long as he doesn't hit the wall himself. That's what ruined Froome's career (allegedly).

 

[Krzysztof_O]

I think he only has one option, that's Cipressa. With a proper leadout, not like last year, it might work. Or duo attack of course, but he doesn't want that.

Last year conditions on Cipressa were exceptionally good for attacking: 20-25 kph E or NE wind. It's not the case this year. Plus there won't be a better leadout than last year (it could if Narvaez and Wellens were present). To sum up, Cipressa chances look very small this year. I would think double attack on Cipressa (both Pogi and Del Toro) would indeed be the best option after a very strong leadout before but some guys are missing (and wind conditions are much worse).

 

[Berniece]

and if VdP is out of position

Good luck with that strategy

Last year conditions on Cipressa were exceptionally good for attacking: 20-25 kph E or NE wind. It's not the case this year. Plus there won't be a better leadout than last year (it could if Narvaez and Wellens were present). To sum up, Cipressa chances look very small this year. I would think double attack on Cipressa (both Pogi and Del Toro) would indeed be the best option after a very strong leadout before but some guys are missing (and wind conditions are much worse).

There was a whole article on Sporza about the wind. Tom Steels now uses Nordic weather app since they were spot on lately. That app says wind from the side, but very weak, only 10km/h.

Værvarsel time for time for Cipressa

Dagens værvarsel for Cipressa time for time.

www.yr.no

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Good luck with that strategy


There was a whole article on Sporza about the wind. Tom Steels now uses Nordic weather app since they were spot on lately. That app says wind from the side, but very weak, only 10km/h.

Værvarsel time for time for Cipressa

Dagens værvarsel for Cipressa time for time.

www.yr.no

It's very hard to predict exact wind in coastal areas where there are cliffs etc (so sea influence can fade quickly). My point is that last year there was a strong, favourable wind field in the whole area from Genoa to Nice. While this year the wind will be much weaker (and non-favourable or neutral). This, coupled with weakened team, makes successful Cipressa attack almost impossible this year. That's why I think Poggio and last 2 km are more feasible options tomorrow.

 

[tobydawq]

People should just use terror tactics vs Uae. Use you big rouleurs to manhandle them in the positional fight beflre the Cipressa, then go full roadblock.

I hope Picnic do that like they did somewhere (early) in De Ronde a couple of years ago. At least that would be one memorable thing to happen from them this year.

 

[canina82]

Not strong, 10 kph. Still, it's complicating things regarding Cipressa attack. Maybe they'll have to count on tailwind sections of Poggio (with double UAE attack) or ...on the last 2 km.

Likely Teddy hitting against the wall , volume 5

It's still a headwind. A major blow to the race however this increases the chance for a wildcard win.

 

[Berniece]

It's still a headwind. A major blow to the race however this increases the chance for a wildcard win.

Wildcard win is a major win for MSR

 

[canina82]

No wind or a tailwind is the same thing for an attacker. Those who are following his wheel are also riding with a tailwind. The only advantage is when you are alone. You can go faster (the chasing group can go faster too) and the difference is smaller.

Difference between 53 and 54 kph during 13 kms = 16"

Difference between 50 and 51 kph during 13 kms = 19"

 

[QueenStagiaire]

I hope Picnic do that like they did somewhere (early) in De Ronde a couple of years ago. At least that would be one memorable thing to happen from them this year.

It‘s a bit harder in Sanremo where they don‘t have to climb Kortekeer though and only climb on large two-lane roads. And Picnic don‘t have anyone to position them well enough because the majority of their riders suck.

 

[canina82]

Wildcard win is a major win for MSR

No, it's not. The best MSR we had in the last 20 years was last year and the race was won by the number one favorite.
It's almost saying sprint stages are now very entertaining (it's almost a race for survival) because there are a lot of sprinters who can win even if nothing happens all day.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

No wind or a tailwind is the same thing for an attacker. Those who are following his wheel are also riding with a tailwind. The only advantage is when you are alone. You can go faster (the chasing group can go faster too) and the difference is smaller.

Difference between 53 and 54 kph during 13 kms = 16"

Difference between 50 and 51 kph during 13 kms = 19"

Tailwind = higher speed = lower resistive force (given constant power) = considerably lower wind resistance (gravity and rolling resistance constant) = considerably lower % of power needed to overcome the wind = drafting making smaller difference

To sum up, when it's strong tailwind one saves less energy when trying to hold onto someone's wheel as the wind doesn't slow him down that much already (other forces "eat" more % of his power "pie")

 

[tobydawq]

It‘s a bit harder in Sanremo where they don‘t have to climb Kortekeer though and only climb on large two-lane roads. And Picnic don‘t have anyone to position them well enough because the majority of their riders suck.

I know (and it definitely isn't possible to block the road all the way up the Cipressa anyway for any team).

 

[Red Rick]

Tailwind = higher speed = lower resistive force (given constant power) = considerably lower wind resistance (gravity and rolling resistance constant) = considerably lower % of power needed to overcome the wind = drafting making smaller difference

To sum up, when it's tailwind one saves less energy when trying to hold onto someone's wheel as the wind doesn't slow him down that much already.

Counterpoint, he stated it confidently so it must be right

 

[tobydawq]

Matthew Brennan out due to sickness.

For Christ's sake, man...

 

[search]

No, it's not. The best MSR we had in the last 20 years was last year and the race was won by the number one favorite.

2025 was somehow enojoyable because it unfolded differently, but I wouldn't think it was the best - nor is it a scenario which is very desirable to happen again. What makes Sanremo exciting is the thrill of not knowing the outcome until almost the very end.

 

[Berniece]

Matthew Brennan out due to sickness.

For Christ's sake, man...

That's a big letdown for Visma

 

[Krzysztof_O]

2025 was somehow enojoyable because it unfolded differently, but I wouldn't think it was the best - nor is it a scenario which is very desirable to happen again. What makes Sanremo exciting is the thrill of not knowing the outcome until almost the very end.

2025 was great, surely (I think the best I remember). There was a long action with no certainty what will happen. But obviously it's good to have diversity so I don't mind if every MSR edition has a different scenario.

 

[canina82]

2025 was somehow enojoyable because it unfolded differently, but I wouldn't think it was the best - nor is it a scenario which is very desirable to happen again. What makes Sanremo exciting is the thrill of not knowing the outcome until almost the very end.

I just disagree. The only time MSR was actually enjoyable and not a race with action just in the last 10 minutes. Different opinions.

Regarding the race, with Brennan out, Wout and Matteo will probably be more agressive.

 

[Netserk]

laporte is the captain now !

https://twitter.com/x/status/2034912405398892813

View: https://x.com/vismaleaseabike/status/2034912405398892813

 

[canina82]

Tailwind = higher speed = lower resistive force (given constant power) = considerably lower wind resistance (gravity and rolling resistance constant) = considerably lower % of power needed to overcome the wind = drafting making smaller difference

To sum up, when it's strong tailwind one saves less energy when trying to hold onto someone's wheel as the wind doesn't slow him down that much already (other forces "eat" more % of his power "pie")

Thanks for the explanation.