Milano - Sanremo 2022, one day classic, March 19

[Skijumper Roglic fan]

Ganna‘s role in tomorrow‘s race will be interesting to see. He is someone who even could win this race, but certainly is not a top favorite. Ineos actually have six potential leaders (Hayter, Pidcock, Kwiat, Swifty, Viviani and Ganna), and only Luke Rowe as a domestique.

Only thing is clear: Ganna will not be able to do both - chase the breakaway from KM 0 on, AND win this race. And also their other five leaders will refuse to ride too early. So, probably, Ineos will just send Rowe to help UAE, Jumbo et al with the chase of the breakaway…

 

[Vesica]

For me it's super disappointing that Quickstep chose Jakobsen to replace Alaphilippe instead of Masnada. Imagine what Fausto could do if he and Pogacar attack on Cipressa or earlier on Poggio.

Fausto will be on the startline in Catalunya though and leading the team. Very exciting

Jakobsen was already selected, he was racing anyway, he was not Alaphillipe's replacement.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Don't think Ewan would have won anyway with the expected tailwind but it's still a major loss to the race. It doesn't mean Van Aert can simply hold back for the sprint though, tricky to close down the kind of gap Pogacar normally takes over a 20 or so-rider group.

 

[Red Rick]

Don't think Ewan would have won anyway with the expected tailwind but it's still a major loss to the race. It doesn't mean Van Aert can simply hold back for the sprint though, tricky to close down the kind of gap Pogacar normally takes over a 20 or so-rider group.

Mads Pedersen tho

 

[Netserk]

Don't think Ewan would have won anyway with the expected tailwind but it's still a major loss to the race. It doesn't mean Van Aert can simply hold back for the sprint though, tricky to close down the kind of gap Pogacar normally takes over a 20 or so-rider group.

Last year he was first over the top with a group too big , in 2020 he was second after Ala. It's much better for him if he can chase an attacker than if he has to be the one to force the selection.

Without Ala here, the expectation is that Pogi will force it on Poggio. If Ewan was here, there would be more eyes on Van Aert on the Poggio and more riders would hesitate and wait for his attack. We saw last year how Ala's attack came a bit later because everyone knew his attack was the one to wait for. The expectations are half the story of how Poggio is ridden.

 

[Bye Bye Bicycle]

This is inevitable now:

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Last year he was first over the top with a group too big , in 2020 he was second after Ala. It's much better for him if he can chase an attacker than if he has to be the one to force the selection.

Without Ala here, the expectation is that Pogi will force it on Poggio. If Ewan was here, there would be more eyes on Van Aert on the Poggio and more riders would hesitate and wait for his attack. We saw last year how Ala's attack came a bit later because everyone knew his attack was the one to wait for. The expectations are half the story of how Poggio is ridden.

Instead, everyone will look Van Aert and Jumbo in the chase now if he can't/won't follow Pogacar.

Mads Pedersen tho

Sanremo sprints are unpredictable and if things come back together I would be worried about losing to Pedersen (or someone else) if I was Van Aert, but not as worried as I would be about not catching Pogacar. Even on current form I would not back Pedersen to win that sprint.

 

[Red Rick]

Last year he was first over the top with a group too big , in 2020 he was second after Ala. It's much better for him if he can chase an attacker than if he has to be the one to force the selection.

Without Ala here, the expectation is that Pogi will force it on Poggio. If Ewan was here, there would be more eyes on Van Aert on the Poggio and more riders would hesitate and wait for his attack. We saw last year how Ala's attack came a bit later because everyone knew his attack was the one to wait for. The expectations are half the story of how Poggio is ridden.

Yeah very good point. I believe at least leaves uncertainty in that he might go early on the Poggio but youre right its fairly likely that his presence will simply dissuade a bunch of others from attacking.

My guess is Jumbo will want Rogla or Laporte with Van Aert in a small group over the top

 

[Ilmaestro99]

Everybody is underrating Alexander Kritsoff

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

I refuse to believe:
a) the poggio is hard enough
b) Pogacar is explosive enough

for him to "ride away" from everyone, especially types like Van Aert, on that sort of climb. I simply cannot fathom people keep comparing Tirreno 10% climbs, which were longer as well to this. Or Strade for that matter where he also escaped on the longest hard part. Its totally different kind of effort.

 

[tobydawq]

I refuse to believe:
a) the poggio is hard enough
b) Pogacar is explosive enough

for him to "ride away" from everyone, especially types like Van Aert, on that sort of climb. I simply cannot fathom people keep comparing Tirreno 10% climbs, which were longer as well to this. Or Strade for that matter where he also escaped on the longest hard part. Its totally different kind of effort.

Agreed 100%.

 

[topcat]

I'm doing a road trip tomorrow. @SafeBet What time do I need to do a burnout and break into the nearest house to catch the action/lack of action on Cipressa?

 

[Salvarani]

I refuse to believe:
a) the poggio is hard enough
b) Pogacar is explosive enough

for him to "ride away" from everyone, especially types like Van Aert, on that sort of climb. I simply cannot fathom people keep comparing Tirreno 10% climbs, which were longer as well to this. Or Strade for that matter where he also escaped on the longest hard part. Its totally different kind of effort.

At least he will try and it will be interesting to see what happens.

 

[SafeBet]

I'm doing a road trip tomorrow. @SafeBet What time do I need to do a burnout and break into the nearest house to catch the action/lack of action on Cipressa?

4 PM?
If the wind is as strong as forecasted perhaps a bit earlier.

 

[sir fly]

Hesitation's required for the attack on Poggio to work.
I doubt any top favourite's gonna get that luxury.

 

[Salvarani]

Hesitation's required for the attack on Poggio to work.
I doubt any top favourite's gonna get that luxury.

Might only be a few riders getting away, that could hold on to the finish.

 

[OlavEH]

Yeah Cipressa as final climb and adding stuff before would get more action. Pompeiana just deletes any balance. Attacks suddenly fly on a 12% secrion on top of 5% average climb making it impossible for guys like Stuyven and Pedersen as well

Nah, if you add Pompeiana and remove Poggio, I don't think it would change to much. The steeper section is only 400m long and it would mean over 9 km of flat section before the finish at Via Roma. I don't think Pompeiana + 9 km flat istead of Poggio + 2,5 km flat would change the balance too much and make impossible for those guys.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Are there even going to be any good sprinters in this race to contest a bunch sprint? With Ewan and Bennett now out sick too, it looks like there’s only Jakobsen even on the start list. If there’s a headwind and it somehow does come back together we could get a really random lower tier sprinter winning,

 

[Lequack]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1504816960042901515

View: https://twitter.com/RealStephens/status/1504816960042901515

 

[Netserk]

Are there even going to be any good sprinters in this race to contest a bunch sprint? With Ewan and Bennett now out sick too, it looks like there’s only Jakobsen even on the start list. If there’s a headwind and it somehow does come back together we could get a really random lower tier sprinter winning,

Philipsen should be the favourite if the attackers are brought back.

 

[search]

Philipsen should be the favourite if the attackers are brought back.

he also crashed and fell sick in Paris Nice, though. Not sure anyone made it through there unscathed - apart from the Jumbo guys apparently

 

[tobydawq]

Are there even going to be any good sprinters in this race to contest a bunch sprint? With Ewan and Bennett now out sick too, it looks like there’s only Jakobsen even on the start list. If there’s a headwind and it somehow does come back together we could get a really random lower tier sprinter winning,

Van Aert and Pedersen are much faster than random lower tier sprinters. Also, there will not be a headwind.

 

[search]

Van Aert and Pedersen are much faster than random lower tier sprinters. Also, there will not be a headwind.

there wasn't a headwind last year either, and guys like Ackermann still almost made it back. I wouldn't completely count out guys like Kristoff or Demare, who have a good sprint after a long race.

 

[sir fly]

Might only be a few riders getting away, that could hold on to the finish.

Sure. That's become a sort of norm.
A Nibali kind of solo will require a leeway. Hard to imagine in this field.

Might be broken like this:
What's the biggest gap one can make on Poggio and hold to the line?
We have plenty of data to tell.

 

[Red Rick]

Nah, if you add Pompeiana and remove Poggio, I don't think it would change to much. The steeper section is only 400m long and it would mean over 9 km of flat section before the finish at Via Roma. I don't think Pompeiana + 9 km flat istead of Poggio + 2,5 km flat would change the balance too much and make impossible for those guys.

Sprinter types would already be dropped or completely on the limit, they would easily drop 20s when a guy like Alaphilippe them launches on a steeler section. Its immediately impossibleb for a guy like Ewan or Stuyven to make it in the first group there.