Milano - Sanremo 2022, one day classic, March 19

[sir fly]

How do you forget something like that?

Get drunk.

 

[RedheadDane]

Throw Vingegaard in the mix. He ticks three of the four boxes.

Dane

Cyclist

Wasn't originally scheduled to do the Tour

But he only came somewhat close to winning.

He's clearly another example of a Dane not-winning a bike race.

 

[tobydawq]

He's clearly another example of a Dane not-winning a bike race.

Yes, that's what I said...

 

[RedheadDane]

Yes, that's what I said...

There were only three boxes:

Not-winning.
Non-cycling.
Non-Danes.

 

[tobydawq]

There were only three boxes:

Not-winning.
Non-cycling.
Non-Danes.

What? To qualify for your misled interpretation of the paramters outlaid by Devil's Elbow, one had to be 1) Danish, 2) a cyclist, 3) participated in something one was originally not supposed to do and 4) won it.

Vingegaard ticks 1, 2 and 3.

Rolf Sørensen only ticks two, by the way.

 

[Boes]

Not in the slightest. I can't even imagine a reasonable scenario where it could happen.

I do seen just one scenario.
A Jasper Stuyven scenario where the big guns look at each other at the bottum of the Poggio and he attacks then.

It is however, the only situation he could win imo.

 

[RedheadDane]

What? To qualify for your misled interpretation of the paramters outlaid by Devil's Elbow, one had to be 1) Danish, 2) a cyclist, 3) participated in something one was originally not supposed to do and 4) won it.

Vingegaard ticks 1, 2 and 3.

Rolf Sørensen only ticks two, by the way.

I'm not talking about his boxes. I'm talking about my boxes. My boxes are defined by what they are not.

But actually, there are four boxes:

Not-winning.
Non-cycling.
Non-Danes.
Not-Chris Harper

And of course Vingegaard ticks 2/4 of those.

 

[sir fly]

I do seen just one scenario.
A Jasper Stuyven scenario where the big guns look at each other at the bottum of the Poggio and he attacks then.

It is however, the only situation he could win imo.

Happened more than once...

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Frederik Løchte Nielsen's victory in the men's double tournament at the 2012 Wimbledon ticks all of the original boxes,

 

[jaylew]

I do seen just one scenario.
A Jasper Stuyven scenario where the big guns look at each other at the bottum of the Poggio and he attacks then.

It is however, the only situation he could win imo.

I did say reasonable scenario. He doesn't have the punch, strength, or speed to pull that off these days imo and there's no way Pogacar just sits there, waits, and does nothing on the Poggio.

 

[tobydawq]

I'm not talking about his boxes. I'm talking about my boxes. My boxes are defined by what they are not.

But actually, there are four boxes:

Not-winning.
Non-cycling.
Non-Danes.
Not-Chris Harper

And of course Vingegaard ticks 2/4 of those.

Okay

 

[Boes]

I did say reasonable scenario. He doesn't have the punch, strength, or speed to pull that off these days imo and there's no way Pogacar just sits there, waits, and does nothing on the Poggio.

I do agree with you that I don't Gilbert will win.
But just for argument's sake. Do you think Alaphillipe and WVA just sat there and did nothing on the Poggio last year?

It is possible that Pogacar and WVA cancel each other out (quiete like Ewan did with WVA and Alafpolak last year) and an outsider wins. I agree Gilbert is unlikely and I have my eyes on Pidcock or SKA but weirder things have happened in cycling.

 

[Pantani_lives]

Can Pog win three Saturdays in a row? Not impossible, but doubtful. He will be a marked man, especially by Jumbo. If he attacks on the Cipressa they can real him back in in the long valley. If he waits for the Poggio there will be an aggressive fight for position. The climb isn't steep, and it's followed by a technical descent. At the Olympics he lost a sprint to Van Aert for second place. The top favorite doesn't often win in the most nervous of classics.

 

[jaylew]

I do agree with you that I don't Gilbert will win.
But just for argument's sake. Do you think Alaphillipe and WVA just sat there and did nothing on the Poggio last year?

It is possible that Pogacar and WVA cancel each other out (quiete like Ewan did with WVA and Alafpolak last year) and an outsider wins. I agree Gilbert is unlikely and I have my eyes on Pidcock or SKA but weirder things have happened in cycling.

I don't even think Gilbert is good enough to be in a group of 15-20 like we had last year

 

[Boes]

I don't even think Gilbert is good enough to be in a group of 15-20 like we had last year

Yeah. On a good day maybe Paris Roubaix. But nothing punchy like flemish cobbles or Poggio.

 

[Leinster]

I don’t think so. He doesn’t have the puncheur power anymore to stay with the best (Wout) on the Poggio, nor does he have a good enough sprint to win if the peloton comes back together before the finish. Those are pretty much the only ways to win here. It’s too bad because I thought he had it won in 2011 when he attacked out of the elite finishing group. But Pozzatto chased him down bringing the others back as well. This resulting in a sprint that Goss, the only one who wasn’t an elite classics rider in that finale, won.

This. Gilbert can’t follow the attacks of the guys he can out sprint any more, and can’t out sprint the group that can follow the attacks he can go with. (And then there’s the really top riders right now who he can neither follow nor out sprint).


But I would have said the same about Demare in 2016, so yes, there’s always a chance in MSR.

 

[SHAD0W93]

Honestly Gilbert pulling the unimaginable and winning would be amazing and would be his first win since 2019.

Looking back with his skill set it’s kind of crazy he didn’t reach 100 wins.

 

[Savant12]

Is Ewan fit for this or is he out, too?

 

[Pantani_lives]

Is Ewan fit for this or is he out, too?

He's fit and motivated. He said Gilbert and he are both leaders, but I think the team's hope is a sprint with Ewan. He said he has focused more on climbing than on sprinting recently.

 

[SHAD0W93]

He's fit and motivated. He said Gilbert and he are both leaders, but I think the team's hope is a sprint with Ewan. He said he has focused more on climbing than on sprinting recently.

Even better, Gilbert can go solo while everyone is worried about dragging him or Jakobsen. Or WVA goes with Gilbert and let’s him win out of the kindness of his heart.

 

[movingtarget]

Even with Pogacar's form I still like Ewan's chances. Team tactics will also probably help Ewan out.

 

[gregrowlerson]

Honestly Gilbert pulling the unimaginable and winning would be amazing and would be his first win since 2019.

Looking back with his skill set it’s kind of crazy he didn’t reach 100 wins.

Not being that big a one day fan, I haven't followed his career as closely as most, but I think he's an interesting case study, as he had those few seasons in the 'prime' of his career where he sort of disappeared, yet he had those actual peaks roughly 2010-12, 2017-19.

As it stands, I don't think he can feel at all disappointed with 4 of 5 monuments, plus a world championship.

Maybe those mysterious seasons are for a different forum.

 

[OlavEH]

You cannot have Sanremo both keep sprinters in the mix as well as enable action before the Poggio unless you get rid of the Poggio.

Maybe there is a world in which you add Le Manie and have the Cipressa as the final climb in which case you force teams to drill the capi.

Pompeiana is frankly way too hard for what Sanremo is about

I would be perfectly fine with that. San Remo has always changed. First by adding Poggio, then Cipressa, and now I think it's time to change again. For instance by replacing Cipressa with Pompeiana. An alternative could be replacing Poggio with Pompeiana, but this would probably be pretty much the same as it is today. It would possible to gain somewhat more time on the last climb, but they would certainly need it since it would increase the final flat section to something like 9 km.

Cipressa as the last climb could be interesting, but then you would certainly need more than Le Manie before that to make anything more than a pure sprinters classic. The real easy Cipressa + 13 km of flat would make it much easier for the sprint teams to contral. Adding Civezza and perhaps the climb to Colle di Cosa would be an absolute must.

 

[OlavEH]

Nice that Pedersen is starting. After that immense sprint in PN, he must be the second favorite IMO: And perhaps Van der Poel also. This is suddenly shaping up to be much more interesting than I thought a couple of days ago!

 

[Skijumper Roglic fan]

Last Saturday, Primoz won in France, and Tadej won in Italy. Tomorrow, they both race in Italy, against each other.

I, this time, expect a breakaway of Roglic, Pogi, van Aert and Ganna, from Cipressa on.

My dream is that Primoz attacks this breakaway of four, in the descent from Poggio, just to prove he has become the rider with the best bike handling skills in the peloton, over the winter.

Perfect scenario: Solo victory Roglic, and Wout beats Pogi and Ganna for second.