Milano - Sanremo 2023, one day monument, March 18

[BR2]

I just don't see anyone really getting rid of van Aert. And I don't see him riding away or winning the sprint of a small group, either. So I would think it is someone who can keep up with him and then outsprints him (and the others). I just don't have any idea who that could be. Maybe Aranburu? Pedersen? Or van der Poel after all?

 

[Red Rick]

Just rewatched Poggio from last year. His streak of accelerations was really impressive, it takes super-fast recovery to repeat those surges. He definitely lost much energy due to that early attack against the wind. I he focuses his attacks more he can get a gap but it will be him vs the rest of the world there so a tough task.

If everyone is sort of fresh I'm not sure I believe Pogacar has the best 30s W/kg in the world by a big enough margin to offset the draft.

 

[Skijumper Roglic fan]

It‘s a disadvantage for Pogacar that after 2022, everyone knows he (Pog) isn‘t willing to take 100% risk in the descent of the Poggio.

His team is very strong, normally his full team should go to the front before Cipressa, then Pog can attack on the Cipressa. His teammates then try to disturb the chasers.

 

[topcat]

Pog and Ala will get away on the steep section. Ala will drop him on the descent and solo to victory…

 

[Carrick-On-Seine]

Lol imagine having to listen to that Kirby idiot for 6 hours.

There'd be some funny moments whereas with Hatch it would just be 6 hours of bollocks.

Impossible to predict this but I put a fiver on Gaviria finally coming good.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Realistically this is not a climb that any particular rider can make a big difference. For that to be a sure thing. That is likely on why the outcome is hard to predict. And on why it's a nice race to watch. The winner usually has to achieve something special.

 

[Lequack]

Pantani Cipressa attack in 1999

https://twitter.com/x/status/1636313596069130241

View: https://twitter.com/opaisdociclismo/status/1636313596069130241?s=20

 

[Ilmaestro99]

The outcome is clear. Bettiol attacks the select group on the final 800m of the poggio with an explosive violent attack and they all look at each other. Mohoric bridges in the descent and they 2-up sprint for the win, Bettiol win on a photo finish

 

[Lequack]

The outcome is clear. Bettiol attacks the select group on the final 800m of the poggio with an explosive violent attack and they all look at each other. Mohoric bridges in the descent and they 2-up sprint for the win, Bettiol win on a photo finish

I'd pay to see that.

 

[Lequack]

Tim Wellens replaces Davide Formolo for UAE

https://twitter.com/x/status/1636321961860104198

View: https://twitter.com/TeamEmiratesUAE/status/1636321961860104198

 

[Netserk]

Yeah he should wait for the part where they normally attack. If you'd overlay it with the profile, once the switchbacks end and tailwind starts, you're onto a flat section before the only steeper part.

The most recent forecast has the wind a bit more northern and stronger, so the last part is more from the side than behind. But it's clear that he should not (yet again) attack where he did last year (red dot). That was a clear mistake.

No that does not mean that the only option left is 1 km from the top, it means that he should not eat the wind in the longest headwind stretch and instead attack with ~2.3 km to go at the earliest.

 

[Netserk]

Tim Wellens replaces Davide Formolo for UAE

I was puzzled that he wasn't in to begin with.

 

[Unterlenkerfahrend]

I was puzzled that he wasn't in to begin with.

I think they actually wanted to give him a break, he's had a ridiculous amount of race days already this season (22 in 45 days), bit of a weird planning.

 

[Lequack]

Yes he's in great shape, but they've been using him up a lot. Hopefully he gets to race for himself too.

 

[Red Rick]

The most recent forecast has the wind a bit more northern and stronger, so the last part is more from the side than behind. But it's clear that he should not (yet again) attack where he did last year (red dot). That was a clear mistake.

No that does not mean that the only option left is 1 km from the top, it means that he should not eat the wind in the longest headwind stretch and instead attack with ~2.3 km to go at the earliest.

The section you suggest is actually easier.

I think it's gonna be more down to positioning. He needs noone good on his wheel, and preferably the wheel behind him. Attacks are just very easy to follow on 4% if you're right on the wheel. But once someone is gone early on the Poggio the chase doesn't really work that well either.

I think the best way to pace the Poggio in the first place is to not pace it evenly but kick it super hard out of the switchbacks.

 

[Netserk]

3.5 % with a tailwind is harder than 5 % with a headwind.

 

[Red Rick]

3.5 % with a tailwind is harder than 5 % with a headwind.

That's a weird reason to attack on 3.5% when you can attack on 7% with tailwind. And headwind might not be as bad if you can get your nose on the motor.

 

[Netserk]

That's a weird reason to attack on 3.5% when you can attack on 7% with tailwind.

I responded to this: "If you'd overlay it with the profile, once the switchbacks end and tailwind starts, you're onto a flat section before the only steeper part."

The tailwind starts earlier, so arguing against a headwind attack is not the same as arguing for the usual spot being the only spot to attack on.

I didn't argue that the earlier spot was better than the usual, just that it was viable as well, and the best place before the flat section.

 

[Billie]

I think they actually wanted to give him a break, he's had a ridiculous amount of race days already this season (22 in 45 days), bit of a weird planning.

It makes a lot of sense to use him a lot now cause in the summer he's just not as effective because of the weather and allergies etc.

 

[Taxus4a]

The fact that Freire in 2010 is still the last repeat winner makes clear that this race is hard to dominate. "The easiest to ride, the hardest to win," has often been said about this monument.

Usually nothing important happens before the final 10 km. Then it all goes very fast. This most nervous of classics takes a combination of explosiveness, tactics, technique, luck and daredevilry. The average age of the winner is much younger than in the cobbled classics.

The course is mostly flat with two molehills towards the end. The Poggio isn't steep enough for Pogi. The best chance is for someone who can follow on the hills and finish with a good sprint. Van Aert or Mohoric might become the first repeat winner in thirteen years, but it might just as well be an outsider.

Maybe now we can understand hoy difficult is what Freire did. O nevera empattyzed too much with him when he rodé but he was a Rider with very bad luck with injuries, and when he was good he had the talent yo get really difficult victories. Of course he was Lucky, without luck is imposible but he had that gran talento.

 

[Didinho]

Was looking forward to Formolo's pain face on the Cipressa. What a shame.

 

[tobydawq]

O nevera empattyzed too much with him when he rodé

Wat

 

[Peyroteo94]

Maybe now we can understand hoy difficult is what Freire did. O nevera empattyzed too much with him when he rodé but he was a Rider with very bad luck with injuries, and when he was good he had the talent yo get really difficult victories. Of course he was Lucky, without luck is imposible but he had that gran talento.

I will always remember when someone shoot him in the leg. One of the most bizarre moments in cycling I ever witnessed

 

[Riek s]

In most cases it is not the strongest who wins, but the one who attacks or waits (lucks out) at the right time.

Eeither in the downhill (to not crash when riding at above the limit to get away), or that they don't close the gap when attacking the final km on the flat (either solo or with a 2-3 riders).

Typically a very entertaining final 20km or so.. but in terms of predictability one of the worst of all races

 

[Elos Anjos]

Was looking forward to Formolo's pain face on the Cipressa. What a shame.

That can actually be a worthy thread.

Best painful face yearly edition.

Nairo pokerface.