Milano - Sanremo 2025, one day monument, March 22

[rghysens]

Tadej now has the fastest Strava time on Cipressa at 8:59. No power nor heart rate date but an average speed of 37,6 km/h. Ganna and Van der Poel should be a second or two behind.

Someone will surely calculate estimated power required for this effort.

Tailwind, always tailwind since covid.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Tailwind, always tailwind since covid.

Somebody should do research regarding COVID and climate change relationship.

 

[Netserk]

While the clips are in wrong order, you can see who were in which groups after Cipressa here:

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2rTE58DjHbc

 

[Tim Cahill]

Becoming a climbers race you say?

There's only one man with the ability to follow who is also not foolish enough to start ego-pulling on the flat with Van Der Poel, a monument champion in fact.

 

[Escarabajo]

So how the hell will other teams, beside UAE and Alpecin, approach MSR next year given that Pog has rewritten the rules? Every other team will know that Pog will do Cipressa in 9 minutes and that only one or maybe two other riders can match that. This new reality must be a headscratch for many teams.

An yet, He cannot win. His chances as he stands now are low. Not to mention that next year there could be 5 in the group. Probably more alert and better prepared.

 

[Tanakka]

The kind of "funny" aspect is that:

- the presence of MVDP makes winning MSR for Pogi "almost impossible"
while
- the presence of Pocagar probably increases a lot the odds of winning MSR for MVDP/Alpecin

Tadej basically is a huge help in killing everyone else, because while MVDP is the strongest it wouldn't be as easy for him to break everyone else, or at least most of the somewhat fast guys, in MSR as it is in P-R.
Given its peculiarities, MSR is (would be) more of a crapshoot. It's not like some other monuments where the strongest guy wins, or at the very least does podium, 80-85% of the time. MSR is different.
But then this crazy slovenian comes along and is able to do incredible selection even in MSR.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

It's incredible that yesterday Pogi and UAE basically bent "sprinters classic" to their will and changed it into a climbing battle. It took one of the best one-day racers ever to prevent them from complete success. Edition to remember, a new way of racing MSR.

 

[E_F_]

It took one of the best one-day racers ever to prevent them from complete success.

Are we entirely certain that Ganna wouldn't have caught up to Pogacar more easily had MvdP not been there? I'm quite sure he'd win the sprint as well.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Are we entirely certain that Ganna wouldn't have caught up to Pogacar more easily had MvdP not been there? I'm quite sure he'd win the sprint as well.

Pogacar would've dropped Ganna earlier and wouldn't have to make these crazy, tiring accelerations vs MVP (applying a steady pace instead). He was pacing Poggio anyway (almost no help from MVP) but doing a steady pace would've been more efficient. Plus remember that they were also caught because of pre-sprinting games while normally Pogi would have been going a bloc in the final section.

 

[Berniece]

Tadej now has the fastest Strava time on Cipressa at 8:59. No power nor heart rate date but an average speed of 37,6 km/h. Ganna and Van der Poel should be a second or two behind.

Someone will surely calculate estimated power required for this effort.

How is this calculated? Does the time start when Wellens was in the front and ended when Pogi was at the top. Or the time when Pogi started the climb and finished on top?

 

[Unchained]

Some pics

Great shots as usual!! Thanks!!

 

[Unchained]

It's incredible that yesterday Pogi and UAE basically bent "sprinters classic" to their will and changed it into a climbing battle. It took one of the best one-day racers ever to prevent them from complete success. Edition to remember, a new way of racing MSR.

Totally agree with you.. If UAE thought that there was enough elevation gain that Tim Wellens, Isaac Del Toro were going to roast riders like Matthews, MVP, Pidcock off the train by going 110% on 4-6% short grades was crazy.. UAE did the equivalent of sprints at the base of smaller climbs and it had some effect but not much..Del Toro ended up finishing 13th would have been better if he got in a group with Pogacar instead of trying to do some burn off lead out silliness. Same with Narvaez guy had something to give but why sprint for @3-400 meters, blow up???
Narvaez is a talent and could have contributed as a teammate instead of a short run locomotive which doesn't ( didn't) suit him.. He got 85th instead of top 10..
34 year old Michael Matthews rode another excellent race, stayed within himself, rode to respectable 4th..What would Del Toro or Wellens, Nav got if they didn't do some stupid uphill lead out train? Pidcock had bad ride with 40th place!!

 

[Barkintheeye]

How is this calculated? Does the time start when Wellens was in the front and ended when Pogi was at the top. Or the time when Pogi started the climb and finished on top?

Strava segments starts and ends at certain geo-points that are picked up by the device recording the ride eg Garmin. The time starts when Pog passes the start point ie some seconds later thanTW and it ends when Pog passes the end of the segment.

 

[Sciatic]

So how the hell will other teams, beside UAE and Alpecin, approach MSR next year given that Pog has rewritten the rules? Every other team will know that Pog will do Cipressa in 9 minutes and that only one or maybe two other riders can match that. This new reality must be a headscratch for many teams.

Perhaps (though unlikely because of conservative DS's) some teams might approach it like a big multi-mountain stage and have some decent riders go off the front to be satellites to help pull for riders trying to stay close enough to go to the finale with MVDP/Pog/Ganna. Of course, many problems with this--for instance you can't have support riders join the break with 250 km to go and expect them to be of any help late in the race. Also those top 3 are simply too good anyways.

 

[Taxus4a]

It's the only way he can win. Either he drops him or he doesn't. Some people said he was 'dragging him up the Poggio', which I think is bull.
He just tried to attack with everything he had. And it either works or it doesn't. Those climbs just aren't steep enough against a MvdP with good legs.
Had he ridden more conservatively, the group would have made it back and he would never even make the podium.
Maybe people should just accept this course doesn't suit Pog when an in shape Mathieu is there. Nothing to be done about it.

No, It is not the only way he can win. You have to choose the stepedt part of those soft climbs tk attack really hard, but once you are in a soft oart if VdP IS at your wheel he must be at his wheel, always at his wheel..if he stop, no problem, maybe another rider attack later, and MVDP as the main favourite and stronger Rider than Pogi has to attack...
Second..in the flat between Cipresa and Poggio , with 1 minute advantage..why to pull even more than MVDP??? Why??? That very stupid, he is a better Sprinter and apoggio is a soft climbs to drop him..
He attacked to times on the Poggio, the second one in a flat part after stop very little and didnt take really time at another wheel..that is very stupid...and at the end, when you are alone with MVDP after apoggio, always at his wheel...always, and he was pulling a lot trying Ganna didnt conet, as he want to be second...with Ganna he had a chance, MVDP has to take care of 2 Riders, but just with MVDP and pulling...no way, NO WAY.

It is not attack and attack as crazy, It is to attack when you can make pain and if dont work stop and look for a mistake of your rival.

Thay didnt use welnl the team. Del Toro??? Burbthat is another history, even doping the same the team he had a chance and he refused that chance riding as a junior. He is stil a Júnior..with the level of Merckx bur no more than a junior.
I really wanted he won this race, i really wanted he get all monuments. But he has to improve tactically for this race.

 

[hayneplane]

Perhaps (though unlikely because of conservative DS's) some teams might approach it like a big multi-mountain stage and have some decent riders go off the front to be satellites to help pull for riders trying to stay close enough to go to the finale with MVDP/Pog/Ganna. Of course, many problems with this--for instance you can't have support riders join the break with 250 km to go and expect them to be of any help late in the race. Also those top 3 are simply too good anyways.

A group of riders trying to break from the peloton to form an intermediate group between the foot of the Turchino descent and the Capi might make for an interesting development.

 

[scribers]

No, It is not the only way he can win. You have to choose the stepedt part of those soft climbs tk attack really hard, but once you are in a soft oart if VdP IS at your wheel he must be at his wheel, always at his wheel..if he stop, no problem, maybe another rider attack later, and MVDP as the main favourite and stronger Rider than Pogi has to attack...
Second..in the flat between Cipresa and Poggio , with 1 minute advantage..why to pull even more than MVDP??? Why??? That very stupid, he is a better Sprinter and apoggio is a soft climbs to drop him..
He attacked to times on the Poggio, the second one in a flat part after stop very little and didnt take really time at another wheel..that is very stupid...and at the end, when you are alone with MVDP after apoggio, always at his wheel...always, and he was pulling a lot trying Ganna didnt conet, as he want to be second...with Ganna he had a chance, MVDP has to take care of 2 Riders, but just with MVDP and pulling...no way, NO WAY.

It is not attack and attack as crazy, It is to attack when you can make pain and if dont work stop and look for a mistake of your rival.

Thay didnt use welnl the team. Del Toro??? Burbthat is another history, even doping the same the team he had a chance and he refused that chance riding as a junior. He is stil a Júnior..with the level of Merckx bur no more than a junior.
I really wanted he won this race, i really wanted he get all monuments. But he has to improve tactically for this race.

agreed. You have to risk everything by letting the group back to them on the flat to the poggio. After the poggio you have to let ganna cause problems for mvp. Pogi missed both crucial opportunities to soften the hell out of mvp for any chance.

 

[Bolder]

Nah, he hasn't been at his best ever since the 2021 WC.

He's pretty much done and I don't know of too many comebacks in cycling like that. When you're done, you're done and it is unlikely you'll get back to the top.
When Sagan was done, he was done, he just wasn't relevant anymore.

Which saddens me alot because Loulou was my favorite rider in the peloton.

me too. I loved Alaf between 2017 and 2021. But every rider has a use-by date. I think he's still got a few minor wins in him but he's not going to win a monument or his favorite race, the BP, ever again unless there's some very unusual circumstances.

 

[Barkintheeye]

The estimated average power of TPs Cipressa climb given the below input is guesstimated to be somewhere in the range of:

Average power: 460-480W
Average power / kg: 7.1 - 7.3W

Time: 08:59
Ascent: 229 mtrs
Distance: 5,630 mtrs
Av speed: 37.6 km/h
Tail wind est: 11 km/h (3 m/s)
Weight: 65 kg
Total weight: 72.8 kg
VAM: 1,527.5
Rolling resistance: 22W
Wind resistance: 152W
Ascent power: 303W

Without assumption of tailwind: 745W but then the assumption of the rider's frontal area (0,6 m2) might be overstated and so might the rolling resistance also be. Yet then again Pog drafted until Narvaez had made his final pull so quite hard to get all factors.

 

[Taxus4a]

The estimated average power of TPs Cipressa climb given the below input is guesstimated to be somewhere in the range of:

Average power: 460-480W
Average power / kg: 7.1 - 7.3W

Time: 08:59
Ascent: 229 mtrs
Distance: 5,630 mtrs
Av speed: 37.6 km/h
Tail wind est: 11 km/h (3 m/s)
Weight: 65 kg
Total weight: 72.8 kg
VAM: 1,527.5
Rolling resistance: 22W
Wind resistance: 152W
Ascent power: 303W

Without assumption of tailwind: 745W but then the assumption of the rider's frontal area (0,6 m2) might be overstated and so might the rolling resistance also be. Yet then again Pog drafted until Narvaez had made his final pull so quite hard to get all factors.

Lot of tailwind this year, no possible to compare

 

[Berniece]

Wonder when UAE is going to decide to use multiple cards instead of always trying with Pogacar. They have the riders to go for a win that isn't Pogacar.

 

[Lequack]

Wonder when UAE is going to decide to use multiple cards instead of always trying with Pogacar. They have the riders to go for a win that isn't Pogacar.

Or at least make a deal with Remco.

 

[Red Rick]

The estimated average power of TPs Cipressa climb given the below input is guesstimated to be somewhere in the range of:

Average power: 460-480W
Average power / kg: 7.1 - 7.3W

Time: 08:59
Ascent: 229 mtrs
Distance: 5,630 mtrs
Av speed: 37.6 km/h
Tail wind est: 11 km/h (3 m/s)
Weight: 65 kg
Total weight: 72.8 kg
VAM: 1,527.5
Rolling resistance: 22W
Wind resistance: 152W
Ascent power: 303W

Without assumption of tailwind: 745W but then the assumption of the rider's frontal area (0,6 m2) might be overstated and so might the rolling resistance also be. Yet then again Pog drafted until Narvaez had made his final pull so quite hard to get all factors.

Drafting usually very underestimated on such climbs, especially when groups are larger and wind resistance is reduced by more than 50%.

The power estimate from the moment he attacks to the top of the climb is much more interesting.

 

[Rule #9 apostle]

Wonder when UAE is going to decide to use multiple cards instead of always trying with Pogacar. They have the riders to go for a win that isn't Pogacar.

I thought so before this year's race. Didn't think he had a clear way to win so i had some stupid ideas for how they could play wellens or someone like that. But now it's obvious pog can explode this race as well at will. If he keeps going on cipressa its just a matter of time before he gets it. Either by going alone or just getting better odds in a small group for the poggio. No other rider except mvdp can creat those odds for himself at msr. What other uae rider is a better bet than that?

(This is of course not even a real question in that team anyways... As long as pog wants to race, he obviously gets full support)

 

[Scarponi]

Only thing that would have made this race any more epic if Pogacar had a better sprint. Imagine them in a photo finish