Tailwind, always tailwind since covid.
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- Jul 7, 2013
- 6,351
- 12,240
- 23,180
Somebody should do research regarding COVID and climate change relationship.
- Apr 30, 2011
- 44,652
- 26,896
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While the clips are in wrong order, you can see who were in which groups after Cipressa here:
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2rTE58DjHbc
- May 6, 2021
- 9,996
- 18,382
- 17,180
- Apr 16, 2009
- 17,362
- 6,431
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An yet, He cannot win. His chances as he stands now are low. Not to mention that next year there could be 5 in the group. Probably more alert and better prepared.
The kind of "funny" aspect is that:
- the presence of MVDP makes winning MSR for Pogi "almost impossible"
while
- the presence of Pocagar probably increases a lot the odds of winning MSR for MVDP/Alpecin
Tadej basically is a huge help in killing everyone else, because while MVDP is the strongest it wouldn't be as easy for him to break everyone else, or at least most of the somewhat fast guys, in MSR as it is in P-R.
Given its peculiarities, MSR is (would be) more of a crapshoot. It's not like some other monuments where the strongest guy wins, or at the very least does podium, 80-85% of the time. MSR is different.
But then this crazy slovenian comes along and is able to do incredible selection even in MSR.
- the presence of MVDP makes winning MSR for Pogi "almost impossible"
while
- the presence of Pocagar probably increases a lot the odds of winning MSR for MVDP/Alpecin
Tadej basically is a huge help in killing everyone else, because while MVDP is the strongest it wouldn't be as easy for him to break everyone else, or at least most of the somewhat fast guys, in MSR as it is in P-R.
Given its peculiarities, MSR is (would be) more of a crapshoot. It's not like some other monuments where the strongest guy wins, or at the very least does podium, 80-85% of the time. MSR is different.
But then this crazy slovenian comes along and is able to do incredible selection even in MSR.
- Jul 7, 2013
- 6,351
- 12,240
- 23,180
It's incredible that yesterday Pogi and UAE basically bent "sprinters classic" to their will and changed it into a climbing battle. It took one of the best one-day racers ever to prevent them from complete success. Edition to remember, a new way of racing MSR.
- Jul 16, 2024
- 1,272
- 1,443
- 5,180
Are we entirely certain that Ganna wouldn't have caught up to Pogacar more easily had MvdP not been there? I'm quite sure he'd win the sprint as well.
- Jul 7, 2013
- 6,351
- 12,240
- 23,180
Pogacar would've dropped Ganna earlier and wouldn't have to make these crazy, tiring accelerations vs MVP (applying a steady pace instead). He was pacing Poggio anyway (almost no help from MVP) but doing a steady pace would've been more efficient. Plus remember that they were also caught because of pre-sprinting games while normally Pogi would have been going a bloc in the final section.
- Sep 12, 2022
- 5,990
- 7,413
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How is this calculated? Does the time start when Wellens was in the front and ended when Pogi was at the top. Or the time when Pogi started the climb and finished on top?
Great shots as usual!! Thanks!!Some pics
Totally agree with you.. If UAE thought that there was enough elevation gain that Tim Wellens, Isaac Del Toro were going to roast riders like Matthews, MVP, Pidcock off the train by going 110% on 4-6% short grades was crazy.. UAE did the equivalent of sprints at the base of smaller climbs and it had some effect but not much..Del Toro ended up finishing 13th would have been better if he got in a group with Pogacar instead of trying to do some burn off lead out silliness. Same with Narvaez guy had something to give but why sprint for @3-400 meters, blow up???
Narvaez is a talent and could have contributed as a teammate instead of a short run locomotive which doesn't ( didn't) suit him.. He got 85th instead of top 10..
34 year old Michael Matthews rode another excellent race, stayed within himself, rode to respectable 4th..What would Del Toro or Wellens, Nav got if they didn't do some stupid uphill lead out train? Pidcock had bad ride with 40th place!!
- Feb 24, 2015
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Strava segments starts and ends at certain geo-points that are picked up by the device recording the ride eg Garmin. The time starts when Pog passes the start point ie some seconds later thanTW and it ends when Pog passes the end of the segment.
Perhaps (though unlikely because of conservative DS's) some teams might approach it like a big multi-mountain stage and have some decent riders go off the front to be satellites to help pull for riders trying to stay close enough to go to the finale with MVDP/Pog/Ganna. Of course, many problems with this--for instance you can't have support riders join the break with 250 km to go and expect them to be of any help late in the race. Also those top 3 are simply too good anyways.
- Aug 12, 2012
- 6,990
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No, It is not the only way he can win. You have to choose the stepedt part of those soft climbs tk attack really hard, but once you are in a soft oart if VdP IS at your wheel he must be at his wheel, always at his wheel..if he stop, no problem, maybe another rider attack later, and MVDP as the main favourite and stronger Rider than Pogi has to attack...
Second..in the flat between Cipresa and Poggio , with 1 minute advantage..why to pull even more than MVDP??? Why??? That very stupid, he is a better Sprinter and apoggio is a soft climbs to drop him..
He attacked to times on the Poggio, the second one in a flat part after stop very little and didnt take really time at another wheel..that is very stupid...and at the end, when you are alone with MVDP after apoggio, always at his wheel...always, and he was pulling a lot trying Ganna didnt conet, as he want to be second...with Ganna he had a chance, MVDP has to take care of 2 Riders, but just with MVDP and pulling...no way, NO WAY.
It is not attack and attack as crazy, It is to attack when you can make pain and if dont work stop and look for a mistake of your rival.
Thay didnt use welnl the team. Del Toro??? Burbthat is another history, even doping the same the team he had a chance and he refused that chance riding as a junior. He is stil a Júnior..with the level of Merckx bur no more than a junior.
I really wanted he won this race, i really wanted he get all monuments. But he has to improve tactically for this race.
- Sep 4, 2017
- 3,057
- 3,510
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A group of riders trying to break from the peloton to form an intermediate group between the foot of the Turchino descent and the Capi might make for an interesting development.
- Oct 30, 2023
- 4,126
- 6,237
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agreed. You have to risk everything by letting the group back to them on the flat to the poggio. After the poggio you have to let ganna cause problems for mvp. Pogi missed both crucial opportunities to soften the hell out of mvp for any chance.
me too. I loved Alaf between 2017 and 2021. But every rider has a use-by date. I think he's still got a few minor wins in him but he's not going to win a monument or his favorite race, the BP, ever again unless there's some very unusual circumstances.
- Feb 24, 2015
- 778
- 772
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The estimated average power of TPs Cipressa climb given the below input is guesstimated to be somewhere in the range of:
Average power: 460-480W
Average power / kg: 7.1 - 7.3W
Time: 08:59
Ascent: 229 mtrs
Distance: 5,630 mtrs
Av speed: 37.6 km/h
Tail wind est: 11 km/h (3 m/s)
Weight: 65 kg
Total weight: 72.8 kg
VAM: 1,527.5
Rolling resistance: 22W
Wind resistance: 152W
Ascent power: 303W
Without assumption of tailwind: 745W but then the assumption of the rider's frontal area (0,6 m2) might be overstated and so might the rolling resistance also be. Yet then again Pog drafted until Narvaez had made his final pull so quite hard to get all factors.
Average power: 460-480W
Average power / kg: 7.1 - 7.3W
Time: 08:59
Ascent: 229 mtrs
Distance: 5,630 mtrs
Av speed: 37.6 km/h
Tail wind est: 11 km/h (3 m/s)
Weight: 65 kg
Total weight: 72.8 kg
VAM: 1,527.5
Rolling resistance: 22W
Wind resistance: 152W
Ascent power: 303W
Without assumption of tailwind: 745W but then the assumption of the rider's frontal area (0,6 m2) might be overstated and so might the rolling resistance also be. Yet then again Pog drafted until Narvaez had made his final pull so quite hard to get all factors.
- Aug 12, 2012
- 6,990
- 1,007
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- Jul 10, 2014
- 14,387
- 24,170
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- Feb 20, 2012
- 50,180
- 37,375
- 28,180
Drafting usually very underestimated on such climbs, especially when groups are larger and wind resistance is reduced by more than 50%.
The power estimate from the moment he attacks to the top of the climb is much more interesting.
- Oct 4, 2024
- 45
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I thought so before this year's race. Didn't think he had a clear way to win so i had some stupid ideas for how they could play wellens or someone like that. But now it's obvious pog can explode this race as well at will. If he keeps going on cipressa its just a matter of time before he gets it. Either by going alone or just getting better odds in a small group for the poggio. No other rider except mvdp can creat those odds for himself at msr. What other uae rider is a better bet than that?
(This is of course not even a real question in that team anyways... As long as pog wants to race, he obviously gets full support)
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