Milano - Sanremo 2025, one day monument, March 22

[Brullnux]

If you ignore times when he says *** like "I didn't think positioning before the final Oude Kwaremont" or misses a complete briefing and crashes out the first lap of an Olympic MTB race, or misses an echelon in the first hour of RvV 2023, or when he forgot to eat and lost himself a WCRR he was the favorite for, he is a genius indeed. Also, going for attrition lost him RVV the last 2 times he lost it.

He's gotten smarter racing wise, but he's made a lot of very dumb mistakes along the way.

And I didn't even remotely criticize him for racing for Philipsen. I just said that because I think it wasn't an adaptation during the race, I think it was always the plan. Also got himself boxed in before Pogs attack by the way.

And by the way, his positioning is great when he wants too. He just gets into the wrong spot on the regular because he misinterprets the race.

He also messed up the last Gent Wevelgem when Lidl-Trek hung Jonathan Milan out as a carrot and he chased for like 20km straight, ignoring that he had Pedersen (and Stuyven who ended up puncturing) on his wheel.

 

[Gratemans]

He also messed up the last Gent Wevelgem when Lidl-Trek hung Jonathan Milan out as a carrot and he chased for like 20km straight, ignoring that he had Pedersen (and Stuyven who ended up puncturing) on his wheel.

Tbf, he once won a Classic after bringing back half the peloton

 

[Sciatic]

I mantain that Pog's best shot at a win here is going solo from Cipressa. As Trentin told me last year: "if he does a sub 9 minute time on Cipressa he's gonna be alone at the top".
The trickiest part is having at least 3 teammates in front of him at the bottom. 4 would be optimal but extremely difficult.
None of the UAE rider should hit the front until the Capi are over. They tried taking control of the race from the Capi last year and failed.

Regardless of whether he has a gap at the top, isn't the main problem with going on Cipressa staying away on the descent and the flats with a full peloton (including sprinter teams full of rouleurs) chasing?

 

[scribers]

I don't understand why people think MVDP should've tried to attack himself those last 3km's instead of riding for Philipsen. It's a team sport after all, and Philipsen was the fastest sprinter back then.

Like I said it worked out. Pedersen is no slouch and he got outsprinted by pogi who attacked on multiple occasions, spending time in the wind.

 

[scribers]

Regardless of whether he has a gap at the top, isn't the main problem with going on Cipressa staying away on the descent and the flats with a full peloton (including sprinter teams full of rouleurs) chasing?

They cant regather fast enough as bodies will be everywhere. Groups of 6-8 riders will be chasing for most of the flat and none of them want to be in the wind

 

[Berniece]

Like I said it worked out. Pedersen is no slouch and he got outsprinted by pogi who attacked on multiple occasions, spending time in the wind.

If it didn’t work out and Matthews would have won, should he have done something different then?

In that situation, in those last 3km’s the odds of Philipsen winning were higher than riding for himself. Shouldn’t you go for the biggest chance of winning with the team instead of going for the win for yourself?

 

[Sciatic]

He also messed up the last Gent Wevelgem when Lidl-Trek hung Jonathan Milan out as a carrot and he chased for like 20km straight, ignoring that he had Pedersen (and Stuyven who ended up puncturing) on his wheel.

Getting arrested before the World's isn't all that astute either

 

[Netserk]

9.2 km of flat between the two climbs. It'd still be suicide even with a gap of 30" if you are on your own.

 

[scribers]

If it didn’t work out and Matthews would have won, should he have done something different then?

In that situation, in those last 3km’s the odds of Philipsen winning were higher than riding for himself. Shouldn’t you go for the biggest chance of winning with the team instead of going for the win for yourself?

Easy to take this position now. The defending champ in the world champion jersey shouldn’t be playing money ball with 4 dozen scenarios at the run in.

 

[Netserk]

Easy to take this position now. The defending champ in the world champion jersey shouldn’t be playing money ball with 4 dozen scenarios at the run in.

You are free to race only for yourself as an amateur, but being professional means that you ride to get paid. And he was in part paid to ensure the best chance for the team to win.

 

[Peyroteo94]

9.2 km of flat between the two climbs. It'd still be suicide even with a gap of 30" if you are on your own.

I don't think so. If Pogacar can get a gap of 30" in Cipressa, it is due to an insane pace of UAE. So I don't believe the peloton will have more than 20 riders (at least right after descending Cipressa).

 

[Peyroteo94]

You are free to race only for yourself as an amateur, but being professional means that you ride to get paid. And he was in part paid to ensure the best chance for the team to win.

Yeah, didn't see Contador working one time in his career (when he was a superstar).

 

[Eddy Evenepoel]

Remind me of Terpstra's group sprint victories.

Dauphine 2009 stage 3! Outsprinting well known fast men like Ludovic Turpin and Trofimov

 

[Berniece]

Yeah, didn't see Contador working one time in his career (when he was a superstar).

And you think that's a good thing? Are we now celebrating selfish riders that help their teammate win a monument when the chance of winning themselves is extremely low? It's not like WVA gifting Gent-Wevelgem, this was helping your teammate win when that was the best option for the team.

I get why you specifically don't want this though. The idea that riders like Pedersen, Matthews, Philipsen are back in the group with Pogacar after the descend of the Poggio means his odds of winning are quite low. But that doesn't mean MVDP should only focus on himself instead of his teammate. If it was Evenepoel-Merlier I would expect Evenepoel to do the same.

 

[Sciatic]

Yeah, didn't see Contador working one time in his career (when he was a superstar).

He worked to animate races which was for the good of cycling

 

[Brullnux]

Yeah, didn't see Contador working one time in his career (when he was a superstar).

Contoador also rarely rode races where a teammate was a co-leader or had a genuine chance of winning. Besides, stage races are very very different to one day races re how to structure leadership. Apples and oranges.

 

[YavorD]

Yeah, didn't see Contador working one time in his career (when he was a superstar).

I saw him gifting wins, didn't you?
Van Der Poel was "gifting" wins to his team-mate, Contador was gifting wins to opposite teams.

He should've quit cycling in 2011, I guess.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

I don't think so. If Pogacar can get a gap of 30" in Cipressa, it is due to an insane pace of UAE. So I don't believe the peloton will have more than 20 riders (at least right after descending Cipressa).

30 seconds on Cipressa is unrealistic though.

 

[Sciatic]

I don't think so. If Pogacar can get a gap of 30" in Cipressa, it is due to an insane pace of UAE. So I don't believe the peloton will have more than 20 riders (at least right after descending Cipressa).

I actually hope you're right 'cause that will be entertaining to watch. But I still think on a shallow climb with the entire peloton together going into it and loads of good rouleurs on sprinter teams willing to trash themselves to keep their leader in contention means it will still be a big strong chase group. Instead attacking and going clear from a reduced peloton on a climb after 150 km of hard racing in the mountains or terrain like LBL, trying to stay away after Cipressa is more akin to (no, I'm not saying it's the same as) someone attacking in the last 10 km and trying to stay away from the full peloton on a sprint stage.
But I will be very glad to be proved wrong and with Pog we never know.

 

[Peyroteo94]

30 seconds on Cipressa is unrealistic though.

I agree with you but the lack of cooperation can be big.

 

[Netserk]

Yeah, didn't see Contador working one time in his career (when he was a superstar).

He helped Sagan win the penultimate stage of Tirreno in 2015. He marked others behind Vino in Liège 2010. He rode for Armstrong on Ventoux. He has also been a helper at the Worlds, he closed one of the early splits in Firenze.

I don't think so. If Pogacar can get a gap of 30" in Cipressa, it is due to an insane pace of UAE. So I don't believe the peloton will have more than 20 riders (at least right after descending Cipressa).

It'd be due to the peloton still being a bigger group at that point.

 

[Peyroteo94]

He helped Sagan win the penultimate stage of Tirreno in 2015. He marked others behind Vino in Liège 2010. He rode for Armstrong on Ventoux. He has also been a helper at the Worlds, he closed one of the early splits in Firenze.

It'd be due to the peloton still being a bigger group at that point.

Don't remember this stage to be honest. He didn't mark anyone, he was just there in the group. It was a race between Vino (the chaser) and Kolobnev (rumours say he got paid to lose).
He didn't ride for Armstrong at all, they hated each other. Contador didn't attack because the Tour was over. He was mentally tired of that fight with Armstrong.
In Firenze, he helped like Roglic helped Pogacar in Zurich.
But my point is Contador never abdicated a big win for a teammate. In Giro 2015, kreuziger could wear the pink jersey and have a big gap in the GC and Contador didn't allow that.

 

[Samamba]

Rain should suit Pogacar better right?

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Rain should suit Pogacar better right?

Yes but it depends on temperature as well. Rain + cold weather is very good for Pogacar in attritional races but here it increases the risk of crashes in the finale.

 

[Berniece]

Rain should suit Pogacar better right?

Yes, but others perform well in the rain too. There are less contenders in total, but more than enough who still have a shot at the win.