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Milano - Sanremo 2025, one day monument, March 22

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Thanks for posting that, just watched that replay. A couple of things stood out. I didn't remember the chase group did so much d*cking around in the last 2 km--they could easily have caught Stuyven--but none were willing to commit (understandable to not want to drag someone else to the win but disappointing to watch nonetheless).

Also, for those suggesting Pidcock can win via attack on the descent, in that edition he went hard from the front during the bottom half of the descent around the sharpest corners. But couldn't create a gap to Van Aert on his wheel. Even less likely he could get away from MVDP that way.
On dry roads, not wet.
 
Rain, wind and cold.
If UAE doesn't nuke the Cipressa, nobody is going to drop Pedersen on the Poggio if he's in a decent position. And even if Poggy goes all out MVP will close down.

Either Pedersen wins a reduced sprint or late breakaway after the descent (my bet is on Pidcock or Stuyven).

On a sidenote: I get WVA wanting to go for bigger races but tbh this is the race that might suit him the best. A pitty he's not here.
 
Rain, wind and cold.
If UAE doesn't nuke the Cipressa, nobody is going to drop Pedersen on the Poggio if he's in a decent position. And even if Poggy goes all out MVP will close down.

Either Pedersen wins a reduced sprint
I don’t think Pedersen is nailed on to beat VdP and Pogacar in a sprint of a small group. He was insanely strong in Paris-Nice but it doesn’t necessarily means he’s still got an extremely strong sprint finish.
 
I don’t think Pedersen is nailed on to beat VdP and Pogacar in a sprint of a small group. He was insanely strong in Paris-Nice but it doesn’t necessarily means he’s still got an extremely strong sprint finish.

Actually Pedersen lost some important sprints to Pogacar recently (including last MSR and WC in 2023). Philipsen and Matthews are much faster nowadays.
 
Who was the last “clearly strongest rider” who didn't win?
Alaphilippe in 2020 has a much stronger case to be that rider than Sagan in 2017. Unlike Sagan he had a gap atop the Poggio, and also unlike Sagan he was always the underdog in the ensuing sprint.
Alaphilippe won the group sprint two years later, Kwiatkowski won Amstel in a group sprint two years before. Remind me of Terpstra's group sprint victories.
Are we counting full bunch sprints in Dutch NCs? :D

In all seriousness I agree it's not the perfect example.
 
Alaphilippe in 2020 has a much stronger case to be that rider than Sagan in 2017. Unlike Sagan he had a gap atop the Poggio, and also unlike Sagan he was always the underdog in the ensuing sprint.

Are we counting full bunch sprints in Dutch NCs? :D

In all seriousness I agree it's not the perfect example.
It still bugs me that Ala had chain problems on the descent which allowed van Aert to catch him. 2020 msr - the one that got away.
 
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Mar 18, 2025
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Pog and Pidcock to go off the front again (on Cipressa?) and work together until Pidcock loses Pog on the Poggio descent.
Not unlikely scenario, tbh. Pidcock is probably the only one who can hold Pog's wheel if UAE nuke the Poggio. However, Pogacar could catch him on the run-in. He's a much better time trialler and sprinter.
 
100% the best possible scenario.
Funny how we can see things differently.
I just hope to see a completely eclectic group storming towards the finish, Pog, Mathieu, Ganna, Pedersen, Pidcock, Bling..

I also love how in the Pog thread people seem obsessed with what exact team UAE show up with. It's funny to me because come on, they're not sending a "B-team". Politt and Wellens are top notch riders. The rest is filler. It's just bs trying to pre-emptively create an explanation why your favourite rider didn't win.

Of course Pog has a chance. He's just not even nearly the 100% clear favourite here. But that's got nothing to do with the riders supporting him. He's a phenomenon, a legendary rider, but he can't win everything. Deal with it.
 
Funny how we can see things differently.
I just hope to see a completely eclectic group storming towards the finish, Pog, Mathieu, Ganna, Pedersen, Pidcock, Bling..

I also love how in the Pog thread people seem obsessed with what exact team UAE show up with. It's funny to me because come on, they're not sending a "B-team". Politt and Wellens are top notch riders. The rest is filler. It's just bs trying to pre-emptively create an explanation why your favourite rider didn't win.

Of course Pog has a chance. He's just not even nearly the 100% clear favourite here. But that's got nothing to do with the riders supporting him. He's a phenomenon, a legendary rider, but he can't win everything. Deal with it.
I'm a huge Pidcock fan, so that's my want with my comment. I would also be really happy if Pedersen won. I also would have loved to see UAE take Del Toro, for no other reason than I'd like to see how Del Toro does riding that length of a race.
 
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Funny how we can see things differently.
I just hope to see a completely eclectic group storming towards the finish, Pog, Mathieu, Ganna, Pedersen, Pidcock, Bling..

I also love how in the Pog thread people seem obsessed with what exact team UAE show up with. It's funny to me because come on, they're not sending a "B-team". Politt and Wellens are top notch riders. The rest is filler. It's just bs trying to pre-emptively create an explanation why your favourite rider didn't win.

Of course Pog has a chance. He's just not even nearly the 100% clear favourite here. But that's got nothing to do with the riders supporting him. He's a phenomenon, a legendary rider, but he can't win everything. Deal with it.
That’s because @mou is going on about the lineup as though it’s a conspiracy against pogi. Mou farts, we chirp
 
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