Comon guys, it is Milano Sanremo. The earliest place to attack is the Poggio, and the last place to attack is the Poggio
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There's always the chance of a late attack on the flat, style Tchmil or Cancellara. I suppose Ganna is the most likely to try that.
Stating the most obvious scenario:
MvdP will go exactly here.
Why there? It's 900m to the top, on this section you have a bit more shelter for the wind, and there are the obvious water reservoirs that are a good marker to know where to attack and to know how far it is to the top. It's the necessary distance to create a gap of around 100 mtrs (or 10 seconds) by the time they have the sharp curve and the downhill: You need those 10 seconds or the move won't work.
WvA and Alaphilippe will try to react. I hope some other riders will stand up and show they have the legs to follow, but most if not all other riders will struggle. Even WvA will struggle (he did last year when Alaphilippe attacked). If the field behind is really shattered and he has a gap (even a small one) on WvA and Alaphilippe, MvdP could try to go solo and hold it.
If WvA sticks to the wheel and they both go down together, I give WvA a decent chance but only if he starts his sprint early enough and with enough speed. If they have a late tactical sprint <200mtrs from the line, he will be lost. Alaphilippe is the unknown. Will he be fresh and can he still accelerate like a coil spring as he did last year? Or did MvdP sap his legs and his morale?
MvdP will go exactly here.
Why there? It's 900m to the top, on this section you have a bit more shelter for the wind, and there are the obvious water reservoirs that are a good marker to know where to attack and to know how far it is to the top. It's the necessary distance to create a gap of around 100 mtrs (or 10 seconds) by the time they have the sharp curve and the downhill: You need those 10 seconds or the move won't work.
WvA and Alaphilippe will try to react. I hope some other riders will stand up and show they have the legs to follow, but most if not all other riders will struggle. Even WvA will struggle (he did last year when Alaphilippe attacked). If the field behind is really shattered and he has a gap (even a small one) on WvA and Alaphilippe, MvdP could try to go solo and hold it.
If WvA sticks to the wheel and they both go down together, I give WvA a decent chance but only if he starts his sprint early enough and with enough speed. If they have a late tactical sprint <200mtrs from the line, he will be lost. Alaphilippe is the unknown. Will he be fresh and can he still accelerate like a coil spring as he did last year? Or did MvdP sap his legs and his morale?
The obligatory "He is the favorite" game from all the favorites' is rather funny... dare I say almost pathetic.
Hm, well, but it's mostly true. The only ones who would have to state they are the favourites are van Aert and van der Poel and none of them can say that they are a much bigger favourite than the other one.
In the old days, they went a bit earlier (around 100 mtrs):
Around 8:06 in that clip, you see the spot I mention.
In 2020, Alaphilippe went exactly where I thought it should happen:
That rusty thing at the beginning of the clip is here:
I just hope MvdP reads this topic, so he doesn't have to do the homework. Just go there please. And not too much earlier, so I can have a ride myself
Movistar released their line up for MSR today. Obviously they don't have a favorite. I would think under the right scenario Cortina or Serrano could get a top 10 maybe a top 5. Unlikely anything more than that without total chaos.
View: https://twitter.com/Movistar_Team/status/1372446421056516100
View: https://twitter.com/Movistar_Team/status/1372446421056516100
In the old days, they went a bit earlier (around 100 mtrs):View: https://youtu.be/CfLnOqsFqrU?t=465
Around 8:06 in that clip, you see the spot I mention.
In 2020, Alaphilippe went exactly where I thought it should happen:
View: https://youtu.be/S3tVLPEwYiw?t=7
That rusty thing at the beginning of the clip is here:
I just hope MvdP reads this topic, so he doesn't have to do the homework. Just go there please. And not too much earlier, so I can have a ride myself
Fondriest was the moral winner of that race. No wonder he put his arms in the air after crossing the line 2nd.
I saw that gesture of Fondriest as: "what could I have done more". He really drilled it on the Poggio and knew that if he didn't drop Jalabert, 2nd place would he the highest achievable. Brave but frustrating.
Why? Jalabert even traded pulls with him in the run-in and then of course was a bit more icy on the final straight but come on... You can't just say that every person who in every race forces the initial attack is the moral winner.
I think Cortina is a good shout for a dark horse actually. He's got a sprint, can get over the Poggio and if it's a reduced bunch after 300km it's anyones guess who's going to win. It'd likely need to all go his way and end up in a group without any other big names, which is highly unlikely, but it'd be cool to see him win.
I thought he makes his come-back in Catalunya or Basque country, due to a lingering knee problem.
This is not such a great article on the front page: https://www.cyclingnews.com/features/10-riders-to-watch-at-milan-san-remo/
Apart from me wondering when the weeks this year were in which Alaphilippe was struggling to be competetive, Sagan, Gilbert, Nibali and Kwiatkowski, though great riders, wouldn't make my top 10. And about Matthews I'm not sure either.
Apart from me wondering when the weeks this year were in which Alaphilippe was struggling to be competetive, Sagan, Gilbert, Nibali and Kwiatkowski, though great riders, wouldn't make my top 10. And about Matthews I'm not sure either.
I'm pretty sure Matthews would be my fourth pick after the obvious three.
But yeah, what they write about Alaphilippe is absolutely ridiculous. "Oh, I see, no good stage placings in the Tour de La Provence or Omloop - apart from third on Mont Ventoux, granted - must have sucked." 70 km break on stage 1, puncture in the finale of stage 2, strongest man in the Omloop.
Let's make a privat bet. If he reaches fourth place at least I will insert pictures in your threads where you want them for a month. If he doesn't you will describe the stages in the threads I make for a month?
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