Milano - Sanremo: March 20, 2021

[topcat]

Matthews will show Mathieu his heels at the top of the Poggio!

Two Mathews are better than one.

 

[jaylew]

Hopefully some strong guys with little to lose and/or who have very little shot once it gets to the Poggio will just go for it on the Cipressa - guys like Nibali, Bardet, Pidcock, Higuita, Bettiol, Formolo, Wellens, etc...it would be nice for there to be some kind of drama before the Poggio

 

[Leinster]

Hopefully some strong guys with little to lose and/or who have very little shot once it gets to the Poggio will just go for it on the Cipressa - guys like Nibali, Bardet, Pidcock, Higuita, Bettiol, Formolo, Wellens, etc...it would be nice for there to be some kind of drama before the Poggio

Pidcock was with the big guns to the finish at Strade. No way he throws it away on the Cipressa.

Formolo has Gaviria, Trentin, Richeze and Kristoff in his team who all stand a better chance than he does. So it probably makes sense for him to attack from far and leave those other guys to surf wheels.

The Cipressa is too near the finish for Wellens.

 

[topcat]

Hopefully some strong guys with little to lose and/or who have very little shot once it gets to the Poggio will just go for it on the Cipressa - guys like Nibali, Bardet, Pidcock, Higuita, Bettiol, Formolo, Wellens, etc...it would be nice for there to be some kind of drama before the Poggio

The others can try a hail mary attack if they like. Nibali is one of the favourites.

 

[tobydawq]

The others can try a hail mary attack if they like. Nibali is one of the favourites.

To the second part: No.

 

[topcat]

To the second part: No.

We need a mediator.

 

[jaylew]

The others can try a hail mary attack if they like. Nibali is one of the favourites.

I don't think Nibali is a favorite. Not in 2021. He's got almost no chance if he waits until the Poggio, imo.

Pidcock was with the big guns to the finish at Strade. No way he throws it away on the Cipressa.

Yeah, but he's a neo-pro and has very little to lose and isn't likely to win head-to-head vs. the big 3.

 

[topcat]

An attack before the Poggio is doomed. Nibali, Sagan and PhilGil have almost no chance of winning although I'd love any one of them win.

 

[jaylew]

An attack before the Poggio is doomed. Nibali, Sagan and PhilGil have almost no chance of winning although I'd love to any one of them win.

If he has almost no chance of winning, he's not a favorite. In any case, I agree with you, I'd give those 3 combined a ~5% chance of winning.

An attack before the Poggio may be doomed, but waiting until the Poggio also dooms the chances for many.

 

[hayneplane]

The thing that would light up the race is if MVDP says stuff this I am bored of waiting and lights it up on the Cipressa. In that situation I think Wout has to jump on it as his team is not strong enough to chase moves whereas DQS could either designate Asgreen to cover the move or ride on the front to try and control the damage. Either way it makes more sense for Alaphillipe to wait until the Poggio.

 

[BlueRoads]

Sun and tailwinds to create super fast Milan-San Remo

30km/h east wind expected along the Ligurian coast

www.cyclingnews.com

I mean, I get there's not much more to say about this race which will be a very long, very boring event resulting in a very short cross duel, but these articles...

 

[hayneplane]

Sun and tailwinds to create super fast Milan-San Remo

30km/h east wind expected along the Ligurian coast

www.cyclingnews.com

I mean, I get there's not much more to say about this race which will be a very long, very boring event resulting in a very short cross duel, but these articles...

I thought the general theory on wind was tailwind is good for lone attackers and small groups as it costs less energy than riding into a headwind.

I don’t see how a fast race favours the sprinters at all.

 

[tomorrow]

The thing that would light up the race is if MVDP says stuff this I am bored of waiting and lights it up on the Cipressa. In that situation I think Wout has to jump on it as his team is not strong enough to chase moves whereas DQS could either designate Asgreen to cover the move or ride on the front to try and control the damage. Either way it makes more sense for Alaphillipe to wait until the Poggio.

well, 30km/h tailwind might encourage also other attackers on Cipressa

 

[TourOfSardinia]

 

[tobydawq]

Sun and tailwinds to create super fast Milan-San Remo

30km/h east wind expected along the Ligurian coast

www.cyclingnews.com

I mean, I get there's not much more to say about this race which will be a very long, very boring event resulting in a very short cross duel, but these articles...

Tailwind will help the sprinters, now? Oh, boy.

Maybe the author forgot that you are allowed to draft behind other riders during a bike race.

 

[red_flanders]

well, 30km/h tailwind might encourage also other attackers on Cipressa

Interesting, I would have thought just the opposite. The pace is always just too fast in between the two hills for an attack to stick, but especially with a tailwind.

 

[tobydawq]

Interesting, I would have thought just the opposite. The pace is always just too fast in between the two hills for an attack to stick, but especially with a tailwind.

Sorry, but that does not make sense.

1) A tailwind makes the pace go higher, yes, but that also decreases the time it takes to traverse the distance which in turn makes it more difficult to close a gap on a set distance.

2) One rider can keep the pace high much longer in a tailwind, so the advantage from being a lot of riders together to take turns is much smaller.

Edit: But that said, I still don't believe in a Cipressa attack.

 

[red_flanders]

Sorry, but that does not make sense.

1) A tailwind makes the pace go higher, yes, but that also decreases the time it takes to traverse the distance which in turn makes it more difficult to close a gap on a set distance.

2) One rider can keep the pace high much longer in a tailwind, so the advantage from being a lot of riders together to take turns is much smaller.

Edit: But that said, I still don't believe in a Cipressa attack.

That's generally the case of course, but between the Cipressa and the Poggio there isn't much distance or time, and everyone will be flying, including the bunch. Just not enough time to make an attack stick. Too much pace.

 

[tobydawq]

That's generally the case of course, but between the Cipressa and the Poggio there isn't much distance or time, and everyone will be flying, including the bunch. Just not enough time to make an attack stick. Too much pace.

Well, they're not going to attack on the flat part between the climbs...

 

[topcat]

Cipressa attack: Remco 2022. Then the rubber will hit the road.

 

[Netserk]

Well, they're not going to attack on the flat part between the climbs...

View: https://youtu.be/zoIDcR0UiN8?t=8376

Rewatching it, man that was bad racing by Sagan. No attack on Poggio, just following others. Closing all moves, launching the sprint 15''(!) from the line. To think that he nearly won ...

 

[tobydawq]

Eurosport is showing the 2019 race right now. I gotta say, Bonifazio is a madman. That Cipressa descent! Probably the craziest descent I have ever seen.

 

[johnymax]

Just a thought but I would really love to see a serious Cipressa attack again. The last time that happened was before I started watching this race and I would simply really like to see the dynamic of this race if there is a serious chance a late break could stay away. One of those things I would just really like to wittness once in my life

You'll witness an Oss attack on Cipressa. Didn't he attack recently there? Or was it on the flat in between the climbs? Probably the latter as I really can't imagine Oss attacking on a climb.

 

[roundabout]

2013 is an interesting race with 2 riders who are good roleurs, good classic riders and good in bad weather starting the Poggio with a 30 seconds lead and having something like 5 seconds left at the top, despite having a smaller field than usual chasing on the flat and what seemed like not a particularly aggressively raced Poggio

shows how difficult it is to make a break succeed from before the Poggio even in the circumstances that are more favorable than normal

 

[Orbit501]

I wonder how Pidcock and Simmons will go here?

I think the distance is a bit of an unknown for Pidcock isn't it?, aside from last year's Worlds. But not so much for Simmons, despite being really young, even by today's measure.