Milano - Sanremo: March 23rd, 2019

[Pantani_lives]

The attractiveness of this race lies in its unpredictability. Just the fact that the climbs aren't tough leaves a lot of potential winners, makes it very nervous and tactical. I was very disappointed with some editions of this decade, won by second-rate sprinters. However last year proves that it's still possible for an attack to be rewarded. I would hope that for once something important happens before the Poggio, but that seems unlikely.

 

[SafeBet]

Alejandro Valverde has raced MSR 6 times.
His results: 130, 54, 33, 24, 20, 15.

Top10 si almost a given this year. He might win it by the time he's 45.

 

[Alexandre B.]

I was very disappointed with some editions of this decade, won by second-rate sprinters.

Kristoff, Degenkolb, Démare? All capable of good/great performances in the Flemish classics?

 

[DJ Sprtsch]

Re:

I was very disappointed with some editions of this decade, won by second-rate sprinters.

Kristoff, Degenkolb, Démare? All capable of good/great performances in the Flemish classics?

Presume he means Goss, Gerrans, Ciolek.

 

[DJ Sprtsch]

Re:

Alejandro Valverde has raced MSR 6 times.
His results: 130, 54, 33, 24, 20, 15.

Top10 si almost a given this year. He might win it by the time he's 45.

Valverde would become the only third Spanish rider to win MSR.
Only Oscar Freire and Miguel Poblet have won, or been top three.

 

[King Of The Wolds]

This is always tough for MSR...

***** - Ewan, Alaphilippe, Sagan
**** -
*** - Kwiatkowski, Kristoff, Viviani
** - Gaviria, Trentin, Demare
* - Groenewegen, Valverde, Van Avermaet, Bennett, Cort, Colbrelli, Matthews, Degenkolb

Sky have confirmed - Kwiatkowski starts, Moscon doesn't.

 

[Red Rick]

Last year Quick Step was the only sprint train left in tje end. If Alaphilippe is good, I dont think the bunch will win

 

[King Boonen]

Re: Re:

In fairness, I don’t think anyone ever claimed they “knew all along” that Ciolek, or Goss, or Nibali would win. At best someone might have said “I knew the way Sagan/Cancellara was pulling that Kwiat/Gerrans would outsprint him at the finish.”

Let's allow me some "artistic licence" in my posting (some may call it hyperbole ).

It's one of those races where Captain Hindsight always knows the answer.

I would summarise it as MSR being a race where, say the 5 biggest favorites collectively aren't a big favorite vs the rest of the field, if at all.

It's the charm of the race really. Ofcourse having Pompeiana would be super interesting, but right now no other race has such a wide range of contenders.

That's it for me too. A race where sprinters compete with GT/stage race winners is crazy and the balance seems to be just about right. It always delivers.

 

[DFA123]

This is always tough for MSR...

***** - Ewan, Alaphilippe, Sagan
**** -
*** - Kwiatkowski, Kristoff, Viviani
** - Gaviria, Trentin, Demare
* - Groenewegen, Valverde, Van Avermaet, Bennett, Cort, Colbrelli, Matthews, Degenkolb

Sky have confirmed - Kwiatkowski starts, Moscon doesn't.

What do you think Alaphilippe has that gives him better chances than Kwiatkowski? I'd say they are pretty equal descending, Kwiat the better rouleur and sprinter, and climbing on sub 5% gradients probably not much in it. Or is just that Quickstep have various cards to play and so more tactical flexibility?

 

[Red Rick]

This is always tough for MSR...

***** - Ewan, Alaphilippe, Sagan
**** -
*** - Kwiatkowski, Kristoff, Viviani
** - Gaviria, Trentin, Demare
* - Groenewegen, Valverde, Van Avermaet, Bennett, Cort, Colbrelli, Matthews, Degenkolb

Sky have confirmed - Kwiatkowski starts, Moscon doesn't.

What do you think Alaphilippe has that gives him better chances than Kwiatkowski? I'd say they are pretty equal descending, Kwiat the better rouleur and sprinter, and climbing on sub 5% gradients probably not much in it. Or is just that Quickstep have various cards to play and so more tactical flexibility?

Alaphilippe is in much better form at this point in time.

 

[WheelofGear]

The balance between dropping Groenewegen without making it too hard for the other sprinters who are interesting in dropping him (Viviani, Ewan, Gav, Bennett) must be difficult.

He is more like Cavendish than Kittel in terms of his climbing without being as good as the four favorites for a Via Roma sprint.

 

[Red Rick]

Matthews is given the go to race.

This probably is reason enough for Dumoulin not to attack early on the Poggio, so now probably no big names will move earlier except for Nibali.

 

[DFA123]

This is always tough for MSR...

***** - Ewan, Alaphilippe, Sagan
**** -
*** - Kwiatkowski, Kristoff, Viviani
** - Gaviria, Trentin, Demare
* - Groenewegen, Valverde, Van Avermaet, Bennett, Cort, Colbrelli, Matthews, Degenkolb

Sky have confirmed - Kwiatkowski starts, Moscon doesn't.

What do you think Alaphilippe has that gives him better chances than Kwiatkowski? I'd say they are pretty equal descending, Kwiat the better rouleur and sprinter, and climbing on sub 5% gradients probably not much in it. Or is just that Quickstep have various cards to play and so more tactical flexibility?

Alaphilippe is in much better form at this point in time.

Is he? Slightly better form perhaps, but finishing 3rd in Paris Nice for Kwiat suggests he's not far off the top of his game either.

 

[Rollthedice]

I wonder what Gilbert will do.

 

[SafeBet]

Re:

I wonder what Gilbert will do.

I think he'll win.

 

[King Of The Wolds]

Re:

Last year Quick Step was the only sprint train left in tje end. If Alaphilippe is good, I dont think the bunch will win

Michelton had Trentin, who wasted his effort by attacking from the peloton to chase Nibali, instead of pulling the bunch for Ewan. Without that, Ewan would have won.

 

[Bardamu]

Re:

Matthews is given the go to race.

This probably is reason enough for Dumoulin not to attack early on the Poggio, so now probably no big names will move earlier except for Nibali.

Wouldn't be surprised if he'd be the guy to follow moves, just like Nibali did last year. Don't think Dumoulin will make the pace like in 2017.

 

[Bardamu]

Cort has said many times that this race is his main goal for this spring season. He looked very well in PN. You guys think he'll want to wait for a sprint or that he'll make a move?

 

[WheelofGear]

Re:

I wonder what Gilbert will do.

Another workhorse? They only got Declercq and Lampaert for that purpose.

Richeze is gonna launch Viviani if it comes down to a sprint.
And Stybar is gonna launch Alaphilippe on Poggio.

 

[Sestriere]

Re:

Cort has said many times that this race is his main goal for this spring season. He looked very well in PN. You guys think he'll want to wait for a sprint or that he'll make a move?

If he wants to win (or podium) he has to attack or follow an attack on the Poggio, which he is capable of. If he is satisfied with a Top 10 spot in his main goal for the spring he can wait for the sprint.

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

Last year Quick Step was the only sprint train left in tje end. If Alaphilippe is good, I dont think the bunch will win

Michelton had Trentin, who wasted his effort by attacking from the peloton to chase Nibali, instead of pulling the bunch for Ewan. Without that, Ewan would have won.

What a boring world that would be

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Cort has said many times that this race is his main goal for this spring season. He looked very well in PN. You guys think he'll want to wait for a sprint or that he'll make a move?

If he wants to win (or podium) he has to attack or follow an attack on the Poggio, which he is capable of. If he is satisfied with a Top 10 spot in his main goal for the spring he can wait for the sprint.

Do you think he is a good enough descender to make a Poggio attack work?

 

[Bardamu]

Didn't he close quite a gap in a descent in the stage he won in the Tour last year?

 

[DFA123]

Re:

Didn't he close quite a gap in the stage he won in the Tour last year?

Possibly, I don't remember it very well. Tbh, I've got no idea if he is a good descender or not - there's not too many races he challenges for where it's a big deal. But I think to make an attack stick on the Poggio, you probably have to be not far off the skills of the likes of Kwiat/Nibali/Alaphilippe/Sagan going downhill.

 

[Lequack]

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