Milano - Sanremo: March 23rd, 2019

[Rollthedice]

Re: Re:

What happens if Nibali win 2 MSR back to back?!

A hangover on sunday

Hangover on monday too

Hangover on Tuesday too.

 

[Broccolidwarf]

Re: Re:

What happens if Nibali win 2 MSR back to back?!

A hangover on sunday

Hangover on monday too

Hangover on Tuesday too.

You only get a hangover if you stop

 

[markene2]

Colbrelli to win it

 

[armchairclimber]

Marc Hirschi to win it

 

[Sestriere]

Some random predictions, cause why not:

1. Viviani won't finish Top 5 in the bunch sprint.
2. Groenewegen to get dropped on the Cipressa
3. Kristoff to finish ahead of Gaviria
4. Degenkolb to win the bunch sprint
5. Bunch sprint won't decide the winner
6. A meaningful attack occurs on Cipressa
7. Nibali to podium

 

[Koronin]

I would really like to see Gilbert get it this one. That would make it his 4th different monument.

 

[Keram]

Sagan summed this race up quite nicely

"Here you just start, you are going 100km, then you have the Turchino, where you have to be in the front, then after you come down to the coast, then you have another 100km to think just about riding, eating and drinking. The race starts in the last 50km. After 250km you start to be concentrated really in the race, what to do, how you feel – stuff like that"

No need to turn it on before 4pm CET because not will gonna happen. But yeah. I love that vibes on Cipressa, Poggio, Poggio descent and chaotic finish. It is beautifull that you riding 7 hours and everything is decided in last 15 minutes. And it is definitely lottery. But I like this race. Definitely way more enjoyable than casual sprint stage.

 

[jaylew]

Re:

I was very disappointed with some editions of this decade, won by second-rate sprinters.

Kristoff, Degenkolb, Démare? All capable of good/great performances in the Flemish classics?

I agree with him. Those years were disappointing.

 

[ooo]

Which tv-channels will be broadcasting MSR in Spain? Is it Eurosport only?

 

[Vroome.exe]

Re:

Mark Hirschi to win it

Marcel Hirscher will not win this one.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

I was very disappointed with some editions of this decade, won by second-rate sprinters.

Kristoff, Degenkolb, Démare? All capable of good/great performances in the Flemish classics?

I agree with him. Those years were disappointing.

Somewhat, but we are forgetting that in those years, Kristoff and Degenkolb were some of the best classics riders in the world. They haven't really been that ever since. As for Démare, I don't really wanna get into that whole car discussion.

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

I was very disappointed with some editions of this decade, won by second-rate sprinters.

Kristoff, Degenkolb, Démare? All capable of good/great performances in the Flemish classics?

I agree with him. Those years were disappointing.

Somewhat, but we are forgetting that in those years, Kristoff and Degenkolb were some of the best classics riders in the world. They haven't really been that ever since. As for Démare, I don't really wanna get into that whole car discussion.

I think with Démare we can actually ask the question: Which car discussion?

 

[Pantani_lives]

I was indeed talking about Gerrans, Goss and Ciolek.

Sagan has another chance to break the curse and win La Primavera. In the beginning of his career he seemed much more likely to win M-S than P-R. In eight consecutive participations he made the top 10 six times: 17-4-2-10-4-12-2-6. He was reported ill a few weeks ago and hasn't won anything yet this year, so he isn't the top favorite this time.

If it's a sprint Viviani seems the most likely winner to me, although I can imagine not everyone in his team is hoping for a sprint. Alaphilippe and Kwiatkowski probably have the best chances with an attack. For Nibali it will be hard to repeat his stunt, with the surprise element gone. It remains the most unpredictable classic, with more than twenty potential winners.

 

[DNP-Old]

Ewan
Viviani
Gaviria
Bennett

Is my prediction

 

[search]

in case anyone is interested in the star ratings from various newspapers today:

Gazzetta dello Sport
***** Alaphilippe, Viviani
**** Trentin, Ewan, Gaviria, Sagan
*** Valverde, KWiatkowski, Démare
** Nibali, GvA, Degenkolb, Gilbert, Cort
* Bettiol, Groenewegen, Colbrelli, Bennett, Dumoulin

Het Nieuwsblad
***** Alaphilippe
**** Ewan, Sagan
*** Viviani, Gaviria, Démare
** Cort, Gilbert, Trentin, Kwiatkowski
* Degenkolb, Naesen, van Avermaet, Bennett, Colbrelli

l'Équipe
***** Alaphilippe
**** Sagan, Kiwatkowski
*** Viviani, Gilbert
** Gaviria, Trentin, Valverde, van Avermaet, Nibali
* Ewan, Colbrelli, Bennett, Groenewegen, Degenkolb, Matthews, Démare

le Quotidien
***** Alaphilippe
**** Viviani, Bennett, Kwiatkowski, GvA, Groenewegen, Ewan, Gaviria, Sagan
*** Nibali, Stuyven, Degenkolb, Mohoric, Matthews, Kristoff, Démare
** Naesen, Cort, Gilbert, Gatto, Rowe, Valverde
* Bonifazio, Terpstra, Dumoulin, Langeveld, Modolo, Mezgec, Stybar, Laporte

there should be one in de Telegraaf as well, but I don't have access to that one

 

[Red Rick]

in case anyone is interested in the star ratings from various newspapers today:

Gazzetta dello Sport
***** Alaphilippe, Viviani
**** Trentin, Ewan, Gaviria, Sagan
*** Valverde, KWiatkowski, Démare
** Nibali, GvA, Degenkolb, Gilbert, Cort
* Bettiol, Groenewegen, Colbrelli, Bennett, Dumoulin

Het Nieuwsblad
***** Alaphilippe
**** Ewan, Sagan
*** Viviani, Gaviria, Démare
** Cort, Gilbert, Trentin, Kwiatkowski
* Degenkolb, Naesen, van Avermaet, Bennett, Colbrelli

l'Équipe
***** Alaphilippe
**** Sagan, Kiwatkowski
*** Viviani, Gilbert
** Gaviria, Trentin, Valverde, van Avermaet, Nibali
* Ewan, Colbrelli, Bennett, Groenewegen, Degenkolb, Matthews, Démare

le Quotidien
***** Alaphilippe
**** Viviani, Bennett, Kwiatkowski, GvA, Groenewegen, Ewan, Gaviria, Sagan
*** Nibali, Stuyven, Degenkolb, Mohoric, Matthews, Kristoff, Démare
** Naesen, Cort, Gilbert, Gatto, Rowe, Valverde
* Bonifazio, Terpstra, Dumoulin, Langeveld, Modolo, Mezgec, Stybar, Laporte

there should be one in de Telegraaf as well, but I don't have access to that one

De Telegraaf

***** Alaphilippe, Kwiatkowski
**** Sagan, Viviani, Gaviria, Bennett
*** Groenewegen, Ewan, Degenkolb, Gilbert
**Van Avermaet, Trentin, Colbrelli, Démare
* Van Aert, Stuyven, Cort Nielsen, Nibali, Stybar, Bettiol, Kristoff

 

[Valv.Piti]

Great that Kwito is on the startlist afterall.

 

[Rollthedice]

Reporter: "What would you change about Milano-Sanremo?"
Nibali: "The start. I would prefer it a little later in the day."

 

[tobydawq]

in case anyone is interested in the star ratings from various newspapers today:

Gazzetta dello Sport
***** Alaphilippe, Viviani
**** Trentin, Ewan, Gaviria, Sagan
*** Valverde, KWiatkowski, Démare
** Nibali, GvA, Degenkolb, Gilbert, Cort
* Bettiol, Groenewegen, Colbrelli, Bennett, Dumoulin

Het Nieuwsblad
***** Alaphilippe
**** Ewan, Sagan
*** Viviani, Gaviria, Démare
** Cort, Gilbert, Trentin, Kwiatkowski
* Degenkolb, Naesen, van Avermaet, Bennett, Colbrelli

l'Équipe
***** Alaphilippe
**** Sagan, Kiwatkowski
*** Viviani, Gilbert
** Gaviria, Trentin, Valverde, van Avermaet, Nibali
* Ewan, Colbrelli, Bennett, Groenewegen, Degenkolb, Matthews, Démare

le Quotidien
***** Alaphilippe
**** Viviani, Bennett, Kwiatkowski, GvA, Groenewegen, Ewan, Gaviria, Sagan
*** Nibali, Stuyven, Degenkolb, Mohoric, Matthews, Kristoff, Démare
** Naesen, Cort, Gilbert, Gatto, Rowe, Valverde
* Bonifazio, Terpstra, Dumoulin, Langeveld, Modolo, Mezgec, Stybar, Laporte

there should be one in de Telegraaf as well, but I don't have access to that one

De Telegraaf

***** Alaphilippe, Kwiatkowski
**** Sagan, Viviani, Gaviria, Bennett
*** Groenewegen, Ewan, Degenkolb, Gilbert
**Van Avermaet, Trentin, Colbrelli, Démare
* Van Aert, Stuyven, Cort Nielsen, Nibali, Stybar, Bettiol, Kristoff

How can everybody have Alaphilippe as the main favourite?? Yes, he has been good this season, but he won't win a sprint against any of the other contenders, except maybe Greg, Kwiatkowski and Valverde.

Also, how can Le Quotidien have Modolo, Mezgec and Gatto (?!?!) on their list but not Trentin?

 

[tobydawq]

57% of Novo Nordisk is in the break

 

[tobydawq]

Re:

I was indeed talking about Gerrans, Goss and Ciolek.

Sagan has another chance to break the curse and win La Primavera. In the beginning of his career he seemed much more likely to win M-S than P-R. In eight consecutive participations he made the top 10 six times: 17-4-2-10-4-12-2-6. He was reported ill a few weeks ago and hasn't won anything yet this year, so he isn't the top favorite this time.

If it's a sprint Viviani seems the most likely winner to me, although I can imagine not everyone in his team is hoping for a sprint. Alaphilippe and Kwiatkowski probably have the best chances with an attack. For Nibali it will be hard to repeat his stunt, with the surprise element gone. It remains the most unpredictable classic, with more than twenty potential winners.

Sagan has won a TDU stage.

 

[Gigs_98]

Man Alaphilippe is overrated, I really don't expect him to win, yet everyone sees him as a 5 star favorite many even as the only one

 

[Red Rick]

in case anyone is interested in the star ratings from various newspapers today:

Gazzetta dello Sport
***** Alaphilippe, Viviani
**** Trentin, Ewan, Gaviria, Sagan
*** Valverde, KWiatkowski, Démare
** Nibali, GvA, Degenkolb, Gilbert, Cort
* Bettiol, Groenewegen, Colbrelli, Bennett, Dumoulin

Het Nieuwsblad
***** Alaphilippe
**** Ewan, Sagan
*** Viviani, Gaviria, Démare
** Cort, Gilbert, Trentin, Kwiatkowski
* Degenkolb, Naesen, van Avermaet, Bennett, Colbrelli

l'Équipe
***** Alaphilippe
**** Sagan, Kiwatkowski
*** Viviani, Gilbert
** Gaviria, Trentin, Valverde, van Avermaet, Nibali
* Ewan, Colbrelli, Bennett, Groenewegen, Degenkolb, Matthews, Démare

le Quotidien
***** Alaphilippe
**** Viviani, Bennett, Kwiatkowski, GvA, Groenewegen, Ewan, Gaviria, Sagan
*** Nibali, Stuyven, Degenkolb, Mohoric, Matthews, Kristoff, Démare
** Naesen, Cort, Gilbert, Gatto, Rowe, Valverde
* Bonifazio, Terpstra, Dumoulin, Langeveld, Modolo, Mezgec, Stybar, Laporte

there should be one in de Telegraaf as well, but I don't have access to that one

De Telegraaf

***** Alaphilippe, Kwiatkowski
**** Sagan, Viviani, Gaviria, Bennett
*** Groenewegen, Ewan, Degenkolb, Gilbert
**Van Avermaet, Trentin, Colbrelli, Démare
* Van Aert, Stuyven, Cort Nielsen, Nibali, Stybar, Bettiol, Kristoff

How can everybody have Alaphilippe as the main favourite?? Yes, he has been good this season, but he won't win a sprint against any of the other contenders, except maybe Greg, Kwiatkowski and Valverde.

Also, how can Le Quotidien have Modolo, Mezgec and Gatto (?!?!) on their list but not Trentin?

Man Alaphilippe is overrated, I really don't expect him to win, yet everyone sees him as a 5 star favorite many even as the only one

Sanremo is that one race of the year where 5 star favorites probably still have less than 15% chance to win.

I don't know if you've noticed, but Alaphilippe was crushing sprints in Tirreno too, and there's very few people who will be near Alaphilippes wheel on the Poggio anyway. Alaphilippe in Poggio break also means no Quick Step chase, so an attack can be pretty likely to succeed as well.

There is no standout favorite in case of a bunch sprint either. Usually the fastest dudes are also the most likely to get dropped on the hills, so there's like 3 different levels of will they/won't they going on on the Poggio. Viviani finished dead last of the s.t. group last year. The typical favorite for MSR, Sagan, has been crap so far this season.

Sagan is the big question mark for me. He should fully commit to a Poggio move cause Bennet seems a better option in a sprint anyway.

 

[MrTea1976]

This race 10 years ago is what got me back into cycling. I'm 20kg and thousands of pounds (sterling!) lighter. Looking forward to watching this today!

 

[tobydawq]

in case anyone is interested in the star ratings from various newspapers today:

Gazzetta dello Sport
***** Alaphilippe, Viviani
**** Trentin, Ewan, Gaviria, Sagan
*** Valverde, KWiatkowski, Démare
** Nibali, GvA, Degenkolb, Gilbert, Cort
* Bettiol, Groenewegen, Colbrelli, Bennett, Dumoulin

Het Nieuwsblad
***** Alaphilippe
**** Ewan, Sagan
*** Viviani, Gaviria, Démare
** Cort, Gilbert, Trentin, Kwiatkowski
* Degenkolb, Naesen, van Avermaet, Bennett, Colbrelli

l'Équipe
***** Alaphilippe
**** Sagan, Kiwatkowski
*** Viviani, Gilbert
** Gaviria, Trentin, Valverde, van Avermaet, Nibali
* Ewan, Colbrelli, Bennett, Groenewegen, Degenkolb, Matthews, Démare

le Quotidien
***** Alaphilippe
**** Viviani, Bennett, Kwiatkowski, GvA, Groenewegen, Ewan, Gaviria, Sagan
*** Nibali, Stuyven, Degenkolb, Mohoric, Matthews, Kristoff, Démare
** Naesen, Cort, Gilbert, Gatto, Rowe, Valverde
* Bonifazio, Terpstra, Dumoulin, Langeveld, Modolo, Mezgec, Stybar, Laporte

there should be one in de Telegraaf as well, but I don't have access to that one

De Telegraaf

***** Alaphilippe, Kwiatkowski
**** Sagan, Viviani, Gaviria, Bennett
*** Groenewegen, Ewan, Degenkolb, Gilbert
**Van Avermaet, Trentin, Colbrelli, Démare
* Van Aert, Stuyven, Cort Nielsen, Nibali, Stybar, Bettiol, Kristoff

How can everybody have Alaphilippe as the main favourite?? Yes, he has been good this season, but he won't win a sprint against any of the other contenders, except maybe Greg, Kwiatkowski and Valverde.

Also, how can Le Quotidien have Modolo, Mezgec and Gatto (?!?!) on their list but not Trentin?

Man Alaphilippe is overrated, I really don't expect him to win, yet everyone sees him as a 5 star favorite many even as the only one

Sanremo is that one race of the year where 5 star favorites probably still have less than 15% chance to win.

I don't know if you've noticed, but Alaphilippe was crushing sprints in Tirreno too, and there's very few people who will be near Alaphilippes wheel on the Poggio anyway. Alaphilippe in Poggio break also means no Quick Step chase, so an attack can be pretty likely to succeed as well.

But will he beat Sagan in the (flat) sprint? I doubt it very much.

Also, he has sprinted quite well, it's true, but I remember him being absolutely trounced by a comparatively very mediocre sprinter, Juan Molano in Colombia.

I think Sagan, Ewan and Bennett are bigger favourites than Alaphilippe.