Milano - Sanremo: March 23rd, 2019

[johnymax]

A group of Dumoulin, Sagan, Stybar, Gilbert, Bettiol, Mohorič and Naesen will get away on the Poggio. Who wins, I have no idea

 

[drc]

Re:

Either Viviani (from a bunch sprint) or GVA (solo).

 

[Red Rick]

Dumoulin is really pessimistic about his chances for Sanremo.

Seems like a lived under a rock while racing it last time

 

[Anderis]

Re:

A group of Dumoulin, Sagan, Stybar, Gilbert, Bettiol, Mohorič and Naesen will get away on the Poggio. Who wins, I have no idea

If Bettiol and Naesen are in the same group, either Naesen wins or the group doesn't stay away.

 

[Velolover2]

Re: Re:

Big Tom is in the race. I'd like to see him try something on Cipressa but I think he is going to work for Matthews.

Has there ever been a winning move on Cipressa before?

He could go with Gilbert. They would make an awesome duo to go long!

They'd need at least two more similar couples to hold on.

Add Terpstra, De Marchi, Naesen, Küng, Rowe and Oss. Then you have a brutal team of roleurs.

 

[Red Rick]

The problem is that for riders who ideally would attack on the Cipressa, they always have teammates with better chances staying behind or they straight up get teammates of sprinters/favorites to sit on the wheel.

 

[Laplaz]

Honestly I don't know what to expect, and that's great. No Colbrelli and Nibali weather unfortunately so I'll go with Ewan.

 

[Red Rick]

How is the wind expected to be?

 

[gregrowlerson]

Re:

How is the wind expected to be?

As rather a classics novice, it's incredible to me how a course that appears so non-selective can produce such interesting racing, more or less based on endurance. I wonder what sort of racing an even flatter course would produce that had a length of closer to 400 kms?

By the way, I like your updated signature re complaining about route design :lol:

 

[Oliver]

With Bardet here I hope Naesen doesn't need to stay with him like usual :lol:

Naesen would be great!

But I except Viviani, Bennett and Ewan.

 

[King Boonen]

Re: Re:

I predict the winner will be someone that nobody thought had a real chance of winning, yet after the race loads of people will claim that it was obvious that rider would win...

The winners list of the last ten years is full of those

That's why it's a pretty safe call

 

[King Boonen]

Re: Re:

I predict the winner will be someone that nobody thought had a real chance of winning, yet after the race loads of people will claim that it was obvious that rider would win...

Red hot take right here

Same take every year from me. I predict that either this year, or one soon, the favourite list will include at least two riders from every team and then a load of others, just so someone can claim they knew all along.

My prediction, someone from the peloton will win.

 

[search]

Re: Re:

I predict the winner will be someone that nobody thought had a real chance of winning, yet after the race loads of people will claim that it was obvious that rider would win...

The winners list of the last ten years is full of those

That's why it's a pretty safe call

yeah, just going by the betting odds, there haven't been many riders under 50-1 winning the race over the past years

 

[King Boonen]

Re: Re:

I predict the winner will be someone that nobody thought had a real chance of winning, yet after the race loads of people will claim that it was obvious that rider would win...

The winners list of the last ten years is full of those

That's why it's a pretty safe call

yeah, just going by the betting odds, there haven't been many riders under 50-1 winning the race over the past years

I don't really keep up with the odds. I just know that every year people complain saying it's the most boring monument, it's a sprinters race etc. We then get a really exciting race with a winner no-one thought would take it, even if a favourite is in the finishing bunch, and everyone claims that they knew all along that rider would win.

The unpredictability of a supposedly predictable race is one of the reasons I love it. I think the main problem is people massively underestimate what 300km does to the legs.

 

[Jagartrott]

In an interview, Roelandts says a Lotto team mate told him after the 2016 edition (Roelandts ended 3rd) that he had seen Démare hanging on to a car. I've never heard this story from him, but this again strongly hints that Démare stole the win that day.

 

[King Boonen]

Re:

In an interview, Roelandts says a Lotto team mate told him after the 2016 edition (Roelandts ended 3rd) that he had seen Démare hanging on to a car. I've never heard this story from him, but this again strongly hints that Démare stole the win that day.

You can go back to the relevant threads and articles, I can't believe you didn't hear about this unless you didn't watch the race or follow the coverage afterwards? It's pretty much all anyone was talking about from what I remember, there was even an investigation I think.

 

[search]

Re: Re:

I predict the winner will be someone that nobody thought had a real chance of winning, yet after the race loads of people will claim that it was obvious that rider would win...

The winners list of the last ten years is full of those

That's why it's a pretty safe call

yeah, just going by the betting odds, there haven't been many riders under 50-1 winning the race over the past years

I don't really keep up with the odds. I just know that every year people complain saying it's the most boring monument, it's a sprinters race etc. We then get a really exciting race with a winner no-one thought would take it, even if a favourite is in the finishing bunch, and everyone claims that they knew all along that rider would win.

The unpredictability of a supposedly predictable race is one of the reasons I love it. I think the main problem is people massively underestimate what 300km does to the legs.

yeah, I like it too. Surely there are better, or more spectatcular races out there, but (for me, personally) there's none with the tension building up in the way it does during Milano Sanremo

 

[Tim Booth]

Re: Re:

You could divide the favourites into three groups:

*Uphill punchers:
Nibali, Alaphilippe, Kwiatkowski, Moscon, Bardet...

Don't think that Kwiatkowski will be there.

Possibly, I haven't seen a start list from Team Sky yet.

seems Kwiatkowski will be there

 

[DFA123]

Re:

With Bardet here I hope Naesen doesn't need to stay with him like usual :lol:

Naesen would be great!

But I except Viviani, Bennett and Ewan.

I think Bardet is a bit of a dark horse in a race like this. The one thing that all the guys who have held off the peloton in the last few years have in common, is that they are amazing descenders. Probably all in the top 10% in the WT.

It's that ability to hold or even extend the gap on the entire descent of the Poggio which makes the peloton start to panic and second guess as they wonder whether their sprinters are close enough to the front to continue full throttle.

He's proven many times he can handle the distance; he can get a gap on the climb and hold it on the descent; and he's a reasonable sprinter from a small group of non-specialists.

 

[Pantani_lives]

Re: Re:

You could divide the favourites into three groups:

*Uphill punchers:
Nibali, Alaphilippe, Kwiatkowski, Moscon, Bardet...

Don't think that Kwiatkowski will be there.

Possibly, I haven't seen a start list from Team Sky yet.

seems Kwiatkowski will be there

Sources contradict each other two days before the race, but cyclingfever has a start list with Kwiatkowski and without Moscon.

 

[Leinster]

Re: Re:

I predict the winner will be someone that nobody thought had a real chance of winning, yet after the race loads of people will claim that it was obvious that rider would win...

The winners list of the last ten years is full of those

That's why it's a pretty safe call

yeah, just going by the betting odds, there haven't been many riders under 50-1 winning the race over the past years

I don't really keep up with the odds. I just know that every year people complain saying it's the most boring monument, it's a sprinters race etc. We then get a really exciting race with a winner no-one thought would take it, even if a favourite is in the finishing bunch, and everyone claims that they knew all along that rider would win.

The unpredictability of a supposedly predictable race is one of the reasons I love it. I think the main problem is people massively underestimate what 300km does to the legs.

In fairness, I don’t think anyone ever claimed they “knew all along” that Ciolek, or Goss, or Nibali would win. At best someone might have said “I knew the way Sagan/Cancellara was pulling that Kwiat/Gerrans would outsprint him at the finish.”

 

[King Boonen]

Re: Re:

In fairness, I don’t think anyone ever claimed they “knew all along” that Ciolek, or Goss, or Nibali would win. At best someone might have said “I knew the way Sagan/Cancellara was pulling that Kwiat/Gerrans would outsprint him at the finish.”

Let's allow me some "artistic licence" in my posting (some may call it hyperbole ).

It's one of those races where Captain Hindsight always knows the answer.

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

In fairness, I don’t think anyone ever claimed they “knew all along” that Ciolek, or Goss, or Nibali would win. At best someone might have said “I knew the way Sagan/Cancellara was pulling that Kwiat/Gerrans would outsprint him at the finish.”

Let's allow me some "artistic licence" in my posting (some may call it hyperbole ).

It's one of those races where Captain Hindsight always knows the answer.

I would summarise it as MSR being a race where, say the 5 biggest favorites collectively aren't a big favorite vs the rest of the field, if at all.

It's the charm of the race really. Ofcourse having Pompeiana would be super interesting, but right now no other race has such a wide range of contenders.

 

[Leinster]

By way of illustrating that point, the last repeat winner was Freire in 2010, and it’s not like all the different winners since have been pack fodder; they all have at least a GT stage win or a semi-classic or 3 on their palmares, and most of them have another monument, or a Worlds, or even a handful of Grand Tour GC wins.

 

[Jagartrott]

Re: Re:

In an interview, Roelandts says a Lotto team mate told him after the 2016 edition (Roelandts ended 3rd) that he had seen Démare hanging on to a car. I've never heard this story from him, but this again strongly hints that Démare stole the win that day.

You can go back to the relevant threads and articles, I can't believe you didn't hear about this unless you didn't watch the race or follow the coverage afterwards? It's pretty much all anyone was talking about from what I remember, there was even an investigation I think.

'I never heard that story from him' - i.e. Roelandts.