Most believable Tour in years?

[Zam_Olyas]

Yea, Laflo how would you know? as mr.nice guy basso only intended to dope.

 

[red_flanders]

...

A common view here seems to be that Nibs is one of the most suspicious riders ever to record completely believable and possible times up climbs.

It is certain that doped rides in the past have fallen short of the "unbelievable" threshold. It is certain that some will continue to do so. It is possible that Nibali, whom many regard as a couple steps under a top level Contador, would ride exactly like this on a full program.

It is speculation however, and opinion. I don't think it's unreasonable but I'm also willing to allow it's possible, however unlikely, that he's found this form clean.

 

[Big Doopie]

" Those who know him and his parents well say that his father, Salvatore, waved him off into the pro peloton with a message along these lines: “Enzo [how he’s known at home], I’m happy that you’re going to be a cyclist because it was your dream. You might win or lose, but the only thing you must never do is cheat. Because, if you do, you can forget about ever coming back to Sicily.”

cool story, bro.

rotflmao.

 

[Franklin]

It is possible that Nibali, whom many regard as a couple steps under a top level Contador

I'm 100% sure mr AC would disagree with that one. Nibali won two GT's already and is underway to complete the triple crown. I'm amazed how people here tend to rank him as far behind Froome/AC.

And yeah, odds of Nibbles (and anyone else in the top 10)being a doper is ofc immense. Betting against that is foolish if we consider the past.

That said: I do have some issues with "Alien performances" when we have no clue what a clean performance actually looks like. Ofcourse we could go with the "Greg Lemond" standard, but that would involve us believeing Greg is the greatest cyclist evah and that his training methods/material are the pinnacle of cycling.

There's no good way to put down a baseline.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

A common view here seems to be that Nibs is one of the most suspicious riders ever to record completely believable and possible times up climbs.

Ricco and countless other hardcore dopers recorded possible performances throughout their careers.

Also, Nibali is not built like a climber - an aspect that is curiously absent in most discussions re: "possible" performances. You'd expect him to go slower on long(er) climbs above a certain percentage than guys like Pinot.

 

[roundabout]

Ricco and countless other hardcore dopers recorded possible performances throughout their careers.

Also, Nibali is not built like a climber - an aspect that is curiously absent in most discussions re: "possible" performances. You'd expect him to go slower on long(er) climbs above a certain percentage than guys like Pinot.

Hmm, I would say that he is about the same build as Pinot actually.

But that's just my opinion based on nothing more than what I see with my eyes.

 

[sniper]

Very believable

that sounds quite strong.
three questions i'd be interested to hear your (and red flanders', and others' who are inclined to find this tour more believable) thoughts on:
1. what percentage of the entire peloton do you think is clean?
2. what percentage of the top 10 do you think is clean?

Nibali looks like he is breathing through his nose but the rest look normal, as do their numbers

3. why would the rest have stopped doping?
(not that you literally said that, but you do say "very believable". so believable enough for you to consider they might be clean, i suppose?)
the uci and antidoping is as messy as ever.

 

[Parker]

Also, Nibali is not built like a climber - an aspect that is curiously absent in most discussions re: "possible" performances. You'd expect him to go slower on long(er) climbs above a certain percentage than guys like Pinot.

According to Google (not exact, but unlikely to be far off)

Vincenzo Nibali: 1.79m 61kg
Thibault Pinot: 1.80m 63kg

Almost the same.

 

[kingjr]

that sounds quite strong.
three questions i'd be interested to hear your (and red flanders', and others' who are inclined to find this tour more believable) thoughts on:
1. what percentage of the entire peloton do you think is clean?
2. what percentage of the top 10 do you think is clean?

3. why would the rest have stopped doping?

1.) Between 80-85 %
2.) About 70%
3.) No easy to access superdrug around that basically requires you to charge to even ride the tour.

 

[red_flanders]

I'm 100% sure mr AC would disagree with that one. Nibali won two GT's already and is underway to complete the triple crown. I'm amazed how people here tend to rank him as far behind Froome/AC.

And yeah, odds of Nibbles (and anyone else in the top 10)being a doper is ofc immense. Betting against that is foolish if we consider the past.

That said: I do have some issues with "Alien performances" when we have no clue what a clean performance actually looks like. Ofcourse we could go with the "Greg Lemond" standard, but that would involve us believeing Greg is the greatest cyclist evah and that his training methods/material are the pinnacle of cycling.

There's no good way to put down a baseline.

I just haven't seen the same level of performance from Nibali, consistently. He's not beaten any of the really "top" guys, and until he does it will be a question. I would have had a hard time picking who would have won when the difference was Nibali up by almost 3 minutes.

Would many have bet on him to beat Contador or Froome before this race started?

I"m not saying he can't be at that level, and for me he's much closer after his performances in this race–and there's more to see, so I will continue to modify my opinion. But until he does it, for me he's not at that level.

 

[LaFlorecita]

How would you know that?

Yea, Laflo how would you know? as mr.nice guy basso only intended to dope.

...

yes zam, do you think I forgot?

 

[LaFlorecita]

I'm 100% sure mr AC would disagree with that one. Nibali won two GT's already and is underway to complete the triple crown. I'm amazed how people here tend to rank him as far behind Froome/AC.

And yeah, odds of Nibbles (and anyone else in the top 10)being a doper is ofc immense. Betting against that is foolish if we consider the past.

That said: I do have some issues with "Alien performances" when we have no clue what a clean performance actually looks like. Ofcourse we could go with the "Greg Lemond" standard, but that would involve us believeing Greg is the greatest cyclist evah and that his training methods/material are the pinnacle of cycling.

There's no good way to put down a baseline.

My impression is that Mr AC believes he can beat a top level Nibali... so Nibali is a couple steps below him

Couple steps =/= far behind

 

[pmcg76]

I'm 100% sure mr AC would disagree with that one. Nibali won two GT's already and is underway to complete the triple crown. I'm amazed how people here tend to rank him as far behind Froome/AC.

And yeah, odds of Nibbles (and anyone else in the top 10)being a doper is ofc immense. Betting against that is foolish if we consider the past.

That said: I do have some issues with "Alien performances" when we have no clue what a clean performance actually looks like. Ofcourse we could go with the "Greg Lemond" standard, but that would involve us believeing Greg is the greatest cyclist evah and that his training methods/material are the pinnacle of cycling.

There's no good way to put down a baseline.

Yes people talk about alien performances and somehow forget that LeMond and Hinault smashed the entire Tour field by 5 minutes on the Alpe d'Huez stage of the 86 Tour. No wonder they could afford to cruise up the Alpe as they had been out front for the previous two Cols. Imagine that performance happening in modern times Would be BA(Beyond Alien).

That same Tour, the 4th place rider on GC, Andy Hampsten was 18 minutes down. That wouldn't even get you Top 10 in more recent Tours. I have no problem with people believing LeMond was clean but a bit of consistency wouldn't go amiss around here.

 

[maxmartin]

Yes people talk about alien performances and somehow forget that LeMond and Hinault smashed the entire Tour field by 5 minutes on the Alpe d'Huez stage of the 86 Tour. No wonder they could afford to cruise up the Alpe as they had been out front for the previous two Cols. Imagine that performance happening in modern times Would be BA(Beyond Alien).

That same Tour, the 4th place rider on GC, Andy Hampsten was 18 minutes down. That wouldn't even get you Top 10 in more recent Tours. I have no problem with people believing LeMond was clean but a bit of consistency wouldn't go amiss around here.

like I said without those two established dopers being around, we just couldn't accurately assess Nibali's performance. Suspicious maybe, alien performance far away from it.

 

[sniper]

1.) Between 80-85 %
2.) About 70%
3.) No easy to access superdrug around that basically requires you to charge to even ride the tour.

ok, all that based on what evidence? indications?

and what does "clean" mean to you? that they aren't doping during the tour?
you think that 70% of the top 10 prepared for the tdf without doping?

we've had a couple of positives before the tour, and we know the testing sucks. how can you deduce from that that 70% of the top 10 is clean?

jonathan and david will be happy to see their message is coming across.

 

[Netserk]

Yes people talk about alien performances and somehow forget that LeMond and Hinault smashed the entire Tour field by 5 minutes on the Alpe d'Huez stage of the 86 Tour. No wonder they could afford to cruise up the Alpe as they had been out front for the previous two Cols. Imagine that performance happening in modern times Would be BA(Beyond Alien).

That same Tour, the 4th place rider on GC, Andy Hampsten was 18 minutes down. That wouldn't even get you Top 10 in more recent Tours. I have no problem with people believing LeMond was clean but a bit of consistency wouldn't go amiss around here.

Man that is a stupid argument. Yeah relative to the others Hinault and Lemond were extremely strong. However an alien performance is not winning with a big margin, it's (winning) with a big power. There's a difference. If you can point out where Lemond did 40' with 6.0W/kg or more please point that out to me.

 

[kingjr]

ok, all that based on what evidence? indications?

and what does "clean" mean to you?

I currently see no indication that suggests otherwise.

And when I say someone is clean, I mean he's currently not a doper.
A current doper is someone who dopes during this Tour to increase his performance, or did so in his preparation for this Tour, or for this season as a whole.

you think that 70% of the top 10 prepared for the tdf without doping?

Yes.

we've had a couple of positives before the tour, and we know the testing sucks. how can you deduce from that that 70% of the top 10 is clean?

How can you deduce they're not?

jonathan and david will be happy to see their message is coming across.

These two mean nothing to me and neither do their messages.

 

[SeriousSam]

Nibali is completely unchallenged and the rest doesn't seem capable of producing performances we have come to regard as extremely unlikely if not impossible without oxygen vector doping. Other than that, there is no reason to believe they are cleaner than usual.

In other words, most of them are probably doping, even if not to the gills with stuff like EPO.

 

[pmcg76]

Man that is a stupid argument. Yeah relative to the others Hinault and Lemond were extremely strong. However an alien performance is not winning with a big margin, it's (winning) with a big power. There's a difference. If you can point out where Lemond did 40' with 6.0W/kg or more please point that out to me.

Well I hate it break it to you but most people are whining about Nibali being dominant without even seeing or knowing the power figures. It is happening during the actual stages so how would they know what the figures are as Nibali attacks? Has Nibali put in any performances that fall into Vayers 'mutant' category yet?



Also can you point out how often the top riders arrive alone or attack before the final climb these days. If any current rider attacked like Hinault/LeMond did in 86 from 2 cols out and won by 5 minutes, I don't think there would be a single person who would believe it regardless of their power output on the final climb.

Just as an example, people on here were all laughing at Contador during that long attack in T-A.

 

[victorschipolrijk]

I currently see no indication that suggests otherwise.

And when I say someone is clean, I mean he's currently not a doper.
A current doper is someone who dopes during this Tour to increase his performance, or did so in his preparation for this Tour, or for this season as a whole.


Yes.
How can you deduce they're not?

These two mean nothing to me and neither do their messages.

LOL LOL, you really funny junior.

Since you think 70% of the top 10 are clean, would you mind pointing out to me who the 3 dirty ones are?

 

[AICA ribonucleotide]

LOL LOL, you really funny junior.

Since you think 70% of the top 10 are clean, would you mind pointing out to me who the 3 dirty ones are?

The only one of them I'd even hazard thinking is clean is Pinot.

 

[kingjr]

LOL LOL, you really funny junior.

Since you think 70% of the top 10 are clean, would you mind pointing out to me who the 3 dirty ones are?

I said I believe 70 % to be clean, not 30 % to be dirty.

I believe Bardet, Pinot, Van Garderen, Péraud, Mollema and Ten Dam are clean.

I'd like to think both Valverde and Nibali are clean too but I'm probably wrong
about 1 of the 2. I also have doubts over König and Rolland.

 

[roundabout]

Valverde should move to a French team

 

[Netserk]

Also can you point out how often the top riders arrive alone or attack before the final climb these days. If any current rider attacked like Hinault/LeMond did in 86 from 2 cols out and won by 5 minutes, I don't think there would be a single person who would believe it regardless of their power output on the final climb.

Just as an example, people on here were all laughing at Contador during that long attack in T-A.

Because if they did the effort Hinault did back then they wouldn't get away

 

[difdauf]

Well I hate it break it to you but most people are whining about Nibali being dominant without even seeing or knowing the power figures. It is happening during the actual stages so how would they know what the figures are as Nibali attacks? Has Nibali put in any performances that fall into Vayers 'mutant' category yet?



Also can you point out how often the top riders arrive alone or attack before the final climb these days. If any current rider attacked like Hinault/LeMond did in 86 from 2 cols out and won by 5 minutes, I don't think there would be a single person who would believe it regardless of their power output on the final climb.

Just as an example, people on here were all laughing at Contador during that long attack in T-A.

Because all guys were far weaker.
Lemond was totally powerless some years later against the 90's generation Chiapucci and friends...

The fall of Lemond is probably the best way to spot the beginning of EPO's era.

Ok he was said to be sick and have been hurted. But he went from 7th of the tour in 91 to 2nd of tour d'armorique as best result in 92. He was 31 years old.
If Lemond had same doctor than Horner he would have kicked Armstrong's *** in 99.