Most believable Tour in years?

[Dear Wiggo]

Whilst at face value I find the Tour to be believable, what is grabbing my attention is the comparative plummet in ability of riders like

Voekler
Porte
Van den Broeck

to name a few my sleep-deprived brain can recall from years past.

In fact, this Tour is so believable, I reckon Cadel could podium.

 

[Tinman]

Nibali is just as bad as Froome last year and Contador pre ban. Dominant and always in control. Can go faster when he wants in all terrains. Alien.

Blood and EPO doping imo. Similar model as all the other intra season donkey to racehorse dopers in the past: Armstrong, Basso, Schleck etc.

But below him things looks better and the players have provided one of the better tours in years. Of course helped by an excellent parcours which offers opportunities for racing on many stages.

Take out Nibali and this tour would have been a 9 out of 10 form me.

It would have enormous benefits to the sport if Nibali tested positive shortly after the tour.

This for me mostly. 3 types of riders:
- more recently refined style EPO and bags - Horner, Nibali
- extreme weight programs, likely EPO but also some weight loss drugs and/or OOC steroid programs for faster recov - Wiggo, Froome, Berti
- 3rd "cleanish" group

 

[Athame]

If Lemond had same doctor than Horner he would have kicked Armstrong's *** in 99.

This must most certainly make the top group thus far...

 

[DirtyWorks]

If any current rider attacked like Hinault/LeMond did in 86 from 2 cols out and won by 5 minutes, I don't think there would be a single person who would believe it regardless of their power output on the final climb.

You can't go down this path. Race radio, shorter race, race's format/structure has changed, and more.

 

[DirtyWorks]

This for me mostly. 3 types of riders:
- more recently refined style EPO and bags - Horner, Nibali
- extreme weight programs, likely EPO but also some weight loss drugs and/or OOC steroid programs for faster recov - Wiggo, Froome, Berti
- 3rd "cleanish" group

Where does the Testosterone/HGH fit? It will make a huge difference over three weeks and not even come close to testing suspicious, much less positive.

 

[Athame]

In fact, this Tour is so believable, I reckon Cadel could podium.

__________________ I will use this in explanation of such an italicized 'so'.

 

[Dear Wiggo]

__________________ i will use this in explanation of such an italicized 'so'.

_ _ _ ___ ___ ___ _ _ _

 

[Athame]

_ _ _ ___ ___ ___ _ _ _

if you choose not to pick it up it's your loss not mine.

 

[meat puppet]

Veloclinic's take on stages 10, 13, 14

http://veloclinic.tumblr.com/post/92408525918/2014-tour-de-france-stage-13-and-14-brief-analysis

Interestingly it is stage 14 that puts two bars up for every rider looked at (plus peraud ofc).

 

[Archibald]

Peraud gave me hope on the road to Risoul - following Nibali, he looked like he was seriously in the red. Meanwhile, Mr Tranquillo was barely looking like he was making an effort and didn't even look like he was breathing hard. Sametime, Maijka looked smashed...
I have serious doubts about Nibali - he's smashing the field and barely breaking a sweat... constantly. Surely the others aren't that bad.
The rest appear to be far more believable that they're "normal"

Someone mentioned Nibali getting popped would be a good thing for this Tour. Reckon that might be right. But preferrably sooner rather than afterwards, so he's not stealing the enjoyment of being on the podium for someone.

 

[karlboss]

Veloclinic's take on stages 10, 13, 14

http://veloclinic.tumblr.com/post/92408525918/2014-tour-de-france-stage-13-and-14-brief-analysis

Interestingly it is stage 14 that puts two bars up for every rider looked at (plus peraud ofc).

So everyone juiced the night of stage 13 in preparation for stage 14?

 

[Carstenbf]

This judging a performance's validity by facial expression is starting to annoy me.

Nibs this year, last year it was Horner and Richie's "smiling". Noone seemed to notice him smiling when he crossed the line 9 mins down on the winner the other day.

Call 'em out as dopers to your hearts content, but if your argument is primarily based on the above, I'm gonna call BS, sorry.

 

[djpbaltimore]

Well with the way Saxo riders are performing now, I think we would have seen a US Postal style performance from them in the mountains had Contador not crashed out.

I agree. It is interesting that one unfortunate withdrawal made a disproportionate effect on the perception of the race. With Contador still in it, I believe a TS train with Roche, Rogers, and Majka tears apart the field. It wouldn't surprise me if Majka and Contador would've dropped everybody but Nibali, looking like 2013 A3D and Sky all over again. With JRod not in shape, Nairo not present, and JVDB and TJVG recovering from crashes, the Contador and Froome losses are even more pronounced.

Froome and Contador away and Nibali not having to go full gas mean the numbers are down. Also the extremely hard first part of the race (route and weather) puts a damper on things. I'd say things a more uneven now with Astana, Sky and Tinkoff (movistar disappoints me so far) absolutely full ***. If Contador and Froome was here and they went full gas, we would probably see the strongest performances since the passport.

The battle between the heavyweights might not have broken records if they were too equal and it was a lot of start/ stop racing like at the Dauphine. However, I was looking forward to seeing the times for a flying Contador needing to make up time on Nibali, because that would require 100% effort. Overall, I think this edition is closer to 2013 than 2011 or 2008, but the bad luck makes it seem cleaner.

 

[DirtyWorks]

So everyone juiced the night of stage 13 in preparation for stage 14?

You are assuming whatever PED's are on have some kind of short effect window. Some PED's do, some don't. I don't think I'm wrong in stating a blood bag would have a quick boost, but EPO (as an example) needs days.

 

[DirtyWorks]

This judging a performance's validity by facial expression is starting to annoy me.

Nibs this year, last year it was Horner and Richie's "smiling". Noone seemed to notice him smiling when he crossed the line 9 mins down on the winner the other day.

Call 'em out as dopers to your hearts content, but if your argument is primarily based on the above, I'm gonna call BS, sorry.

http://veloclinic.tumblr.com/post/92408525918/2014-tour-de-france-stage-13-and-14-brief-analysis

 

[meat puppet]

So everyone juiced the night of stage 13 in preparation for stage 14?

The post claims that in relation to the established baselines, the so called doping era and the so called cleans era, stage 14 was much faster in relative terms than stage 13. It also interprets the data so that suspicion is justified when compared to past performances.

Note also that nibali put two bars up on the belles filles.

How the riders achieved this is an open question.

 

[Escarabajo]

" Those who know him and his parents well say that his father, Salvatore, waved him off into the pro peloton with a message along these lines: “Enzo [how he’s known at home], I’m happy that you’re going to be a cyclist because it was your dream. You might win or lose, but the only thing you must never do is cheat. Because, if you do, you can forget about ever coming back to Sicily.”

You are being very naive. Those words will not help you when comitting a crime.

 

[Escarabajo]

I don't know, I'm starting to fall for it all again. Some exceptions at the top aside, this looks so utterly more believable than the absurdity of the last couple of years.

It's weird because after the first couple of hilly or mountain stages I was thinking the juice was strong across the boards and it was getting worse again. These guys look tired after a few days in the mountains. The guys finishing in the top ten appear in some cases pretty believable in terms of performances.

Maybe it's just that the two most powerful and explosive riders are out of it, and I know Nibali is going very fast, but a few places down it looks kind of normal.

Am I being a sucker? Benotti, don't answer that...

This Tour is just a bad coincidence. Nibali is riding with just one leg. People just don't notice because the competition has been awful. Had Contador or Froome been there Nibali would have had to step up a notch or all his notches in order to keep up. We would be telling another story.

I always thought he had talent. The only thing that bugs me about him is the lack of performance before his biggest races during his career. He has repeated the same pattern as the Texan in that respect.

 

[mrhender]

You are being very naive. Those words will not help you when comitting a crime.

Have to agree...

Every top-performance raises suspicion..
Stories like the one you commented on are created to lighten up the pressure..
Even IF it was true, it has no merit in the discussion of doping or not..

 

[Netserk]

This Tour is just a bad coincidence. Nibali is riding with just one leg. People just don't notice because the competition has been awful. Had Contador or Froome been there Nibali would have had to step up a notch or all his notches in order to keep up. We would be telling another story.

I always thought he had talent. The only thing that bugs me about him is the lack of performance before his biggest races during his career. He has repeated the same pattern as the Texan in that respect.

Before the Giro last year:

http://www.cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=24111

http://www.cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=24339

 

[Escarabajo]

Where does the Testosterone/HGH fit? It will make a huge difference over three weeks and not even come close to testing suspicious, much less positive.

I thought it was implied in all 3 cases. That is your base!

 

[Escarabajo]

Before the Giro last year:

http://www.cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=24111

http://www.cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=24339

Ooops, I generilized it too much, I guess.

The Texan sometimes showed up for the Dauphine as well. But in general he was just too focus on one race. Very important for his medical program.

 

[Franklin]

The only thing that bugs me about him is the lack of performance before his biggest races during his career. He has repeated the same pattern as the Texan in that respect.

Even pre-90 this was not completely unheard of. Lieing low can be a good tactic... and indeed sometimes people hit form very fast and late (for example Greg Lemond).

And OTOH we have riders ripping it up a whole year (Wiggo Froome) and we have questionmarks on them as well(rightly so!).

Again, I don't have any faith in Nibbles, but this is not exactly telltale. There are many ways to peak towards a race even if you are clean.

 

[the sceptic]

If Nibali tests positive this might actually be the cleanest tour in a long time.

Even Horner looks normal

 

[ebandit]

if

If Nibali tests positive this might actually be the cleanest tour in a long time.

Even Horner looks normal

if his nibs passes all tests...........that's a cleaner tour

Mark L