Movistar Tactics

[ILovecycling]

God, I just realised that I probably hate Valverde even more than LRP, and thats serious...

 

[Carl0880]

My guess is if they see Froome's team in trouble or Froome himself in trouble early in the stage then they will go out for the assault on the yellow. If they look strong then on the final climb they will try claw back time, but try to solidify Valverde's third place. If Nairo was within a minute or a minute and a half, then it be different, but 3 minutes is a significant time to make up.

I think the question about strategy will depends on the relationship with Nairo and Valverde. They of course want to win the race, but I get the sense from what I have read that they would really like to maintain Valverde on the podium. He is 35, and out of all his accomplishments, really the only thing missing is the World's Gold and a TDF podium. He has been the team's bell cow for 10 years now. Eventhough there is no guarantees in sport, Quintana is only 25, so they still think his best years are in front of him.

I am not a big fan of Valverde, and some of his tactics, but the man has consistently produced results year in and year out for a long time. There are a bunch of riders that do a ton of sitting on, that have no where near his results.

 

[sunnyIce]

I really hope Froome goes kamikaze with Geraint and puts serious time on Valverde and get G on the podium. That would be a fitting and admittedly delightful ending to this Tour.

 

[wwabbit]

I agree ray j willings,
prior to stage 17 Quitana was -3:10 Valverde -4:02 & Contador -4:23 down
Contador's long range attack was perfect for Moviestar. All they had to do was wait until Froome felt a greater threat from Contador's move. Sooner or later Froome & Sky would react, they aren't going to risk letting Contador gain sufficient time.
So Moviestart wait, Sky react and burn off their riders in chase and isolating Froome (if Froome doesn't have to respond himself by then anyway). If/when Froome draws Contador back it opens up the door for Valverde &/or Quintana to then attack. They also need a lot of time & if they want to win the Tour then they have to chance their current position by gambling on allowing Contador free reign when he attacks.
Put Froome & Sky under pressure early enough on the mountains.

They aren't going to beat Froome they way they are currently racing.

That's not going to work. Sky would allow the gap to Contador to go out to 4 mins by Allos, and they can do that without expending much energy. At which point, Contador would either be going up Allos alone if he had used his teammates to bring him to Allos, or he would be fatigued by the time he reached Allos and will lose a couple of minutes on the climb. Sky only has to continue riding a strong steady tempo, and even if they lose riders on the Allos climb, they still had Porte and Roche ahead - excellent move putting them in the break. So probably at best Contador will gain 2 minutes on the GC, and that suits Froome just fine.

And of course, Movistar can't allow that to happen because that that would put Contador up ahead of Quintana and Valverde, so they did the right thing in closing down that move.

 

[SafeBet]

Re:

Consolidated 2nd and 3rd, great result. Quintana just needs to go on and win Alpe d'huez now. The best reasonably achievable result against a superior rider in Chris Froome.

Like the superior rider Contador looked to be during the Giro until he cracked and then Astana regretted not trying before?

 

[hrotha]

Re:

Can't really fault Quintana today, he tried several times.

The only thing he was going to achieve with those late attacks was to appease his conscience by enabling him to say he tried, even though it's hogwash. He can't put enough time on Froome like that. In my book, it doesn't count as trying if what you did could never have been expected to succeed.

He made one tactically astute attack on Allos, but that was entirely too close to the summit, too short, and lacking too much conviction.

 

[Broccolidwarf]

Re: Re:

Can't really fault Quintana today, he tried several times.

The only thing he was going to achieve with those late attacks was to appease his conscience by enabling him to say he tried, even though it's hogwash. He can't put enough time on Froome like that. In my book, it doesn't count as trying if what you did could never have been expected to succeed.

He made one tactically astute attack on Allos, but that was entirely too close to the summit, too short, and lacking too much conviction.

You are missing the point.

Froome will never let Quintana get away, he will be on his wheel every time.

That is why Movie should have used Valverde early, to force Froome to react, while Quintana could just ride on his wheel till he blew up, and then attack...... but apparently, Valverde is not willing to sacrifice for the team to win the Tour.

 

[Ludwig's Olaf]

Valverde was regarded as the new Armstrong 10 years ago, even a Merckx given his versatility. And then came Contador and Valverde didn't finish once better than Berti in any tour they both participated in. Now is his probably last chance at the age of 35. What are they supposed to do at Moviestar? They can't beat Froome anyway, and a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

 

[Trev_S]

I agree ray j willings,
prior to stage 17 Quitana was -3:10 Valverde -4:02 & Contador -4:23 down
Contador's long range attack was perfect for Moviestar. All they had to do was wait until Froome felt a greater threat from Contador's move. Sooner or later Froome & Sky would react, they aren't going to risk letting Contador gain sufficient time.
So Moviestart wait, Sky react and burn off their riders in chase and isolating Froome (if Froome doesn't have to respond himself by then anyway). If/when Froome draws Contador back it opens up the door for Valverde &/or Quintana to then attack. They also need a lot of time & if they want to win the Tour then they have to chance their current position by gambling on allowing Contador free reign when he attacks.
Put Froome & Sky under pressure early enough on the mountains.

They aren't going to beat Froome they way they are currently racing.

That's not going to work. Sky would allow the gap to Contador to go out to 4 mins by Allos, and they can do that without expending much energy. At which point, Contador would either be going up Allos alone if he had used his teammates to bring him to Allos, or he would be fatigued by the time he reached Allos and will lose a couple of minutes on the climb. Sky only has to continue riding a strong steady tempo, and even if they lose riders on the Allos climb, they still had Porte and Roche ahead - excellent move putting them in the break. So probably at best Contador will gain 2 minutes on the GC, and that suits Froome just fine.

And of course, Movistar can't allow that to happen because that that would put Contador up ahead of Quintana and Valverde, so they did the right thing in closing down that move.

Your right it probably wouldn't have worked, not for Contador, but non the less Froome wouldn't want a rider like Contador back in the picture where seconds count. He & what team mates were left would have chased. Don't forget Tinkoff also had riders ahead up the road as well which would have been a concern for Froome and he only had one team mate with him at the time, even though there were 2 up the road they'd have to wait just as Tinkoff would be doing.
I think it still would have played into Movistars hands as Foome would be a little tired from chasing and Contador tired from attack.
It may have still come to naught on that stage but might pay dividends on these next couple of days in the Alps.

 

[Red Rick]

Nice job Quintana. When you want to go, you go, and don't ask permission from Valverde before chasing Contador

 

[mr. tibbs]

Re:

My guess is if they see Froome's team in trouble or Froome himself in trouble early in the stage then they will go out for the assault on the yellow.
[...]

Welp, we can pretty much count on THAT not happening--especially since Movistar hasn't shown any interest in testing Sky until the finale of each stage, if even then.

Podium spots for everyone!

EDIT: This speaks to why guys like Valverde and Hincapie languish without getting the wins they could have: they wait and see. They look, they check things out, they test the waters, they wait for the race to happen and then react. And the guys who make the race happen--instead of waiting--win.

For Valverde, just look at last year's Lombardia. Or Gerrans and the WC. Or Hincapie and any edition of Paris-Roubaix that he didn't crash out of. They all lost these races to guys who risked blowing up to get the win, while they themselves rode conservatively (or smart or tactically or whatever pacifying euphemism you prefer) and gained yet more podium or top-five finishes instead.

That's essentially what Movistar and Quintana are doing at the Tour. If Quintana wants to break Froome with an attack, he has to risk breaking himself, first. But that would risk him losing a couple of minutes and the podium spot, so podium places it is.

 

[Escarabajo]

Tomorrow there could be confusion at Movistar's camp during the race.

Hope they make everything clear overnight!

 

[bala v]

Re: Re:

My guess is if they see Froome's team in trouble or Froome himself in trouble early in the stage then they will go out for the assault on the yellow.
[...]

Welp, we can pretty much count on THAT not happening--especially since Movistar hasn't shown any interest in testing Sky until the finale of each stage, if even then.

Podium spots for everyone!

EDIT: This speaks to why guys like Valverde and Hincapie languish without getting the wins they could have: they wait and see. They look, they check things out, they test the waters, they wait for the race to happen and then react. And the guys who make the race happen--instead of waiting--win.

For Valverde, just look at last year's Lombardia. Or Gerrans and the WC. Or Hincapie and any edition of Paris-Roubaix that he didn't crash out of. They all lost these races to guys who risked blowing up to get the win, while they themselves rode conservatively (or smart or tactically or whatever pacifying euphemism you prefer) and gained yet more podium or top-five finishes instead.

That's essentially what Movistar and Quintana are doing at the Tour. If Quintana wants to break Froome with an attack, he has to risk breaking himself, first. But that would risk him losing a couple of minutes and the podium spot, so podium places it is.

Pretty strange statement for a guy who won nearly 100 races in his career

 

[ray j willings]

Tomorrow ,,,Valverde attacks from the off ,,,,better check with DB first though

 

[mr. tibbs]

Re: Re:

My guess is if they see Froome's team in trouble or Froome himself in trouble early in the stage then they will go out for the assault on the yellow.
[...]

Welp, we can pretty much count on THAT not happening--especially since Movistar hasn't shown any interest in testing Sky until the finale of each stage, if even then.

Podium spots for everyone!

EDIT: This speaks to why guys like Valverde and Hincapie languish without getting the wins they could have [...]

Pretty strange statement for a guy who won nearly 100 races in his career

I stand by it. Despite how many races he's won, he could have a few more big ones.

 

[IndianCyclist]

Too much to lose with 2% chance of winning. So 2 &3 is ok

 

[BigMac]

I hope Contador kicks Valverde out of third place. And that Quintana somehow loses his second, too, for the team's disgraceful riding protecting two podium spots. They could very well attack Froome from far out with Valverde, Sky looks weak. But they want 2nd and 3rd too much.

 

[Billie]

Re:

Sky looks weak. But they want 2nd and 3rd too much.

They only had 6 guys in the 20 men group on Glandon.

Even Roche looked good today

 

[cineteq]

Re:

Too much to lose with 2% chance of winning. So 2 &3 is ok

Actually it's 30%. And 50% if Valverde attacks from far. Also there is 99% chance Valverde will be out of the podium by Sunday.

 

[damian13ster]

Re: Re:

Too much to lose with 2% chance of winning. So 2 &3 is ok

Actually it's 30%. And 50% if Valverde attacks from far. Also there is 99% chance Valverde will be out of the podium by Sunday.

Where are you getting those numbers from?
Just take a look at GC and who controls the race. Your numbers are orders of magnitude higher than actual odds.
1 in 2 chances that if Valverde attacks from far out (Valverde, who you claim has 99% chances of cracking on next 2 stages) then Quintana who isn't able to grab a single second from Froome on any stage, lost time on the flat, in TT, and in the mountains will make up over 3 minutes?
Don't know what stuff are you on man but I want some

 

[Jelantik]

i hope more fireworks for the top GC... not another flawing contador or nibali.. tries to lit up the race.

 

[RedheadDane]

I'm gonna be really weird here and assume Movistar know what they're doing.
Of course I have no way of knowing what their plan is, since I haven't been present in the team bus during their tactic-meetings, and even if I had I probably wouldn't know anyway since I'm guessing they'd speak Spanish.

 

[ILovecycling]

From those videos interview I have seen this Tour, Unzue as a DS of such a good GC team is a massive disgrace.To put it mildly.

 

[wwabbit]

Your right it probably wouldn't have worked, not for Contador, but non the less Froome wouldn't want a rider like Contador back in the picture where seconds count. He & what team mates were left would have chased. Don't forget Tinkoff also had riders ahead up the road as well which would have been a concern for Froome and he only had one team mate with him at the time, even though there were 2 up the road they'd have to wait just as Tinkoff would be doing.

Except that Sky has already shown that they would let Contador go, and that was exactly what they did at the stage. Sky is not worried about 'letting Contador back in the picture' because he's not going to pull back enough minutes to be a concern, even with his teammates up ahead. And the same thing happened again on Stage 18. Contador is simply not a treat to Froome anymore, but a threat to Movistar, and that is simply why Movistar has to take care of him and not Sky.

 

[Mr.White]

Re:

From those videos interview I have seen this Tour, Unzue as a DS of such a good GC team is a massive disgrace.To put it mildly.

Unzue disgrace!!! You're talking about one of the best DS of last 20-30 years!!! You think you have credibility for that! You're some kind of expert?! Or you're just dissapointed in your rider's performance? Well don't blame Unzue for Quintana not fulfilling your expectations!