Teams & Riders Nairo Quintana discussion thread

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Re:

HelloDolly said:
I am inclined to think Valverde & TJ in a break might be a way forward...Attacking the train on a mountain does not look like it will suffice ...maybe Kreuz also

And later attack with Aru & Baret & Quintana ..one after the other or all together
Valverde has to try to get into break in 3rd week for sure. We have seen Sky in trouble actually when stage starts with a climb. Froome has been reduced to 3 helpers when they try to control breakaways with riders that they can't let away but what happened is that everybody starts to wait meanwhile Sky helpers come back and their train gets back together. Instead of waiting they should keep making a good tempo and attack whenever possible to make riders like Henao, Nieve and Poels work on the flats and early climbs.
 
Jul 12, 2013
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Is it just me who thinks Emosson is not a good stage for Nairo to gain significant time?
Basically it is not so different from Ventoux 2013. The first two cat3 climbs have 4.5% percentage so they are more like a power ride in which the peloton will ride at 30kph.
The last two climbs have a total of 23km of climbing with 7km of descent in between (basically a Ventoux with 7km climbing in between).
In normal conditions I expect Nairo to move in the last 3k of Emosson.
I will be glad if proven wrong but in the end, it is a stage which comes after the rest day, the GC contenders will be well rested and odds for bonks or any other performance dysfunction seem quite low.
The jump of quality (if it will ever happen) by Nairo, will be made in Monte de Bisanne IMO.
 
Mar 13, 2015
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Re: Re:

ILovecycling said:
Escarabajo said:
I have to agree with Perico on this one.

Valverde has had many opportunities in the past. And TBH to try to put him on the podium again is a lost cause. The minute they support him will be their demise.

HelloDolly, that is a good approach. But it was said the same in the past about the US Postal service. But in reality each team have their own agenda and different from each other. And TBH Movistar is the most conservative and the only one with a slight chance to win. The other teams do not have the same interests. I think they are fighting for the podium. Froome and Sky know that and will use it in their benefit.
Yes, Im really tired of Valverde "attacks" :eek:
Sorry but he has enough good acceleration to build a serious gap, those attacks were a joke

This needs to be all or nothing approach if Quintana has legs in the 3rd week.
So Aru and Bardet attacks were joke too?
 
Re: Re:

SeriousSam said:
ILovecycling said:
Escarabajo said:
I have to agree with Perico on this one.

Valverde has had many opportunities in the past. And TBH to try to put him on the podium again is a lost cause. The minute they support him will be their demise.

HelloDolly, that is a good approach. But it was said the same in the past about the US Postal service. But in reality each team have their own agenda and different from each other. And TBH Movistar is the most conservative and the only one with a slight chance to win. The other teams do not have the same interests. I think they are fighting for the podium. Froome and Sky know that and will use it in their benefit.
Yes, Im really tired of Valverde "attacks" :eek:
Sorry but he has enough good acceleration to build a serious gap, those attacks were a joke

This needs to be all or nothing approach if Quintana has legs in the 3rd week.
Can you describe what sequence of events leads to Quintana gaining a lot of time on Froome if Valverde empties himself with an attack?

Take yesterday's stage.
None.

But it is the only hope. Otherwise it will be a mano a mano Quintana against Froome and Sky. We want it to be Quintana versus Froome only like in La Toussiere last year.
 
Jul 8, 2016
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The only one in the peloton that can make things hard for Sky is Valverde. He has to to ride at the front full gas until he explodes, and when that happens Quintana attacks. That is the only way this is going to work. Movistar know this - they just don't trust Quintana enough otherwise they would have done that already.

To clarify, this has to happen bottom of the last climb at least.
 
Re:

LeSensei said:
The only one in the peloton that can make things hard for Sky is Valverde. He has to to ride at the front full gas until he explodes, and when that happens Quintana attacks. That is the only way this is going to work. Movistar know this - they just don't trust Quintana enough otherwise they would have done that already.
This. One of them will have to attack and not give up if no else works. That's preserving your own GC placing. If Valverde is really stronger than sacrifice Quintana. Force Sky to use up every domestique before the final climb. Don't sit up if you can't get more than 30 seconds. Hold that 1 minute gap until Sky is used up and you have a 1 on 1 showdown. Armstrong famously cracked on Joux Plane in 2000, and would've lost the Tour without his already massive (over 6 minutes on 2nd place Ulrich) advantage. Froome doesn't have a huge time gap like that. If he cracks, then he would lose the tour.

You have to be willing to lose it all in order to win. A 3rd and a 5th place is worthless when you are too timid.
 
The reason they have not done it is because Quintana has been weak or below his peak. That's all. No reason to do it and lose more time.

All in all Quintana has been lucky because of the Ventoux fiasco and yesterday ended in long flat. Otherwise it would be 5 minutes by now. Funny think is that he still has a long shot.
 
Re: Re:

perico said:
LeSensei said:
The only one in the peloton that can make things hard for Sky is Valverde. He has to to ride at the front full gas until he explodes, and when that happens Quintana attacks. That is the only way this is going to work. Movistar know this - they just don't trust Quintana enough otherwise they would have done that already.
This. One of them will have to attack and not give up if no else works. That's preserving your own GC placing. If Valverde is really stronger than sacrifice Quintana. Force Sky to use up every domestique before the final climb. Don't sit up if you can't get more than 30 seconds. Hold that 1 minute gap until Sky is used up and you have a 1 on 1 showdown. Armstrong famously cracked on Joux Plane in 2000, and would've lost the Tour without his already massive (over 6 minutes on 2nd place Ulrich) advantage. Froome doesn't have a huge time gap like that. If he cracks, then he would lose the tour.
this is a problem when SKYs domestiques are as strong as valverde :eek:
 
Re:

Escarabajo said:
The reason they have not done it is because Quintana has been weak or below his peak. That's all. No reason to do it and lose more time.

All in all Quintana has been lucky because of the Ventoux fiasco and yesterday ended in long flat. Otherwise it would be 5 minutes by now. Funny think is that he still has a long shot.

Don't you believe Quintana when he says his from is good (said in interview yesterday on EU)
Is he lying ??
 
Re: Re:

roundabout said:
HelloDolly said:
Need some shock and awe like the Baigners du Luchon stage in 2013

But the team to provide it can not be Movistar
The difference is that in 2013 the only useful climbers were Porte and occasionally Kennaugh.

This year Froome has a much deeper team.

Obviously this shock & awe needs to happen on stage with a serious of climbs

Put the hammer down on the 1st climb and get bodies in the break ( Movistar/BMC/Astana)

When SKY slow the peloton down after break goes for Stannard/Rowe & Kiry to get back ...second break attack wt Valverde /TJ

Now SKY climbers like Heano & Landa & Nieve on back foot as have to chase in valley

Hopefuly lose some there

On 3rd climb Astana re groupand go for it ...

On final climb Quintana attacks and bardet


Needs alot of climbs .....but no one said it would be easy :D
Maybe even need 2 stages
 
Re: Re:

HelloDolly said:
Escarabajo said:
The reason they have not done it is because Quintana has been weak or below his peak. That's all. No reason to do it and lose more time.

All in all Quintana has been lucky because of the Ventoux fiasco and yesterday ended in long flat. Otherwise it would be 5 minutes by now. Funny think is that he still has a long shot.

Don;t you believe Quintana whne he say his from is good (said in interview yesterday on EU)
Is he lying ??
Don't they all? The GC contender who is honest about their form when they aren't 100% isn't going to be a GC contender the next day.

If Quintana is too weak, then use him to attack early and put your cards in Alejandro, ala CSC with Sastre on Alpe d'huez in 2008. Either they chase Quintana down and burn their domestiques up, or they let him go. Knowing Sky- they will chase, so if Alejandro is riding better than Nairo, let him take Froome by himself. The point is that one of them is going to have to sacrifice possibly their Top 10 placing so the other can face Froome one on one. That means going full out 60 KMs from the finish as though it were the sprint finish. Heneo, Poels, Nieve and Thomas are all fine riders capable of riding high in the GC on their own, but they aren't GT winners (Landa can climb like that, but he's not on form this year). They won't be able to close the gap on a true elite climber without wearing themselves down in the process.

Despite the fact that he looks an alien on the bike, Froome is a human, and he is beatable when isolated. Look at the 2014 Vuelta: Froome was not 100% the first week, but by the 3rd week, both he and Contador were peaking. You can see it by watching stage 16 and 20. Froome is putting in that same attack that you see now. Make him beat you one on one:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m3fNXFLtwcM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ET1mKy8bjhU

Froome will wear himself out with his attacks, and Contador was able to to withstand his assaults then dropped him. . Don't let him use his team to set the tempo on the final climb. He's not climbing as well as he was in the 3rd week of the Vuelta, when he could drop everyone bar Bertie. Even Mollema commented that he was surprised he was able to catch up on the Ventoux.

Quintana is (supposed to be) a rare climbing talent who has the capability to drop Froome in the mountains. He put him under pressure last year. Quintana and Valverde are the only two explosive enough to beat Froome. Porte sure as hell isn't, though he's one of the toughest to drop, while Mollema and Yates are just happy to be there it seems.
 
Re:

Escarabajo said:
The reason they have not done it is because Quintana has been weak or below his peak. That's all. No reason to do it and lose more time.

All in all Quintana has been lucky because of the Ventoux fiasco and yesterday ended in long flat. Otherwise it would be 5 minutes by now. Funny think is that he still has a long shot.
To me it seems that Movistar doesn't know who is their main GC guy right now. They say that Quintana is but when we see how cautiously they race with Valverde and Quintana I'd say that they themselves have no idea. Unless they don't figure out who they are going to back 100% they won't achieve anything (maybe a podium but nothing more).
 
Jul 18, 2014
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I think Movistar will need a team other than them and Sky to set the pace from the start. Astana did a good job of it late in the race on Saturday. Hopefully someone can set a high pace early on one of these stages and that will require Sky to burn through guys quicker. Doing this, hopefully Movistar will have something left in the tank late because it won't be their guys out front working all day.
 
Re: Re:

RattaKuningas said:
Escarabajo said:
The reason they have not done it is because Quintana has been weak or below his peak. That's all. No reason to do it and lose more time.

All in all Quintana has been lucky because of the Ventoux fiasco and yesterday ended in long flat. Otherwise it would be 5 minutes by now. Funny think is that he still has a long shot.
To me it seems that Movistar doesn't know who is their main GC guy right now. They say that Quintana is but when we see how cautiously they race with Valverde and Quintana I'd say that they themselves have no idea. Unless they don't figure out who they are going to back 100% they won't achieve anything (maybe a podium but nothing more).
The best thing you can do if you know your number one guy will probably not outmatch the race leader is keep your number two guy as close as possible, hoping that if either one of them creates a situation the teammate can exploit the situation. Till now, there has been no reason to waste Valverde - maybe there will be in future but for now keeping pressure on Froome with two instead of one is preferable.
 
Re: Re:

Arnout said:
RattaKuningas said:
Escarabajo said:
The reason they have not done it is because Quintana has been weak or below his peak. That's all. No reason to do it and lose more time.

All in all Quintana has been lucky because of the Ventoux fiasco and yesterday ended in long flat. Otherwise it would be 5 minutes by now. Funny think is that he still has a long shot.
To me it seems that Movistar doesn't know who is their main GC guy right now. They say that Quintana is but when we see how cautiously they race with Valverde and Quintana I'd say that they themselves have no idea. Unless they don't figure out who they are going to back 100% they won't achieve anything (maybe a podium but nothing more).
The best thing you can do if you know your number one guy will probably not outmatch the race leader is keep your number two guy as close as possible, hoping that if either one of them creates a situation the teammate can exploit the situation. Till now, there has been no reason to waste Valverde - maybe there will be in future but for now keeping pressure on Froome with two instead of one is preferable.
But the question is who is number one and number 2? I think they have no idea.
 
Aug 31, 2012
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CN: What do you make of Movistar’s approach?

Yates: Ultimately if you look at the climbing numbers and the way Sky are performing, everything is dictated by what you are able to do. You can talk tactics all day long but if you haven’t got the legs you haven’t got the legs. They [Sky] are only bothered about Quintana, but he hasn’t got the legs at the moment and he’s got a fair amount of time to make up.

Sky over the last few years have controlled matters very well and they’ve got a solid team, and if you stay as a team you know you can control pretty much any scenario. Of course it looks good when you attack but if you have a minute and a half to make up… Obviously we saw in the Giro d'Italia that it is possible, but it was possible because Chaves cracked. In theory anyone can crack, but it’s unlikely in my opinion that Froome will crack. I think he’s got it sewn up.
CN: Are most of the guys in the top 10 happy with what they’ve got?

Yates: Adam Yates is obviously a young guy – he’s going to follow for as long as he can. With Mollema it’s similar because he’s never been in this situation before.

If you try something reckless on stage 17 or 18 then you might pay on stage 20. In my opinion they’d be better waiting until stage 20 and the climb of the [Col de] Joux Plane. Ok, then it’s downhill to the finish and the last stage, but if you try anything before that it’s compromising your position. One day a big effort, and the next day you pay. If you go for it on stage 19 to Mont Blanc, on stage 20 you potentially lose everything on the Joux Plane – if you can’t keep the pace set by Woet Poels, for example. You can lose a minute and a half and slip from second to fifth.
Summary: Power is everything and the victory is not everything. Results other than 1st are desirable too. Will come as a huge shock to many here.
 
It is not a shock. People in this forum have never understood that. Maybe it is a young audience. But in reality if any of us are in the same situation the podium or top ten is very important as well.

Now for a guy like Contador and soon Quintana the podium will not be as important because they don't gain anything by repeating it.
 
Aug 6, 2015
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Re:

Escarabajo said:
It is not a shock. People in this forum have never understood that. Maybe it is a young audience. But in reality if any of us are in the same situation the podium or top ten is very important as well.

Now for a guy like Contador and soon Quintana the podium will not be as important because they don't gain anything by repeating it.
What?? Contador at age of 24, was always attacking rasmussen and he was in second place. So contador never rode for second place while quintana cares about second place
 
Mar 31, 2014
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Re: Re:

HelloDolly said:
roundabout said:
HelloDolly said:
Need some shock and awe like the Baigners du Luchon stage in 2013

But the team to provide it can not be Movistar
The difference is that in 2013 the only useful climbers were Porte and occasionally Kennaugh.

This year Froome has a much deeper team.

Obviously this shock & awe needs to happen on stage with a serious of climbs

Put the hammer down on the 1st climb and get bodies in the break ( Movistar/BMC/Astana)

When SKY slow the peloton down after break goes for Stannard/Rowe & Kiry to get back ...second break attack wt Valverde /TJ

Now SKY climbers like Heano & Landa & Nieve on back foot as have to chase in valley

Hopefuly lose some there

On 3rd climb Astana re groupand go for it ...

On final climb Quintana attacks and bardet


Needs alot of climbs .....but no one said it would be easy :D
Maybe even need 2 stages
If Froome has no teammates at the final climb he will attack by himself and destroy all the others or do a nice MTT with 400 watts like in the Vuelta 14. Only Contador was able to hang on. That is not really a problem for him.

If you want to crack Froome, you need a crazy stage and special circumstances. That he forget to eat enough. Or can't get enough water bottles from the car, because of the stress and the high speed. You have to make a really really hard stage. The best stages for this were at Sunday and in the Pyrennes. But when you only sit at the wheels and wait until Stannard and Rowe are back in the bunch its ....

You saw it at sunday, Stannard, Rowe and Kiri lost contact at the first climb, Geraint had a mechanical later, Nieve chrashed and Henao had a bad day. But nothing happened, because all the others were sitting at the wheels from km 0 till km 140. You have to take risks if you want to beat them. And you need luck. But it's impossible to sit at the wheels and wait till the last climb.
 
Re: Re:

portugal11 said:
Escarabajo said:
It is not a shock. People in this forum have never understood that. Maybe it is a young audience. But in reality if any of us are in the same situation the podium or top ten is very important as well.

Now for a guy like Contador and soon Quintana the podium will not be as important because they don't gain anything by repeating it.
What?? Contador at age of 24, was always attacking rasmussen and he was in second place. So contador never rode for second place while quintana cares about second place
Contador is better, blah, blah, blah. Contador obviously had the legs, look at just how insane his attacks were. The problem here isn't they don't wanna do that, the problem is they can't, simples.
 
Re: Re:

boasson said:
HelloDolly said:
roundabout said:
HelloDolly said:
Need some shock and awe like the Baigners du Luchon stage in 2013

But the team to provide it can not be Movistar
The difference is that in 2013 the only useful climbers were Porte and occasionally Kennaugh.

This year Froome has a much deeper team.

Obviously this shock & awe needs to happen on stage with a serious of climbs

Put the hammer down on the 1st climb and get bodies in the break ( Movistar/BMC/Astana)

When SKY slow the peloton down after break goes for Stannard/Rowe & Kiry to get back ...second break attack wt Valverde /TJ

Now SKY climbers like Heano & Landa & Nieve on back foot as have to chase in valley

Hopefuly lose some there

On 3rd climb Astana re groupand go for it ...

On final climb Quintana attacks and bardet


Needs alot of climbs .....but no one said it would be easy :D
Maybe even need 2 stages
If Froome has no teammates at the final climb he will attack by himself and destroy all the others or do a nice MTT with 400 watts like in the Vuelta 14. Only Contador was able to hang on. That is not really a problem for him.

If you want to crack Froome, you need a crazy stage and special circumstances. That he forget to eat enough. Or can't get enough water bottles from the car, because of the stress and the high speed. You have to make a really really hard stage. The best stages for this were at Sunday and in the Pyrennes. But when you only sit at the wheels and wait until Stannard and Rowe are back in the bunch its ....

You saw it at sunday, Stannard, Rowe and Kiri lost contact at the first climb, Geraint had a mechanical later, Nieve chrashed and Henao had a bad day. But nothing happened, because all the others were sitting at the wheels from km 0 till km 140. You have to take risks if you want to beat them. And you need luck. But it's impossible to sit at the wheels and wait till the last climb.
everytime i see a post like this i hope i will finally read names instead of ideas

every forum poster has an idea how to attack SKY,but nobody mentions names

who is gonna make the stage hard? who? if you have an idea say who can make that idea happen
 

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