Teams & Riders Nairo Quintana discussion thread

[Squire]

People seem to have pretty selective memory when it comes to Schleck and time trials. He was a consistently decent time trialist. Unfortunately his big rivals were very good ones. I'd say Quintana's and Schleck's TT abilities are quite similar. Quintana is fortunate to go up against only one good time trialist.

 

[Alexandre B.]

Re:

People seem to have pretty selective memory when it comes to Schleck and time trials. He was a consistently decent time trialist. Unfortunately his big rivals were very good ones. I'd say Quintana's and Schleck's TT abilities are quite similar. Quintana is fortunate to go up against only one good time trialist.

Andy Schleck TT career: http://www.procyclingstats.com/rider.php?id=140242&season=&c=5&year=&nation=&race=&types%5B%5D=3&sort=date&rnk=&ApplyFilter=Filter
Nairo Quintana TT career: http://www.procyclingstats.com/rider.php?id=140292&season=&c=5&year=&nation=&race=&types%5B%5D=3&sort=date&rnk=&ApplyFilter=Filter
I'd say there's quite a difference.

Andy is far better than his brother at time trialling, but as a GC leader he was very average on that department.

 

[Netserk]

Re: Re:

People seem to have pretty selective memory when it comes to Schleck and time trials. He was a consistently decent time trialist. Unfortunately his big rivals were very good ones. I'd say Quintana's and Schleck's TT abilities are quite similar. Quintana is fortunate to go up against only one good time trialist.

Andy Schleck TT career: http://www.procyclingstats.com/rider.php?id=140242&season=&c=5&year=&nation=&race=&types%5B%5D=3&sort=date&rnk=&ApplyFilter=Filter
Nairo Quintana TT career: http://www.procyclingstats.com/rider.php?id=140292&season=&c=5&year=&nation=&race=&types%5B%5D=3&sort=date&rnk=&ApplyFilter=Filter
I'd say there's quite a difference.

Andy is far better than his brother at time trialling, but as a GC leader he was very average on that department.

It doesn't make any sense to compare them outside of GTs.

 

[movingtarget]

Re:

Even without his Tour win, Ulle was still a greater rider than Heras and Simoni. I think it's quite clear that Quintana is on another level than Andy.

Andy had 3x2nd in the Tour, 2nd in the Giro and a Liege win.
Quintana has 2x2nd in the Tour and a 3rd, a Giro and Vuelta win, Itzulia, Tirreno, Catalunya and Romandie. And is only almost 27...

Just because Quintana is only 27 it does not mean he will necessarily win a Tour. If Froome wins the next two for arguments sake by then other riders could have improved and there could be new talents on the scene. Andy Schleck could have won 2008, 2010 and 2011 on the road but he won none except for his paper win in 2010. Sometimes the missed opportunities never come again. I think Andy's biggest downfall was his attitude and his tactics. His TT was not good against the best but he was still in a position to win three Tours and could not convert any. Even Uran was seen as a possible GT winner after his Giro podiums and he never improved, he went backwards. Andy met Contador and Evans at their peak but Quintana also had to contend with Froome at his peak. If Quintana had taken more risks in the Tour in 2015 he would have won the race.

 

[portugal11]

He will win a tour when froome start to decline (maybe in 2019?). The only future rival that is capable of being (possible) at the same level of quintana, is miguel angel lopez. He is way younger than quintana and have a lot of potencial. Chavez and aru (in my opinion) never will come to quintana's level.

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

Even without his Tour win, Ulle was still a greater rider than Heras and Simoni. I think it's quite clear that Quintana is on another level than Andy.

Andy had 3x2nd in the Tour, 2nd in the Giro and a Liege win.
Quintana has 2x2nd in the Tour and a 3rd, a Giro and Vuelta win, Itzulia, Tirreno, Catalunya and Romandie. And is only almost 27...

Just because Quintana is only 27 it does not mean he will necessarily win a Tour. If Froome wins the next two for arguments sake by then other riders could have improved and there could be new talents on the scene. Andy Schleck could have won 2008, 2010 and 2011 on the road but he won none except for his paper win in 2010. Sometimes the missed opportunities never come again. I think Andy's biggest downfall was his attitude and his tactics. His TT was not good against the best but he was still in a position to win three Tours and could not convert any. Even Uran was seen as a possible GT winner after his Giro podiums and he never improved, he went backwards. Andy met Contador and Evans at their peak but Quintana also had to contend with Froome at his peak. If Quintana had taken more risks in the Tour in 2015 he would have won the race.

Good point on Schleck. Look at what he'd faced if he had continued.

2012 he'd never have won against peak Skytrain+Wiggins+Froome.
2013 against the best Froome we've ever seen on a route with 2TTs. Maybe long range in the 2nd pyrenees stage followed by outclimbing Froome in the Alps
2014 Peak Nibali on a route with wet cobbles and a long TT
2015 Froome and Quintan. TT'ing was limited, so this route may have been possible if he makes in the wind.
2016 Maybe he outclimbs everyone if he's still at his peak

There you have it, the 2 best next opportunities after 2011 are 4 and 5 years later. Winning one would've been really hard, though all races would've benefitted greatly from Andy Schleck being there.

 

[portugal11]

Andy schleck would gain time in the mountains against nibali... I don't want a dibate about this because this is quintana discussion thread

 

[Ikbengodniet]

So Unzue says based on the data Quintana performs better in his 2nd GT of the year. So I think he did start collecting his dataset only last summer?

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

He will win a tour when froome start to decline (maybe in 2019?). The only future rival that is capable of being (possible) at the same level of quintana, is miguel angel lopez. He is way younger than quintana and have a lot of potencial. Chavez and aru (in my opinion) never will come to quintana's level.

Its impossible to say in 2019, we never know how the opposition will develop and how Quintana will develop. Who knows, there might be a a new king in town come 2019-2020. Who thought Wiggins and Evans would be the favourites for Tour de France 2012 in 2010? It would've been ludicrous to say that. And who would've thought that Froome would demolish all opposition in the wake of Evans' win in 2011? There too many random factors to account for.

Ikbengodniet: Good point, I've thought the same. It was the opposite in 2015, but there must be something to it. Now the question is whether he improved from Tour to Vuelta or he just kept the same level, I think he improved slightly, but the opposition was also way weaker in that Vuelta than the Tour which saw a really high overall level climbing wise.

 

[Escarabajo]

Movingtarget makes good points. Quintana have to take bigger risks. Opportunities could be less with time.

Having said that doing the Giro is the first risk he is taking and he is trying something different. He is trying different formula as well. So kudos for that.

I was against an assault on the Giro before the Tour but after giving a second thought I like it better than doing the Tour only. Here are my points:

- He already won the Vuelta and Giro. So why do the Tour-Vuelta double again. No incentive.

- He, IMHO, was in the best position of his life, respect to fitness and preparation, in the Tour 2016. And look what happened. I don't think it had anything to do with taking risks. He was just weak, sick, worn out after flat stages, etc. Pick your excuse here_______. So it brings to our attention of putting all eggs in one basket is also a big risk. Especially when you have Froome and the Sky train as your adversary. So diversify your chances by doing the Giro-Tour double.

- He liked what he saw on his fitness on the second GT last year. He would want to replicate it. I know, I know, Giro is a different animal and the timing between them is shorter, but he still want to replicate it. Period. Whether we agree with him and his coach is our problem.

- I don't see the Tour next year as super hard and with many opportunities for him to win. So the tolerance for peaking at the right moment and at the right stages is very narrow for Quintana. Do anything wrong and he is out. Different to the Tour in 2015 where he allowed himself to buy his time. He had several opportunities to seize the control of the race. He failed but had more opportunities nevertheless. By doing the Giro he believes that his chances of his fitness being very good from the get go are higher than not doing the Giro. Therefore reducing that risk of failing like last year.

You might agree with me or not but those are my points now. That's how I see it.

 

[dacooley]

stating that quintana rides second grand tour better than first one is as smart (and correct) as stating nibs will win the giro because of being the most successful 2017 giro contender or so. wait and see this season. to me it sound as a quite strange explanation to try to make the giro-tour double.

 

[portugal11]

Re: Re:

He will win a tour when froome start to decline (maybe in 2019?). The only future rival that is capable of being (possible) at the same level of quintana, is miguel angel lopez. He is way younger than quintana and have a lot of potencial. Chavez and aru (in my opinion) never will come to quintana's level.

Its impossible to say in 2019, we never know how the opposition will develop and how Quintana will develop. Who knows, there might be a a new king in town come 2019-2020. Who thought Wiggins and Evans would be the favourites for Tour de France 2012 in 2010? It would've been ludicrous to say that. And who would've thought that Froome would demolish all opposition in the wake of Evans' win in 2011? There too many random factors to account for.

Ikbengodniet: Good point, I've thought the same. It was the opposite in 2015, but there must be something to it. Now the question is whether he improved from Tour to Vuelta or he just kept the same level, I think he improved slightly, but the opposition was also way weaker in that Vuelta than the Tour which saw a really high overall level climbing wise.

I said maybe 2019...

 

[movingtarget]

Re: Re:

Even without his Tour win, Ulle was still a greater rider than Heras and Simoni. I think it's quite clear that Quintana is on another level than Andy.

Andy had 3x2nd in the Tour, 2nd in the Giro and a Liege win.
Quintana has 2x2nd in the Tour and a 3rd, a Giro and Vuelta win, Itzulia, Tirreno, Catalunya and Romandie. And is only almost 27...

Just because Quintana is only 27 it does not mean he will necessarily win a Tour. If Froome wins the next two for arguments sake by then other riders could have improved and there could be new talents on the scene. Andy Schleck could have won 2008, 2010 and 2011 on the road but he won none except for his paper win in 2010. Sometimes the missed opportunities never come again. I think Andy's biggest downfall was his attitude and his tactics. His TT was not good against the best but he was still in a position to win three Tours and could not convert any. Even Uran was seen as a possible GT winner after his Giro podiums and he never improved, he went backwards. Andy met Contador and Evans at their peak but Quintana also had to contend with Froome at his peak. If Quintana had taken more risks in the Tour in 2015 he would have won the race.

Good point on Schleck. Look at what he'd faced if he had continued.

2012 he'd never have won against peak Skytrain+Wiggins+Froome.
2013 against the best Froome we've ever seen on a route with 2TTs. Maybe long range in the 2nd pyrenees stage followed by outclimbing Froome in the Alps
2014 Peak Nibali on a route with wet cobbles and a long TT
2015 Froome and Quintan. TT'ing was limited, so this route may have been possible if he makes in the wind.
2016 Maybe he outclimbs everyone if he's still at his peak

There you have it, the 2 best next opportunities after 2011 are 4 and 5 years later. Winning one would've been really hard, though all races would've benefitted greatly from Andy Schleck being there.

It was a shame that Andy retired so young. I just think he expected to win the 2011 Tour after Contador had done the Giro, the same way Evans expected to win the 2008 Tour and neither of them won. I don't think Andy ever recovered mentally from that loss and it took Cadel three years longer to get his win. The Giro should be a very interesting race this year. I think the Giro/Tour double is unlikely in the modern era but it's good that Quintana is not just concentrating on the Tour like many others do unsuccessfully year after year. i would also like to see the French riders get out of this habit of thinking they have to ride the Tour. Surely a French sponsor would be excited by a Giro win even if's not the national race for them and it would be good for the sponsor's business. Some of the French sprinters could also do well in the Giro as the depth isn't the same as the Tour.

 

[Red Rick]

Saying you're best in your 2nd GT of the year seems like a very odd conclusion after 2015 and 2016, unless he believes he was better in last Vuelta than in the Tour of 2015 or 2013.

 

[movingtarget]

Re:

Saying you're best in your 2nd GT of the year seems like a very odd conclusion after 2015 and 2016, unless he believes he was better in last Vuelta than in the Tour of 2015 or 2013.

I don't know how anyone can expect to ride the Giro and back up and expect to be able to fight off fatigue for three weeks and actually be stronger in the Tour. At some point you will pay for doing the earlier race and then you have to ride against a fresh Froome, Bardet, Porte and many others. I would not be surprised by a Giro win but even a Tour podium won't be easy after that. Quintana did look better in the Vuelta than the Tour but he wasn't even close to winning the Tour and Froome had peaked at the end of the Tour, only Froome's ability and fighting qualities kept him in the Vuelta for as long but without Contador's attack Quintana would have had a much harder battle with Froome. And then you have Contador who is simply not the rider he was a few years ago and was very disappointed to lose his podium place to Chaves.

 

[gospina]

Re:

So Unzue says based on the data Quintana performs better in his 2nd GT of the year. So I think he did start collecting his dataset only last summer?

LOL. Good point

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

Saying you're best in your 2nd GT of the year seems like a very odd conclusion after 2015 and 2016, unless he believes he was better in last Vuelta than in the Tour of 2015 or 2013.

I don't know how anyone can expect to ride the Giro and back up and expect to be able to fight off fatigue for three weeks and actually be stronger in the Tour. At some point you will pay for doing the earlier race and then you have to ride against a fresh Froome, Bardet, Porte and many others. I would not be surprised by a Giro win but even a Tour podium won't be easy after that. Quintana did look better in the Vuelta than the Tour but he wasn't even close to winning the Tour and Froome had peaked at the end of the Tour, only Froome's ability and fighting qualities kept him in the Vuelta for as long but without Contador's attack Quintana would have had a much harder battle with Froome. And then you have Contador who is simply not the rider he was a few years ago and was very disappointed to lose his podium place to Chaves.

Yeah, probably peaking for the Giro and then spinning the Wheel of Fortune at the Tour. Nobody will blame him if he doesn't win and even if he peaks correctly this parcours is determined by so few stages the stars have to align anyway. Solid decision, lame excuse.

 

[Guybrush]

Re: Re:

Saying you're best in your 2nd GT of the year seems like a very odd conclusion after 2015 and 2016, unless he believes he was better in last Vuelta than in the Tour of 2015 or 2013.

I don't know how anyone can expect to ride the Giro and back up and expect to be able to fight off fatigue for three weeks and actually be stronger in the Tour. At some point you will pay for doing the earlier race and then you have to ride against a fresh Froome, Bardet, Porte and many others. I would not be surprised by a Giro win but even a Tour podium won't be easy after that. Quintana did look better in the Vuelta than the Tour but he wasn't even close to winning the Tour and Froome had peaked at the end of the Tour, only Froome's ability and fighting qualities kept him in the Vuelta for as long but without Contador's attack Quintana would have had a much harder battle with Froome. And then you have Contador who is simply not the rider he was a few years ago and was very disappointed to lose his podium place to Chaves.

Yeah, probably peaking for the Giro and then spinning the Wheel of Fortune at the Tour. Nobody will blame him if he doesn't win and even if he peaks correctly this parcours is determined by so few stages the stars have to align anyway. Solid decision, lame excuse.

that's right! Contador did the same in 2011 and 2015 and won both times the giro

 

[sQiD]

Re: Re:

Saying you're best in your 2nd GT of the year seems like a very odd conclusion after 2015 and 2016, unless he believes he was better in last Vuelta than in the Tour of 2015 or 2013.

I don't know how anyone can expect to ride the Giro and back up and expect to be able to fight off fatigue for three weeks and actually be stronger in the Tour. At some point you will pay for doing the earlier race and then you have to ride against a fresh Froome, Bardet, Porte and many others. I would not be surprised by a Giro win but even a Tour podium won't be easy after that. Quintana did look better in the Vuelta than the Tour but he wasn't even close to winning the Tour and Froome had peaked at the end of the Tour, only Froome's ability and fighting qualities kept him in the Vuelta for as long but without Contador's attack Quintana would have had a much harder battle with Froome. And then you have Contador who is simply not the rider he was a few years ago and was very disappointed to lose his podium place to Chaves.

Yeah, probably peaking for the Giro and then spinning the Wheel of Fortune at the Tour. Nobody will blame him if he doesn't win and even if he peaks correctly this parcours is determined by so few stages the stars have to align anyway. Solid decision, lame excuse.

that's right! Contador did the same in 2011 and 2015 and won both times the giro

I always thought that Alberto could have won the Giro and the Tour in 2011 if he didn't waste a lot of his energy in Italy. He had the race won very early and should have just managed his efforts. Instead he kept riding agressively and came fatigued at the Tour.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

Saying you're best in your 2nd GT of the year seems like a very odd conclusion after 2015 and 2016, unless he believes he was better in last Vuelta than in the Tour of 2015 or 2013.

I don't know how anyone can expect to ride the Giro and back up and expect to be able to fight off fatigue for three weeks and actually be stronger in the Tour. At some point you will pay for doing the earlier race and then you have to ride against a fresh Froome, Bardet, Porte and many others. I would not be surprised by a Giro win but even a Tour podium won't be easy after that. Quintana did look better in the Vuelta than the Tour but he wasn't even close to winning the Tour and Froome had peaked at the end of the Tour, only Froome's ability and fighting qualities kept him in the Vuelta for as long but without Contador's attack Quintana would have had a much harder battle with Froome. And then you have Contador who is simply not the rider he was a few years ago and was very disappointed to lose his podium place to Chaves.

Yeah, probably peaking for the Giro and then spinning the Wheel of Fortune at the Tour. Nobody will blame him if he doesn't win and even if he peaks correctly this parcours is determined by so few stages the stars have to align anyway. Solid decision, lame excuse.

that's right! Contador did the same in 2011 and 2015 and won both times the giro

I always thought that Alberto could have won the Giro and the Tour in 2011 if he didn't waste a lot of his energy in Italy. He had the race won very early and should have just managed his efforts. Instead he kept riding agressively and came fatigued at the Tour.

1/3 of the truth. He also crashed a fair amount in that Tour, but despite those two things, the Giro would have taken its toll regardless. I very much doubt he would've won even if he had ridden conservatively.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/quintana-i-live-for-the-challenge/
Very promising article. I can't help to but think about how much praise Alberto got for doing the double while Quintana doesn't. Here he speaks about respect and history of the Giro and why it is so important for him to race it and why challenges like that motivates him.

 

[Jspear]

Re: Re:

1/3 of the truth. He also crashed a fair amount in that Tour, but despite those two things, the Giro would have taken its toll regardless. I very much doubt he would've won even if he had ridden conservatively.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/quintana-i-live-for-the-challenge/
Very promising article. I can't help to but think about how much praise Alberto got for doing the double while Quintana doesn't. Here he speaks about respect and history of the Giro and why it is so important for him to race it and why challenges like that motivates him.

Perhaps it's cause AC had already won the Tour.

I personally am just glad to see a stellar field riding the Giro. Quintana will only make it better. Gonna be good.

 

[Jelantik]

I applauded Quintana for having the balls to take Giro-Tour double. He is young and he has won the Giro and the Vuelta. He can win TDF someday or maybe this year. When Contador tried his double, he probably calculated that his strong opponent will be Aru. But turnout it was the Landa and the rest of Astana team that emptied him. This year Giro, the contender is twice harder than 2015 Contador's attempt. So the risk is, he is being pushed to dig too deep that he won't be able to recover enough for the Tour. Unless if he plans to give it as much to be able to win it, or podium is good, then he might keep his form for TDF. Either way, I still applaud him to take a risk. I can wait to see the Giro.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

1/3 of the truth. He also crashed a fair amount in that Tour, but despite those two things, the Giro would have taken its toll regardless. I very much doubt he would've won even if he had ridden conservatively.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/quintana-i-live-for-the-challenge/
Very promising article. I can't help to but think about how much praise Alberto got for doing the double while Quintana doesn't. Here he speaks about respect and history of the Giro and why it is so important for him to race it and why challenges like that motivates him.

Perhaps it's cause AC had already won the Tour.

I personally am just glad to see a stellar field riding the Giro. Quintana will only make it better. Gonna be good.

What does it matter whether one already has won the Tour? I'd even say its an argument in Quintana's favour if anything that he hasn't won it, yet still rides the Giro. Its just bias, thats all.

 

[Netserk]

In 2010, before the ban was announced, he said his target was to win all GTs in the same year, after having won the Tour the last three times he had ridden it. In other ways, he risked a certain Tour win, when he planned to ride the Giro in 2011. He actually had something to lose. What does Nairo have to lose now? A 2nd place... That's the difference.

 

[movingtarget]

Re:

In 2010, before the ban was announced, he said his target was to win all GTs in the same year, after having won the Tour the last three times he had ridden it. In other ways, he risked a certain Tour win, when he planned to ride the Giro in 2011. He actually had something to lose. What does Nairo have to lose now? A 2nd place... That's the difference.

Maybe even a third place !