- Dec 30, 2009
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FWIW, Nairo's betting odds have not really changed that much after today. Looking at odds checker, he is still odds on favourite with every bookie offering a price...I know it means little but as a gambler I like to check these things!! And of course there is the old adage, a bookie is rarely wrong
- Aug 31, 2012
- 7,550
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On Betfair:
I'm guessing the peak was a Blockhaus overreaction
Will be interesting to see how things change, whether Movistar not attempting (or succeeding with) the coup de grace on Tom on some stages will lead to Quintana becoming less likely to win.
Some are saying even tomorrow is such a stage, don't think I agree with that
I'm guessing the peak was a Blockhaus overreaction
Will be interesting to see how things change, whether Movistar not attempting (or succeeding with) the coup de grace on Tom on some stages will lead to Quintana becoming less likely to win.
Some are saying even tomorrow is such a stage, don't think I agree with that
- Feb 20, 2012
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- 44,328
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Quintana is still free EV thoferryman said:FWIW, Nairo's betting odds have not really changed that much after today. Looking at odds checker, he is still odds on favourite with every bookie offering a price...I know it means little but as a gambler I like to check these things!! And of course there is the old adage, a bookie is rarely wrong
- Feb 20, 2012
- 53,943
- 44,328
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Re:
I'd wait, have a small crack at Oropa, have put guys in breakaway + attack on Stelvio, and then decide further.
Even the stage to Canizei is a stage for Quintana to try and create some carnage. I actually think that's a better stage for Quintana than Monte Grappa.
Tomorrow is not such a stage. Dumoulin will be glued to the wheel of Quintana, and the climbs aren't remotely hard enough for Quintana to do anything. If anything they suit Dumoulin more.SeriousSam said:
I'd wait, have a small crack at Oropa, have put guys in breakaway + attack on Stelvio, and then decide further.
Even the stage to Canizei is a stage for Quintana to try and create some carnage. I actually think that's a better stage for Quintana than Monte Grappa.
Re: Re:
Nibali and Tom D. might try something together maybe.
Though Quintana, with Amador in front, can and will prevent any descent attacks tomorrow.
sir fly said:
Nibali and Tom D. might try something together maybe.
Though Quintana, with Amador in front, can and will prevent any descent attacks tomorrow.
- Apr 16, 2009
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Tomorrows stage looks uncontrollable. Precisely because of the power climbs where everybody has a chance.Red Rick said:
- Feb 20, 2012
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The stage is an opportunity, for most teams but Movistar.
A lof of climbins is shallow enough to not be selective enough. If Dumoulin sticks to Quintana's wheel hard enough I think Movistar will bring the other dangerous breaks backEscarabajo said:
The stage is an opportunity, for most teams but Movistar.
- Nov 7, 2010
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I wonder if Movistar might do something a bit more subtle though - playing the longer game tomorrow. Not try to attack and gain time on Dumoulin - which would be tough with that parcours. But driving the peloton up the climbs and constantly varying the pace almost riding over/under threshold intervals. Kind of like Armstrong used to get his Postal train to do against Ullrich. And banking on the fact that this is going to weaken Dumoulin long-term and undermine his recovery more, than if they just ride steady at threshold.Red Rick said:
- Apr 16, 2009
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Movistar need to hit Dumoulin every chance they have in order to compromise his recovery on the third week. I don't agree on the waiting game. Might be too dangerous.
Any help from his team and other teams to Dumoulin and Quintana's Giro victory can be compromised. That's why they need to hit Dumo on every opportunity they have so that his recovery on the third week will be weakened.
Any help from his team and other teams to Dumoulin and Quintana's Giro victory can be compromised. That's why they need to hit Dumo on every opportunity they have so that his recovery on the third week will be weakened.
- Nov 7, 2010
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That is kind of exactly what climbing domestiques do. Go well above their threshold for a relatively short time (unless they are SKy in the Tour), to keep the pace uncomfortable for their leader's rivals. And Dumoulin is a rider who will suffer more from changes of pace than Quintana - so it's a decent way to use the team, even if there are no immediate results.
Well yeah, but the climbs have long sections at 6-7% with shorter 100m or 200m sections at 10%. Plenty enough for a good domestique (like Movistars) to lift the tempo really high - going into their Vo2 or anaerobic zone, for maybe two or three times before peeling off. Especially guys like Anacona or Herrada.Red Rick said:
That is kind of exactly what climbing domestiques do. Go well above their threshold for a relatively short time (unless they are SKy in the Tour), to keep the pace uncomfortable for their leader's rivals. And Dumoulin is a rider who will suffer more from changes of pace than Quintana - so it's a decent way to use the team, even if there are no immediate results.
waiting for stelvio-umbrail stage is simply stupid. it's a single day, anything can happen and even quintana may not be scary strong when it comes. so the second quite early move on oropa incoming.
- Apr 2, 2009
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Thinking about the economy of the course and Quintana-Dumo-Pinot-Nibali's performances, it appears that Quintana in needing to be very aggressive on Blockhaus, because he has to put time into his rivals considering the TTs, burned a match that resulted in his sub-par performance in the tt. Similarly Pinot was too aggressive on Blockhaus, which cost him two matches in the TT. Nibali burned slowly and faded on Blockhaus, but never ignited the race himself on the climb, which seems to have allowed him a good recovery and a hot burn in the tt. Dumo, by contrast, burned slowly and never faded on Blockhaus and thus was recovered optimally for the tt, where he scorched the course. In the final analysis Dumo, tactically and managing effort wise, was the most brilliant of them all. If he can keep that up, which of course will become increasingly more difficult as the race progresses (especially in the absence of Keldermann), he will be a tough nut to crack before Milan, where on the last stage he is decidedly advantaged.
- May 11, 2013
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Quintana won his 2 GTs largely by taking advantage of situations created by others, first the red flag confusion and following Rolland downhill on Stelvio and in Vuelta last year following Contador's attack from the beginning of stage 15. Maybe I'm wrong but not expecting him to have any initiative though he can read well opportunities created by others. Dumoulin needs to be dispatched rather sooner than later.
- Jul 25, 2012
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Quintana has put himself in the "Sagan" position in this race. He's gone out and openly stated he's going to go for the win and then the Tour win, setting himself as the benchmark. He's now in the incredibly difficult position of having to put a huge amount of time into TD, but also having to put time into Nibali and Mollema as both are within the time they will likely take from him on the final TT. This possibly even applies to Pinot if yesterday was an off day. TD, on the other hand, can let 4 of them take time out of him as long as he manages the loses well, knowing that he is likely to put at least 1 1/2 minutes or more into each of them. Quintana can't put all his chips on Stelvio, even if he manages to crack TD he could end up dragging NIbali, Mollema and Pinot with him to the finish. He needs to take time everywhere he can, even a handful of seconds here and there to keep chipping away at that lead.
Quintana is capable, and there are enough stages left where he can take time, but I think it's going to be really hard if TD doesn't crack. Having said that, I think TD will crack at some point, but we shall see.
Quintana is capable, and there are enough stages left where he can take time, but I think it's going to be really hard if TD doesn't crack. Having said that, I think TD will crack at some point, but we shall see.
- Jul 10, 2009
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Totally agreed, sorry I have not seen the smarts or the initiative to change a race from Quintana. He also does not have a killer move the fast Froome acceleration. I really thought he had this race sown up because of what i have seen all season but Dumoulin fight back to limit the MTF loss to 30secs and the ITT crushing made me think otherwise, he came to win.
But one thing Quintana has is a super team, a Sky V2, so we will see...
Rollthedice said:
Totally agreed, sorry I have not seen the smarts or the initiative to change a race from Quintana. He also does not have a killer move the fast Froome acceleration. I really thought he had this race sown up because of what i have seen all season but Dumoulin fight back to limit the MTF loss to 30secs and the ITT crushing made me think otherwise, he came to win.
But one thing Quintana has is a super team, a Sky V2, so we will see...
- Aug 31, 2012
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You really think Nibali blowing up and then fighting to limit the damage is a way of riding the climb that has him, everything else equal, recover better, with a rest day in between than Pinot and Quintana?
I highly doubt much of the variation in TT times is caused by the evenness with which they did Blockhaus
rhubroma said:
You really think Nibali blowing up and then fighting to limit the damage is a way of riding the climb that has him, everything else equal, recover better, with a rest day in between than Pinot and Quintana?
I highly doubt much of the variation in TT times is caused by the evenness with which they did Blockhaus
- Apr 2, 2009
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No what I meant was that Nibali wasn't overzealous (as, I believe, Pinot was), but was simply pushed harder than he could respond. There can be a big difference as far as recovery and regaining brilliance is concerned, to varying extents, between killing yourself trying to drop others and being dropped while trying to follow. Often someone in Nibali's position, especially before late in the GT, can actually come out with better legs for a subsequent TT, than the ones who did all the attacking to drop him (Quintana and Pinot). Whereas Dumo managed himself the best. In fact Nibali probably should have stayed with Dumo and Mollema, instead of trying to go with Quintana and Pinot. A climb in progression that is. He may have only lost 30 seconds, not the minute he did on Blockhaus.
It's not a mathematical given, but I think Quintana and Pinot paid for their efforts to win the stage on Blockhaus in the TT, more than Nibali who couldn't follow. Quintana had no other reason than to drop them naturally, though Pinot would have done well to settle down, ridden more defensively rather than trying to drop Quintana.
In any case, Dumo played it perfectly to have the best legs for the TT. So no the "evenness" as you called it of his pace, never allowing himself to be put into the red by others, nor doing so to himself, was absolutely the best way to manage himself on Blockhaus to have the best legs in the TT. The bonus was that, in any case, he was flying for a guy his weight on Blockhaus.
SeriousSam said:
No what I meant was that Nibali wasn't overzealous (as, I believe, Pinot was), but was simply pushed harder than he could respond. There can be a big difference as far as recovery and regaining brilliance is concerned, to varying extents, between killing yourself trying to drop others and being dropped while trying to follow. Often someone in Nibali's position, especially before late in the GT, can actually come out with better legs for a subsequent TT, than the ones who did all the attacking to drop him (Quintana and Pinot). Whereas Dumo managed himself the best. In fact Nibali probably should have stayed with Dumo and Mollema, instead of trying to go with Quintana and Pinot. A climb in progression that is. He may have only lost 30 seconds, not the minute he did on Blockhaus.
It's not a mathematical given, but I think Quintana and Pinot paid for their efforts to win the stage on Blockhaus in the TT, more than Nibali who couldn't follow. Quintana had no other reason than to drop them naturally, though Pinot would have done well to settle down, ridden more defensively rather than trying to drop Quintana.
In any case, Dumo played it perfectly to have the best legs for the TT. So no the "evenness" as you called it of his pace, never allowing himself to be put into the red by others, nor doing so to himself, was absolutely the best way to manage himself on Blockhaus to have the best legs in the TT. The bonus was that, in any case, he was flying for a guy his weight on Blockhaus.
- Apr 16, 2009
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Quintana playing the waiting game. I guess he had a reason today with Amador in the lead group.
He using his calculator again. I guess he believes that Dumoulin is not Froome. He could be right. Let's see.
He using his calculator again. I guess he believes that Dumoulin is not Froome. He could be right. Let's see.
- Feb 18, 2015
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Well Movistar was actually very aggressive but Amadors gap ended up too small to really have a big impact on the gc, but also too big to let it go to waste and attack with Quintana. I think they did everything right but after the first climb the race just really didn't go in their favor. Imagine the front group would have cooperated well, and the Sunweb guys who dropped on the first climb wouldn't have come back. Amador could have gained minutesEscarabajo said:
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