Teams & Riders Nairo Quintana discussion thread

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

It would be stupid if they weren't co-leading going into the race, especially if they only played Quintana's hand. I can't realistically see where he would gain that much time (if any) on Froome and Sky tbh. The high mountains are few and far between, Valverde has a better shot of winning because of his great versatility, I think.

How many more shots at GT we give Valverde?

I guess as long as he continues to earn them, by being the best stage racer in the world so far this year.

 

[Escarabajo]

I think he came under raced on purpose. But now is paying for it. But I think it was a risk that Him and Eusebio knew it could happen.

 

[capuldemetal]

:twisted: :twisted: until he retires but a tour with 10(ten) flat stages and only mtf can be considered difficult? it's other speed.another level of awarness ..but can be that difficult?

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

I think he came under raced on purpose. But now is paying for it. But I think it was a risk that Him and Eusebio knew it could happen.

He probably did, but don't you agree that it shouldn't be all for Nairo or vice versa, but they should play both cards going into TdF at least? Thats also the only way they can beat Froome and Sky anyways..

 

[saneguy]

Re: Re:

Given nairo won a gt last year after struggling for form at a previous GT in much the same way as he is here I think it's silly to think he's regressed. He's either come in intentionally a little under cooked and it has backfired against a stronger than expected rival or the prep has gone wrong in general. These things happen.

Agreed. Or, maybe he came in slightly undercooked, ready to be flying in the final week, and the crash has set him back a bit.

You think he will be better in the Tour? Just like last year when he was stronger in La Vuelta?

I have some doubts.

I tend to agree with this. I have my doubts too about Quintana being able to win the Tour. Overall from my initial reading this Tour is definitely not too suited to his style. He still totally sucks at ITT (Ok not totally but amongst the worst GT contenders). Agree The Tour has only 36 km of ITT but I think Froome will be too strong in both. Also I tend to think that the GT competition would be much more in the Tour than in Giro for Quintana - Froome, Porte, Contador, Valverde.

 

[Escarabajo]

Re:

They say he's riding with a calculator, but I wonder if his calculator isn't broken. Did they tell him there's a time trial on Sunday? Why did he look so glad on the podium? He needs two minutes to be safe for the time trial.

Did he regress as a climber? No, he was good on Blockhaus, but after that he lost shape. The problem is this is happening too often.

I think somebody like Richie Porte could have won this Giro by five minutes. Geraint Thomas could have won it without his crash.

:surprised:

How you come to this conclusion is beyond me.

I don't have any other reason to think that at least one of them would be a part of the full bunch of worn down GT contenders and the other one would have at least crack once.

 

[Escarabajo]

Fair enough. Quintana-Valverde duo for the Tour it is!

 

[Rollthedice]

Re: Re:

They say he's riding with a calculator, but I wonder if his calculator isn't broken. Did they tell him there's a time trial on Sunday? Why did he look so glad on the podium? He needs two minutes to be safe for the time trial.

Did he regress as a climber? No, he was good on Blockhaus, but after that he lost shape. The problem is this is happening too often.

I think somebody like Richie Porte could have won this Giro by five minutes. Geraint Thomas could have won it without his crash.

:surprised:

How you come to this conclusion is beyond me.

I don't have any other reason to think that at least one of them would be a part of the full bunch of worn down GT contenders and the other one would have at least crack once.

On this forum, depending on personal preferences, a rider who's not in the race or abandoned for some reason, will always be stronger and should've won easily that said race.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Re:

Zinoviev Letter, read Eclipse's post.

Is not that complicated. He and Esubio said why they are doing the double Giro-Tour. People just don't want to believe it. That's their problem.

I have a general policy of preferring the evidence of my eyes to what any rider and their team say about themselves. That's not a "Nairo is a liar" argument, it's a view that riders and their teams are inherently unreliable, both because they have good reasons to mislead and because everyone is prone to rationalising their own behaviour and deluding themselves about the extent of their problems.

On the specific issue of riders being stronger in a second GT, I've heard many riders say this about themselves and a large subset of them thought they were telling the truth, but most were wrong. Riders regularly confuse being better relative to weak and tired Vuelta competition with being actually better. They are just less worse. Much the same is true of riders who say they get better in the third week of a GT, when really they've usually just declined slower. That's why I was asking about the comparative data.

I forgot to mention that there is actually a possibility (5), that Nairo is actually better than ever in recent times but a substantial cohort of riders have made even bigger improvements. At a certain point though that one would have to be discussed in another forum.

 

[deValtos]

Nairo was better at the Veulta than the TDF last year so I give him the benefit of the doubt he can come good.

However the form Nairo has shown in his past 2017Giro, 2016Veulta and 2016TDF will not be enough to beat the Froome that normally shows up to the Tour. It's enough to beat slightly weaker Froome (with formigal type stage) but to take on maximum Froome and maximum Sky Nairo needs his old climbing legs and maybe even a little bit more.

 

[lenric]

Froome is, or will be, 32 this year. We don't know in what form he is going to arrive and, as years go by, the less certain we are that he will be able to deliver a dominant climbing performance.

 

[carton]

Re: Re:

For a rider who's reign in GTs seemed imminent, this one is gonna hurt if he doesn't turn it around. His conversion rate in GTs isn't high enough if he is to be one of the greatest stage racers of all time. A lot of that is outside his influence though, and tides can turn around quickly in this sport.

Hype notwithstanding, that was never in the cards for him. I've posted variations on this theme before, but no pure climber has ever been in that category. The only man who has won more than 5 Grand Tours without being an all-time great chronoman and hour record holder was Contador, who took time on his rivals against the clock in 6 of his 7 Grand Tour wins. The one real exception was in 2007 against Cadel Evans, who he ended up besting by 23 seconds. The only other "rival" who took time against him against the clock on a Grand Tour he won was his domestique Levi Leipheimer, who paced Contador until he bonked on Angrilu, lost 1' 05", and ended up 46" off the red in Madrid in 2008.

The three greatest "pure" climbers in history, Charly Gaul, Federico Bahamontes, and Lucho Herrera (though Gaul, who won more GT than the other two combined, was pretty decent against the clock -no coincidence) won five Grand Tours between them.

Again, if Quintana ever gets to five while bleeding minutes in every time-trial he's going to end up with a page of cycling history all to himself. At least there would be some truth to that myth, the man who started every race behind the eight-ball, and went and went and went until he cracked or the mountains did.

 

[lenric]

Nairo reminds me of Carlos Sastre.

 

[carton]

Re:

Nairo reminds me of Carlos Sastre.

Cuts a similar silhouette. Carlos was a bit bigger and even more reserved as a rider. Criminally underrated attack up Alpe d'Huez to take the Tour. Well, that and the time trial of his life on the penultimate day.

 

[lenric]

Re: Re:

Nairo reminds me of Carlos Sastre.

Cuts a similar silhouette. Carlos was a bit bigger and even more reserved as a rider. Criminally underrated attack up Alpe d'Huez to take the Tour. Well, that and the time trial of his life on the penultimate day.

Yes indeed. That ITT was gold (for a guy like him). He has always shown a tremendous climbing prowess, yet his TT skills always screwed him. Much like Quintana. The difference, however, resides on the fact that Sastre had a more attacking style when compared with the colombian.

 

[carton]

Re: Re:

The difference, however, resides on the fact that Sastre had a more attacking style when compared with the colombian.

Unfortunately, I can't really seem to recall any of his other successful attacks. I do remember some of his more optimistic ones, particularly once he was freed from Riis' leash. Though he did slip away from the Menchov-Di Luca stare-fest a couple of times in '09, IIRC. They even started to worry after that second one. That was fun.

But yeah, Carlos had plenty of heart. I really felt for the guy, particularly after the shots HWMNBN took at him.

 

[Pantani_lives]

Re: Re:

The three greatest "pure" climbers in history, Charly Gaul, Federico Bahamontes, and Lucho Herrera (though Gaul, who won more GT than the other two combined, was pretty decent against the clock -no coincidence) won five Grand Tours between them.

Again, if Quintana ever gets to five while bleeding minutes in every time-trial he's going to end up with a page of cycling history all to himself. At least there would be some truth to that myth, the man who started every race behind the eight-ball, and went and went and went until he cracked or the mountains did.

Ahum, you're forgetting a certain Italian among those pure climbers.

We're almost forgetting that Quintana is on the verge of doing something unique: making three GT podiums in less than a year. Only the way he does it is disappointing. He's way too passive and too easily satisfied with a second or third place.

 

[Netserk]

Literally, it is not an unique accomplishment.

 

[Pantani_lives]

Yes, Eddy Merckx won all three in less than a year, but in more recent times I can't think of anyone.

 

[diego721]

Well, I think that he is in unknown territory with the Giro-Tour attempt, and now he is paying for it, he just doesn't had the legs today, I hope that he realize the he has to show up tomorrow to stand a chance on Sunday.
The form of the Tour will only tell us (and him) if the experiment is a success or a failure.

 

[deValtos]

Re:

Yes, Eddy Merckx won all three in less than a year, but in more recent times I can't think of anyone.

Carlos Sastre says hello.

 

[carton]

Re: Re:

Ahum, you're forgetting a certain Italian among those pure climbers.

Ah, the self-styled Pirate. I honestly think too much is made of him, the myth has superseded the man, but your mileage will definitely vary on that one. But if you want to include him in the list, and his palmares may well warrant it, the same applies. He won twice in a year and never truly threatened otherwise, but for the time he was kicked out. I think he was well aware of his limitations, and therefore often went for stages rather than races bar for that annus mirabilis. But again, YMMV. He was definitely quick up a climb, and fun to watch.

 

[Pantani_lives]

Re: Re:

Yes, Eddy Merckx won all three in less than a year, but in more recent times I can't think of anyone.

Carlos Sastre says hello.

That totally went by me. Apparently his fourth place in the Giro was upgraded to second.

 

[movingtarget]

Re:

Froome is, or will be, 32 this year. We don't know in what form he is going to arrive and, as years go by, the less certain we are that he will be able to deliver a dominant climbing performance.

Froome is different to other riders in that he only really targets one race per year. If he wins the Dauphine it's because he can without killing himself and if he rides the Vuelta it's because he isn't feeling that fatigued after the Tour. What is interesting is that Contador's drop off even seemed to come before the age Froome is now. Contador was winning GTs at a young age and his best years were the early ones between 2007-2011. Interestingly they were best years for Evans as well but at an older age. Evans was 30 in 2007. A year can be a long time in sport but I would be surprised if Froome was dropping this year especially after almost doing a Tour/Vuelta double about 8 months ago. It will also be interesting to see how Quintana goes in his later years after being good at an early age. When Froome disappears or starts to be affected by age it doesn't necessarily mean Quintana will be winning Tours. It's never that simple. Who knows how much some of the younger riders will improve and even Pinot is looking much better this year. I don't think many predicted he would be this good in the Giro.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Good ride. Could be 1st or even 5th