Teams & Riders Nairo Quintana discussion thread

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Koronin said:
dacooley said:
Escarabajo said:
dacooley said:
the biggest issue is nairo should small all other contenders in the mountains to win the tour, so reproducing 2013, 2016 3rd weeks form is what's needed. just being strongest climber is not enough while the likelihood of movistar being capable of replicating a vuelta-esque race-splitting move is very small.
2015

He needs top TT with a top Froome only. If he has that form from 2015 or 2013 should be OK if he doesn't screw the tactics and goes unscathed the first week. I would worry more about the first week than the TT IMHO.
He can still produce a decent TT on that Tour parcours if he is in good form.

IMHO!
against porte as well. the prospect of leaving TTT with a 1'30-2' deficit seems quite probable.
Add Nibali as well. When he's racing well he also typically does a good ITT. His TTT should be better at the Tour with the Izagirre brothers there.

Agreed Porte will have the best TTT and then is also a good with ITTs as well.
Not necessarily. Sky may win the TTT and have a good chance of winning. Their team is far better and stronger,
The only question now remains is can they convert it into a win.
Last time around, Poels cracked early, hence, Nico Roche had to go really deep and cracked on the final ramp.
This is the Tour. This will be Sky A team. Froome, Thomas, Poels, Bernal, Kwiato, Moscon, Rowe....
BMC is trembling.
 
Re: Re:

silvergrenade said:
Koronin said:
dacooley said:
Escarabajo said:
dacooley said:
the biggest issue is nairo should small all other contenders in the mountains to win the tour, so reproducing 2013, 2016 3rd weeks form is what's needed. just being strongest climber is not enough while the likelihood of movistar being capable of replicating a vuelta-esque race-splitting move is very small.
2015

He needs top TT with a top Froome only. If he has that form from 2015 or 2013 should be OK if he doesn't screw the tactics and goes unscathed the first week. I would worry more about the first week than the TT IMHO.
He can still produce a decent TT on that Tour parcours if he is in good form.

IMHO!
against porte as well. the prospect of leaving TTT with a 1'30-2' deficit seems quite probable.
Add Nibali as well. When he's racing well he also typically does a good ITT. His TTT should be better at the Tour with the Izagirre brothers there.

Agreed Porte will have the best TTT and then is also a good with ITTs as well.
Not necessarily. Sky may win the TTT and have a good chance of winning. Their team is far better and stronger,
The only question now remains is can they convert it into a win.
Last time around, Poels cracked early, hence, Nico Roche had to go really deep and cracked on the final ramp.
This is the Tour. This will be Sky A team. Froome, Thomas, Poels, Bernal, Kwiato, Moscon, Rowe....
BMC is trembling.

Sky's A team only put 35ish seconds on BMC's C team. That isn't very good.
 
Re: Re:

movingtarget said:
Son of Amsterhammer said:
BMC to the take it. Sky and Sunweb won’t be far behind though.
Those should be the three teams. Anything else would be a surprise. Better for Porte if Sky get yellow early. Could be close.
Mitchelton Scott should do well if they choose the right team - I worry about Bahrain Merida because Izagirre x2 both struggled in Suisse.
 
i have my doubts for Nairo in this Tour. Plus the Landa - Quintana rivalry doesnt bode well. I'd be surprised if Nairo can manage a Podium place. Victory is altogether another thing.

He has to have a supreme ITT to stand any chance. Of late my bigger worry with him is 3 weeks form. He cracked on many climbs in the last 2 years.
 
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saneguy said:
i have my doubts for Nairo in this Tour. Plus the Landa - Quintana rivalry doesnt bode well. I'd be surprised if Nairo can manage a Podium place. Victory is altogether another thing.

He has to have a supreme ITT to stand any chance. Of late my bigger worry with him is 3 weeks form. He cracked on many climbs in the last 2 years.

He'd have to find his 2015 form to have a shot at winning (Froome or not) and he hasn't been that good since. His TTing hasn't improved, if anything it's regressed and his climbing doesn't appear to be what it was. It almost appears that at 28 he's already started his decline. Now it's possible he can surprise us, but that's what is appears. Of course he may not even finish ahead of two of his teammates either.
 
Re: Re:

Koronin said:
saneguy said:
i have my doubts for Nairo in this Tour. Plus the Landa - Quintana rivalry doesnt bode well. I'd be surprised if Nairo can manage a Podium place. Victory is altogether another thing.

He has to have a supreme ITT to stand any chance. Of late my bigger worry with him is 3 weeks form. He cracked on many climbs in the last 2 years.

He'd have to find his 2015 form to have a shot at winning (Froome or not) and he hasn't been that good since. His TTing hasn't improved, if anything it's regressed and his climbing doesn't appear to be what it was. It almost appears that at 28 he's already started his decline. Now it's possible he can surprise us, but that's what is appears. Of course he may not even finish ahead of two of his teammates either.
2015 Tour OR Vuelta 2016.

I had absolutely no expectations for Quintana last year at this point, but I have now. Quintana has prepared meticulously for exactly this race compared to previous years and solely ridden previous races for preparation, at least in the spring. After that one performance in Arosa I believe him to be the favourite to win the whole race if Froome doesn't turn up, altho a very little one. 6-7 riders can realistically win.

And thats also why it sucked even more to have Valverde crash out in 2017. Yes, he had won.
 
Sep 12, 2016
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alexix7 said:
http://naszosie.pl/2018/07/08/trener-sylwester-szmyd-o-saganie-quintanie-i-froomie-wywiad/

Great article with Szmyd. It seems like Bala will have Erviti and Nairo will have Bennati on 9th stage. At least it was scheduled this way before the tour. I am curious how will they respond to Nairo time loss.
And Landa should see for himself, roughly translated :lol:
 
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IndianCyclist said:
2 minutes down already with the cobble stage and a 31k TT to come. Could easily become a 6 min deficit to overcome. Possible dream over
Depends how the other GT riders go but one more chunk of time lost against better TT riders means it's game over for another year. He would have to be climbing at 2015 level to have any chance of making up good time.
 
Apr 6, 2015
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IndianCyclist said:
2 minutes down already with the cobble stage and a 31k TT to come. Could easily become a 6 min deficit to overcome. Possible dream over
The cobbled stage is a wildcard. Yes, he might lose time, but so could any of his rivals. Luck will be a huge factor again. The ITT is not for the specialists. It will also come at the end of the Tour when he will be stronger than other riders who would ordinarily do better than him (see the Giro last year).

Basically, he needs to make it out of the cobbled stage without losing more time to his main rivals (Porte, Froome, etc). If he can do that, he will still have a reasonably good chance to make up the difference.
 
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IndianCyclist said:
2 minutes down already with the cobble stage and a 31k TT to come. Could easily become a 6 min deficit to overcome. Possible dream over
2 min on who? Thomas and Dumoulin... They won't be his rivals for the win. He needs to look how he stands against Froome, Porte, Nibali, Bardet... and Landa :D
 
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Blanco said:
IndianCyclist said:
2 minutes down already with the cobble stage and a 31k TT to come. Could easily become a 6 min deficit to overcome. Possible dream over
2 min on who? Thomas and Dumoulin... They won't be his rivals for the win. He needs to look how he stands against Froome, Porte, Nibali, Bardet... and Landa :D
I think you're dismissing a man who was 1st and 2nd in his only two legit GT attempts in absolute bonkers racing very lightly. There are no guarantees. Not that somebody will win, nor that somebody will crack.
 
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Red Rick said:
Blanco said:
IndianCyclist said:
2 minutes down already with the cobble stage and a 31k TT to come. Could easily become a 6 min deficit to overcome. Possible dream over
2 min on who? Thomas and Dumoulin... They won't be his rivals for the win. He needs to look how he stands against Froome, Porte, Nibali, Bardet... and Landa :D
I think you're dismissing a man who was 1st and 2nd in his only two legit GT attempts in absolute bonkers racing very lightly. There are no guarantees. Not that somebody will win, nor that somebody will crack.
Of course there's no guarantees, but I think Giro and Tour in succession is a task too big for him right now.
 
Clearly Froome is a special case ...
Nairo will lose more time on the cobbles. He'll be behind going into the mountains. I'm hoping he'll attack long range in the mountains
 
сobbles stage is a big lottery. i still tend to think the 2010 stage could've most likely ended up with 50-60 riders finishing together if schleck hadn't crashed and there hadn't been a traffic jan as a consequence. tour stages never include 5 star paris roubaix sectors, that's mostly soft cobble sections involved, where drafting effect is immense, so who needs to take care of his gc position nine times out of ten will manage to stay upfront and not be gapped. but once any of big guns fall off the bike, punctrures or gets a mechanical, the race is pretty much doomed to go full throttle.
 
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Escarabajo said:
I'll be happy if he makes it unscathed or unhurt. That way even if down on GC he still can attack or show some good action in the mountains.
Actually Roubaix is not the only dangerous stage. All the remaining flat stages in week one are. Hope Quintana makes it all right as well.
 
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