I mean, sure, the inconsistency might be explained by a weakened ability to recover. But that's the part that' possibly hard to diagnose or work on. Maybe just solely focusing on one race a la Gerraint Thomas?carton, I agree the 5% can be significant on a cyclist like him on a given day. The bigger problem with the higher weight is losing his recuperation skills which can be more damaging. And therefore the inconsistency. You saw how Valverde solved that problem during this Vuelta.
The more optimistic case would be that he's had some issues that he hasn't fully been able to work past. But who knows.
On Valverde, yeah, he's been more consistent than ever. But the lack of altitude and the relatively flat last week might also have helped.