Teams & Riders Nairo Quintana discussion thread

[Nacho]

Re: Re:

So, if (or when) Quintana loses the Giro, does he go to the Tour? If The Double is gone anyway will he rather focus on the Vuelta? I think it would suit Valverde perfectly to be undisputed leader in the Tour...

Is there any reason for him not to go the tour? If Valverde is a leader then it takes more pressure of Quintana as well. If he wins TdF then it is a huge deal but if he won't then no problem either.
I mean he could see how he feels in the first mountain stage of the tour and make a decision then what to do because I don't think that rolling along on flats is a problem for him.

Well, I think the answer is "No" -- he doesn't get sent to the Tour. Of what use would he be? Could he help others in their goal? I see him only as someone that others sacrifice to see him attain a higher goal. I frankly don't see him doing too much to help others out.

 

[Valv.Piti]

I know its too early and all, but I really can't see Nairo doing anything great in TdF with the week to come where he has to make up 5 minutes on Dumo. He could probably hang on for deer life, throw the occasional attack in for the TV-viewers alá Contador, and finish top-3. He did great in last year's Vuelta after a GT, but thats the Vuelta and he wasn't in peak shape in July.

Lets see what happens in the third week. He will obviously stick to TdF, and Valverde will get to lead the Vuelta, but yeah.

 

[sir fly]

Not sure the Tour in his program makes a difference in the way he'll race this final week. The high mountain profiles don't favour long range attacks with three GC relevant stages to come.
The difference Tour makes is when to hit the peak. So if he spends more energy than he intended to, he might fail to recover enough to target the peak in July.
The time he has to make up shouldn't change the way he'll race. Just intensity.

 

[Gigs_98]

Well, I think Quintana still has a good chance to do well in the tour. There is decent chance that the time gaps before the final two mountain stages will be absolutely minimal. There are only two uphill finishes and one of them is the 6 kilometer long PdBF, so not exactly a monster climb, and the other one the two step climb to Peyragudes where nothing might happen before the last 3 km because there is a short descent before that. Then I also don't see that much happening on the first two downhill finishes, since in both cases the last climb is quite far away from the finish so I think there is a chance that everything will come down to the Galibier and the Izoard one day later. These two stages are stages which in theory suit Nairo to the ground (Two consecutive mountain stages, both on very high altitude, in the third week of a gt, and the first one is even a stage with very hard climbs before the last one. There could probably be more climbs before the Izoard for Quintanas liking but still these two stages really suit him) so if his shape is mediocre for two weeks but he is then back at his best in the third week even Froome should be afraid (if he doesn't already have a huge advantage, which always seems to be the case).
There also isn't much time trialing so I think he'll be fine. Maybe he won't come close to win but I don't think that was likely anyway, and a podium is still absolutely possible, no matter how hard he has to race this last week.

 

[sir fly]

Yes, he's such a class that the Tour podium shouldn't be questioned.

 

[Valv.Piti]

I don't question that he can finish on the podium, obviously he can do that and as I've said before, Im absolutely positive that he will do better than Contador did in 2015. But its a bit more complicated being this far down, realistically he needs 5 minutes. He should just completely forget the Tour, if thats in his head it aint possible to go deep to the extent that he will crack Dumo.. well, I assume thats how it works anyways.

But lets not forget Valverde either. In top-shape on this route, I think he will be as good as Porte and Quintana (who I consider to be the two worst opponents, possibly Contador, but he will have to show that first).

 

[Dukerojo]

Re:

I don't question that he can finish on the podium, obviously he can do that and as I've said before, Im absolutely positive that he will do better than Contador did in 2015. But its a bit more complicated being this far down, realistically he needs 5 minutes. He should just completely forget the Tour, if thats in his head it aint possible to go deep to the extent that he will crack Dumo.. well, I assume thats how it works anyways.

But lets not forget Valverde either. In top-shape on this route, I think he will be as good as Porte and Quintana (who I consider to be the two worst opponents, possibly Contador, but he will have to show that first).

I think that if Nairo wins the Giro then Movistar will try to deliver the double for him if he is on good shape and then try to make sure that Valverde win la Vuelta

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re:

I don't question that he can finish on the podium, obviously he can do that and as I've said before, Im absolutely positive that he will do better than Contador did in 2015. But its a bit more complicated being this far down, realistically he needs 5 minutes. He should just completely forget the Tour, if thats in his head it aint possible to go deep to the extent that he will crack Dumo.. well, I assume thats how it works anyways.

But lets not forget Valverde either. In top-shape on this route, I think he will be as good as Porte and Quintana (who I consider to be the two worst opponents, possibly Contador, but he will have to show that first).

No offence, but he'll have to win the Giro first to even consider that.

 

[Scarponi]

Giro-Veulta instead if he goes too deep here?

 

[vass45]

Re:

Giro-Veulta instead if he goes too deep here?

Great ride today - should have plenty of energy left for remaining mountain stages. Not sure why dummy stopped for a break before the big climb but Nario did nothing wrong and just kept cool in the peloton. It was always going to be that he took a couple of minutes off dummo in this stage anyway. He should be able to continue on and take the Giro from here

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Giro-Veulta instead if he goes too deep here?

Great ride today - should have plenty of energy left for remaining mountain stages. Not sure why dummy stopped for a break before the big climb but Nario did nothing wrong and just kept cool in the peloton. It was always going to be that he took a couple of minutes off dummo in this stage anyway. He should be able to continue on and take the Giro from here

Nibali still a big threat I think, with many descents and a TT to come, I think Quintana will still have to take a bit more time on him in the climbs yet.

 

[Arredondo]

Nibali will break Quintana. Nairo doesn't look good at all. While Nibali (again) improves massively in the third week.

 

[carton]

BTW, he took a really hard spill on Sunday. So maybe today wasn't the day to go all out, particularly with that descent. Could hardly have expected a better result.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

Not sure why dummy stopped for a break before the big climb but Nario did nothing wrong and just kept cool in the peloton.

He stopped because he had to

It was always going to be that he took a couple of minutes off dummo in this stage anyway. He should be able to continue on and take the Giro from here

Except he wouldn't have taken a couple of minutes if not for Dumo's misfortune.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

Nibali will break Quintana. Nairo doesn't look good at all. While Nibali (again) improves massively in the third week.

You could well be right. I'd still make Quintana favourite, but Nibali is peaking earlier than last year and has a lot of opportunities still to make up time. History suggests Quintana will continue to improve as well though, so I think he should hold on.

 

[Brullnux]

Quintana cannot afford to just try to crack Dumoulin, he has to go for Nibali as well, because 30 seconds is very winnable.

 

[Arredondo]

Re: Re:

Nibali will break Quintana. Nairo doesn't look good at all. While Nibali (again) improves massively in the third week.

You could well be right. I'd still make Quintana favourite, but Nibali is peaking earlier than last year and has a lot of opportunities still to make up time. History suggests Quintana will continue to improve as well though, so I think he should hold on.

Normally they both improve during the final week, but the Quintana of Blockhaus was better then the Quintana of today. That's a bit of a strange sign.

Maybe it's just an average day, but could be his shape just isn't good enough overall atm.

 

[Forever The Best]

Re: Re:

Nibali will break Quintana. Nairo doesn't look good at all. While Nibali (again) improves massively in the third week.

You could well be right. I'd still make Quintana favourite, but Nibali is peaking earlier than last year and has a lot of opportunities still to make up time. History suggests Quintana will continue to improve as well though, so I think he should hold on.

Normally they both improve during the final week, but the Quintana of Blockhaus was better then the Quintana of today. That's a bit of a strange sign.

Maybe it's just an average day, but could be his shape just isn't good enough overall atm.

Maybe he peaked too early?
Also Dumoulin is probably still the biggest favourite. He has 2:30 to play against Quintana and 3:00 against Nibali.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

Quintana cannot afford to just try to crack Dumoulin, he has to go for Nibali as well, because 30 seconds is very winnable.

I'm pretty sure this has not come as news to Quintana. I'd wager that putting time into Nibali before the final week has been his number one priority all along.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Nibali will break Quintana. Nairo doesn't look good at all. While Nibali (again) improves massively in the third week.

You could well be right. I'd still make Quintana favourite, but Nibali is peaking earlier than last year and has a lot of opportunities still to make up time. History suggests Quintana will continue to improve as well though, so I think he should hold on.

Normally they both improve during the final week, but the Quintana of Blockhaus was better then the Quintana of today. That's a bit of a strange sign.

Maybe it's just an average day, but could be his shape just isn't good enough overall atm.

Yeah, it's possible. He certainly doesn't look 100% yet. But we know he has amazing recovery in the final week of a GT - even last year when he was really struggling in the Tour, he clawed his way up to 3rd overall. And with another four mountain stages to come, recovery will be the key factor. Nibali as well recovers well, but Quintana's superior team will provide another edge.

 

[Red Rick]

So on the stage where we anticipated that Quintana would finally attack from way out on his own, he does nothing, and gets all the reward for it.

I can't even.

 

[SeriousSam]

Clever cautiousness rewarded yet again as it should be imo

 

[Arredondo]

Re: Re:

Nibali will break Quintana. Nairo doesn't look good at all. While Nibali (again) improves massively in the third week.

You could well be right. I'd still make Quintana favourite, but Nibali is peaking earlier than last year and has a lot of opportunities still to make up time. History suggests Quintana will continue to improve as well though, so I think he should hold on.

Normally they both improve during the final week, but the Quintana of Blockhaus was better then the Quintana of today. That's a bit of a strange sign.

Maybe it's just an average day, but could be his shape just isn't good enough overall atm.

Yeah, it's possible. He certainly doesn't look 100% yet. But we know he has amazing recovery in the final week of a GT - even last year when he was really struggling in the Tour, he clawed his way up to 3rd overall. And with another four mountain stages to come, recovery will be the key factor. Nibali as well recovers well, but Quintana's superior team will provide another edge.

Yeah, the superiority of his team could/should give Quintana the edge, but then they need to utilize it more cleverly then they did today.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re:

So on the stage where we anticipated that Quintana would finally attack from way out on his own, he does nothing, and gets all the reward for it.

I can't even.

It's almost hilarious

 

[SeriousSam]

Champion's luck