Teams & Riders Nairo Quintana discussion thread

[Red Rick]

Put 2 guys in breakaway, just to put Dumoulin under pressure

 

[Ataraxus]

Re:

I wouldn't do anything today, really, unless an opportunity presented itself.

All Nibali's fans are expecting something today. In fact they will be disappointed if the opportunity will not present itself

Plus tomorrow is a rest day. It won't hurt to ride the last 20km like a classic.

 

[kingjr]

Re: Re:

I wouldn't do anything today, really, unless an opportunity presented itself.

All Nibali's fans are expecting something today. In fact they will be disappointed if the opportunity will not present itself

Understandably. Any action is of course welcome, even though I'm not a Nibali fan myself

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re:

Even on this shallow climb he was able to distance Dumoulin for quite some time and hold the gap so team tactics are definitely possible like Astana did in 2015 Vuelta. I feel like they should strike already on top of the Mortirolo in stage 16 because there are very steep gradients and he can make quite a gap there before start of the descent. These are high mountains as well so I won't rule out that Quintana won't be stronger than he is now on these.

He was able to distance Dumo on the steeper section, yet the gap never grew bigger than 10s, thanks to Dumo's pacing. He closed the gap partially on the shallower gradients but let's not forget he closed the last gap and counter-attacked on the 11% stretch.
Of course, none of this means he'll be able to stay within a minute of Quintana on Stelvio or Umbrailpass or even Mortirolo if Quintana launches himself at the bottom. If Movistar play it smart and Quintana has some luck with allies, he still has a big chance to win. Mano a mano, I would bet on Dumo regaining time on the downhills vs Quintana, and of course Dumo can have allies in Nibali, Zakarin, Pinot as well. So far he seems to be the 2nd strongest climber, not too far from Quintana, so I doubt we'll see a scenario like in the 2015 Vuelta when everyone left Dumo in the dust and he was all alone.

 

[lmrt]

Even if dumoulin looses this Giro by a narrow margin to Quintana, but after performing decently wel in the Dolomites, it could be very bad news for Quintana's future Tour chances. Dumoulin is younger than him and assuming Froome can dominate Quintana in the Tour until 2019 (very possible) Dumoulin will have been signed by a big budget team by then with solid support in the mountains. His style is far more suited to the Tour, well at least to its climbs which aren't as steep as in Italy, although there are less and less TT kms. Dumoulin is a better version of Wiggins: equally good TTist, better climber, great puncheur, doesn't need a team as much. I wouldn't be surprised if we had another Dutch grand depart soon with many TT kms. It would advantage Froome over all the climbers but Dumoulin would be even better off.

 

[Rollthedice]

Dumo exposed Quintana's limitations as a GT contender on a proper GT route with good TT length. It shouldn't come as a surprise that at this point in the race Nairo is so far down. Though Tom performed maybe 1 minute better than expected until now, Quintana must've taken into account what was about to happen and concentrate on the Alps and Dolomites. But I have doubts he can execute the strategy mainly because he never proved before that he is able, by his actions, to explode the race in his favor. This Giro is a true test for Quintana.

 

[Red Rick]

I'm increasingly considering the possibility that Quintana already makes his move on the Mortirolo. Only thing is that if there's too much Movi in the break, Sunweb could chase before the Mortirolo, so in that case if Quintana attacks over the Mortirolo, he'll be alone.

 

[Gigs_98]

People should stop fantasizing about what Quintana could do on the Mortirolo. That climb isn't any steeper than Oropa.

 

[Red Rick]

People should stop fantasizing about what Quintana could do on the Mortirolo. That climb isn't any steeper than Oropa.

It's definitely harder than Oropa. And it's got a 16% ramp near the top

 

[LaFlorecita]

People should stop fantasizing about what Quintana could do on the Mortirolo. That climb isn't any steeper than Oropa.

Should have used the different way from Monno, Recta Contador, that side is a little shorter but much steeper, although I guess it's too narrow to use as the first climb of the day. It's better when there's a group of around 15 left

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

You think Contador would answer the phone from Q?

No, because Contador is spiteful and hateful just like Visconti

Yeah, because that was exactly what no one said in here!

 

[Gigs_98]

People should stop fantasizing about what Quintana could do on the Mortirolo. That climb isn't any steeper than Oropa.

It's definitely harder than Oropa. And it's got a 16% ramp near the top

Yeah it's definitely harder but not steeper. That 16% ramp near the top is on the only kilometer which is steeper than 10%.
Btw, my comment wasn't meant as a response to yours, but as a response to other posters who said that Quintana should attack on the Mortirolo because the steep gradients will be a big difficulty for Dumoulin. (I started to write my post before you had posted yours) I do think that Quintana could already try an attack there but I only think so because it's simply the first climb of the day and not because I think the first climb is so difficult.

 

[portugal11]

If he gained some weight he could beat gaviria in the future

 

[saunaking]

So there is a 20km descent to end tomorrow's stage. If both are descending alone, how much time would Tom gain on this descent just from gravity and mass? A minute? More?

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

6s is hardly anything to cheer for when you lost 24 the day before

 

[Matteo.]

Re:

So there is a 20km descent to end tomorrow's stage. If both are descending alone, how much time would Tom gain on this descent just from gravity and mass? A minute? More?

We need to see how he arrives at the descent. If tom arrives broken or in difficulty I see no recovery.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

So there is a 20km descent to end tomorrow's stage. If both are descending alone, how much time would Tom gain on this descent just from gravity and mass? A minute? More?

I don't think he'd gain a lot on a descent like Stelvio due to weight. The gradients are steep enough that aerodynamics will be more important than weight I think. It's not like a 3-6% descent where you have to pedal most of the way and where the inertia from the extra weight will make a huge difference.

On Stelvio, even light riders like Quintana will be able to quickly get up to 70km/h+ on the straight bits and the lighter rider may even be able to brake a bit later and take the hairpins a bit quicker.

 

[dacooley]

Re:

6s is hardly anything to cheer for when you lost 24 the day before

it's the war and seconds picked up owning to one's sportsmanship come in handy too.

 

[sir fly]

Re:

6s is hardly anything to cheer for when you lost 24 the day before

Yeah, it makes total of -18. If it would've been 18 on the other side of the clock it still wouldn't be encouraging enough.
So, today's 6...

 

[DFA123]

Re:

6s is hardly anything to cheer for when you lost 24 the day before

I think Quintana has his eye on Nibali as much as Dumoulin. Dumoulin most probably either cracks big time and loses by minutes, or he holds his own in the mountains and wins easily - in which case Quintana can't do anything about it. An extra 6 seconds to Nibali on the other hand could be very important if he does a 2016 style recovery late on in the race.

 

[KGB]

Re:

If he gained some weight he could beat gaviria in the future

Nah ,but he is planning be Gaviria's lead out man if he will not win this Giro.

 

[Vroome.exe]

Re:

So there is a 20km descent to end tomorrow's stage. If both are descending alone, how much time would Tom gain on this descent just from gravity and mass? A minute? More?

If there are some tricky curves Quintana won't lose a second, I believe he's a pretty good decender.

 

[LaFlorecita]

DFA, I'm not sure why you're so sure Dumo will either win by minutes or lose by minutes. I think it's not at all unlikely that we see Dumo 1 to 2 minutes down on Quintana going into the final TT, in which case it could very well come down to seconds.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

DFA, I'm not sure why you're so sure Dumo will either win by minutes or lose by minutes. I think it's not at all unlikely that we see Dumo 1 to 2 minutes down on Quintana going into the final TT, in which case it could very well come down to seconds.

Because he's either going to crack big time or not crack at all imo. The way this last week is, if he cracks on the Stelvio for example, he's going to be losing time again on the next four stages - there's nowhere to recover on this route, and he's not Landis. And Quintana and Nibali will test him day after day until he's out of contention.

I struggle to see a scenario where he loses around five minutes in the last week, unless perhaps he somehow holds it together until the last stage and cracks there.

 

[SeriousSam]

And what's so unlikely about that scenario? Seems at least as likely as the scenario of Nibali's 3rd week resurrection elevating his climbing abilities above Quintana's.