Teams & Riders Nairo Quintana discussion thread

[portugal11]

He is kidding with fire...

 

[Valv.Piti]

Very good effort today, good try! This was never a stage to win the Giro, at all, but losing 24 seconds is a bit problematic. Dumoulin did the same to Froome.

It doesn't really change anything, has to go on Stevlio and put a few teammates up the road.

 

[Alexandre B.]

There's no alternatives for Quintana. He and his team now needs to go all out during week 3.

 

[SeriousSam]

Re:

On Betfair:

Hm

 

[Red Rick]

I think he forced it on a climb that's not hard enough. Trying to hold back Dumoulin on <7% gradients cost him dearly. I feel that now everything depends on the Bormio stage. Dumoulin has shown to not only be the better TT'er, but also the better climber if the gradients are low enough. The Dolomites aren't hard enough to drop him early I think.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

I think he forced it on a climb that's not hard enough. Trying to hold back Dumoulin on <7% gradients cost him dearly. I feel that now everything depends on the Bormio stage. Dumoulin has shown to not only be the better TT'er, but also the better climber if the gradients are low enough. The Dolomites aren't hard enough to drop him early I think.

In isolation they won't drop in, but in quick succession it might be another story - still, its a relatively easy dolomite stage considering what they could have come up with, so thats definitely a plus for Dumoulin. Likewise, Grappa isn't hard enough either.

 

[ice&fire]

Re:

I think he forced it on a climb that's not hard enough. Trying to hold back Dumoulin on <7% gradients cost him dearly. I feel that now everything depends on the Bormio stage. Dumoulin has shown to not only be the better TT'er, but also the better climber if the gradients are low enough. The Dolomites aren't hard enough to drop him early I think.

It depends on how he reacts to long efforts in high altitude regardless of gradient. Remember Valverde last year?

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

That will be an interesting test of his character. The race is still very winnable, but if you were to try to come up with a more demoralising way for a flyweight climber to lose 24 seconds to a TTer you would be hard pressed to improve on today.

 

[diego721]

Well now we probably will now the winner in stage 16, the work from Movistar on Tuesday and Thursday is going to start form KM 1. They must isolate Doumolin from Mortirolo pass and Nairo must leave him behind in Stelvio and then fisnish the work in dolomites stage.
It's pretty difficult, I think he would need a 6 minutes gain on the next week to enter the final TT with a chance.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: Re:

On Betfair:

Hm

I'd bet on him right now. Don't think his chances are anywhere near that small. Yeah Dumoulin was way stronger than expected, but the two multiple mountain stages are still a huge danger for him. Just to remind you, in the Vuelta 2015 Dumoulin followed every attack by Aru on stage 18 with ease and on stage 19 he gained time on every single gc contender on the uphill finish to Avila. He looked as if he was even stronger than in the previous weeks, but still one day later he lost four minutes to Aru on a stage which was harder than stage 18 and 19, but nowhere near as hard as stage 16 and 18 in this giro. If Quintana puts Dumoulin under pressure on multiple mountain stages, he still has a decent chance to win.

 

[movingtarget]

Re:

I think he forced it on a climb that's not hard enough. Trying to hold back Dumoulin on <7% gradients cost him dearly. I feel that now everything depends on the Bormio stage. Dumoulin has shown to not only be the better TT'er, but also the better climber if the gradients are low enough. The Dolomites aren't hard enough to drop him early I think.

Yes. Short stage, one climb and only half the climb steep suited Dumoulin. Amador sitting in the top 10 will probably be sacrificed for Quintana. He is in a good position on GC to cause some problems or at least make Dumoulin work harder.

 

[IndianCyclist]

With this result in the Giro so far, it is all or nothing for Giro. The TDF win may be out of reach. Everybody underestimated TD

 

[portugal11]

If he can't beat tom, how will he beat froome/sky in the freaking tour?

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Re:

With this result in the Giro so far, it is all or nothing for Giro. The TDF win may be out of reach. Everybody underestimated TD

The double was always out of reach unless Froome were to crash out or get sick. I like Quintana a lot, but talk of the double before he has managed to win the Tour was a touch arrogant.

 

[dacooley]

Re: Re:

On Betfair:

Hm

I'd bet on him right now. Don't think his chances are anywhere near that small. Yeah Dumoulin was way stronger than expected, but the two multiple mountain stages are still a huge danger for him. Just to remind you, in the Vuelta 2015 Dumoulin followed every attack by Aru on stage 18 with ease and on stage 19 he gained time on every single gc contender on the uphill finish to Avila. He looked as if he was even stronger than in the previous weeks, but still one day later he lost four minutes to Aru on a stage which was harder than stage 18 and 19, but nowhere near as hard as stage 16 and 18 in this giro. If Quintana puts Dumoulin under pressure on multiple mountain stages, he still has a decent chance to win.

for sure, taking the 2015 vuelta as the benchmark, dimoulin will be fairly comfortably cracked on next tuesday. but the biggest problem is that tom apparently did a really good job with his climbing. either way there is a thrilling finale on the line. full gas from nairo and movistar to come!

 

[Rollthedice]

He can still win it but he has to think creative something he kind of lacks.

 

[SeriousSam]

Framing it as the double might've simply been a way to target the Giro without making it seem like he's running away from Froome

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

Framing it as the double might've simply been a way to target the Giro without making it seem like he's running away from Froome

Much like Contador in 2015.

That said, I've no question he will do better than him in the TdF. That really doesn't matter tho if he doesn't win the Giro. At this point, the general consensus probably is Dumoulin slight favourite, but I'd say its more of a 50/50.

 

[ice&fire]

Re: Re:

On Betfair:

Hm

I'd bet on him right now. Don't think his chances are anywhere near that small. Yeah Dumoulin was way stronger than expected, but the two multiple mountain stages are still a huge danger for him. Just to remind you, in the Vuelta 2015 Dumoulin followed every attack by Aru on stage 18 with ease and on stage 19 he gained time on every single gc contender on the uphill finish to Avila. He looked as if he was even stronger than in the previous weeks, but still one day later he lost four minutes to Aru on a stage which was harder than stage 18 and 19, but nowhere near as hard as stage 16 and 18 in this giro. If Quintana puts Dumoulin under pressure on multiple mountain stages, he still has a decent chance to win.

Don't forget that Dumoulin lost 4 minutes to Aru in a stage where he was isolated and Aru had a significant advantage riding in the slipstream of his teammates. Cotos is a 5-6% climb. In Andorra Dumoulin only lost 1:30 to Aru despite being dropped before the summit of third last climb.

 

[Põhja Konn]

Re:

If he can't beat tom, how will he beat froome/sky in the freaking tour?

Froome himself would have needed to be at his Ventoux 2013 level to match Dumoulin today. It's not unthinkable anymore that Quintana actually is facing his toughest single rival in the Giro, not Tour, specially now that Froome is chasing the double rather than Tour alone.

For the Tour, his own condition is the main question.

 

[dacooley]

Re: Re:

If he can't beat tom, how will he beat froome/sky in the freaking tour?

Froome himself would have needed to be at his Ventoux 2013 level to match Dumoulin today. It's not unthinkable anymore that Quintana actually is facing his toughest single rival in the Giro, not Tour, specially now that Froome is chasing the double rather than Tour alone.

For the Tour, his own condition is the main question.

quite difficult to compare as froome usually delivers his full *** showings with a giant help of team pushing an infernal tempo. unluckily strong teammates is what nairo sometimes severely lacks. amador, anakona and izaguirre would better be prepared really well for the bormio stage.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

I think he forced it on a climb that's not hard enough. Trying to hold back Dumoulin on <7% gradients cost him dearly. I feel that now everything depends on the Bormio stage. Dumoulin has shown to not only be the better TT'er, but also the better climber if the gradients are low enough. The Dolomites aren't hard enough to drop him early I think.

Yeah, it was the perfect climb for Dumoulin at the end of an easyish day and after several recovery days. But it's not the worst result for Quintana either. He's gained not insignificant time on Nibali and Pinot. And, like in the Vuelta, whether or not Dumoulin wins is almost certainly going to come down to minutes not seconds, either way. He either cracks and fails big time, or doesn't crack and can ride the final TT smoking a cigar and still win by five minutes.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

On Betfair:

Hm

I'd bet on him right now. Don't think his chances are anywhere near that small. Yeah Dumoulin was way stronger than expected, but the two multiple mountain stages are still a huge danger for him. Just to remind you, in the Vuelta 2015 Dumoulin followed every attack by Aru on stage 18 with ease and on stage 19 he gained time on every single gc contender on the uphill finish to Avila. He looked as if he was even stronger than in the previous weeks, but still one day later he lost four minutes to Aru on a stage which was harder than stage 18 and 19, but nowhere near as hard as stage 16 and 18 in this giro. If Quintana puts Dumoulin under pressure on multiple mountain stages, he still has a decent chance to win.

Don't forget that Dumoulin lost 4 minutes to Aru in a stage where he was isolated and Aru had a significant advantage riding in the slipstream of his teammates. Cotos is a 5-6% climb. In Andorra Dumoulin only lost 1:30 to Aru despite being dropped before the summit of third last climb.

No-one was riding against him in Andorra though. He got a free pass pretty much until the final stage in that Vuelta. Now, he's got the strongest team in the race focusing pretty much their entire efforts on trying to crack him during four tough mountain stages.

I think for the GC, it would have been advisable to have ridden conservatively once he caught Quintana today, rather than push so hard in the last few kms. That kind of effort is going to take some recovery, which we know is no problem for Quintana, but may be the undoing of Dumoulin. On the other hand, he won a mountain stage (not from the break) and the Pantani prize, which is a huge achievement by itself, so it was probably worth risking his recovery for.

 

[Fernandez]

Nothing wrong with Quintana, he had a great performance. I think this stage didnt really suit him well. I still think he can win the race in the stages to come.

 

[portugal11]

Quintana was good today but this climb doesn't suit him very well. But this is very worrying for quintana, I was pretty sure that quintana would win le tour in 3 years after froome's decline. But now, dumoulin (who is younger than nairo) has everything to become a rider very similar to froome and with a team, he will be very hard to beat