Teams & Riders Nairo Quintana discussion thread

[dacooley]

Re: Re:

Hilarious how quickly people jump to conclusions. Especially when he is leading a grand tour after 20 days whilst being far from his best form.

we don't know if that's true, this may be his form from now on

Except he was a lot better 6 months ago in the Vuelta.

YES, based on our expectations and prejudices, BUT impossible to know for sure. in order to figure out it for granted, froome, contador and chavez had to race this giro.

 

[rick james]

Re: Re:

Hilarious how quickly people jump to conclusions. Especially when he is leading a grand tour after 20 days whilst being far from his best form.

we don't know if that's true, this may be his form from now on

Except he was a lot better 6 months ago in the Vuelta.

why say that? Froome wasn't at his best and if Contador never caused that big split then Nairo would never have won GT

 

[lenric]

Re: Re:

Hilarious how quickly people jump to conclusions. Especially when he is leading a grand tour after 20 days whilst being far from his best form.

we don't know if that's true, this may be his form from now on

Except he was a lot better 6 months ago in the Vuelta.

why say that? Froome wasn't at his best and if Contador never caused that big split then Nairo would never have won GT

If Contador never caused that big split, no one can possibly know if Nairo wouldn't have attacked later on and quite possibly gain the time he had to gain to win the Vuelta.

 

[Netserk]

Re:

Well he came here under raced. He and Eusebio knew there was a risk. Had he done more kilometers then there was no need to go to the Tour anyway.

Under raced? No, not for his standards.

In both 2016 and 2015 he only raced RdS before the Tour. That's comparable to Asturias this year.

In 2014 his last race before the Giro was Catalunya.

In 2013 he hadn't raced for two months before the Tour.

 

[Escarabajo]

Re: Re:

Well he came here under raced. He and Eusebio knew there was a risk. Had he done more kilometers then there was no need to go to the Tour anyway.

Under raced? No, not for his standards.

In both 2016 and 2015 he only raced RdS before the Tour. That's comparable to Asturias this year.

In 2014 his last race before the Giro was Catalunya.

In 2013 he hadn't raced for two months before the Tour.

2017: 3276 Kilometers before the Giro (Under raced IMO)
2016: 3793 Kilometers before the Tour (A little under raced IMO)
2015: 5349 Kilometers before the Tour (OK)
2014: 3777 Kilometers before the Giro (A little under raced IMO)
2013: 4538 Kilometers before the Tour (OK)

I think this picture is clear about the 2017 season. Not to mention that they added Abu Dhabi on the last minute. Imagine if he had not raced that one.

 

[Netserk]

You cannot compare the amount of kilometers raced from the start of the season until the Giro and the Tour. Everyone targeting the Giro races less than those who aim for the Tour.

In 2014 he targeted the Giro as the main aim and had plenty of rest afterwards, so he could race more before it than this year. He still raced more before the Giro than Contador did in 2015, who probably would have been better off if he had skipped Catalunya. Basso also raced less before the Giro in 2006.

 

[Red Rick]

February stage race>TA/PN (usually TA)>Trentino or LBL seems the usual prep right now.

 

[DanielSong39]

Now that Quintana has lost the Giro, here is my post-mortem.

- It was never realistic to picture him as a future superstar who would win 3+ Tours and 5+ Grand Tours. Someone good enough to win that often is good enough to avoid shipping 4 minutes in individual time trials. A 38-second lead with 27km ITT is not a gimme but should be converted almost every time, instead of having 1km remaining by the time he reaches the time to beat.
- His performance at Blockhaus was a one-off, and aside from that we pretty much saw the guy we saw in the 2016 Tour. Actually the two performances are pretty similar because he was much worse in the time trials in the Giro compared to last year's Tour.
- His climbing is... good-but-not-great. Obviously he's not terrible but a superstar in good form would have sailed away in stages 16 and 18, and marked everyone in stage 20 while nursing a comfortable cushion.
- It's silly to blame tactics. This ain't rocket science. If he's a great climber, he could ride the Movistar train until the last 5 km of the last climb, put in an attack, and gain a minute every time.
- With that said, the dude has won 2 Grand Tours. He can't be that bad...

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

Now that Quintana has lost the Giro, here is my post-mortem.

- It was never realistic to picture him as a future superstar who would win 3+ Tours and 5+ Grand Tours. Someone good enough to win that often is good enough to avoid shipping 4 minutes in individual time trials. A 38-second lead with 27km ITT is not a gimme but should be converted almost every time, instead of having 1km remaining by the time he reaches the time to beat.
- His performance at Blockhaus was a one-off, and aside from that we pretty much saw the guy we saw in the 2016 Tour. Actually the two performances are pretty similar because he was much worse in the time trials in the Giro compared to last year's Tour.
- His climbing is... good-but-not-great. Obviously he's not terrible but a superstar in good form would have sailed away in stages 16 and 18, and marked everyone in stage 20 while nursing a comfortable cushion.
- It's silly to blame tactics. This ain't rocket science. If he's a great climber, he could ride the Movistar train until the last 5 km of the last climb, put in an attack, and gain a minute every time.
- With that said, the dude has won 2 Grand Tours. He can't be that bad...

Good analysis.
Its easy always to throw jabs at Movistar and play the bad tactics-card, but thing is they had the best team, but not the best team leader. He didn't have it and thats no shame, he tried and tried, but his legs wouldn't cooperate. Will have many opportunities in the future, will be good for 2 GTs each year with reasonable winning chances for many years.

 

[Red Rick]

You don't go from winning on Blockhaus to being like the 5th best climber in the last 2 stages while you're planning the double without something wrong. The crash affected him, and it may have taken more out of his energy reserves than they would like to admit.

 

[Netserk]

If he had pushed harder on Stelvio and used his teammates up front, he would probably have been the winner of this bike race.

 

[PremierAndrew]

Re:

You don't go from winning on Blockhaus to being like the 5th best climber in the last 2 stages while you're planning the double without something wrong. The crash affected him, and it may have taken more out of his energy reserves than they would like to admit.

Pinot, maybe Zakarin. Who are the other two supposedly better climbers than Nairo since Blockhaus?

 

[Mr.White]

Re:

If he had pushed harder on Stelvio and used his teammates up front, he would probably have been the winner of this bike race.

This. That was his biggest mistake, he simply had to attack on Stelvio with 2 teammates up the road. He was just afraid because of Oropa stage, and that's where he could have won this Giro

 

[klintE]

Be realistic. GC contenders rode Stelvio fastest in history. There was no possibility to attack unless you have some superpowers.

 

[DanielSong39]

I think people were expecting (hoping?) for either the 2016 Vuelta Quintana or some mythical creature who climbs like Pantani and time trials good enough to avoid major losses.

Obviously people were disappointed on both counts.

At the end of the day he did not win the Giro because he was too slow. I wish he had gone faster, and he has gone faster in the fast, but he just didn't this year for some reason.

 

[LeoMontero]

First, i dont get the people that say quintana is a bad racer and all that s...t. Men, he is in pink in a course that suits better to a good time trialist. Mortirollo from the easyest side, stelvio from the easyest side, the hardest stage ended with descent. the last mountain stage ended with 15 km extra flat.
on the other hand i think that team tactics didnt work. one mistake that i notice, was in the stage 18. he attacked in gardena, he distance from the group, but instead of continue and try to get to the group in front of the race, that it wasnt so far, he put himself in the wheel of amador, and there he lost what he had achieved. maybe he had no legs, and thats ok. i cant blame him. but to me it was not that, he want to be helped by his team mates, and they were empty. but i think that all here in the forum think that movistar has a very defensive tactis.
all say tom d. do this, and tom d. do that. the only thing that i see, is that he has a superb time trial. i see in this forum, that the most people are fan of time trial, why is so?? i like most the mountain. today the time trial is science, how much watts you can achieve, thats all. we all know in the same exact moment the amount of watts, the cadence, the heart rate, etc. in the mountains there are science, but tacticts too. you have to look the face of your opponent, try, attack, pace yourself.
and tomorrow, he has less possibilities tha doumoulin, but i want to say something clear, in his size, weigth, height, he is the best time trialist. look at every time trial that he race, he is almost sure, the lightest racer with the best time.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

I'm still curious about the data from his Vuelta last season. Vuelta numbers can be a bit misleading because so many of the big climbs come at the end of ___/ stages, but subjective feelings about performances there are much more dubious because the general level of competition is usually much lower.

 

[HelloDolly]

This Giro anyway you look at it is a fail for Quintana (unless he wins the GC tomorrow). This is not hatred or unfair expectations...its just fact

The reason why people are 'hard' on Quintana is becasue he was the out and out favourite and ever since the Tour 2013 is expected to outclimb everyone in a GT with possibly the exception of Froome. He hasn't been able to outclimb several of what have been considered (maybe till now) tier 2 riders in this Giro. Not only that he rode with lack of conviction
We have been for a few years now expecting Quintana to be the only rider who can challenge Froome in a GT
On the evidence of this Giro and last year at the Tour and even the Vuelta 2016 (yeah I know he won but Contador made the difference) he doesn't look like he can deliver .
He needs to look again at his progress.
I thought the tactics of Movistar were fine ...Just they were too ambitious for the form of the leader

 

[hfer07]

well.... like I stated it previously: Nairo's big mistake is to keep relying on a last week deadly- all-out-attack in order to make up the time lost in the previous weeks, but it appears that trick ain't working at all. To summarize- barring a crazy event happening to Tom, Nairito will not wear Rosa after the ITT, and guess why: He simply was not able to make the necessary gaps "in his very own terrain" - the mountains- and there were "plenty" in this Giro- so I cannot foresee any possible way to excuse him as to why he lost the title, since the blame is nothing but his alone.

Hope he reconsiders his tactics for Le Tour.

 

[IndianCyclist]

The tactics of Quintana are the tactics of Unzue. They focused on Nibali. With under training also they thought they could be competitive. Upto Oropa they got their wish. But Dumoulin came with tremendous form but an unknown quantity. Team wise they kept going in breaks for late attacks which then they could not capitalise on as Qunitana was not strong enough. They were served much better with the sky train approach on the last stage. For all the GTs that he has competed in, he waits till the last moment for an all out attack by which time it is too late. Till that time he is opportunistic. His 2 GT wins are a prime example. Tactically they made a lot of mistakes and Quintana being a one trick pony, there are not a lot of tactics to be applied if he comes in undertrained and relies on the mistakes/misfortune of his opponents
Upto now the TDF was more mountainous to "help" Quintana compete against a strong TT in Froome. With Dumoulin emerging as a serious challenger and greater marketing prospect, there is a good possibility that it will now switch to a greater TT kms to allow Dumoulin to compete while reducing Quintana to just a contender.

 

[silvergrenade]

Re:

The tactics of Quintana are the tactics of Unzue. They focused on Nibali. With under training also they thought they could be competitive. Upto Oropa they got their wish. But Dumoulin came with tremendous form but an unknown quantity. Team wise they kept going in breaks for late attacks which then they could not capitalise on as Qunitana was not strong enough. They were served much better with the sky train approach on the last stage. For all the GTs that he has competed in, he waits till the last moment for an all out attack by which time it is too late. Till that time he is opportunistic. His 2 GT wins are a prime example. Tactically they made a lot of mistakes and Quintana being a one trick pony, there are not a lot of tactics to be applied if he comes in undertrained and relies on the mistakes/misfortune of his opponents
Upto now the TDF was more mountainous to "help" Quintana compete against a strong TT in Froome. With Dumoulin emerging as a serious challenger and greater marketing prospect, there is a good possibility that it will now switch to a greater TT kms to allow Dumoulin to compete while reducing Quintana to just a contender.

I lot of people will like that. Also, Froome would lose quite a bit of time to Major Tom in the TTs. Froome will have to go all out to get that back. With what Major Tom showed in this Giro it will be extremely hard to distance him and as he grows he becomes more sure of himself and also becomes stronger.

Only problem is it automatically pushes Quintana, Contador, Richie out of the contention for the win.
But yeah, exciting times ahead.

 

[gregrowlerson]

Re: Re:

Hilarious how quickly people jump to conclusions. Especially when he is leading a grand tour after 20 days whilst being far from his best form.

People obviously have existing preconcepcions about riders and remarkably large amount of them are completely incapable and/or unwilling to interprete everything they (and in this case specifically Nairo) do during the race without the restrictions of that preset framework of thinking.

Today was the only time he deserved some of that criticism. On the last climb at the very least he should have laid it all on the line - retaining the status quo from yesterday would have meant losing the Giro (as is gonna happen now). But that doesn't change the fact that the amount of sheer hatred shown toward him is beyond comprehension. More than that actually, it has been downright despicable and pathetic.

Riders are not robots, no matter how good they are. I think that a lot of the time we just think that Quintana can click his fingers on a high mountain stage, and automatically gain minutes. Of course it doesn't work like that (even Froome at his best has had rare occasions of gaining monster time, even Contador gained less than a minute on Verbier). He looks likely to finish on the podium here, which will only add to his already stellar palmares.

As for the forum criticism; much of it is said with tongue in cheek. It has gotten to a point where many of us like to parody ourselves, and other forum members. "Quintana never attacks" is just another phrase that is part of the fun of the forum. Much like "Contador doesn't care at all for second place", or "Nothing exciting happens in a race when Gigs is watching", it is certainly not fact, but adds to the often amusing nature of this place.

This needs to be separated from the forum facts. Which are things like:

LS loves Fedaia.
LS hates TTT's

 

[wheresmybrakes]

I think the standard of the other GC contenders have had an impact on how Nairo played his cards. Nibali, Zakarin, Pinot, Pozzovivo, all improved towards the end of the race, TD went bonkers in the TT to gain as much time as possible as he knew he was not as good in the mountains (albeit, doing really well). Maybe Nairo wasn't expecting so many GC men to be involved towards the end. They all seem to talk about numbers and feelings and none of them apart from TD the other day have had a bad day as such, just tiredness setting in. Looks like the Stelvio stage hit them all hard and nullified any huge attacks in the following stages, nobody seemed to get away as such later in the race hence todays TT being more open. I do think Nairo needs to be in much better form for the tour (will struggle with the giro in his legs mind) with I think much better opposition to come with Froome, Contador, Porte (who I think will win), Valverde and Bardet. He's done his best in not his best form and if he can get a podium spot he should be satisfied.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

If he had pushed harder on Stelvio and used his teammates up front, he would probably have been the winner of this bike race.

This. That was his biggest mistake, he simply had to attack on Stelvio with 2 teammates up the road. He was just afraid because of Oropa stage, and that's where he could have won this Giro

Thats you guys assuming he could have distanced a very strong Dumoulin on Stelvio...

 

[dacooley]

Everyone sees the winning scenario in hindsight already knowing how the things really developed... I'm quite assured the crash had a vital impact on Quintana's perfomance. Most likely he planned to gain on a minute both on Umbrail and Piancavallo, but the injury made him ride defensively in a conservative manner.