National Football League

[Tricycle Rider]

This is maddening (msn.foxsports.com/matt-schaub-confronted-at-home-by-idiot). The bozo fan who confronted Schaub at his home is a Loser and needs to get a life. How would he like it if every time the bozo made a mistake on the job (and I'm betting he makes lots of them) his neighbors berated him and posted his screw ups all over the internet? If this game is all the bozo has for enjoyment in life he has absolutely no hope. It's obvious he's got no class, and probably has serious self esteem issues to go to that length to make himself feel better.
.

Sounds like this freak show of a dude from Alabama who poisoned Auburn's oak trees. Ugh! http://www.usatoday.com/story/sport...auburn-toomers-corner-oaks-poisoning/2011673/ .

But I digressed into college football again, my apologies. Now back to the NFL.

Right now all I've got is Da Bears (and Smokin' Jay Cutler!) for Survival Football, and overall picks as well. (Last week I didn't do so well overall, only 7/15.)

PS - No BYEs yet... what's up with all these Thursday games? I must admit, I don't pay much attention to the pre-season, nor NFL news. (Unless the latter has to do with player safety and concussions, and such.)

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Expanding the NFL playoffs is a short sighted plan, filled by no more than greed. And it won't increase competitiveness, like Goddell says. That's idiotic. We'll end up with a 7-9 team in the Superbowl, just like Foxxy predicts.

Having games in London isn't a bad idea, as long as it can fit in with the off/bye week.

NYG@CHI - Eli was saying this week on radio he feels he's playing well. Giants drop to 0-6 with his "well" playing.
GB@BAL - Without Matthews, Packers still better.
CIN@BUF - Bengals roll.
DET@CLE - Close game, went with home team. Browns win 4 in a row.
STL@HOU - Shaub will bounce back.
OAK@KC - May be close actually.
CAR@MIN - Went with home team, though Panthers have more talent.
PIT@NYJ - Jets playing better, but Steelers better than record.
PHI@TB - Eagles slowly improve against hapless TB.
JAX@DEN - Will they cover the 28 pt spread is the only question.
TEN@SEA - No locker, Tenn won't move ball enough.
NO@NE - Very tough game to pick, but NO solid on both sides of ball. Pats still injured.
ARI@SF - 49ers keep rolling.
WAS@DAL - Only Romo could lose this...
IND@SD - Colts hot, but could actually lose this to a streaky Charger team at home.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

I agree expanding playoffs is bad idea. It will just mean another game I won't watch. And I watch enough as is. Another way to look at it: currently 12 of 32 teams make playoffs = 37% of league's teams; expanded playoff means 14 of 32 teams make playoffs = 44% of the league's teams. So, with expanded playoff to 14 teams, almost half the league makes playoffs, which diminishes the value of the regular season.

 

[Amsterhammer]

NYG@CHI - 0-6 looming.
GB@BAL - Will be very close but I'll stick with my 'other' team.
CIN@BUF - Bengals to continue roll.
DET@CLE - still not impressed by these Lions
STL@HOU - Another hard one.
OAK@KC - KC on a roll.
CAR@MIN - Could go either way, I'll go with home advantage.
PIT@NYJ - Jets surprised me last week, can they do it again?
PHI@TB - Even these Iggles should be too good for poor old TB.
JAX@DEN - Will they hit 50 again?
TEN@SEA - Hawks to bounce back.
NO@NE - Very tough game to pick, I'm preferring Brees to Brady.
ARI@SF - Safe home win (?)
WAS@DAL - The only way my Skins can win this on current form is 1. if they concede way under 50 points and 2. if Romo saves them with a miracle **** up late in a close game, but I don't see either of those happening.
IND@SD - I'm never picking Sandy Eggo again. Ever.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Not completely confident in two of my picks.

If Gronk and Amondela both play and are healthy for NE, I like the Pats at home. Brady doesn't lose often at home, and while the Saints are good and 5-0, they could easily be 3-2. But Brees is so special, better than he gets credit for. Hard pick.

I also think the Steelers have a very good chance of upending the Jets. The Steelers are healing, and I think Geno is going to have a hard time against Polomulu and the old guard.

Excellent report from Frontline on the NFL's medical concussion issue. Paints the NFL in a rather tough light, like a giant bully who is never wrong, and that the players may have gotten the short end of the deal. Especially as the NFL knew about health issues (or had a very, very strong suspicion) for years. But by settling, it was a humanitarian gesture, as it could have dragged out so long that many of the players who need help now and are suing, could have wound up dead.

Word is ESPN was going to run almost the same story, but the NFL made some phone calls and ESPN buckled under pressure. That's pretty amazing because ESPN is owned by Disney (who also owns ABC and many others). Disney is worth more than the NFL. But it shows the NFL's muscle (and attitude).

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

The bullying sounds like or reminds of Liestrong.

 

[Tricycle Rider]

Excellent report from Frontline on the NFL's medical concussion issue. Paints the NFL in a rather tough light, like a giant bully who is never wrong, and that the players may have gotten the short end of the deal. Especially as the NFL knew about health issues (or had a very, very strong suspicion) for years. But by settling, it was a humanitarian gesture, as it could have dragged out so long that many of the players who need help now and are suing, could have wound up dead.

Word is ESPN was going to run almost the same story, but the NFL made some phone calls and ESPN buckled under pressure. That's pretty amazing because ESPN is owned by Disney (who also owns ABC and many others). Disney is worth more than the NFL. But it shows the NFL's muscle (and attitude).

I watched the program yesterday online, I had already seen prior programs on concussions in football, so I didn't learn much of anything new. But it's still a good and concise program, primarily because it details just how much the NFL did know and had denied.

I don't foresee football going out of style anytime soon, for one because there's just too much money involved, and two, football is just so culturally ingrained that it would take decades for its popularity to wane. However, I would not be surprised if some parents become more hesitant to let their kids partake in football.

On a sidenote -what the heck is going on with the Giants?? I'm glad da Bears won, but I'm still shocked at how bad the Giants are this year. (Also, still have to do my other picks.)

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Eli laid another turd for the Giants. Three picks (should have been four), one pic-six. Always thought he was overrated, over praised. But I didn't anticipate him playing this poorly, making this bad of decisions. And at $16m a year...

I think some of these QB salaries are what is killing teams (and other giant contracts for good players). Maybe not right when the QB signs them, but down the road. They're robbing Peter to pay Paul, because it leaves the team little money to build great players around them. Take a look at a few teams, and their QB salaries (non guaranteed, per year average):

Aaron Rodgers - $22m per year in a new contract good through 2020. He's a SB winner and good, but is he that good?
Matt Ryan - $20m per year through 2019. No real big wins I can recall.
Joe Flacco - $20m per year through 2019. It already looks like the team is on the downside, where will they get the $ to pay for a full team?
Peyton Manning - $20m a year through 2017. If he doesn't win it all this year or next, the team could suffer for years.
Tony Romo - $18m per year through 2020. Really? For Romo?
Eli Manning - $16m per year through 2016. See Flacco above.
Mark Sanchez - $13m a year through 2017. Perfect example, we're already seeing the Jets crumble. Geno and the team are trying, but part of the reason they suck is all the money is going to one player, and a crappy one.
Sam Bradford $13m a year through 2016. Really? Sam Bradford?

Now look at these teams and QBs.

Colin Kaepernick - $1.2m through 2015. He may be "worth" $15m the team is instead able to spend on linemen to protect him, receivers for him to throw to.
Andy Dalton - $1.3m. Not the best QB, but he's generally winning, and arguably worth a few times this much. But his team is solid, especially on defense.
Jake Locker - A breakout season for Jake, making only $3.1m.
Andrew Luck - Heck, even he makes only $5.5m through 2016.
And now for the real capper. Russell Wilson - $749k a year. That's it! One of the test best QBs in the NFL! One of the QBs with the most potential for the next decade, and he's only making $749k a year. A full eighteen QBs in the NFL make ten times what Wilson makes! And some of those QBs aren't even as good as he is I'd argue!

Since you're wondering about Tom Brady and him taking a pay cut. He's making a healthy $11.4m a year through 2018. Less than Big Ben, Cutler, Rivers, Schaub (at $15.5), Stafford, Brees, etc. But the fact is, when Tom is done with his career, the Kraft/Patriots family will take care of him for the rest of his life. It has little to do with money now.

QB salary link.

I'll try to make another post later, showing where each team's money is going. The results may surprise you.

 

[The Hitch]

Great post there alpe, thanks for the info.

 

[Tricycle Rider]

Geez, I just realized byes have actually been going on for a couple of weeks now, and that there are Thursday games through week 15. Can't wait to learn about these extended playoffs you guys have been talking about.

The rest of my picks...

Cincinnati
Cleveland
Kansas City
Carolina
Philadelphia
Baltimore
Houston
NY Jets
Denver
Seattle
New Orleans
San Francisco
Dallas
Indianapolis

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Wonder where each team is putting all its money? Here is a link to am excellent study by USA today. Some teams balanced performing well (SF), some not (TB), some teams with more cap room than others. Cleveland and Miami have some real potential, if they can manage the money right. Even beyond balance, or teams overpaying for underperforming players, or injured players, dead money is an absolute killer. Take a look at Jacksonville. Then look at the hole Al Davis put the Raiders in. Wow!

These numbers are dying for some mathematician to apply some form of sabermetrics to future player signings and personnel structure.

Here is the link to the USA Today break down.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

Great post there alpe, thanks for the info.

That was a great post. And I agree too.

The low salary guys like Luck, Wilson, Kaepernick are in their rookie contracts, so their contracts are artificially driven lower than what their play is worth. Wilson even more so because he was a third round pick, Kaep a 2nd rounder, and Luck a 1st overall pick.

The only problem is teams who have QBs (or any other position) like Luck, Wilson, and Kaepernick (or any player drafted in lower rounds or undrafted) will eventually have to pay those guys similar money if they are going to keep them beyond their rookie contract years. SO, how do teams cope with that? (e.g. like Denver who pay The Manning $20M/year) Honestly, I don't know all the ins and outs when it comes to contracts. BUT it only makes sense ONE way is to keep drafting and acquiring undrafted young players for other skill positions so the entire payroll remains under the salary cap. Here are some examples of players who enable that to happen (CFA # = college free agent & year acquired, undrafted; D# = NFL draft round and year):
Seattle-
- Doug Baldwin - CFA 11 (WR)
- Jermaine Kearse - CFA 12 (WR)
- Kam Chancellor - D5 10 (SS)
- Richard Sherman - D5 11 (CB)
Denver-
- Chris Clark - CFA 08 (#1 depth chart, LT)
- Kevin Vickerson - D7 05 (DL)
- Wesley Woodyard - CFA 08 (MLB)
- Dan Travathan - D6 12 (WIL)

Some of those guys are not really household names but are starters or key contributors.

OFC, teams have to be good in general in scouting and the draft to make as many draft picks COUNT as possible. And free agency to fill in missing pieces. Teams have to be good in all aspects of personnel acquisitions, and be smart about how they spread the money around.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Ol' Tom Coughlin had a team,
Eli, Eli, throw!
And on that team they had a ball,
Eli, Eli, throw!
With a pick pick here, and a pick pick there,
here a pick, there a pick, everywhere a pick pick.
Ol' Tom Coughlin had a team,
Eli, Eli, throw!

(Credit and big props to New York's WFAN awesome host Steve Somers.)

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

LOL. Props to Steve Somers for that rendition of Old (Macdonald). The only thing he might have changed is "ball" to "bawl". But not everyone knows Old Tom was a really bad speller... according to Geico

 

[ChrisE]

I told y'all about the Texans. You should hear the talk radio around here. Check out 790 on Iheart or something tomorrow; loads of fun.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

I don't recall which part you told us about? That the Texans are not so good, or that there are a lot of classless fans in the stadium. C'mon, cheering that their QB got injured? That's messed up, which is pretty much what the visiting Rams players said (ESPN LINK). It's even messed up to cheer or be glad when the opponents players are injured. Radio talk is one thing. That's ok. Cheering injuries, that's not right.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

They (the fans cheering Shaub's injury) got what they deserved when TJ Yates quickly threw a pic-six. The Texans defense should be ashamed. They came into the league highly praised, with JJ Watt, and Cushing. And they gave up 38 points to a mediocre team. This isn't the first time an injury has been cheered, the Aints fans did it when Wade Wilson was injured, and in the post-game Jim Mora (never one to shy away from words!) lashed out. (Video link here).

Incredible win and game by Tom Brady! Amazing! I was in an airport and when Brees threw the Saints last TD, and the Pats had less than a minute, and no time outs. I got on my plane. I sat down, and a guy next to me put the game on his phone as it ended, and the Patriots were walking off winners. We were stunned!

I'll comment more later. Busy week for me here.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

Here's my vote for crummy game of week 7... Giants - Vikes on MNF.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

Report is Matt Flynn has signed with the Bills. At least for a time there he should get a chance to see the field on game day.

 

[HelgeBlendet]

2008: Matt Flynn drafted by Packers. Aaron Rodgers breaks out.
2012: Matt Flynn goes to Seattle. Russell Wilson breaks out.
2013: Matt Flynn goes to Oakland. Terrell Pryor breaks out.

There's hope for Buffalo!
But knowing the Bills it'll be like: Manuel/Lewis/Kolb/Tuel break their legs or something like that....

 

[Tricycle Rider]

I'm gonna go with KC this week for Suicide/Survival Football, it's slim pickings from now on in that particular contest. (By way of miracle I am still somehow alive after week 6.)

I'll do the rest of my picks later.

 

[ChrisE]

I don't recall which part you told us about? That the Texans are not so good, or that there are a lot of classless fans in the stadium. C'mon, cheering that their QB got injured? That's messed up, which is pretty much what the visiting Rams players said (ESPN LINK). It's even messed up to cheer or be glad when the opponents players are injured. Radio talk is one thing. That's ok. Cheering injuries, that's not right.

I wrote this in post 2384:

Houston's defensive backfield will be exposed as it was last year (and it is worse than last year), and their offensive line is no better. And, well they still have Schaub and Kubiak, so that is enough to ensure ultimate failure.

They will get shredded by the good QB's, no way they will get thru NE or Denver. They may win 11 or 12 games because of the weak division, but no way they will go far in the playoffs.

I was wrong, they will not win 11 or 12. My description of their deficiencies remains.

Classless fans...maybe. Cry me a river for people cheering when the only way Schaub's wife Kubiak will remove him is if he gets hurt. I'll tell you what; pay me $20 million and I will lay on Reliant Stadium's turf and let 80k boo me. No problem. This media induced outrage makes me want to puke, and the thin skinned whining underperforming millionaires is icing on the puke.

Kubiak is the problem, he is a weak leader and loyal to a fault, as well as insanely conservative. He is a perfect reflection of the owner Mcnair and his good old boy corporate Houston routine. I know how it works since I am around it every day, and unlike you I am immersed in what is going on in Houston with expectations and issues with Kubiak and Schaub. Shifting attention to fans away from the incompetence doesn't fly in my book.

Here is what will happen. Houston will win the last 4 out of 5 or so because the good teams they will be playing will have their playoff positions sewed up. They will finish 8-8 or something. Mcnair will rationalize it away by saying the early losses were bad luck since their yardage numbers are good. Kubiak will be back.

I heard today on the radio KC is only favored by 6.5. WTF? I think they missed a 1 in front of the 6. Me and some buddies are driving to KC to see the game, and the Texans are gonna get their *** kicked. That's ok, lots of partying in that parking lot I hear.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

SEA@ARI - Seattle will win, but D and OL needs to step (back) up
TB@ATL - The real Falcons show up.
STL@CAR - Probably.
CIN@DET - Dalton not great, but overall Bengals better.
SD@JAX - Jacksonville continues on 0-16 tour.
BUF@MIA - Bills too many problems, Flynn not answer.
NE@NYJ - Pats beat Jets, again.
DAL@PHI - This could be close, but Dallas offense easily better than Eagle D.
CHI@WAS - This is another hard pick, I wouldn't be shocked if RGIII plays well, and the Skins win.
SF@TEN - 49ers continue to roll.
CLE@GB - Packers win again, but Weeden will bounce back.
HOU@KC - Smith had an off week last week, but Chiefs win by more than a TD. Their D is way too good.
BAL@PIT - I'd like to pick the Steelers, really, but...
DEN@IND - First team with a winning record against Broncos. Still...
MIN@NYG - As bad as the Giants are, no way Josh Freeman leads Vikings to victory.

 

[Tricycle Rider]

I was only 9/15 last week, at least I'm back to my usual, mediocre self.

The rest of my picks for this week:

Seattle
Atlanta
Detroit
Kansas City (already picked this one because of Survival Football)
Miami
NY Jets
Dallas
Bears
Carolina
San Diego
San Francisco
Baltimore
Green Bay
Denver
Minnesota

PS - Do you guys fill out brackets for March Madness? I already run a league on another site, but if there's enough interest/participation here I'd either join, or set up, a league for this place.

 

[Amsterhammer]

I think last week was my worst week ever with seven wrong. Hoping for better this week, but not counting on it. For tonight, rest to follow -

SEA@ARI Hawks should be too good, but maybe not by much.