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The latest weather forecast says it's not going to be as nasty in Philadelphia as originally thought. It will be about 20-25 degrees, with light winds and no snow. Game is at 8pm local time.

Cincinnati also isn't going to be quite as cold as earlier predictions, but still bad. Probably about 25 degrees, and 15mph winds with gusts to 30. Plus snow at times. They are lucky the game is played during the day. Nighttime lows could be -20, and higher winds.

Green Bay however now looks worse than earlier predictions. The high on Sunday may be about -2, with a low of -22. Game time could be about -10 or colder, with winds 15mph, gusts to 25, (making it about -35, maybe -40 with windchill). Now, before you think "well, it's typical Green Bay football weather!" It's not. This is actually 30 degrees colder than average for even Green Bay, and will rank as one of the five coldest games ever played if predictions hold.

By comparison, the infamous "Ice Bowl" was -15, with windchill at -48. By game's end, it was -70. Snow and sleet having fallen previous to and some during the game. Making it worse, back then the turf wasn't heated like it is today, making them play on a surface that must have been incredibly hard. There is film footage of guys walking around on the field and stomping on layers of ice.

The "Freezer Bowl" was -9, with sustained winds of 27mph, making it -59 with windchill. The game was played on old style astroturf, which had a reputation of being a very hard surface. Basically a shag carpet over concrete.
 
For now I'll take the Packers for sure because Rodgers is back, and they know how to play in snow and cold weather. (One would think they've had enough practice, anyway.)

The rest of my predictions will depend on this weekend's weather report.
 
Jun 15, 2009
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on3m@n@rmy You don´t have to quit NFL b/c of HFA (there are better reaasons as you know :D). As I said & wrote, HFA even exists (to my surprise) in german baseball where the seats are almost empty.
HFA is even stronger in Basketball, a lit less in MLB. But in the end of the day it gives the home team a good advantage all over the place (college inclusive).

Edit: Havn´t done HFA studies on HS. But i am very sure it exists there too (since it exists even in empty seat leagues), to a good chunk of advantage...
 
Jun 15, 2009
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Alpe, could we agree that weather forecasts are done in grad celsius for the future. ;)
We in germany (& I guess whole europe) have no idea about farenheit numbers.

Edit: I have checked the celsius fahrenheit calculator.
God, that´s pretty cold.
PHI/CIN circa - 6 C. That is already brutal in my view.
But GB at - 10 F or colder? Serious? :eek: :confused: That is - 23/24 celsius. I wonder how football works in such conditions. Not to mention i wouldn´t even think about to get out of the house, let alone to sit in a stadium. I have to re-evaluate my pick maybe. If it also would snow ice, I pick GB 3-0.
Now wind chill - 35 F? That is arctic - almost 40. Unthinkable...
"Funny", I never realized how cold it was actually in some of those "ice bowls". Forget about offense/defense/tactics. That is survival of the fittest in pure darwin mode...
 
Put it this way, it's going to be butt-ass cold!

20f = -7c
5f = -15c
-10f = -25c
-40f = -40c

Speaking of history. Old timers may also remember the 1981 AFC Divisional game between Cleveland and Oakland, with the infamous Red Right 88, where the Browns were poised to win, until Brian Sipe threw the worst pass of his career. That game was -2 degrees, and about -20 with windchill. There were a lot of poor passes, and missed kicks in it. People remember Sipe's int, but Don Cockroft was injured with a bad back and missed two FG's, an extra point, and they muffed another FG try (he did however make two FGs). Chris Bahr of the Raiders also missed a FG. Sipe was 13-40-183-0-3, but even Jim Plunkett was 14-30-149-0-2. There were eight fumbles in the game, with the Browns committing six of them.

I bring this up because there is a chance this is the kind of game we're potentially going to see in Cincinnati, and especially Green Bay. One where teams have a hard time sustaining drives and executing.
 
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Alpe d'Huez said:
Speaking of history. Old timers may also remember the 1981 AFC Divisional game
...
I bring this up because there is a chance this is the kind of game we're potentially going to see in Cincinnati, and especially Green Bay. One where teams have a hard time sustaining drives and executing.
I expect something like this in GB (& in CIN, if the field is covered with ice).
So my 17 points for SF were certainly to high (and the 24 for GB too, of course).
I guess kicking gets hard (never try to hit a stone with your foot, I did it-ouch!). Expect some really shanked kicks and punts. The HC who has the guts to gor for TDs is likely to win. Now who is it? Both are not well known for taking "risks". Anyway, i give the advantage to Harbaugh now. But i won´t change the winning pick. Just make the score closer. GB 10, SF 7.

FoxxyBrown1111 said:
Even if we give the tie game to the visitors, the Wng.-Pct. still would be 58% in favour of the home team
To complete my HFA example... I wrote the above mentioned in my post with a reason (was just too tired to go into more details).
In a game were the home team scores less points, the HFA of course should be less than 3 points (for simplicity, we just leave aside the fact that HFA is biggest in the 1st Qtr). So I prorated the HFA points in comparison to their "neutral" points.

The "Team Joe" home games chart becomes as follows (now I have to go with decimal points, something i wanted to prevent since there are no decimal scores in football. But it´s the only way to make the example work and still be clear):
21.6-17 W
19.4-19 W
22.8-17 W
19.4-20 L
26.2-17 W
19.4-23 L
30.8-17 W
19.4-27 L
35.3-17 W
19.4-31 L
42.1-17 W
19.4-37 L
The record is indeed 7-5 now (58% Wng.-Pct.), the point differential still at 295-259 (on average 3 pts HFA per game).
Interesting (for this example), the record in close games (8 or less) is 3-3. In reality I expect the HFA being also 57-58% in close games...
 
Sep 9, 2009
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on3m@n@rmy said:
NO @ PHI (4th D @ 2nd O, 4th O @ 29th D; lack of PHI defense dooms them)
Yards is a silly measure, and that defence has been on a strong upward trend - 2nd half of the season it's been one of the better ones on points (which last time I checked, win prizes).
 
Jun 15, 2009
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True. Since PHI fields a fast paced offense, they get to defend more plays (1.150 in total, the most in the NFL). They faced 207 (!) more plays than NO.
Anyway, still PHI is only ranked 22nd in Y/PP. A concern. But they are on the way up as you noticed. Good.
 
Alpe d'Huez said:
Put it this way, it's going to be butt-ass cold!

20f = -7c
5f = -15c
-10f = -25c.
If it turns out that cold it will be epic!!!

One question though. How come when you use nice words like b u t t and a s s it appears without ****, but when I spell that way I get the bloody asterisks? Mod perks I guess. :D
 
Waterloo Sunrise said:
Yards is a silly measure, and that defence has been on a strong upward trend - 2nd half of the season it's been one of the better ones on points (which last time I checked, win prizes).
What can I say? I'm trying out hip shooting in preparation for next year's survival football, compliments of the CN Survival Football Commish, Tricycle Rider. :D
 
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leftover pie said:
those temperatures remind me of my last holiday to japan for the snow.

:eek:
What? It´s that cold over there? Try out holidays near the equator next time. Sun, beach and fun. If you need it cold sometimes: There´s always a cocktail or beer available. :)
And skiing you can also do... on the water with Jet-Skis. :D

Edit: It somehow just reminds me of Pam Oliver. How comes she stays young. AFIR, she´s on the sidelines forever...
 
FoxxyBrown1111 said:
What? It´s that cold over there? Try out holidays near the equator next time. Sun, beach and fun. If you need it cold sometimes: There´s always a cocktail or beer available. :)
And skiing you can also do... on the water with Jet-Skis. :D

Edit: It somehow just reminds me of Pam Oliver. How comes she stays young. AFIR, she´s on the sidelines forever...
Most days in Hokkaido we were looking at -20 - -30 (C) up on the mountain, a lot lower when the wind picks up.

I live in Perth though, we have no shortage of sunshine, heat and beaches.
 
Jun 15, 2009
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leftover pie said:
Most days in Hokkaido we were looking at -20 - -30 (C) up on the mountain, a lot lower when the wind picks up.

I live in Perth though, we have no shortage of sunshine, heat and beaches.
OK, understand you sometimes need a climate change. Lucky you.
 
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Now that so many picks got in, I think we should start a playoff competition. We´ll go only by winning picks, but give a little more weight to those who pick road winners (1.5 points for each correct away pick*).
I´ll keep record if everybody stays in till the end.

Amsterhammer where are you? Still banned? :confused:

(* that won´t help me, b/c I am a "home picker" ;), but it´s fun anyway)
 
OK, here are my final picks:

KC over Indy. As far as I can tell, Indy is held together by Andrew Luck and rubber bands. They weren't supposed to be 11-5 last year, they weren't supposed to be 11-5 this year.

Saints over Philly. The Saints defense on the road is only 21st by DVOA, and Pierre Thomas is out. But somehow, NO seems just too good to lose. I go back and forth on this, and won't be surprised in the least if Philly wins, even wins big.

Cincy over SD. I don't think this will be close.

SF over GB. I think the weather, Rodgers, and 49er injuries narrow the score, but the Niners have a big advantage in defense, and are a good road team. Also, if they lead by eight points late in the game, and the Packers score a TD in the final minute, maybe McCarthy will elect to kick the extra point.

All-Pro selections announced. This time, the 49ers and Chiefs got only one and two players, respectively, selected on the first team, but a total of five including the second team. The Panthers and Eagles have the most first team selections, three each, and surprise, two of Carolina's were on offense. Denver and SE have two each.

You-know-who is the first team QB, and curiously, there is no second team QB. Strange to see Brady and Brees not on an all-anything team.
 
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Greetings, I started following the NFL this year. It's interesting and complex, so not sure I figured it out yet. I have found myself a favorite team though.

My pics.

Kansas wins at Indy. -Gut feeling that KC is better, even in Indy.
Philly wins over saints. Saints seem real good, but I have the impression their defense relies on home crowd advantage to be really effective.
Cincinatti wins over the San Diego Chargers. Chargers and sport don't belong together:D To be serious, I think the overall skill of the Bengals will overcome any deficiencies in Daltons play at home over SD.

Packers win over 49ers. This is difficult. SF have the defense and run game perfect for bad weather, but they are a warm weather team compared to GB. GB is at home. With Rogers having flushed out some of the rust at Chicago and having a good run game, I see them coming out on top. With Rogers, their leaky defense shouldn't need to be on the field as much as with Flynn.
 
I'm starting to like KC's chances against Indy, unless Indy is "on". The Chiefs showed them zero last time they played, and I think they will play with a chip on their shoulder. It will be a completely different game. A 34-29 type win.

Bad weather tends to equalize things, thus, the SF-GB game is indeed starting to look like one of those 13-9 games where things like missed FG's, turnovers, and the team that does take a risk at the right time wins. I still like SF's chances though.

Still sticking with Cincy over SD. Weather will be cold, breezy, maybe light snow. But Cincy is a tough all round team, unbeaten at home. My only question is Dalton. If he has a bad game, and Rivers has a great game, that could be the difference. Because the Chargers were a couple plays from being 11-5. Since were talking scores, I'll say 27-21.

Also sticking with Philly over NO in fairly cold conditions. The Eagles won't stop Brees to Graham, or Sproles. But the Saints won't stop the Eagles either. I'll take Philadelphia by something like 40-35.

on3m@n@rmy said:
One question though. How come when you use nice words like b u t t and a s s it appears without ****, but when I spell that way I get the bloody asterisks? Mod perks I guess. :D
Use things like color of text to break it up. That's the trick. Please use with discretion. :)
 
I'll go for

Kansas City - colts

Kc more predictable than the colts who had some very poor performances to go with the great ones. Better all round team. Also 1.5 for an away choice.
If Kc do go through I like their chances in either new England or Denver.

New Orleans -Iggles

new Orleans have lost 5 of their last 6 road games and the one they won was in a dome against division rivals which if I remember correctly they could have lost without some questionable ref decisions. Those motivational talks on outdoor sidelines must really be losing value. Having McCoy and momentum also work for Philadelphia in the cold.

Chargers - Cincinnati.

Sandy has one of the best records against winning teams, and both Peyton's lowest scoring games were vs the bolts (only times all year they went under 30). Add in the Philly home opener curse and the mandatory loss to Washington, I can't see how they lose.

Ok not really but if no one else is choosing them and it's .5 more pts for an away win I'll take it.

Niners- Packers
Better all round team. Cold conditions suit their defense and kaep's ability to run. Don't think Rodgers will be fully in form having only just come back.
 
Chiefs looking good on their first drive, manhandling the Colts defence on their way down the field for a TD.

But a fairly innocuous looking hit and Charles might have concussion.

Nothing is straightforward in the playoffs.
 

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